Come bets, when to stop

I am new at craps, and have learned that it is advisable to have 3 total bets max at a time (pass line bet and two come bets, all with odds). What should I do if I win a come bet or two, continue placing more come bets somImalways have 3 on the table? Or, should I take my winnings for each point won, and going from 3 bets, to 2, then 1 after a few wins, (leaving just the place bet) and wait until a 7 comes up,and we start over?

2nd question. Do most people play as many come bets as possible or stop at 3 total bets. I've seen videos where they keep placing come bets until all the numbers are covered, and then they continue to make come bets after winning a pont.

Ideally you want to cover two numbers with max odds and that includes the come out roll. If you hit your number you regress to a single place bet. Unfortunately, in a real world this kind of beting system does not work. 7s show with an amazing regularity, your losses will be tremendous. Most players with limited income try to be on a safe side, in other words, they aim to brake even, that is why they bet pass line with single odds and " inside" numbers. If you play in such a manner you'll be at the table a bit longer with somewhat less looney being lost.

Welcome to the Forum, Ldubs! The "proper number" of Come bets you have at any one time really comes down to personal preference and bankroll size. I would argue that there is no "optimum" number. I guess there is a valid argument for 0 being the optimum number, but what fun is that? :)

Each Pass Line or Come bet will be exposed to the house edge of 1.41%. This means that on average, for every $10 Line or Come bet you make, the house will make an average on $0.14. Of course, you will not lose 14c on each single bet. You will either win $10 or lose $10, but over the course of many, many bets, the house will win slightly more than you will win. And if you add up all those wins & losses, the house is expected to come out ahead by 1.41% of all the money you have put into action.

Back to your first question, the number of Come bets you have up, and whether or not to replace them when they hit all depends on whatever amount of action you feel comfortable with. And this has a lot to do with your bankroll. Craps can have a very high variance (intensity of up & down swings) when you place full odds on your Line & Come bets. And, if you are not properly bankrolled, you may go broke within a few minutes at the table.

Personally, I'm kind of a low roller. I'll usually do a Line bet and 1 Come bet (both with odds). If I'm winning, I might go to 2 Come bets. I always will replace them when they hit.

As to your second question, most people I have seen at the tables do not place any Come bets. I typically see more Place bettors (betting on individual numbers) than Come bettors. Of the come bettors that I do see, the majority have 1 or 2 Come bets going at any one time. It is very rarely that I will see someone betting the "Continuous Come" as you described, placing a Come bet before every roll.

the limits are your skills and your bankroll and your desires.

IF you can't keep track that ALL your bets are being properly positioned by the dealers, then you have too many.

Even if you can keep track of things, I would recommend stopping at two come bets. You will wish you had done this if you get every number covered...and then the seven rolls.

I used to do a PassLine bet, followed by two come bets followed by two don'tcome bets but forum members seem to think this is unwise.

Quote: ldubs

I am new at craps, and have learned that it is advisable to have 3 total bets max at a time (pass line bet and two come bets, all with odds). What should I do if I win a come bet or two, continue placing more come bets somImalways have 3 on the table? Or, should I take my winnings for each point won, and going from 3 bets, to 2, then 1 after a few wins, (leaving just the place bet) and wait until a 7 comes up,and we start over?

2nd question. Do most people play as many come bets as possible or stop at 3 total bets. I've seen videos where they keep placing come bets until all the numbers are covered, and then they continue to make come bets after winning a pont.

depends on your bankroll and playing style. the math is the same.

I used to do either pass/continuous come or 3point Betty. (max odds)

now I just do a single large passline w/max odds.
that way when I hit my win goal, I just leave.

That's just it... the game lures you into making more and more bets.

As you learn more about it, you start to realize that many bets can be used in HEDGING STRATEGIES, for example, a $5 yo-11 bet made on the come-out roll, when you bet don't-pass. That makes you consider making even more bets, and you quickly understand why a lot of players make "any craps" bets when they come-out on pass-line bets.

HOWEVER, mathematically, the more bets you make, the less you win. This is a fact.

There was a really famous carps player, I forget his name, but he had a tremendous run over a few years. He only made ONE pass-line bet, and took his chances. That's your best bet - only one pass or don't-pass line bet, and then take maximum odds offered by the house.

But then when you play the game, as you wait for your one number to come, it seems like every other number gets rolled, so you want to make place and come bets. You think about "HOT ROLLS", if only you'd made those number bets, you'd be a millionaire...

Yep. Its working great on you. THE GAME IS EVIL. I love it too.

When I first played, the dice got on a hot roll and I asked to guy next to me, "how many come bets should I make, and when should I stop"? He said "Oh, I just keep on coming". THE DUDE WAS A SHILL!! Nobody can play that aggressively and win over the long-run.

SUGGESTION: You can get WinCraps or EGamers_Suite, and you can test craps strategies out Monte-Carlo style, just to prove to yourself what I'm saying about multiple bets in craps. Hopefully, while your at it, you will realize that THERE ARE NO WINNING STRATEGIES.... craps cannot be beaten over a long period of time. To believe so is an admission that you believe in fairy tales, either that or you cheat.

The only way to win in craps is to be standing on the other side of the table. That's why the industry exists in the first place... "Vegas was NOT built on winners".

I would say "good luck", but I know better.

Marty

Your post reminds me of a joke that has been posted here before, but bears repeating:

Thanks to you and everyone on this forum. I am looking forward to reading more here and learning. I have always been intimidated by the craps table, but now I can 't wait to go to the casino! I live near Niagara Falls and the dollar is really good right now vs the Canadian dollar. They have some nice casinos there.

Every once in awhile I'll make continuous, or nearly continuous come bets.

I like to take a shot.

