Weeding out "crappy" shooters
June 2nd, 2015 at 3:07:42 AM
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Anyone use a strategy similar to the 5-count to weed out bad shooters?
It was a miracle I went home with any profit my last two sessions since there were so many shooters who couldn't get past 3-4 rolls.
I remember there was an unbelievable run of half the table PSO'ing!
I'm now thinking I better wait for shooters to roll 6 box numbers before I place my across bet.
If I had done this last night, I would've made so much more profit.
It was a miracle I went home with any profit my last two sessions since there were so many shooters who couldn't get past 3-4 rolls.
I remember there was an unbelievable run of half the table PSO'ing!
I'm now thinking I better wait for shooters to roll 6 box numbers before I place my across bet.
If I had done this last night, I would've made so much more profit.
June 2nd, 2015 at 4:00:36 AM
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I have a better idea for lousy shooters
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 2nd, 2015 at 4:50:48 AM
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5 count system has been developed by FS under the influence of captain Morgan. It meant quite the opposite to what you just said. You expect a shooter to throw a 7 after someone shoots 5 times. Never the less you got the right idea of how to play the game. Crowded condition, one bad shooter after another, overall nervousness, maniacs, idiots destroying good rolls by arguing over $5 bet, these and other factors are the recipes for a disaster.
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:18:09 AM
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Any math experts here who can calculate the percent of bad shooters I'll weed out if I wait for 6 box numbers to roll before betting?
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:35:30 AM
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not IQuote: drjohnnyAnyone use a strategy similar to the 5-count to weed out bad shooters?
I bet FOR bad shooters (in other words - i want more of them) as there are more of them than good consistent ones
imo,
that 5-count method is seriously flawed
a simple example
18 GTC DIs at a craps table
this roll by a top notched DI (say Frank S has the dice)
7,11,7,7,7
the 5-count STILL at 0
and all 17 other players at the table are not making one bet
getting bored with pocket pool
and with the 5-count
(in other words, NEVER use the 5-count. It is a superstition based method (pushed by Frank S and his team)
and one can do ALWAYS better with just ANY math based method)
the 6 count and bet is a better method that comes to mind
and out-performs the 5-count as i have posted that B4
even ESP betting is far superior
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:37:37 AM
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Quote: drjohnnyAny math experts here who can calculate the percent of bad shooters I'll weed out if I wait for 6 box numbers to roll before betting?
Are you really asking math experts to make a calculation based on the premise of 'bad shooters'? Why would waiting 6 box numbers change the odds of seven out on any subsequent rolls?
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:51:02 AM
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Quote: MidwestAPAre you really asking math experts to make a calculation based on the premise of 'bad shooters'? Why would waiting 6 box numbers change the odds of seven out on any subsequent rolls?
I know waiting for 6 box numbers won't affect the house edge of any bet or the probability of a 7 appearing (1 in 6), but it will definitely save me money in the long run since I won't have to deal with terrible shooters who go out after only a few rolls.
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:55:46 AM
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not this early, noQuote: drjohnnyAny math experts here
my tryQuote: drjohnnywho can calculate the percent of bad shooters I'll weed out if I wait for 6 box numbers to roll before betting?
is
6 * (36/24) = 9
so it takes on average 9 rolls to see 6 box numbers, except if you are Ahigh or Frank S,
so
what percentage of shooters make that 10th roll in one hand?
31.9390699%
say 32%
that to me eliminates 68% of the shooters, some good and some bad
best i can do right now
others should be around shortly
time for breakfast and my ESP training
Sally
added
i simulated this for fun
1 million shooters
621,128 made 5 or less box numbers in their hand
62.1%
no bet on those crappy shooters
that is for those that do not make the 9th bet in their hand
62.98%
ok, that seems right
I Heart Vi Hart
June 2nd, 2015 at 6:01:56 AM
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Quote: drjohnnyI know waiting for 6 box numbers won't affect the house edge of any bet or the probability of a 7 appearing (1 in 6), but it will definitely save me money in the long run since I won't have to deal with terrible shooters who go out after only a few rolls.
True enough, but it also won't let you capitalize on the 'good' shooters who make 6 box numbers only to 7 out on the next roll, your first one. What this can do is reduce variance, both positive and negative, and will save you some money in the end, but only because you aren't exposing you money to a negative EV on every roll. Similarly, I can reduce my variance to zero by never playing, or almost zero by waiting for 500 box numbers before I place a bet.
