OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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December 17th, 2015 at 4:31:07 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

Ok, since you seem to think my total win/loss percentage matters: On progressives we made a total of 47 wagers the other day. We won 18, tied on 2 and lost 27. Overall win percentage: 40%

Baccarat, where we never saw 5 losses in a row: 67 wins, 10 ties, 64 losses. Overall win percentage: 51.1%

Overall progressive craps since we started this on 08/29/15: 263 wins, 6 ties, 305 losses. Overall win percentage: 46.30%


Those numbers are pretty much extremely unremarkable at those sample sizes.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
rottenluck
rottenluck
Joined: Dec 13, 2015
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December 17th, 2015 at 4:56:43 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Those numbers are pretty much extremely unremarkable at those sample sizes.



I would argue that my rate of seeing consecutive losers in a row is strange to the point of being suspicious. I will play again in Louisiana in early January, and hopefully, I'll see a really strange offset in my favor to counter act, allowing my paranoia to subside.
muleyvoice
muleyvoice
Joined: Nov 14, 2015
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December 17th, 2015 at 5:31:42 PM permalink
I doubt you will see the exact opposite, random does not work that way. A concept you seem to be having a hard time grasping/ Random is just that, especially on a minuscule sample.
Nostron
Nostron
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December 18th, 2015 at 8:04:41 AM permalink
During the 25 years or so I have been gambling - have noticed way more dealer errors in my favor than against me. Most just honest mistakes I think - a few times I believe dealer was deliberately doing it since I'm generally a good tipper.
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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December 18th, 2015 at 10:49:35 AM permalink
I think I've told this story before. My friend was playing blackjack at Imperial Palace. The floorman for reasons unknown to me seemed to have a beef with the dealer at our table. He was rude, and seemed to be riding him hard for even the slightest break in procedure.

Anyway, it was uncomfortable enough for us we decided to leave. My friend colors up $1500 in assorted chips, and the dealer dutifully places three purple chips out for the conversion. He correctly says "Coloring up $1500" and the supervisor glances over and barks at him "That's $2000, pay him". The dealer points (I'm assuming for the camera's) at the assorted chips and questions "That's $2,000?" The supervisor jumps all over him "Yes, that's $2,000, pay him!" The dealer shrugs, looks at my friend, draws another purple from the chip rack, and pushes $2,000 out. Needless to say, we left quickly.

My memory of the exact dollar amounts may not be exactly correct, but it's close. The point being that the check and balance which was supposed to take place in the payout, didn't work because the supervisor was closed minded to the fact he could be in error due to an adversarial relationship with the dealer.
MB
MB
Joined: Aug 20, 2015
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December 24th, 2015 at 2:51:03 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

First, let me say, either the casinos are somehow cheating (and I don't have a conspiracy theory explaining how) or I have a cloud of bad luck hovering over my head for life.

Back in '09-'10, my friend introduced to me a craps system. Trust me, I'm really good with math, and I know there is never a way to beat the 1.4% hold in craps. It was 20X odds, starting with a $10 don't pass bet and then enough to win $200. Then a don't come and another don't come. Three points, with $780 to $1100 on the table hoping for a 7. I got killed. I am guessing I probably lost somewhere between $25k to $50k over a dozen or so "vacations" to Louisiana.

I dropped that "system" and decided to play for comps. $10,000 bank roll and $2,000 units on the Don't Pass. Either win $10,000 or lose $10,000. Won 3 sessions, lost 3 sessions. Then I altered my system to still bet $2k units, but either win $12K or lose $10k. Over 4 years, I'm down $40,000. The spreadsheet doesn't suggest anything terribly dishonest, considering I should lose $28 on every come out roll, although there has been some mild bad luck.

Decided to play 20X odds again for big money, starting with $100 on the Don't Pass and $2,400 to $4,000 against the point. Played it 4 times and lost $44,200.

Baccarat is what tipped me off. My wife records every bet we make. We started playing progressives last fall, starting with $25. Lose, bet $50. Lose that, bet $100. Up to $3,200. It was amazing how often we'd lose 8 in a row. We figured it out in Louisiana. My wife and I are always drinking, and we usually buy in for $7,000 cash. Win a few bets and then a dealer change. Next thing we know, we're making the $800 bet. The old man across from us had also bet on bank. The dealer was dealing SUPER FAST. She "accidentally" called a win a tie. The old man caught it. I colored up and got out. Come to think of it, this was a pattern I had seen in Vegas several times before. Drinking couple buys in with $7k cash, dealer change, new dealer is fast fast fast and next thing I know, I'm getting wiped out. When the ace is out there, it confuses things and the dealer goes super fast. Accidents happen, but always in the casino's favor. I probably lost around $40,000 on that learning lesson.

