1594 rolls recorded... Crooked dice?

Breakdown of 1594 rolls recorded at live tables over the past couple weeks...

2's = 42
3's = 84
4's = 131
5's = 169
6's = 222
7's = 296
8's = 225
9's = 172
10's = 116
11's = 96
12's = 41

Expected number of 7's after 1594 rolls = 265.666

Observed number of 7's after 1594 rolls = 296

Z-score = 2.03869858

Probability = 2.07%

biased dice, dude.

besides, any half-decent trend spotters would see that you bet on the Yo's

j/k

There are more 7s and fewer 10s than expected. The other numbers are almost right on target.

It does seem odd, but I don't know if it's odd enough to draw any conclusion.

i do not see a cold table

a nice way to grind out a profit from ANY
Lay bet with vig paid up fronts

looks to me
lots of numbers
were real close to their individual expectation

number	actual	expected	diff	% actual	% expected	diff	1 in actual	1 in expected
2	42	44.28	-2.28	2.63%	2.78%	-0.14%	37.95	36.00
3	84	88.56	-4.56	5.27%	5.56%	-0.29%	18.98	18.00
4	131	132.83	-1.83	8.22%	8.33%	-0.12%	12.17	12.00
5	169	177.11	-8.11	10.60%	11.11%	-0.51%	9.43	9.00
6	222	221.39	0.61	13.93%	13.89%	0.04%	7.18	7.20
7	296	265.67	30.33	18.57%	16.67%	1.90%	5.39	6.00
8	225	221.39	3.61	14.12%	13.89%	0.23%	7.08	7.20
9	172	177.11	-5.11	10.79%	11.11%	-0.32%	9.27	9.00
10	116	132.83	-16.83	7.28%	8.33%	-1.06%	13.74	12.00
11	96	88.56	7.44	6.02%	5.56%	0.47%	16.60	18.00
12	41	44.28	-3.28	2.57%	2.78%	-0.21%	38.88	36.00

i see a net profit of $1713 just making $41 Lay bets always on the 4 and 10
that many 7s popping would be difficult to always Lay at $41

i would be sitting at $205 to win $100 for at least half the time

another Lay bets Rule performance (i see this wayyyyyyyy 22222222222222222222 often)

as to the p-value of this collection
i think it would pass the test
we will see
Mully



added:
p-value in Excel shows 0.685147331
statistic=7.421455458
degrees of freedom=10
i am not a p-value expert
maybe Ahigh wants to try

i still like the "LOOK of LOVE"

Quote: drjohnny

Breakdown of 1594 rolls recorded at live tables over the past couple weeks...

1594 is what i find odd...

remove the 9 and you have 154
exactly the number of rolls in
Grandma Pat's world craps hand record from 2009


add the 9 back in (154+9) =
163
the new world record by that Utah single Mom back in April 2015

"odd as hell"

what is that p-value?

A chi-squared test has a chi-squared statistic of 7.42 with 10 degrees of freedom. The probability of a distribution this skewed or more is 68.5%. So, such a distribution is actually a little smoother than expectation. Overall, very much in the normal range.

Is my Z-score calculation of the number of 7's flawed?

Quote: mustangsally

i see a net profit of $1713 just making $41 Lay bets always on the 4 and 10
that many 7s popping would be difficult to always Lay at $41

Is this how you usually play, always laying the 4 & 10?

Quote: drjohnny

Is this how you usually play, always laying the 4 & 10?

Oh, i see you caught your math mistake
on your post here

i would not want to play at that casino if i only won $20 on a 4 and 10 lay at the same time
hehehe

i normally only lay the 4 when it is the point

but there are times when the 7 takes off (in other words "bombs away!)
and i do lay both (or all on the come out roll)

still a lifetime winner with my Lay bets
i just know when to make them
that makes me lucky

Quote: mustangsally

Oh, i see you caught your math mistake
on your post here

i would not want to play at that casino if i only won $20 on a 4 and 10 lay at the same time
hehehe

i normally only lay the 4 when it is the point

but there are times when the 7 takes off (in other words "bombs away!)
and i do lay both (or all on the come out roll)

still a lifetime winner with my Lay bets
i just know when to make them
that makes me lucky

If you truly "just know when to make them" then you'd never lose. Otherwise you've just beaten the odds for now. That happens all the time.