Marty gave you great advice though: just bet PL and take max odds, and forget come or place bets.

Heed this: only an idiot would play craps and expect / need to win over the long run.

Ain't happening.see: http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/17147-steve-wynn-never-seen-a-gambler-win-over-the-long-run

Think of it as expensive entertainment, much like good scotch, good weed, or a nubile mistress.

Fun ain't for free.

Quote: MrV

Fun ain't for free.

Are you in one of those upside down beds they had Christopher Reeve in the last helplessly miserable years of his life?

http://www.thesimpledollar.com/100-things-to-do-during-a-money-free-weekend/

Quote: ldubs

Thanks to you and everyone on this forum. I am looking forward to reading more here and learning. I have always been intimidated by the craps table, but now I can 't wait to go to the casino! I live near Niagara Falls and the dollar is really good right now vs the Canadian dollar. They have some nice casinos there.

IMPORTANT!

Make a DAILY MAX LOSS LIMIT and then STICK TO IT!!! If you don't do that one thing, you can kiss your money goodbye. ALL of your money.

Craps is one of the most addicting activities on the planet. You won't be the first intelligent guy to fall into its clutches. My cousin lost everything 3x over throwing the cubes.

Since you are on this forum, I can only suggest that you follow the wisdom of the wizard himself, and at least try to learn how to "lose more slowly" before you try to invent a "winning system" through trial and error. You lose more slowly by making the bets with the best paybacks, and in craps, that directly translates into ONLY Pass-line/Come (or don'ts) and max odds.

Just hanging around the tables isn't an option because if you're there you WILL want to play, and this will test your self-control.

Why have those inter-personal struggles? What good is it?

If you want to learn the game from the inside-out, you need to understand the concept of WAYS.

HERE is my own mathematical explanations of ways. If you get on the other side of the table (the gaming business), then there is no "good luck" involved; the money will flow from the customers pocket into ours because of the power of statistical certainty. If you choose to flaunt this advice and try Lady Luck instead, that is what your inter-personal struggles will be up against... statistical certainty. Lady Luck won't bail you out, and she won't pay for my cousin's 3x bankruptcies, either.

BE SMART. The only game in the casino a player can win over the long haul is poker.

I might catch some s#it for this, but I suggest you look at John Patrick's books: "Craps" and "Advanced Craps."

He has some pretty good sections on different craps plays (both right side and dark side), money management, discipline, and the reality of gambling.

He's a weird duck though. with an over the top, in your face writing style

Quote: MrV

I might catch some s#it for this, but I suggest you look at John Patrick's books: "Craps" and "Advanced Craps."

He has some pretty good sections on different craps plays (both right side and dark side), money management, discipline, and the reality of gambling.

He's a weird duck though. with an over the top, in your face writing style

Here, catch! lol...

Quote: ldubs

I am new at craps, and have learned that it is advisable to have 3 total bets max at a time (pass line bet and two come bets, all with odds). What should I do if I win a come bet or two, continue placing more come bets somImalways have 3 on the table? Or, should I take my winnings for each point won, and going from 3 bets, to 2, then 1 after a few wins, (leaving just the place bet) and wait until a 7 comes up,and we start over?

2nd question. Do most people play as many come bets as possible or stop at 3 total bets. I've seen videos where they keep placing come bets until all the numbers are covered, and then they continue to make come bets after winning a pont.

I'll try to keep it short and sweet. (edit: I failed oh well)

The absolutely best way to play is the way where the odds bet is always working. And that way says NEVER EVER bet the come because you can't take odds without specifically asking for the odds to be turned on. Otherwise 2/3 of the time your odds will be off (on the come bets).

But there's a whole other story when you talk about strategies that use zero free (ie: odds) bets.

Without odds, there is a slight hedge against the red (that's the seven) when you have a come bet in action.

That's the biggest deciding factor on when to keep putting more money in the come versus putting more money on odds. It's not just the house edge, but the presence of two bets combining together to create a "push" situation reduces the volatility. That reduction in volatility is more significant the less odds that you have.

One you have single odds or better, it's less of a problem.

But reducing volatility can ensure that you have a longer play session at a given betting level. If you can do this sort of betting without tipping off whoever is rating your action, you may get rated for more action and you might score a free room or a free meal or some other thing (by betting fewer odds and more come bets or any other bets that carry a house edge).

If you want to play for minimum volatility and maximum comps at a casino where you unsure if they rate odds, you can play a technique where craps is the bad number instead of sevens and most of the time you can break even if that's all you're trying to do, and you'll get comp'd for the sum-total of all the action on the felt.

So, for example, if you only have $100, and you want to have fun losing $20 and get $5 in comps, you can make that a goal and you might break even with $5 in comps instead. Betting the same amount on the come after a point is established and not betting odds for that first roll after the point is established, essentially changes your single passline bet as betting against the seven to twice as much action with only risking at most half of your action in the worst case for that roll (craps). This happens 1 in 9 chance instead of 1 in 6.

In every case with craps, you are betting on the roll not on the felt. That's always my view.

So one unit on the pass line and one unit on the come is two units of action (both carry a HA%, so they WILL be rated in most any casino).

You can only lose one of two units on that roll.

So let's say you bet one unit on the pass, then the point gets set to 6. Next roll you bet one unit on the come, and that travels to the eight.

Now you have two even-money pay potentials on the six and eight, and you bet the come again. Now you have $15 in action. The worst outcome is seven OR craps, which results in a net $5 loss for that roll (hedged as you can't lose more than $5 on that roll).

If you wanted to increase your exposure to more than $5, you could bet $6 or $7 or $11 on the come. Then your worst case outcome would be the 1/9 chance of a craps again where you would lose the come. But a seven would be further hedged against so that the outcome for a seven would be a net loss of $4, $5, or $0 for the $6, $7, or $11 coming.

