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whodat
whodat
Joined: May 11, 2015
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June 29th, 2015 at 8:58:37 PM permalink
I understand that hedging is not advocated, especially if you hedge with bets that have a high HE. However I curious as to what the HE is for a complicated hedge bet as follows: $15 DP, No 10 for $60 (commission up front), $1 yo and $4 hard 10. This is a one time roll on the come out only. A 7 hits and I win $9 ($30-15-5-1). An 11 or 12 and I break even. 2 or 3 I win $14 (15-1). Hard 10 I lose $34(62-28). Easy 10 I lose $66.
I am just curious as to how bad this hedge bet is for a one time roll. I understand that the yo and hard 10 are horrible bets. And the DP has a HE of 1.36% and the lay bet has a 1.64% HE.
Thanks in advance to all the math wiz out there.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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June 30th, 2015 at 7:53:35 AM permalink
Quote: whodat

I understand that hedging is not advocated, especially if you hedge with bets that have a high HE. However I curious as to what the HE is for a complicated hedge bet as follows: $15 DP, No 10 for $60 (commission up front), $1 yo and $4 hard 10. This is a one time roll on the come out only. A 7 hits and I win $9 ($30-15-5-1). An 11 or 12 and I break even. 2 or 3 I win $14 (15-1). Hard 10 I lose $34(62-28). Easy 10 I lose $66.
I am just curious as to how bad this hedge bet is for a one time roll. I understand that the yo and hard 10 are horrible bets. And the DP has a HE of 1.36% and the lay bet has a 1.64% HE.
Thanks in advance to all the math wiz out there.



For craps, what I do is convert to edge per roll, then weight each edge per roll with the amount bet on that bet and combine them together to get a composite edge per roll.

$25 buy 4/10 is 0.3333%
DP is 0.39%
Pass is 0.41%
$20 buy 4/10 is 0.4166%
Place 6/8 is 0.46296%
Field and Hardways are 2.78%
Place 5/9 is 1.1111%
$5 place 4/10 is 1.666%
$10 buy 4/10 is 0.8333%
$15 buy 4/10 is 0.5555%
Easy hops 11.11%
Hard hops 13.89%

If you are coming up with multiple bets to make at the same time, you are better off avoiding bets where your net win is a small amount (EG: always trying to get paid every roll).

Combining the above bets to come up with average HE% per roll:

$120 even (or some multiple of 120) -- ( 0.4166% + 0.46296% ) / 2 = 0.43978%
$110 even (or multiple) -- ( .4166 * 5 + .46296 * 6 ) / 11 = 0.44188%

You have to be careful of betting against yourself.

All of this should be in the FAQ, really. If it's not, it should be.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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July 1st, 2015 at 10:03:57 AM permalink
Quote: whodat

I understand that hedging is not advocated,

of course, by many craps experts, it is advocated
this is silly
Quote: whodat

especially if you hedge with bets that have a high HE.

with craps many of the high HE bets also have a high payoff
super fun when it hits
as to hedge
i none at my house and really do not see any on my street that have hedges too
lots of no hedge folks around me
(I do not live in Las Vegas unless I am there)
Quote: whodat

However I curious as to what the HE is for a complicated hedge bet as follows: $15 DP,
No 10 for $60 (commission up front),
$1 yo and $4 hard 10.

WHY is this complicated?
in other words
by your standards
what is so complicated about it?
Quote: whodat

This is a one time roll on the come out only.

super
an Ahigh type bet NOT on the felt
Quote: whodat

A 7 hits and I win $9 ($30-15-5-1).
An 11 or 12 and I break even.

where do you break even when a 12 rolls?
in other words
on what casino and where?

you also left out the loss on a 4,5,6
any reason for this??
Quote: whodat

2 or 3 I win $14 (15-1). Hard 10 I lose $34(62-28). Easy 10 I lose $66.

super
Quote: whodat

I am just curious as to how bad this hedge bet is for a one time roll.

one time roll for one player in their lifetime?

or a one-time roll 1 million times in their lifetime?
Quote: whodat

I understand that the yo and hard 10 are horrible bets.

i totally disagree with your last statement
i understand they are FUN bets to make, especially when they win (easier than hitting a Royal Flush)
Quote: whodat

And the DP has a HE of 1.36% and the lay bet has a 1.64% HE.
Thanks in advance to all the math wiz out there.

math wiz
they really do not exist


you must first correct your error(s) and offer your reply to your question and why
this is how many learn (many, not all)

I throw out, say, 11.50% HE but one must figure out over what average bet (ugh)
remembers
EV = HE * avg Bet resolved

EV = abouts -2.55 for that one time roll (one time average over say 2 million come out rolls, maybe)
now, just under a 73 cent loss per roll if during every non-point roll all bets are 0


but this is a hedge for that sucker bet dont pass (brother of the pass line)
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
whodat
whodat
Joined: May 11, 2015
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July 1st, 2015 at 8:52:11 PM permalink
Thanks for the reply. I realized that I Had left out $1 loss for the 4,5,6,8,9,12. If I play the DP I would normally bet no 10 and DP only. I used to bet DP and small amount on yo and hop the 7, but I'm bleeding too much money in the long run to the house.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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July 2nd, 2015 at 3:57:08 PM permalink
I hedged last week. Had a $20 don't pass bet, didn't realize the shooter was shooting from the don'ts. So I placed the 6 for $18 so I was guaranteed to win $1 or $2.

For some reason it seems like whenever I bet on the don'ts and the shooter is also shooting from the don'ts is when they roll for 30 minutes and make 4 points. This was no exception, this guy lost all his money shooting from the don'ts and had to pass the dice. The funny thing is that the shooter that took over went out immediately without even rolling a single number.

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