What shocks me is that you know who hasn't replied!

Quote: drjohnny

Breakdown of 1594 rolls recorded at live tables over the past couple weeks...

2's = 42
3's = 84
4's = 131
5's = 169
6's = 222
7's = 296
8's = 225
9's = 172
10's = 116
11's = 96
12's = 41

Expected number of 7's after 1594 rolls = 265.666

Observed number of 7's after 1594 rolls = 296

Z-score = 2.03869858

Probability = 2.07%

Start keeping better records and notes. You got nothing that I see here except a willingness to record (and go through the hassles thereof).

Even if your only conclusion is that the dice are fair, using your own data is the best way to go.

You can google p-values and figure that out. Learn how to do them on google. Mustang has plenty of info to figure all that out in her post. Learning p-values from this forum is one of the best nugget-take-aways that I got from talking with the math folks on here. I definitely recommend learning about that.

drjohnny and MustangSally,

Excellent work, however I concur with Ahigh that better records and notes must be kept in order to reach an accurate conclusion. Otherwise, you can not possibly correctly answer your poll with the limited data.

I am surprised that the 17 votes so far jumped to such conclusions based on such limited data and assumptions:

First, how do we not know that fair dice were used on several shifts and unbalanced dice were maybe used on 1 or 2 shifts therefore skewing the data?

Second, are you mixing rolls from several casinos?

Most analysis starts with some kind of control of the data. Although we have an excellent beginning here, I believe the following needs to be added for a better determination:

1. Keep separate databases by serial number and casino.

2. Look at the data after 50 rolls, again after 300 rolls and after 500 rolls for the same stick of dice to see if the same variances from expectation exist.

3. Identify which results are from soft tosses vs. Hard tosses vs. patrons trying to influence the dice vs. patrons actually influencing the dice vs. dice that have an unusual result from hitting chips, hand or puck.

4. Track separately the individual die faces. How many Hard 8s are there or are the 8s coming in mostly from "Horn faces" (1, 2, 5, 6)? Are there more Hard 10s than Hard 6s?

Remember not all dice are created equal.

Quote: Bohemian

Remember not all dice are created equal.

I copied this from an e-mail exchange with Amber where she talks about her motivation to put pips in the wrong place as part of a design for balance.

I think much of the confidence of precision comes from these M.E. types. But angular mass, too, right, Amber?



Here's mine (tungsten die) with the pips in the right places.



Whateverz...

Quote: DeMango

What shocks me is that you know who hasn't replied!

Right on cue!

Quote: drjohnny

Is my Z-score calculation of the number of 7's flawed?

looks good to me
2% or abouts 1 in 50


here
think this over>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

say in 36 dice rolls we get 7 7s instead of 6
must happen all-the-time-by-the-watch

that makes the % about 19.44 (7/36)
higher than the 18.57% that you tallied

still crooked dice?
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

the fact remains
the Lay bet is NOT marked on any Craps table layout as far as i have seen

that makes it almost unknown to most all players
but most players will still never bet them (any Lay bet) as they do not like getting paid less than what they bet
yes, fools imo

does not matter they win more times or more often
win win win, easiest way to beat the edge over one lifetime of play (higher winning rate)

almost all craps players do not know how to win when the 7s come knocking
no matter the reason
(they rather cry, imo, and go home, well the vast majority of male craps players that is)

dont pass and pass line still get slaughtered

just what it is

Quote: mustangsally

2% or abouts 1 in 50 here say in 36 dice rolls we get 7 7s instead of 6 must happen all-the-time-by-the-watch
that makes the % about 19.44 (7/36) higher than the 18.57% that you tallied still crooked dice?