So now I am playing progressive craps, starting with $25. I've done the math, I lose 50.7% of the time. I should lose 8 in a row 1 out of every 229 attempts. We have played at a lot of different casinos starting on Aug 29th of this year and we've recorded every bet. We won 93 attempts and got wiped out. Then we won 76 attempts and got wiped out. Then we won exactly another 76 attempts and got wiped out yet again. Total record: 245 wins, 3 wipe outs. Total loss: $12,925. Theoretical loss is $722.16. Statistically speaking, we are 280.47% above target for wipe outs and actual loss exceeds theoretical loss by 1,789%. We're both convinced, if you buy in for $7K cash and play progressives, there is no way in hell you can possibly win even as few as 100 bets in a row without getting wiped out. In order to make things "normal", we should be able to win 439 bets in a row without a wipe out. There's no way in hell that could possibly happen. No way.

We started really watching the dice after an incident in Louisiana. Over the last 20 attempts, we've caught the dealers "accidently" calling a winning 7 a 6 and then taking my Don't bet after an 8 was rolled but the point was 4.

I know my sample size of 248 attempts isn't enough to prove anything, but combined with all the other "systems" and the never ending trail of bad luck along with the "accidents" from the super fast Baccarat dealers, my trust is about over with. I don't have a single system I can point to that's been successful.



You're missing the important math.

The probability of 0 wipeouts in 248 trials is 33.79%.
The probability of 1 wipeout in 248 trials is 36.74%.
The probability of 2 wipeouts in 248 trials is 19.90%.
The probability of 3 or more wipeouts in 248 trials is 9.57%.

The probability of exactly 3 wipeouts in 248 trials is 7.15%.
Elastoid
Elastoid
Joined: Nov 29, 2015
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December 24th, 2015 at 5:56:22 PM permalink
I explain this to people all the time: In Baccarat, the probability of a hand being Player or Banker is pretty close to a coin toss (especially excluding ties). That said, every day, I'll see at least one show with a long dragon tail -- a bank or player streak that's 10 or more. As statistically unlikely as it is for any given 10 hands to be Player or Banker, it'll happen at least once a day.

People who play Blackjack expect (correctly) that it's pretty close to a 50-50 game. They assume that the odds, then, are against their losing 10 hands in a row, or losing 25 of 30, or something similar. They're correct. Such bad streaks are statistically unlikely. That said, such bad streaks happen every day. Similarly, every day, someone will play a shoe where they can do no wrong and win 25 of 30 hands. Statistical "miracles" happen literally every day at a casino, in both directions.

You would think after one or two of these "miracles" people would realize they're not really miracles. Any given shoe, the odds of dealing exactly that progression of cards are astronomical, and yet no more or less likely than any other progression of cards. Any time I shuffle a shoe, I'm creating another statistical miracle. You're just hoping that the progression of cards lines up well.

One of my least favorite myths is that casinos change dealers to "cool" a table off. In reality, the reverse is true -- twice in the last year, I have had my break postponed because I was dealing at a hot table in the high limit section. Why? Because perception is important. Let's say I've just paid $25,000 to a table, and they're running "hot" -- win streaks of 4 or 5 hands in a row, never more than one loss at a time, the right cards just seem to be coming. The casino knows that their next bet is no more (or less) likely to win than their last ones. But now they're excited, they're probably raising their bet. The casino is happy to see them betting more. If I leave, the players may decide the new dealer isn't as "hot" and may respond by lowering their bets. We'd prefer they didn't.

Dealers do make mistakes. I have made plenty. Most, I catch myself. Some, I probably would catch myself, but someone else notices it first. I have, on a few occasions, realized I made a mistake in the player's favor too late to remedy it. The concept that dealers would intentionally make "mistakes" to cost players extra is ridiculous.

The house doesn't want you, specifically, to lose. The house is confident. If I start a coin-flipping game, I don't need to offer one where every time it's heads, you give me $100, and on tails, I give you $50. I'm going to collect $100 for heads and offer $99.50 for tails, because, while YOU could make money playing that game in a short span, I am confident that making that bet a few million times a day will, over time, make me millions of dollars. I don't need to worry about how any individual bet in those millions of bets happens to go. No matter how much you bet in a day, you can't be betting more than the rest of the players have bet in the course of a month. YOUR MONEY, SPECIFICALLY, IS NOT IMPORTANT TO THE HOUSE.

Everything we do in a casino is about making you bet your money. Once the money is bet, the casino has won, regardless of the outcome of your bet. In other words, the casino's goal is to have the maximum amount of money bet during the day. If you come in with $3000, the casino wants to see you bet $3000. If you win, and double your money, the casino doesn't consider that a loss. It considers your $3000 added to the total amount of money bet that night, of which, it will have received a small percentage. It will gladly pay you your $3000, and all they care about as far as you are concerned is that you've now got $6000 they can get you to bet.

Casinos discourage advantage players and don't want to see players who find ways to swing the edge in their favor, but the casino is not at all concerned with increasing the house edge. In fact, the house edge has been specifically calculated to ensure maximum returns -- if it were too high, there would not be enough bets.

