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I am just curious as to how bad this hedge bet is for a one time roll. I understand that the yo and hard 10 are horrible bets. And the DP has a HE of 1.36% and the lay bet has a 1.64% HE.

Thanks in advance to all the math wiz out there.

Quote:whodatI understand that hedging is not advocated, especially if you hedge with bets that have a high HE. However I curious as to what the HE is for a complicated hedge bet as follows: $15 DP, No 10 for $60 (commission up front), $1 yo and $4 hard 10. This is a one time roll on the come out only. A 7 hits and I win $9 ($30-15-5-1). An 11 or 12 and I break even. 2 or 3 I win $14 (15-1). Hard 10 I lose $34(62-28). Easy 10 I lose $66.

I am just curious as to how bad this hedge bet is for a one time roll. I understand that the yo and hard 10 are horrible bets. And the DP has a HE of 1.36% and the lay bet has a 1.64% HE.

Thanks in advance to all the math wiz out there.

For craps, what I do is convert to edge per roll, then weight each edge per roll with the amount bet on that bet and combine them together to get a composite edge per roll.

$25 buy 4/10 is 0.3333%

DP is 0.39%

Pass is 0.41%

$20 buy 4/10 is 0.4166%

Place 6/8 is 0.46296%

Field and Hardways are 2.78%

Place 5/9 is 1.1111%

$5 place 4/10 is 1.666%

$10 buy 4/10 is 0.8333%

$15 buy 4/10 is 0.5555%

Easy hops 11.11%

Hard hops 13.89%

If you are coming up with multiple bets to make at the same time, you are better off avoiding bets where your net win is a small amount (EG: always trying to get paid every roll).

Combining the above bets to come up with average HE% per roll:

$120 even (or some multiple of 120) -- ( 0.4166% + 0.46296% ) / 2 = 0.43978%

$110 even (or multiple) -- ( .4166 * 5 + .46296 * 6 ) / 11 = 0.44188%

You have to be careful of betting against yourself.

All of this should be in the FAQ, really. If it's not, it should be.

of course, by many craps experts, it is advocatedQuote:whodatI understand that hedging is not advocated,

this is silly

with craps many of the high HE bets also have a high payoffQuote:whodatespecially if you hedge with bets that have a high HE.

super fun when it hits

as to hedge

i none at my house and really do not see any on my street that have hedges too

lots of no hedge folks around me

(I do not live in Las Vegas unless I am there)

WHY is this complicated?Quote:whodatHowever I curious as to what the HE is for a complicated hedge bet as follows: $15 DP,

No 10 for $60 (commission up front),

$1 yo and $4 hard 10.

in other words

by your standards

what is so complicated about it?

superQuote:whodatThis is a one time roll on the come out only.

an Ahigh type bet NOT on the felt

where do you break even when a 12 rolls?Quote:whodatA 7 hits and I win $9 ($30-15-5-1).

An 11 or 12 and I break even.

in other words

on what casino and where?

you also left out the loss on a 4,5,6

any reason for this??

superQuote:whodat2 or 3 I win $14 (15-1). Hard 10 I lose $34(62-28). Easy 10 I lose $66.

one time roll for one player in their lifetime?Quote:whodatI am just curious as to how bad this hedge bet is for a one time roll.

or a one-time roll 1 million times in their lifetime?

i totally disagree with your last statementQuote:whodatI understand that the yo and hard 10 are horrible bets.

i understand they are FUN bets to make, especially when they win (easier than hitting a Royal Flush)

math wizQuote:whodatAnd the DP has a HE of 1.36% and the lay bet has a 1.64% HE.

Thanks in advance to all the math wiz out there.

they really do not exist

you must first correct your error(s) and offer your reply to your question and why

this is how many learn (many, not all)

I throw out, say, 11.50% HE but one must figure out over what average bet (ugh)

remembers

EV = HE * avg Bet resolved

EV = abouts -2.55 for that one time roll (one time average over say 2 million come out rolls, maybe)

now, just under a 73 cent loss per roll if during every non-point roll all bets are 0

but this is a hedge for that sucker bet dont pass (brother of the pass line)

Sally

For some reason it seems like whenever I bet on the don'ts and the shooter is also shooting from the don'ts is when they roll for 30 minutes and make 4 points. This was no exception, this guy lost all his money shooting from the don'ts and had to pass the dice. The funny thing is that the shooter that took over went out immediately without even rolling a single number.