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:26:48 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitI have a better idea for lousy shooters
Why are you pointing that thing at me?
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
June 2nd, 2015 at 2:40:35 PM
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"Bad shooters"
"Idiots destroying good rolls by arguing"
Embarrassing stuff! I thought most people on here had a clue?!
"Idiots destroying good rolls by arguing"
Embarrassing stuff! I thought most people on here had a clue?!
June 2nd, 2015 at 4:57:42 PM
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if you waited for 6 box numbers to be rolled here you might make a bet once an hour. a guy rolls 10 times he is considered a dice god.
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:26:15 PM
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Every single craps player is a bad shooter because craps is a negative expectation game.
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:39:04 PM
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For the most part you're correct. There's Rare occasions someone actually has +EV and it has nothing to do with skill.Quote: sodawaterEvery single craps player is a bad shooter because craps is a negative expectation game.
Nothing wrong with playing craps or an occasional -EV game. But it's silly to believe all this good shooter/hot cold and DI BS. That's how people foolishly end up losing eventually. The addictions somehow sets in easier when people believe all this BS.
I'm always amazed how some seemingly smart people get sucked in to this nonsense. It's like they really believe there's something to it. Even people who can do all the math and calculate all the odds.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:39:22 PM
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You funnyQuote: mustangsallynot this early, no
Heard anymore about the monster monster roll that hub was present for?
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:42:25 PM
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Quote: odiousgambitI have a better idea for lousy shooters
That is why I will only bet at craps and not shoot. The six times I have shot, I have 7'd on every second roll.
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:46:45 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfThe addictions somehow sets in easier when people believe all this BS.
I think it is similar to what Richard Prior said about cocaine. He said, "coke will make a new man out of you,,,the problem is, then the new man wants some".
The worst thing that can happen to people with a propensity to addiction, is to win big at their first few craps games.
June 2nd, 2015 at 6:12:26 PM
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here is more from my simulationQuote: drjohnnycalculate the percent of bad shooters I'll weed out if I wait for 6 box numbers to roll before betting?
i rounded the percentages too (2)
| Box #s | exactly X | X or less | Box #s |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 1 |
| 2 | 13.3% | 33.2% | 2 |
| 3 | 11.6% | 44.8% | 3 |
| 4 | 9.4% | 54.2% | 4 |
| 5 | 7.9% | 62.1% | 5 |
| 6 | 6.5% | 68.6% | 6 |
| 7 | 5.4% | 74.0% | 7 |
| 8 | 4.4% | 78.5% | 8 |
| 9 | 3.7% | 82.2% | 9 |
| 10 | 3.1% | 85.2% | 10 |
| 11 | 2.5% | 87.8% | 11 |
| 12 | 2.1% | 89.9% | 12 |
| 13 | 1.7% | 91.6% | 13 |
hope this helps out
i figure ESP helps out way better than using a basic system (BS)
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
June 2nd, 2015 at 6:20:27 PM
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yes sirQuote: petroglyphHeard anymore about the monster monster roll that hub was present for?
163 rolls
even saw an article about it but that also has been removed from the internet as far as i can tell
my husband's boss has a few photos of the Mom and the casino but he too wants to keep them to himself
seems to be a BIG legal thing to hide the identity of the new world record holder for a craps hand
next month i plan to go to Utah (i be there anyways) and see if i can find out more there
maybe she still needs help of some kind
and us girls need to stick together
I Heart Vi Hart
June 2nd, 2015 at 6:36:59 PM
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Sally, thanks for the table.
My ESP was off last night and I almost went on full tilt after the first few shooters I bet on quickly sevened out.
From what I remember, only 3 shooters were able to hit +10 box numbers... a guy who looked like Fat Albert, my friend, and yours truly.
My friend had an amazing roll that was in the 50 range and he was the main reason why I was able to triple my buy-in.
Maybe I'll try betting a $5 don't with at least 20x odds for most shooters and then switch to betting across once they roll 6 box numbers and my ESP kicks in.
My ESP was off last night and I almost went on full tilt after the first few shooters I bet on quickly sevened out.
From what I remember, only 3 shooters were able to hit +10 box numbers... a guy who looked like Fat Albert, my friend, and yours truly.
My friend had an amazing roll that was in the 50 range and he was the main reason why I was able to triple my buy-in.
