Average payout question

In craps, pretend that you play every roll with $25 on the don't pass line. Once a point is established place money directly on that number. So if a ten is rolled place $15 on the ten. This way if the point is rolled or a seven you still win money. If you adjust your place eager to make money on all the other possible points, could you make enough money to counter a seven out of a gate, since a seven is a loss for the don't pass line

It's kinda like the martingale, slow winnings til you hit a streak of come out sevens and point sevens don't help either. Doesn't beat the house advantage. I can admit I did this before.

Quote: blackjackryan

In craps, pretend that you play every roll with $25 on the don't pass line. Once a point is established place money directly on that number. So if a ten is rolled place $15 on the ten. This way if the point is rolled or a seven you still win money. If you adjust your place eager to make money on all the other possible points, could you make enough money to counter a seven out of a gate, since a seven is a loss for the don't pass line

Why, I just wrote an Article on this very thing:

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/Snake-Oil-Salesmen-Selling-Systems/

The main difference being that the Bets are $30 and $30 on the Place/Buy.

If you reduce the Place/Buy bets such that you will just eke out a profit when the Point Number hits, then the combined House Edge of all of your bets would be reduced compared to what is in this Article because you would not be betting as much money on higher edge bets. However, you would need more winning events (Point Established/Made) to overcome every Come Out loss than what my article would state.

Since the probability of Establishing a Point and Making it is:

(6/36 * 3/9) + (8/36 * 4/10) + (10/36 * 5/11) = 0.2707070707

For every Come Out roll, and the probability of losing your $25 (allowing for offsets) on the Come Out roll is:***

(5/36) = 0.13888888888

That's going to be one heck of an uphill battle. Your best result, for instance, is something like $15 on the Ten and winning, which would get you a win of $27, representing a Net Profit of $2 when you consider you lost the $25 Don't Pass bet.

Yeah, you're going to have to hit a TON of those to make up for those losses on the Come Out roll.

***Offsets are used in the Article as in 3 offsets 11 and Snake Eyes offsets one of the Sevens...in the long run. Mathematically, expressing the Come Out roll expectation for a Don't Pass bet, with the bet being x, as:

(5/36 * x) * (-1)

OR

(3/36 * x) - (8/36 * x)

Would be the same exact result.

Would it be any different if instead of putting 30 on each, you bet so you would win money if a seven was rolled but only break even if the point was rolled. Like with the ten you could bet $30 on the don't pass, however it would only take $20 on the ten to at least break even. Instead of trying to make the money based off the point getting rolled, you were trying to make money based off a seven getting rolled and only used the place bet as a safety

Quote: blackjackryan

Would it be any different if instead of putting 30 on each, you bet so you would win money if a seven was rolled but only break even if the point was rolled. Like with the ten you could bet $30 on the don't pass, however it would only take $20 on the ten to at least break even. Instead of trying to make the money based off the point getting rolled, you were trying to make money based off a seven getting rolled and only used the place bet as a safety

I hope that you read the Article, and if so, I would respectfully suggest that you might want to read it again because the concept quoted above is no different, just a little bit less bad than the concept in your OP.

To put it simply, the casino's entire advantage on the Don't Pass bet is on the Come Out roll. You either Establish a Point, win on the Come Out roll, (2, 3) Push on the Come Out roll (12) or lose on the Come Out roll (7, 11). You are most likely to Establish a Point on the Come Out Roll, two out of three Come Out rolls, in the long run, will result in a Point Established. However, on those 12/36 rolls when a Point is not Established, with a Don't Pass bet, three result in you winning, one is a Push and eight result in you losing.

If you are betting on the Pass Line, this is the same concept, but in reverse. The casino's advantage comes from rolls in which a Point is Established, because you are more likely to win on the Come Out roll than to lose on it.

Therefore, any bet that you make that offsets a Don't Pass bet after a Point is Established...AT ALL...will increase the House Edge on your overall action. The first reason is because any bets that you would make offsetting that will have a higher House Edge than the Don't Pass bet itself, the second reason is that, once a Point is Established, your VALUE cannot possibly be better on the Don't Pass bet. You're getting paid even money when the most likely result, at that point, is that you will win the bet.

fun question
here is my try
I used the perfect 1980
right Alan Shank!

Quote: blackjackryan

In craps, pretend that you play every roll with $25 on the don't pass line.

ok pretend

Quote: blackjackryan

Once a point is established place money directly on that number.

in other words, make a PLACE BET on the established point

Quote: blackjackryan

So if a ten is rolled place $15 on the ten.

ok

Quote: blackjackryan

This way if the point is rolled or a seven you still win money.

you can answer your last question after this
how much money on average "average payout question" do you win

Here is without the PLACE BET system (basic play)
1/3 * -$25 (dpass lost) +
2/3 * $25 (dpass win) =

-25/3 + 50/3 = 25/3 or
$25/3 or $8.33 avg win


you now want this (pretending)
1/3 * $2 (dpass lost) +
2/3 * $10 (dpass win) =

2/3 + 20/3 = 22/3 or
$22/3 or $7.33 avg win

while pretending...
we have an average win of $1 LESS
cool!
pretending IS fun!

edited for right:
i get the edge for this combined (pretend) system (place 4 and 10 when the point IS) = -1005 / 54,450
or
-1.85% (I count pushes because and 1.85% is on a higher average bet - no pretending)


just a $25 dpass to compare




pretend
more comps
more frequency of wins
more fun

except if you want to win MORE real money

just pretending
thank you for sharing
Sally