odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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December 14th, 2015 at 8:04:53 AM permalink
The "biased dice" path eh?

Don't go there unless you want us to think you are a banned member coming back under a new ID.

Oops, too late, at least for the suspicion.

You can redeem yourself, though, by determining how the dice were biased and giving us a report on how you cleaned up taking advantage of it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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December 14th, 2015 at 8:19:01 AM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I think everyone who plays craps should take the time to read this:

[bunko biased dice conspiracy theory URL removed]

Absolutely fascinating.

...that anyone could possibly put stock in crackpot allegations of a widespread conspiracy theory that, if proven, would not only lead to felony cheating charges but would actually mean that certain craps bets were actually player-favorable. All you'd have to do to beat the game is put your money in the right spot. No card counting, hole carding, or progressive scouting. Just walk up to the table and bet.

If the dice are biased, you have an effortless and consistent way to beat the casino. So why do you lose playing craps?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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December 14th, 2015 at 8:25:39 AM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I think everyone who plays craps should take the time to read this:

(link redacted) ----------------

Absolutely fascinating.


You're right. Fascinating assortment of illiterate deluded fools on a web page designed to sell the idea of dice setting.

The theme continues. Is that a reliable source of intelligent commentary, in your opinion?

Was spamming this site with that nonsense your sole motive for joining here?
Links out from that shoddy site will offer you Dice Busting lessons for just $895
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
muleyvoice
muleyvoice
Joined: Nov 14, 2015
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December 14th, 2015 at 8:49:29 AM permalink
PM me and I will remove the curse an enemy has put on you.
MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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December 14th, 2015 at 9:01:12 AM permalink
PM me and I'll show you how the casinos use biased chips to cause gamblers to lose more than they win.
"What, me worry?"
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
  • Threads: 88
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December 14th, 2015 at 9:31:42 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

PM me and I'll show you how the casinos use biased chips to cause gamblers to lose more than they win.

Did you know that you can tell whether your bet will win or not based on the edge spots on the chips? It has to do with the asymmetry in the materials used to make the chips and how they lead to a financial imbalance. Since the casino has the edge under normal circumstances, any financial imbalance is good for the player. For example, this chip will definitely win the bet it's used on:

See that crooked green edge spot? That's a telltale sign you're going to win. On the other hand, this chip below is a guaranteed loser:

For anyone who is wondering about the truthitude of this post, it has as much validity as the complaint made by the residents of Woodland who rejected a solar panel farm because it would suck up all the energy from the sun and businesses would not come there.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
Joined: May 22, 2013
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December 14th, 2015 at 12:49:04 PM permalink
I don't believe truthitude is an allowable word in Scrabble.......
Just because it comes up in Quantum Theory, does not make it acceptable in Scrabble......

<edit> I didn't know I had to check the chips for telltale signs, no wonder I can't win.....
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 5513
December 14th, 2015 at 2:11:26 PM permalink
Hello OP, WELCOME to the forums =p.

The reason you're finding some resistance here is because many of the people who've chimed in on this thread are quite mathematically inclined. I was hoping MathExtremest or ThatDonGuy would chime in so I didn't have to run some potential Standard Deviation numbers =P. I still don't want to, just yet (lol) but I think I can get a few points across to try to help you understand a few things.

1) As you already hinted towards, your sampling size seems to be quite small. In the short run, anything is possible. If you lose 3 throws in a row, you're 0 for 3 with a win rate of 0% and a loss rate of 100%, which is mathematically impossible (in the long run). You really need to get a larger sampling size to do any kind of meaningful statistical research. In blackjack for example, if you have your average bet, house edge, the variance of the game, and the number of trials, you can easily calculate your EV and your standard deviations. Then, once you've obtained any kind of meaningful amount of data, you can tell with mathematical certainty if your results are "abnormal."

2) Next comes your bet sizing and the word most of us hate, VARIANCE. While your base bet might be small, and in craps even if most of your money is stacked on the zero house edge odds, you're still going to have WILD swings of variance based off your bet size. Your bet size plus the variance of the bets will jack your standard deviations way out. Combine this with your small sampling size and it's not too crazy to see some really wild results (in either direction). Martingale isn't any better =/.