Likewise, if you want to press your wins, pressing them into the come instead of into place bets saves you considerably on your compound edge.

If you only bet the come, each roll has an edge of 0.41%

As your action increases, that 0.41% on the come compared to 1.11% on the five and nine or 6.66% on the four and ten for $5 makes a tremendous difference (comparing continuous come to $32 across with pressure for example).

Very few people bet this way (parlay or press into the come instead of into place bets).

It seems like a less intelligent way to gamble when you always get paid even money.

But the math bears out the fact that you will have a better chance of winning betting come with no odds than $32 across with pressure due to the high percentage cost of bets below $20 on the four and ten or the place bets on the five and nine. Again, ESPECIALLY when applying pressure as the compounding effect on these outside numbers spells death.

When you venture outside of bets that have no HA% (the odds bets) it's a whole different story.

If you are truly a smart gambler in craps, you have to learn patience and maximizing ALL free bets before making any other bets that carry a cost.

I hope this helps. I don't want to go on too long in any direction, but if this helps you think of other ways to play the game, I'm more than happy to say more. I'll be visiting my mom this weekend, and I have a few spare cycles.

Good luck to all craps players. You don't have to bet smart, but in my opinion, you should at least know how if you're going to play the game just so you can shake off the dealer's trying to gain your confidence selling you one good bet to sucker you into five or six bad ones.

Quote: Ahigh

If you are truly a smart gambler in craps,

Paradox

Quote: Ahigh

you have to learn patience and maximizing ALL free bets before making any other bets that carry a cost.

You gotta buy one to get one for free? That's really smart.

Edit: Name me ONE PERSON who has made any money playing casino craps over a long period of time without cheating. Why are you encouraging this guy to try the impossible? War Games was right... "The only way to win is not to play."

Quote: discflicker

ParadoxEdit: Name me ONE PERSON who has made any money playing casino craps over a long period of time without cheating.

Alex Karras made millions at craps over a couple months, but then quickly lost it all back to Binion.

So, does a couple months equal "a long period of time?"

Quote: MrV

Alex Karras made millions at craps over a couple months, but then quickly lost it all back to Binion.

So, does a couple months equal "a long period of time?"

NO.

While I happen to agree with you, a couple months is certainly not what most people think of as "the short run," either.

Variance happens.

Quote: MrV

Alex Karras made millions at craps over a couple months, but then quickly lost it all back to Binion.

So, does a couple months equal "a long period of time?"

Archie Karas. He's in jail I think for cheating by marking cards in San Diego.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archie_Karas

Two cents per roll per $505 action is the cheapest gamble in vegas for pure chance play.

Suggesting that paying two cents per roll for five hundred in action is significant demonstrates a lack of understanding for the costs associated with giving this action to the patron.

Casinos lose money on this, you certainly must agree. So truly it's the casino that is taking the risk here. Not the player. It is simple to demonstrate that optimal play on a 100x table has a player ahead of the casino close to 50% of the time on average for a long # of rolls. Certainly more yhan 88% $!0+ machine.

Factor in the cost of operating the table and for optimal play, it is a LOSING GAME FOR THOSE PLAYERS. COST TO OPERATE IS HIGHER THAN THE EARNINGS for these intelligent players getting more than two cents per roll of gambling value.

Quote: MrV

Alex Karras made millions at craps over a couple months, but then quickly lost it all back to Binion.

So, does a couple months equal "a long period of time?"

Alex Karras was a football player turned actor who punched out a horse in Blazing Saddles. He died in 2012

Quote: MrV

While I happen to agree with you, a couple months is certainly not what most people think of as "the short run," either.

Variance happens.

Edit: Asperger's rant warning!

NrV, NO BULL:

I have spent SO much time on the craps tables... 40 years of it and playing A LOT over those year. I travel a lot, and I've played craps in more casinos that 95% of anyone on the planet. I shit you NOT.

One night, I got on the greatest roll in history, at least, in my mind... I rolled for 2 1/2 hours straight at the Railroad Pass. I can boar you all about it, but when I finally seven'd out, I thought to myself "WOW. I will never happen again.", and then I just stood there panting like a dog for like 2 minutes, savoring the moment as the entire casino applauded. Then I walked over to the 25-cent Wheel Of Fortune machine, and someone drunken Mexicans had left it beeping on the Spin Jackpot… they were so drunk they didn’t know what it was and just left it like that. I put $10 into the machine and hung around for a couple of minutes to make it look like it was already my machine, and then I hit the SPIN button and won $1250.

That was a great night. I walked out of the casino on pillows with 50 times my daily loss limit, allowing me to play every day for the next two months, worry-free.

Getting on a great roll in craps is an incredible feeling, better than sex and chocolate. Almost better than making the game winning catch in the finals of the world championships (done that too).

If you start with what you can afford to lose and then turn that into way more than you expect to win, that is awesome. That everyone's dream.

All those years, I knew what I was doing the whole time, daring Lady Luck, taunting her. I've always been good with numbers, and I played the game every way possible, fully knowing the odds every time.

I was always in control. I have NEVER lost more than I wanted to. I would drive 300 miles and play one hour, and if I exceeded my daily limit, I would NOT go to the money machine, I would go for a walk, or find the nearest disc golf course.

However, I have paid for my play… over my lifetime, it adds up. NOBODY plays and wins over the long haul. Now that I'm old and slow, I almost never play any more, I play poker now, where I CAN win over the long haul.

(Now the ugly…)

But here's the thing bout craps....

When we play craps, we BUY the euphoric feeling… we play only as long as we have enough money. We’re not EARNING anything, and we’re certainly not being productive.