One of the games we deal is Ultimate Texas Hold'em. The shuffle machine deals that game -- it spits out the five-card board, then two cards to each player, the last two cards going to the dealer. At a full table, the machine knows, essentially, where all the cards are going, and which are the dealer's. More, at the end of the night, we have the machine sort the cards for us... because it recognizes the faces of cards and can put them in any order it wants. If the house wanted, they could EASILY introduce an algorithm into the machine to increase the house edge several percent, by "stacking" the deck in the dealer's favor. Why would you not fear that machine?

Because millions of dollars of research have already gone into finding the ideal sweet spot for the house edge to get people to bet their money. If you have a game with a house edge outside of that sweet spot, it won't be popular, and thus won't accomplish its goals. Most people don't bother calculating or looking up the house edge -- they get a feel for the game by playing it, and if they feel like they just can't win, they'll go somewhere else. In short, why would the casino mess with a good thing? The rules of UTH already give them pretty much the edge that they want. There are about a couple dozen players at my casino who are regulars, who you can see 4-5 days a week, several hours a day, playing UTH. Increasing the house edge would make the game less psychologically addictive and result in fewer regulars and ultimately less money.

In other words, YES, the house wants your money, but they're perfectly honest about how they're going to take it. They don't need to do anything shady or manipulative in order to hurt you, and they wouldn't want to, because such stories make you less comfortable betting your money. They want you to bet your money.

So if your concern is that there's anything shady or underhanded going on, don't worry. There's not. If you feel your luck has been bad... you know what? That sucks. I'm sorry. I'd say the more often you bet, the more things regress towards the mean, so odds are, if your luck has legitimately been terrible, it won't continue to be as bad. Feel free to continue to bet your money, knowing the odds are always exactly as advertised.
BiloxiBill
BiloxiBill
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January 2nd, 2016 at 7:17:22 PM permalink
I stopped reading after: "My wife and I are always drinking..."
NewShooter808
NewShooter808
Joined: Dec 30, 2015
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January 2nd, 2016 at 11:10:24 PM permalink
Quote:

(Oddly, we barely get free rooms and I was just told to F-off for a room on NYE in Louisiana and apparently my play isn't enough for a Sugar Bowl ticket even though that casino has at least two suites at the Super Dome that I'm aware of, maybe more. Another rant for another thread.)



Quote:

So I asked him last night. He's a very intelligent guy, basically, have his results been anywhere close to expectation? Low and behold, he too, has consistently hit bad luck for YEARS. His losses are in the high five figures, maybe low six figures. Theoretical hold, he might be down maybe $5k at the most. He's smart, so most of his action is behind the line, with no house edge.




I play $5-10 minimums pass line and 2 come bets with 2X odds for pass and come and I got free rooms for NYE for 5 nights at many Vegas casinos (Green Valley, Orleans, Cesear's, Harrah's, Bellagio, Red Rock, Station Casinos). My bankroll is $300 for every 3hr session. I came out positive on the last 14 out of 15 sessions. The only losing session was a $50 loss. I try to play 2 sessions per day. I do play some slots and VP, but mostly craps. Seems like you should be playing somewhere else to get the comps.
Last edited by: NewShooter808 on Jan 2, 2016
rottenluck
rottenluck
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January 4th, 2016 at 1:17:09 PM permalink
Yeah, well if all stories from gamblers who drink are automatic "discard", well, you might as well ignore 90% of them.

We decided to come to Vegas this weekend instead of Louisiana. I think it's time to start naming casinos. Nearly all of our craps experiences were with Caesars Entertainment. The dealer who called my winning 7 a 6 was at Bellagio. The underpayment happened at Aria. 100% of our baccarat nightmare was Caesar's Entertainment.

So we walked down to Venetian and bought in with $6,400 cash. We played progressives like we always do. We also played at Palazzo. We won 38 attempts and only had to make the $800 bet once. Statistically, we should see the $800 bet once every 29.85 attempts, so everything was inline with expectations.

It was an eye opening experience. I've learned to stand as close to the stick man as possible so I can what the dice land on for myself. Like I say, after the Bellagio dealer called my winning 7 a "six, easy six", I've lost all trust. The first thing I noticed last night, was that the Venetian stick man never once blocked my line of sight on the dice. Same at Palazzo. More importantly, the stick man never once flipped the dice over until after I had enough time to clearly read the numbers on the dice. And that's the big, big deal. Lastly, if one of the die landed behind a stack of chips, the dealers at these places would move the stack of chips out of the way for everyone to get line of sight on it. We were shocked. We've NEVER seen a craps dealer move the stack blocking everyone's line of sight at a Caesar's owned property.

As for conspiracy theories, there's not one. It's simply a matter of miserable employees. Misery loves company, very true saying. I once worked in a call center and they treated me like a dog. I took it out on their customers, routinely. I was young and dumb. What comes around goes around. So, my "theory" is that the dealers aren't "in on it", but they do want to pass around the misery. So they're routinely calling my ties losses and my wins ties. They flip the dice over rapidly with their stick, and that slight edge has cost me thousands. It's like risking 8 losses in a row when the true odds I'm betting against are 7 losses in a row.

Stay away from craps tables if the stick man is flipping the dice over before everyone has a chance to focus on the dice. If their doing that, it's an insane disadvantage to the players.

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