3) Giving some small validity to the statement you're begin cheated, there are several things you can do about this:
- Use the information to go the opposite direction. If the dice are loaded for 6/8 or something (to screw a DP player) then just switch to hard betting the pass with those dice. Basically, as others pointed out, if they put loaded dice in play, all you have to do is pay attention to what they're loaded to and then win $100,000 that night (given your average bets).
- Cheating dealers. This has been done. Hell, I've even caught a cheating blackjack dealer in 2015 in a vegas double deck game (called gaming to report them). Some people think casinos would never cheat, but I mark that up to ignorance. That being said, I still believe MOST casinos/employees do not cheat. Again, giving you the assumption that they're trying to, you can easily handle this. In Baccarat, tell them to deal slower. You're betting hundreds and thousands a hand, they will do what you request. Tell them if they don't deal slower you'll leave. Complain to the pit and the dealers will quite quickly do what you want. Same goes for craps. Stand near the middle of the table and tell them to give it a second or two when the dice land so you can clearly see them. If you're 99% of the time the biggest money at the table, they'll either appease you, or you can complain to a higher up and make them appease you. The money almost always gets what it wants.
- You're responsible for knowing your game, bets, etc. Dealers (intentionally or not) make mistakes. They will try to over pay you, and take your money. You must be on your game to make sure you're not getting cheated. I've been AP'ing for nearly a decade and while I can't say with certainty I've caught them all, I'd be willing to bet of the dealer mistakes AGAINST me, I've caught and pointed out 99% of them. This much is just paying attention, knowing when your bets win/lose and how much they win/lose.

4) Your comps sound VERY odd to me. If you're putting that kind of action down you should be able to get whatever you want whenever you want. Do you have a host? You should request a host or at least go to VIP and talk to the host on duty about your action. Tell them what you play, make them look your account up, and ask them why you're rated so poorly that they couldn't even give you a room, or whatever else you want. One thing for you to note though, most casinos do NOT count odds in craps to your average bet. After all, there's no house edge, so why should they count it? They'll just count your bets that have a house edge for your average bet/etc. Just go talk to a host and they should be able to explain why. I HIGHLY doubt you've been marked as some super skilled player or a threat given the "systems" you've mentioned... In fact, if you finally get a host to review your games/action you might finally get noticed and get the comps your level of play clearly deserves.

So overall, the claim of "cheating" must be followed with meaningful statistical data. Obviously 99% of amateurs that play and lose think they were cheated, thus the only way to back your claims is with this qualified data, which unfortunately (even though you do seem smarter than your average ploppy) you do not have. This is why you got a bit of backlash, but try to understand both sides and how we hear about casinos cheating on a near daily basis.

Again, welcome to the forums. Feel free to search them to find others that have had similar betting "systems," etc, etc. There's a ton of great info on this site =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
rottenluck
rottenluck
Joined: Dec 13, 2015
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  • Posts: 23
December 15th, 2015 at 10:49:08 AM permalink
Thanks Romes, a very well thought and intelligent reply. I am here for my final day in Vegas. I've decided to give this another try, that is, the benefit of the doubt. I'll keep playing progressives today and I swear if I get wiped out again today, that's gonna be pretty damning. Theoretically, I should be able to win 439 attempts in a row. Eight in a row is hard to do but I am not seeing that in my first 248 attempts.

We are definitely watching the dealers. We just started doing this and in the last 49 attempts we've caught the dealers 'accidentally' calling our win a tie once and another time our tie was called a loss.

As for the comps, I haven't even mentioned my sports play. I'm down $83k this year in sports, all with the casino I've been loyal to, on four plays that went 0-4. This host put me in a suite that retails for $99 a night. My wife and I wouldn't even buy a room this shifty if we were on a vacay to a non-gambling destination. I even once tipped my host a $100 about four years ago, which seemed to have zero effect.

The wife and I have decided to text the host next time we come to town with a polite ultimatum, give me the big suite at the top with the ice maker in it, and if you aren't able to, no biggie, we'll just stay elsewhere.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
  • Threads: 236
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December 15th, 2015 at 11:40:20 AM permalink
You mention that you have a win goal. Perhaps abiding by this goal, and stopping play when you reach it, is keeping you from maximizing your winning sessions? Just as you have bad losing streaks, you could also have epic winning streaks, but if you walk away after reaching an arbitrary number, you may be cutting yourself off from the whole "right tail" of the bell curve.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

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