The people who seriously play it, most of us are alone. We try to impress one another by making outrageous bets. We flaunt our expertise and our command of the obscure terms and rituals. We act up at the table, as if we're in a movie, calling out numbers, shouting, talking big and slamming our fists against the rail.

We act as if we understand the game enough to influence the outcome with pure attitude and confidence; as if we have some kind of an inside edge that nobody else has. As if we can control Lady Luck and take HER for a ride.

We play out the fantasy role that the Vegas casinos have presented for us... Sinatra, Martin, Davis Jr., you know... It feels great while we play the role, just like they wants us to. They even toss us a few scraps along the way to make us think we can be winners, just like the Rat pack.


I too, was immersed in the fantasy. I too, figured… hey its just entertainment that I’m paying for. That I’m a winner, even if I lose, ha ha HA!

AND THEN, one day…

About 10 years ago, I saw a website of craps dealers; that one visit changed me forever; it was enough to make me want to quit the game!

We think the house respects us, like they treat us as guests, right?

WRONG!

Here is the hard reality: the dealers and the pit bosses, the stick men even the waitresses, they all laugh at us. To them, we are CHUMPS. We are nothing but fish in a barrel. They suck up to us “patrons” and they laugh at us under their breath. ALL OF THEM… Knowing this FACT, don’t you feel like a John right now, paying for your pleasure? Yup.

In reality, we are all losers, it is a FACT. I don't care how much bankroll you have to keep the dream afloat, it is a dream yes... for only for the house. It’s really a nightmare for us players, but we’re all too stupid and “brainwashed by Vegas” to admit it. Even us smart guys, we’re f’in stupid too. Cmon, admit it - the truth hurts, but it IS true.


When we lose it hurts in a way that we REALLY become addicted to. Don't tell me I'm wrong about this... we feel the pain but we keep coming back. We know better, but we still do it. HOW SICK IS THAT? To believe that something will change when nothing different happens… that is the definition of insanity, pal. The entire act of paying to be abused, paying to be a chump for the casinos to laugh at behind our backs… it IS sick. It IS disgusting.

OK, NOW,

WHY would anyone try to convince ANYONE that there is a sane method to play craps?

IN PARTICULAR, why would you try to convince a novice of this, and do so with such a tone of zeal that you imply it is possible to be happy playing this evil game?

Why? What do you get out of making someone else miserable? It must be that you don’t realize it yet yourself, although you did admit that you were preaching to the choir.

Throughout my life, my opinions have changed, but never the fact that I was right; I too used to brag on and on to everyone about how cool craps was, and how to play it most effectively.

But I certainly DON’T do it any more. If you look at my posts on this forum since day 1, you will see that I’ve always agreed with the Wizard on this... nobody can win the game over the long haul.

Again, I know I’m preaching to the choir, but this is as serious as a heart attack.

Variance? That’s just how Lady Luck tempts you. Variance is the uncertainty that manifests as short-term loss or gain. What is NOT uncertain is that you will lose over the long term. Vegas was built upon it; of that I am 100% certain.

LOL "Alex."

I know better, too.

Damn.

Quote: MrV

LOL "Alex."

I know better, too.

Damn.

Ya see what happens when you spend your life standing over a green pit? Take heed, young one'.

I'm sure the worlds most famous gaming author, who every now and then anoints us with his presents, (When he is selling a book) is probably a lifetime winner at craps. What with royalties and school tuition, he is a walking reminder to the curmudgeon from Portland, that some win at craps.

Quote: DeMango

I'm sure the worlds most famous gaming author, who every now and then anoints us with his presents, (When he is selling a book) is probably a lifetime winner at craps. What with royalties and school tuition, he is a walking reminder to the curmudgeon from Portland, that some win at craps.

I hope this threat isn't straying too far from its intentions, which was a novice asking some specific advice about some specific strategies and gaming systems.

I'm the guy who jumped all over this thread, telling him to stay clear of the game, because NOBODY can win it over the long term, and that strategies and gaming systems do not work. I am absolutely certain the Wizard would say the same thing.

If the author you're talking about is Patrick, and if he claims to have a positive balance from a lifetime of honest casino craps, then he is a liar. PERIOD! If you believe him, then I am sorry, but you are a fool. The only way this is remotely possible is if he hit some kind of jackpot, like $1000 Fire Bet, and that is NOT really craps. I have seen some of his videos, the man does not understand what the word RANDOM means; he sits there screaming about the order in which you make column bets in Roulette, as if a previous result impacts a future outcome of the wheel. Last time I looked, a roulette wheel has no memory, and thus his "betting systems" are total bull. At least snake oil has a placebo affect, for Christ's sake.

But if you want to believe in Voodoo and the tooth fairy, go right ahead. Vegas was built on people that believe they can overcome statistical certainty.

I hope by now, the novice understands; this is all a big fairy tale. Vegas wants you to believe its possible to win, but it just ain't so. If they pay Patrick to lure chumps onto the craps tables with his fake "gaming systems", maybe that's what he's counting in his positive balance lifetime winnings. it certainly did not come from winning casino craps.

It IS possible in a game of skill, like Poker, but the only skill you can have in Craps is that you can learn how to lose slower by making better bets (I'm an expert in that because I understand the mathematics of Craps). Otherwise, its truly a "craps shoot", and a simple matter of time until you lose.

Quote: discflicker

Paradox

You gotta buy one to get one for free? That's really smart.

Edit: Name me ONE PERSON who has made any money playing casino craps over a long period of time without cheating. Why are you encouraging this guy to try the impossible? War Games was right... "The only way to win is not to play."

I started to make a longer reply, but let me keep it short.

You have a LOT to learn.

Quote: discflicker

I hope this threat isn't straying too far from its intentions, which was a novice asking some specific advice about some specific strategies and gaming systems.