Maybe I'll try betting a $5 don't with at least 20x odds for most shooters and then switch to betting across once they roll 6 box numbers and my ESP kicks in.
June 2nd, 2015 at 6:42:11 PM
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Quote: RaleighCraps
Why are you pointing that thing at me?
He's not. At that angle it wouldn't even clip OJ's giant afro. Whoever is holding it is a crappy shooter. Hey-yo.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:34:36 PM
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Quote: mason2386
That is why I will only bet at craps and not shoot. The six times I have shot, I have 7'd on every second roll.
Amazing with that talent you could clean up on the don'ts. Oh, you don't want to win, you want to gamble. Nevermind.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
June 2nd, 2015 at 8:50:46 PM
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theres a new crap world record? how many hours was it? rolls?
June 3rd, 2015 at 12:21:15 AM
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The worst shooters in the world roll a 7 every 6 rolls.
The best shooters do too.
The best shooters do too.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
June 3rd, 2015 at 5:57:51 AM
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I usually stand beside the table and watch the dice work around the table. I get an idea on how to bet. And while it doesn't work 100% of the time, it seems to work for me. (And I have stopped shooting the dice myself.)
A good example from this Saturday, the table was pretty hot all the way around, and made some good coin. The clown next to me kept increasing his pass line bet, and not putting down an odds bet. And he would also bet $10 on the 4 & 10 each round. When it was his turn to shoot, I bet on the DP and laid max odds. His three rolls 3-4-7. Win for me!
Like I said, does it work like this every time? No. Of course not. But I do pretty well with my strategy.
A good example from this Saturday, the table was pretty hot all the way around, and made some good coin. The clown next to me kept increasing his pass line bet, and not putting down an odds bet. And he would also bet $10 on the 4 & 10 each round. When it was his turn to shoot, I bet on the DP and laid max odds. His three rolls 3-4-7. Win for me!
Like I said, does it work like this every time? No. Of course not. But I do pretty well with my strategy.
June 3rd, 2015 at 6:57:21 AM
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Quote: djatcThe worst shooters in the world roll a 7 every 6 rolls.
The best shooters do too.
deleted. Too early in the day for an argument over grammar.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
June 3rd, 2015 at 7:09:38 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitI have a better idea for lousy shooters
"I know what you're thinking: 'Did he hit six box numbers, or only five?' Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I've kinda lost track myself. But you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk?"
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
June 3rd, 2015 at 7:50:18 AM
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no wayQuote: djatcThe worst shooters in the world roll a 7 every 6 rolls.
every 6 rolls
at the game of craps you just made a false statement
but this is expected from a video poker player, in my opinion
a more closer to a true statement
would be the worst shooters in craps
7 out on either their 3rd or 2nd roll counting the 1st roll
and it can NOT get any worse than that
(and those rolls are the most common ones to 7 out on! who would have thought!!)
except (as an example) when Ahigh is the shooter and his first roll = 2,3 or 12
he then passes the dice
super funny
I saw him do that once
one time too many times for me
you still here?Quote: djatcThe best shooters do too.
thank you for another FALSE statement
example: Frank S claims to roll a 7 every 10 rolls (he is that good one must assume)
hey, a seat is open i see
at your favorite video poker machine that IS +EV with mailers and cash back and free play offers
your next 16 hours are taken and have fun
JUMP!
thank you for adding funny stuff
I Heart Vi Hart
June 3rd, 2015 at 7:59:41 AM
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so is the claim of a few that was there and only a few were thereQuote: champ724theres a new crap world record?
i hear under 2.5 hours but no video of it has been shownQuote: champ724how many hours was it?
163 or 164Quote: champ724rolls?
there is not an agreement on that
i say 163 rolls as does a few news headlines i have seen
but it is like pulling teeth trying to find out what really did happen
the single Mom was not supposed to be in any casino, (i wonder why that is)
but she was
she won $$$$ but has not said how much
my husband and his boss won a lot of money too, but we already have a lot of money so...
one may never know the truth
but 163 rolls IS a great new craps record
my husband did say she set the dice a few times but most times just picked them up and let them fly!
he did say many times (at least 10) he had to pick up one die that made it to the floor
I Heart Vi Hart
June 3rd, 2015 at 8:18:43 AM
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a general idea or a specific one?Quote: SkittleCar1I usually stand beside the table and watch the dice work around the table.