Of course not. But you gotta love that variance.

let me say up front that my actual math skills are profoundly lacking

30 more 7s than expected
probability of 2.07%
30 less than expected would be 234
probability of 234 is ??
probability of any individual distribution number in the range of 236 to 296 is ??




in short i dont believe that a "case" for anything can be made from this distribution...

tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

---------------------------
Mustang Sally: "...the fact remains
the Lay bet is NOT marked on any Craps table layout as far as i have seen...that makes it almost unknown to most all players"
---------------------------

nor is the Place Bet marked as such, yet it is VERY well known...nor the Buy Bet, tho well known not so much...nor is the Odds Bet marked but of course we all know why that is...

tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

OK, Sally, I know better but I'll bite [having ignored this claim about lay bets about 100 times].

I think what Sally needs to do is show the Wizard just how much he is wrong for claiming the lay bets have a house edge.

Quote: house edges per wizard page

Lay 6, 8 ... 4.00% per bet 1.22% per roll
Lay 5, 9 ... 3.23% per bet 0.90% per roll
Lay 4, 10... 2.44% per bet 0.61%per roll

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/

Think of the fame and fortune, Sally! Proving the Wizard wrong! Perhaps even showing that these bets, right under our noses, were the secret to beating the house all along. Even in the long run? Turning math upside down on its head! That's Nobel Prize territory. Wow!

Quote: betwthelines

---------------------------
Mustang Sally: "...the fact remains
the Lay bet is NOT marked on any Craps table layout as far as i have seen...that makes it almost unknown to most all players"
---------------------------

nor is the Place Bet marked as such, yet it is VERY well known...

i say about 50% of the craps tables i have played on have the words place bets written on them on the lines where the bets go

the Buy bets still lose on a 7 out

the Lay bet wins on any 7

(and, imo,
is easy to frustrate most male craps shooters to increase the winning percentages against any established point, when they are playing for real money of course)
as Ahigh says "prove me wrong"

I win with Lay bets period (yahoo! and now windows 10)
I also win with pass line and odds when I have my loss rebate in effect
as well as my don't pass with lay odds too

still, when the 7s are bombing away
most craps players run away,imho, and do not want to win betting for the 7

the most i have heard was on a cold table in Reno where a dealer cashed his check ($800) and went to play craps B4 going home
5 hours later and cashed out with over $25,000 and said the table was the coldest he had ever seen and most all players just kept betting the pass line and place bets
love to hear stories like this

i say fun when it happens and it does way more often than any hot table to wait for

still waiting to hit a 6 point Fire Bet

Quote: odiousgambit

OK, Sally, I know better but I'll bite [having ignored this claim about lay bets about 100 times].

I think what Sally needs to do is show the Wizard just how much he is wrong for claiming the lay bets have a house edge.

you funny
of course Lay bets have a house edge
ask Steve Wynn

Quote: odiousgambit

Think of the fame and fortune, Sally! <snip>Wow!

wow! is right!
some do not want fame
like the Utah Mom from April 2015 and her 163 roll hand record

maybe soon i add my interview with her in my blog
she is very unique i do admit, way more thn i (eye)

la la de da
i have mentioned B4 that making Lay bets at the right time (higher winning probability) is a talent most women have and not men (from my experience)

just what it is
let me see you carry a baby for 9 months and pop it out
i thought so

thank you for sharing as it is what we all due!

Quote: mustangsally

i have mentioned B4 that making Lay bets at the right time (higher winning probability) is a talent most women have and not men (from my experience)

yes, this claim.

I confess I do not have the talent.

Why can't I convince my wife she should try Craps then? She might have the talent and we'll never know!

This problem, women not giving it a try, is widespread don't you think? All they have to do is reach up and start plucking!

I do have good success betting against older white guys. You can see "Seven" written on their foreheads. I'm sure Sally has this talent.

De mango ,

I'm not trying to stalk you. Didn't realize you are on this forum too. Please look at my previous posts. I am not Frank.