I'm the guy who jumped all over this thread, telling him to stay clear of the game, because NOBODY can win it over the long term, and that strategies and gaming systems do not work. I am absolutely certain the Wizard would say the same thing.

If the author you're talking about is Patrick, and if he claims to have a positive balance from a lifetime of honest casino craps, then he is a liar. PERIOD! If you believe him, then I am sorry, but you are a fool. The only way this is remotely possible is if he hit some kind of jackpot, like $1000 Fire Bet, and that is NOT really craps. I have seen some of his videos, the man does not understand what the word RANDOM means; he sits there screaming about the order in which you make column bets in Roulette, as if a previous result impacts a future outcome of the wheel. Last time I looked, a roulette wheel has no memory, and thus his "betting systems" are total bull. At least snake oil has a placebo affect, for Christ's sake.

But if you want to believe in Voodoo and the tooth fairy, go right ahead. Vegas was built on people that believe they can overcome statistical certainty.

I hope by now, the novice understands; this is all a big fairy tale. Vegas wants you to believe its possible to win, but it just ain't so. If they pay Patrick to lure chumps onto the craps tables with his fake "gaming systems", maybe that's what he's counting in his positive balance lifetime winnings. it certainly did not come from winning casino craps.

It IS possible in a game of skill, like Poker, but the only skill you can have in Craps is that you can learn how to lose slower by making better bets (I'm an expert in that because I understand the mathematics of Craps). Otherwise, its truly a "craps shoot", and a simple matter of time until you lose.

I run a company that is operating on a platform that treating players fairly is what needs to happen in order to change things.

There is a thread of truth to what you're saying, and I've met these folks responsible and in meeting rooms to collude against you and every other player that they assume will only lose and that's just how it is in the real world of video gambling machines.

I want to respond to this in more detail because I think this is an interesting conversation. But I'm going to have to take a break first before I get emotional (I'm not at all right now, and I do want to help).

It might help you to know where I'm coming from by seeing the FRONT PAGE of the website for the company that I started here in Las Vegas.

The company is called NanoTech Gaming.

Maybe, if you're open to new ideas, this could be a productive conversation. But 100x odds is the best gamble in vegas on a technical basis assuming you don't want to learn what you have to learn to AP existing games like video poker or blackjack. The reason no locals go to Casino Royale is because we tip. End of story.

But I do want to talk more about your beliefs as I think this is a symptom of an industry in trouble and I want to address some of what you're saying.

But I haven't read it all yet, and I want to read it and contemplate it, and respond to it in detail.

In the mean time, though, I encourage you to think about what we're doing if you really and truly feel this way.

We are making games that can be beat without exposing the casino.

That is what we are doing at NanoTech. And it is exciting.

And you are touching on some truths here, too.

I give you that for sure.

Maybe in a couple of hours or so, but I gotta got visit with my mom for now. K?

Maybe you want to start a new thread on the subject so the OP can return to discussing come bets?

Quote: discflicker

Edit: Asperger's rant warning!

NrV, NO BULL:

I have spent SO much time on the craps tables... 40 years of it and playing A LOT over those year. I travel a lot, and I've played craps in more casinos that 95% of anyone on the planet. I shit you NOT.

One night, I got on the greatest roll in history, at least, in my mind... I rolled for 2 1/2 hours straight at the Railroad Pass. I can boar you all about it, but when I finally seven'd out, I thought to myself "WOW. I will never happen again.", and then I just stood there panting like a dog for like 2 minutes, savoring the moment as the entire casino applauded. Then I walked over to the 25-cent Wheel Of Fortune machine, and someone drunken Mexicans had left it beeping on the Spin Jackpot… they were so drunk they didn’t know what it was and just left it like that. I put $10 into the machine and hung around for a couple of minutes to make it look like it was already my machine, and then I hit the SPIN button and won $1250.

That was a great night. I walked out of the casino on pillows with 50 times my daily loss limit, allowing me to play every day for the next two months, worry-free.

Getting on a great roll in craps is an incredible feeling, better than sex and chocolate. Almost better than making the game winning catch in the finals of the world championships (done that too).

If you start with what you can afford to lose and then turn that into way more than you expect to win, that is awesome. That everyone's dream.

All those years, I knew what I was doing the whole time, daring Lady Luck, taunting her. I've always been good with numbers, and I played the game every way possible, fully knowing the odds every time.

I was always in control. I have NEVER lost more than I wanted to. I would drive 300 miles and play one hour, and if I exceeded my daily limit, I would NOT go to the money machine, I would go for a walk, or find the nearest disc golf course.

However, I have paid for my play… over my lifetime, it adds up. NOBODY plays and wins over the long haul. Now that I'm old and slow, I almost never play any more, I play poker now, where I CAN win over the long haul.

(Now the ugly…)

But here's the thing bout craps....

When we play craps, we BUY the euphoric feeling… we play only as long as we have enough money. We’re not EARNING anything, and we’re certainly not being productive.

The people who seriously play it, most of us are alone. We try to impress one another by making outrageous bets. We flaunt our expertise and our command of the obscure terms and rituals. We act up at the table, as if we're in a movie, calling out numbers, shouting, talking big and slamming our fists against the rail.

We act as if we understand the game enough to influence the outcome with pure attitude and confidence; as if we have some kind of an inside edge that nobody else has. As if we can control Lady Luck and take HER for a ride.

We play out the fantasy role that the Vegas casinos have presented for us... Sinatra, Martin, Davis Jr., you know... It feels great while we play the role, just like they wants us to. They even toss us a few scraps along the way to make us think we can be winners, just like the Rat pack.