I get an idea on how to bet.
what does not work 100% of the time, the idea?Quote: SkittleCar1And while it doesn't work 100% of the time,
what is ITQuote: SkittleCar1it
wowQuote: SkittleCar1seems to work for me. (And I have stopped shooting the dice myself.)
Oh, finallyQuote: SkittleCar1A good example from this Saturday,
not ugly hotQuote: SkittleCar1the table was pretty hot all the way around,
and what exactly IS hot by your standards
not pretty goodQuote: SkittleCar1and made some good coin.
so you are a clown too?Quote: SkittleCar1The clown next to me
that is so cool
what IS the chance that 2 clowns are standing next to each other at a craps table?
poker players know the answer to that
any system that does pretty well as apposed to ugly wellQuote: SkittleCar1But I do pretty well with my strategy.
well
well
thank you so much for the entertainment
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
June 3rd, 2015 at 9:39:00 AM
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I am not sure what your point is?
June 3rd, 2015 at 11:20:26 AM
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i asked a few specific questions about what you wrote (JUNEbe they are general questions)Quote: SkittleCar1I am not sure what your point is?
as it appears to me
how you "weed out "crappy" shooters"
is not that clear, i mean, you have an idea
it is OK (perfectly) to not answer any of questions I asked
really
thank you for sharing
I Heart Vi Hart
June 3rd, 2015 at 1:07:26 PM
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Quote: RaleighCrapsdeleted. Too early in the day for an argument over grammar.
I blame my public school edumacation
The grammar may be wrong but my math is on point
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
June 3rd, 2015 at 3:03:57 PM
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Quote: djatcThe worst shooters in the world roll a 7 every 6 rolls.
The best shooters do too.
I once rolled the dice six times and had four sevens. What does that make me?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
June 3rd, 2015 at 3:05:58 PM
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Quote: thecesspitI once rolled the dice six times and had four sevens. What does that make me?
Somewhere between the best and the worst. Not valedictorian status :)
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
June 3rd, 2015 at 3:17:22 PM
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Bane of the don'ts.Quote: thecesspitI once rolled the dice six times and had four sevens. What does that make me?
June 3rd, 2015 at 8:17:15 PM
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Quote: djatcI blame my public school edumacation
The grammar may be wrong but my math is on point
What you meant to say, is different than what you have written. You wrote that a 7 will show up every six rolls for a bad shooter, or for a good one. That is not correct, as Sally also was pointing out in her post. The average, given enough roll data, will be one 7 for every 6 rolls of the dice, but it is highly doubtful that you will see a 7 every six rolls........
Like I said, it was too early for this argument, although I guess it is more about semantics, and not so much grammar.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
June 3rd, 2015 at 8:33:32 PM
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It being later in day, I take the liberty of pointing out that standard conversational English requires the phrase "different from" rather than "different than."Quote: RaleighCrapsWhat you meant to say, is different than what you have written.....Like I said, it was too early for this argument, although I guess it is more about semantics, and not so much grammar.
June 4th, 2015 at 3:05:26 AM
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Quote: RaleighCrapsWhy are you pointing that thing at me?
No way. You have won big, much bigger than I ever have, so what we saw in Cherokee was just a momentary lapse. Just figure out what you did to anger the dice gods in the meantime LOL
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 4th, 2015 at 8:28:24 AM
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Quote: SanchoPanzaIt being later in day, I take the liberty of pointing out that standard conversational English requires the phrase "different from" rather than "different than."
touché ;-)
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
June 4th, 2015 at 11:28:45 PM
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Someone should have bet me what I just said, since I totally spaced out....
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
June 5th, 2015 at 3:34:41 AM
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Quote: mustangsallyso is the claim of a few that was there and only a few were there
i hear under 2.5 hours but no video of it has been shown
163 or 164
there is not an agreement on that
i say 163 rolls as does a few news headlines i have seen
but it is like pulling teeth trying to find out what really did happen
the single Mom was not supposed to be in any casino, (i wonder why that is)
but she was
she won $$$$ but has not said how much
my husband and his boss won a lot of money too, but we already have a lot of money so...
one may never know the truth
but 163 rolls IS a great new craps record
my husband did say she set the dice a few times but most times just picked them up and let them fly!
he did say many times (at least 10) he had to pick up one die that made it to the floor
You got to love stories like the above, that are all hearsay and nothing else.