I too, was immersed in the fantasy. I too, figured… hey its just entertainment that I’m paying for. That I’m a winner, even if I lose, ha ha HA!

AND THEN, one day…

About 10 years ago, I saw a website of craps dealers; that one visit changed me forever; it was enough to make me want to quit the game!

We think the house respects us, like they treat us as guests, right?

WRONG!

Here is the hard reality: the dealers and the pit bosses, the stick men even the waitresses, they all laugh at us. To them, we are CHUMPS. We are nothing but fish in a barrel. They suck up to us “patrons” and they laugh at us under their breath. ALL OF THEM… Knowing this FACT, don’t you feel like a John right now, paying for your pleasure? Yup.

In reality, we are all losers, it is a FACT. I don't care how much bankroll you have to keep the dream afloat, it is a dream yes... for only for the house. It’s really a nightmare for us players, but we’re all too stupid and “brainwashed by Vegas” to admit it. Even us smart guys, we’re f’in stupid too. Cmon, admit it - the truth hurts, but it IS true.


When we lose it hurts in a way that we REALLY become addicted to. Don't tell me I'm wrong about this... we feel the pain but we keep coming back. We know better, but we still do it. HOW SICK IS THAT? To believe that something will change when nothing different happens… that is the definition of insanity, pal. The entire act of paying to be abused, paying to be a chump for the casinos to laugh at behind our backs… it IS sick. It IS disgusting.

OK, NOW,

WHY would anyone try to convince ANYONE that there is a sane method to play craps?

IN PARTICULAR, why would you try to convince a novice of this, and do so with such a tone of zeal that you imply it is possible to be happy playing this evil game?

Why? What do you get out of making someone else miserable? It must be that you don’t realize it yet yourself, although you did admit that you were preaching to the choir.

Throughout my life, my opinions have changed, but never the fact that I was right; I too used to brag on and on to everyone about how cool craps was, and how to play it most effectively.

But I certainly DON’T do it any more. If you look at my posts on this forum since day 1, you will see that I’ve always agreed with the Wizard on this... nobody can win the game over the long haul.

Again, I know I’m preaching to the choir, but this is as serious as a heart attack.

Variance? That’s just how Lady Luck tempts you. Variance is the uncertainty that manifests as short-term loss or gain. What is NOT uncertain is that you will lose over the long term. Vegas was built upon it; of that I am 100% certain.

I did finish reading your other post and this one too. Absolutely brilliant and thanks for sharing.

I do think it's time for a separate thread on the subject. Maybe a mod can split the conversation out to another thread?

Quote: DeMango

I'm sure the worlds most famous gaming author, who every now and then anoints us with his presents, (When he is selling a book) is probably a lifetime winner at craps.

Really?

Scoblete is "probably a lifetime winner at craps?"

You're "sure" about that, are you?

Oh, I get it: you read his "tell all" tome "Craps Underground: The Inside Story of How Dice Controllers are Winning Millions from the Casinos!" and he was just oh, so convincing.

Let me guess: you're also "sure" that the Captain of Craps said and did everything Scoblete ascribed to him?

Choose your delusion.

Time to get real.

As to "sure" things, add to "death" and "taxes" that "craps players will lose in the long run."

The game has destroyed many people; it isn't "evil" per se, but anyone who plays it over time better keep their eyes and their wallet opened and not succumb to the siren song of "false hope."

I like to play craps; it's fun, it's exciting, it's stimulating.

But it can become quite an expensive hobby.

Just ask no less a gambling luminary than Steve Wynn, the current Las Vegas casino mogul.

Steve does not play craps, to my understanding; I read that as a child Steve observed first hand how a love for the game of craps hurt / wiped out his father.

A sad tale, and oh so common.

Remember boys and girls, when you dance with the devil, he always gets his due.

A few months ago I knew a lifetime winner of craps, I _think_. He won at Silverton and it took him a couple weeks to give it back. He said he did pay off his car though.

If you want to meet a lifetime winner at craps, just show someone who's never played how to play properly and about half the time, they'll be that person.

I was a lifetime winner at craps before too.

It's EASY to be a lifetime winner at craps.

And it gets HARDER with each roll to stay a lifetime winner at craps.

I am actually a lifetime winner at roulette! Both double and single zero.

But I got nothing to teach on roulette.

I wasn't going to say this, but can't stop myself. I really have no quarrel with anyone saying you lose in the long run, it's just as well to believe that for the poster and the postee too ...

But simulations absolutely show that a a flat-betting player using exclusively the pass or DP with full odds, and betting such only, 5x or better, has a reasonable shot at being a lifetime winner. This partly for the reason that such player shouldn't see billions of rolls in a lifetime and partly for the reason that the HE on those bets is so low.

Not most such players of course. But it is a hefty percentage. For the buzzkill: It may be that there are almost no lifetime winners. This would be because:

*almost nobody plays that way
*someone with the bankroll needed is attracted by other things he wants to do with his money, even restricting this to gambling. The whole Host thing seems very addictive.
*the enormous swings in bankroll are too nerve-wracking

Quote: MrV

Really?

Scoblete is "probably a lifetime winner at craps?"

You're "sure" about that, are you?

Oh, I get it: you read his "tell all" tome "Craps Underground: The Inside Story of How Dice Controllers are Winning Millions from the Casinos!" and he was just oh, so convincing.

Let me guess: you're also "sure" that the Captain of Craps said and did everything Scoblete ascribed to him?

Choose your delusion.

Time to get real.

As to "sure" things, add to "death" and "taxes" that "craps players will lose in the long run."

The game has destroyed many people; it isn't "evil" per se, but anyone who plays it over time better keep their eyes and their wallet opened and not succumb to the siren song of "false hope."

I like to play craps; it's fun, it's exciting, it's stimulating.