Quote: mustangsallyyes sir
163 rolls
even saw an article about it but that also has been removed from the internet as far as i can tell
my husband's boss has a few photos of the Mom and the casino but he too wants to keep them to himself
seems to be a BIG legal thing to hide the identity of the new world record holder for a craps hand
next month i plan to go to Utah (i be there anyways) and see if i can find out more there
maybe she still needs help of some kind
and us girls need to stick together
Why would you post a roll that can not be proven?
Are you writing a book?
Why do you need to go to Utah to find out about this roll that you say happened?
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...!
You do good brada ..!
superrick
Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction
http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php
...
June 5th, 2015 at 3:57:22 AM
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+163 or 164.Quote: superrickYou got to love stories like the above, that are all hearsay and nothing else.
Why would you post a roll that can not be proven?
Are you writing a book?
Why do you need to go to Utah to find out about this roll that you say happened?
Go to to Utah to find out? Hell I would be ashamed to even google it.
The record still stands, some old lady who never heard of DI holds it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 5th, 2015 at 11:16:19 AM
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what i really love about it is that the single Mom, and i did find out her name but will not mention it here,Quote: superrickYou got to love stories like the above, that are all hearsay and nothing else.
was not supposed to be in a casino, and the reason for that is the mystery,
and the 3 dealers i interviewed about her record setting craps hand of 163 rolls
know her and 2 of the dealers think she actually did 7 out a few times while she had the dice (of course they took breaks and did not see all of her rolls)
no other records have been proven (like video proof and stuff that one can sink their teeth intoQuote: superrickWhy would you post a roll that can not be proven?
casinos had the videos, even of Grandma Pat, but they never show any of it as i guess one could not see the result from every dice roll but could figure it out from the bets, JUNEby
noQuote: superrickAre you writing a book?
my husband, his boss and 3 craps dealers said it happened, but the facts are still a mysteryQuote: superrickWhy do you need to go to Utah to find out about this roll that you say happened?
MAYbe she needs money, i have lots to give, and is in trouble and i can help her out
i saw of few pics of her so i know a female was at the same craps table my husband was at
the dealers confirmed at least that to me
thank you for asking
but really
no one cares about a craps record
because
records are made to be broken
ask Frank S about that one
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
June 5th, 2015 at 11:37:54 AM
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Quote: mustangsallybut 163 rolls IS a great new craps record
Quote:...he did say many times (at least 10) he had to pick up one die that made it to the floor
What does Sally say?
Are the ten that flew off the table counted in the 163 or 4?
In the total amount thrown, are some of the tosses losers or are they all not loss of the turn throws?
Have you met a proficient DI?
June 5th, 2015 at 1:21:40 PM
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Yup, blew the print preview up to 300% to get most of what Sally said.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
June 5th, 2015 at 1:25:42 PM
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Did someone ask her to explain things using smaller words so that it would be easier to understand?
June 5th, 2015 at 1:44:49 PM
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Quote: Dalex64Did someone ask her to explain things using smaller words so that it would be easier to understand?
Just click on the Quote button to reply to the post, and you can clearly see what MS wrote........ Then cancel out
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
June 5th, 2015 at 1:45:08 PM
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Quote: mustangsallywhat i really love about it is that the single Mom, and i did find out her name but will not mention it here,Quote: superrickYou got to love stories like the above, that are all hearsay and nothing else.
was not supposed to be in a casino, and the reason for that is the mystery,
and the 3 dealers i interviewed about her record setting craps hand of 163 rolls
know her and 2 of the dealers think she actually did 7 out a few times while she had the dice (of course they took breaks and did not see all of her rolls)no other records have been proven (like video proof and stuff that one can sink their teeth intoQuote: superrickWhy would you post a roll that can not be proven?
casinos had the videos, even of Grandma Pat, but they never show any of it as i guess one could not see the result from every dice roll but could figure it out from the bets, JUNEby
nomy husband, his boss and 3 craps dealers said it happened, but the facts are still a mysteryQuote: superrickWhy do you need to go to Utah to find out about this roll that you say happened?
MAYbe she needs money, i have lots to give, and is in trouble and i can help her out
i saw of few pics of her so i know a female was at the same craps table my husband was at
the dealers confirmed at least that to me
thank you for asking
but really
no one cares about a craps record
because
records are made to be broken
ask Frank S about that one
Sally
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