But it can become quite an expensive hobby.

Just ask no less a gambling luminary than Steve Wynn, the current Las Vegas casino mogul.

Steve does not play craps, to my understanding; I read that as a child Steve observed first hand how a love for the game of craps hurt / wiped out his father.

A sad tale, and oh so common.

Remember boys and girls, when you dance with the devil, he always gets his due.

Well said, Mrv!

Quote: odiousgambit

But simulations absolutely show that a a flat-betting player using exclusively the pass or DP with full odds, and betting such only, 5x or better, has a reasonable shot at being a lifetime winner.

This is a TOTAL LIE! Where did you get this information???

I've written my own simulators and I will bet anyone any amount of money that after only 20,000 or so rolls, any player employing that exact strategy will go into the red and never return. You can run this test 100 times in a row, and it will fail EVERY time.

I dare anyone to take me up on this.

When you see it happening on the screen, you get the definite feeling of hopelessness, and you KNOW that the game can never ever be beaten over the long run.

Quote: ldubs

2nd question.
Do most people play as many come bets as possible or stop at 3 total bets.

i say most do not make a come bet every roll possible
where most is >50%

I think 3 total bets (do side) is popular but do not have any data on how popular

the 3 point Molly has to be popular because one has 3 of the 6 numbers covered once that event happens

it is a myth that it is optimal play for
do line bets, imo

Quote: ldubs

I've seen videos where they keep placing come bets until all the numbers are covered, and then they continue to make come bets after winning a pont.

yes, bases loaded
that event does not happen as often as many say and think

about 7 rolls on average in 1000 are all the numbers covered
about 67 rolls on average in 1000 are 5 numbers covered
so about 37 rolls on average in 1000 rolls (3.7 rolls per 100)
where at least 5 or 6 numbers are covered numbers covered

have fun when you do play
win or lose
Sally

Quote: discflicker

This is a TOTAL LIE! Where did you get this information???

I've written my own simulators and I will bet anyone any amount of money that after only 20,000 or so rolls, any player employing that exact strategy will go into the red and never return. You can run this test 100 times in a row, and it will fail EVERY time.

I dare anyone to take me up on this.

When you see it happening on the screen, you get the definite feeling of hopelessness, and you KNOW that the game can never ever be beaten over the long run.

20,000 rolls for pass/dpass is about only so 5926 resolved wagers, do you mean 20,000 lifetime bets?

you better re-state what you think is the long run of a lifetime of play cuz you would (will) lose your bet
(to me of course)
***************************************************
even for a player making $5 bets with no odds can be a lifetime winner over that many rolls
at least 130,000 out of 1 million on average would be expected to "beat the game"

and over 20,000 lifetime bets with no odds
1 in 43 is the chance to be a lifetime winner
far far away from never
***************************************************
try again and please no yelling!
serves no purpose except placing a mark on your forehead

********************--<>--***********************
my sim data for 20k rolls (not 20k bets) with pass/5X odds
i ran this 1 million times
Bankroll decreased . . = 57.395% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 42.560% of the time

hey real close to the calculated value ev/sd
0.425862282
i had to run it for 20k bets pass with 5x odds too
the math is real easy too

odiousgambit loves ev and sd
you due
Mully

Quote: discflicker

This is a TOTAL LIE! Where did you get this information???

I've written my own simulators and I will bet anyone any amount of money that after only 20,000 or so rolls, any player employing that exact strategy will go into the red and never return. You can run this test 100 times in a row, and it will fail EVERY time.

I dare anyone to take me up on this.

When you see it happening on the screen, you get the definite feeling of hopelessness, and you KNOW that the game can never ever be beaten over the long run.

If we bet will you let Wizard hold the money?

Quote: mustangsally

odiousgambit loves ev and sd
you due
Mully

The one can be divided by the other, can it not, Sally? LOL

Quote: odiousgambit

If we bet will you let Wizard hold the money?

no IF

bet $11,000 to win $10,000 (example)
that way the Wizard makes a cool $1k to take his wife out on a date

I say make the lifetime bets = to a cool 1,000,000
cool

345X odds
5X odds
lifetime winners?
1 million players each...

place your bets!

Quote: odiousgambit

The one can be divided by the other, can it not, Sally? LOL

unless you only know how to multiply
Mully

ok
hubby wants to see the Angles again tonight B4 a weeks vacation back east (more pizza)
watch out Big A!
6:05 pm game time
i no feel an over

Quote: discflicker

I've written my own simulators and I will bet anyone any amount of money that after only 20,000 or so rolls, any player employing that exact strategy will go into the red and never return.

In case you thought I was proposing the doey-don't, no. The player picks one side or the other and hedges no bet.

Quote: mustangsally

yes, bases loaded
that event does not happen as often as many say and think

And it happens EVEN LESS with $300,000 in "optimal play" action from a high limit gambler.

Even gamblers with big bankrolls get emotional when the seven finally comes on bases loaded. I think on the comeout roll, when you're working the comeout, it's even MORE emotional.

Phil is the real deal. He was smiling after the seven. But when you've already won as much as he has, it's a blip I guess.

But his blips would pay off my house. It's just crazy.

Quote: odiousgambit

In case you thought I was proposing the doey-don't, no. The player picks one side or the other and hedges no bet.

To the good people on WoV; if I have misspoken, I apologize. By pure math, I suppose there is a slim chance of having a positive balance after 20,000 rolls, employing this strategy. I would like to see the math that comes up with the 64 - 36 discussed above.

I know better than to challenge the math of WoV posters.

However, I will take these 100 bets for $1 each, individually... you start with a zero balance, and you run 20,000 fair rolls using all pass-line and 5x odds bets, and if you have a positive balance, that is a win, and I lose $1. If you do not have a positive balance, I win $1. We do this bet individually 100 times, and at the end, will I have a positive balance or not? That's what I meant by EVERY time, and please excuse my shouting and bold.

Takers?

More important, I wonder out of the 100 times this is attempted, how many times the balance falls below a player's daily or lifetime loss limit? That's what I meant by falling into the red and never getting back.

My point to the novice was that you can't win over a lifetime, so don't try it, and I stand by that statement.

Quote: discflicker

Takers?

Your even-money bet covers the concept that a player over however many rolls is more likely to lose money than win money. Your are correct and the odds will favor your side of that bet.

That is not the same as "you can't win over a lifetime, so don't try it". [although I also recommend no one try it]. The claim is, that a percentage of players, but less than 50%, who try to be winners over a lifetime could be so with the bankroll and the discipline required.

Quote:

I stand by that statement

Here's the outline of a bet I propose, then, to test the real claim.

20 players with unlimited bankroll each using a different set of rolls, roll 20,000 rolls and using those rolls as at a normal craps table, are to bet the pass line with 5x odds taking max odds, and making that bet as often as possible and always with max odds, but only that bet; I say some will be winners. Unresolved Craps bets are abandoned and lost at the 20,000th roll to the advantage of the other side of this proposal: I will wager $1 that 4 or more end up with more money than they started with, and I haven't tried to check the math. If 16 or more break even, or have less money than they started with, the other side of this wager wins.

The 20 players are to be simulated by a Wincraps program run by some member here we agree we can trust to run it fairly.

Quote: discflicker

I've written my own simulators and I will bet anyone any amount of money that after only 20,000 or so rolls, any player employing that exact strategy will go into the red and never return. You can run this test 100 times in a row, and it will fail EVERY time.

I dare anyone to take me up on this.

I agree the game cannot bet beaten, but I accept that challenge.

But 20,000 rolls is waaaay too easy.

I'll make it easier for you.

10K Bankroll
Never more than one $10 DP or one $10 PL bet, with odds working at any time.

Switching back and forth between DP and Pl according to my switching rules.

1,296,000 rolls, or 10,800 hrs of play at 3X odds ending with a profit.

Or

Three 432,000 roll simulations 5X odds, each ending with no less than a 30% profit.

Quote: Tanko

I accept that challenge.

for even money? will you take my action?

Quote: odiousgambit

for even money? will you take my action?

Sure.

PM me.

Quote: odiousgambit

I will wager $1 that 4 or more end up with more money than they started with,
and I haven't tried to check the math.

Bold move, imo, almost like going all-in at poker.

here is a table of values from ev/sd for 1 million resolved pass line bets (1 unit bet)
for a lifetime of play
(maybe one for pass/come will follow)

due the math and check my checks

Odds	ev/sd
0	-14.14282835
1	-7.470174555
2	-4.948218705
3	-3.681946468
345X	-2.87682532
4	-2.927436676
5	-2.428126858
6	-2.073734476
7	-1.809337649
8	-1.604592548
9	-1.441393863
10	-1.308279217

what does it mean?

Quote: mustangsally

even for a player making $5 bets with no odds can be a lifetime winner over that many rolls
at least 130,000 out of 1 million on average would be expected to "beat the game"

and over 20,000 lifetime bets with no odds 1 in 43 is the chance to be a lifetime winner far far away from never

You hit the nail on the head. And that 1 in 43 sounds pretty accurate, too. And it is far from an unreachable goal, except for players who don't have even a win goal.

Quote: SanchoPanza

You hit the nail on the head. And that 1 in 43 sounds pretty accurate, too. And it is far from an unreachable goal, except for players who don't have even a win goal.

Well, whoop-ty-do, 1 in 43 has a chance at having some money left after playing craps their whole life.

Can anyone calculate, on average, how much profit that 1 out of 43 wins, and then compare that amount to the average amount lost by the other 42?

I'm guessing (again) a small win vs. a large loss. My gut feeling is like maybe 300 units won vs. 8,000 lost (betting one unit on the pass and 5 unit on pass-line odds).

There has to be some reasonable goal for someone to take such a chance. My simulator is really slow; if somebody could crunch the numbers we could know for sure. If my guesstimate is right, then the odds of "winning" a measly sum only 1 in 43 times vs. what is likely lost, reinforces my statement that "you can not win over a lifetime of playing".

There is now way I would risk 8000 to make 300, only 1 in 43 times. Playing for a "reasonable goal" makes (an agreeably) calculable "win" a matter of semantics.

Honestly, who would take such a proposition seriously? That is precisely what we're talking about, isn't it?

We want to be precise in our statements, yes, and perhaps I worded my first claim a bit too strongly, BUT, if you call that ridiculous return on investment a "win" then you are the one who's mincing words when you say "far from an unreachable goal".

Please correct me if I am wrong, and I already know about the entertainment value... I DID play the stupid game for 40 years straight.

Marty

Continuous play AP from hand eye coordination with no casino math required is coming.

Quote: discflicker

If my guesstimate is right, then the odds of "winning" a measly sum only 1 in 43 times vs. what is likely lost, reinforces my statement that "you can not win over a lifetime of playing". There is now way I would risk 8000 to make 300, only 1 in 43 times. Playing for a "reasonable goal" makes (an agreeably) calculable "win" a matter of semantics.

Agreed to the extent that if you can't do better than $300 almost every time you step up to the rail better than 1 in 43, you ought to consider giving up the game. And not waste 40 years. After all, the object of the game is not to win all the casino's $8,000. That's the uninformed way to become a life-career loser.

The object of the game is to play and have fun.

Sure, it'll cost you.

No different than many other hobbies / interests such as hunting, fishing, traveling and whoring.