Hop bet question
Thread Rating:
May 5th, 2015 at 10:05:48 AM
permalink
Saw this play last night... and while I'm more than aware that the hop bets cannot be beaten (just as any other bet on the table) ... I was curious as to if there are any changes to the expectations.
A player made hop bets on all of the numbers on the easy side, without the sevens or the craps/yo.
That's a total of 10 bets at $5 each. When one hit, he made $30. That's a 3:5 payout.
He had a 20 winning combinations and 16 losing combinations (or a 5:4 positive expectation).
How do I figure the combined house edge of the bet? Seems like it's not a horrible way to bet, but then again, it is a center bet, and I know those are for suckers.
A player made hop bets on all of the numbers on the easy side, without the sevens or the craps/yo.
That's a total of 10 bets at $5 each. When one hit, he made $30. That's a 3:5 payout.
He had a 20 winning combinations and 16 losing combinations (or a 5:4 positive expectation).
How do I figure the combined house edge of the bet? Seems like it's not a horrible way to bet, but then again, it is a center bet, and I know those are for suckers.
May 5th, 2015 at 10:56:31 AM
permalink
nice question
but the players also covered the hardways as they are not a one roll bet
like this
try
20/36 * 30 +
16/36 * -50 = ev
then
ev/50 = he
hint
all the bets have the same he, i think, so i doubt it will change combined
let us know if you need more and/or different help
Sally
i have seen this a few times in me time at the tables tooQuote: PlayYourCardsRightA player made hop bets on all of the numbers on the easy side, without the sevens or the craps/yo.
but the players also covered the hardways as they are not a one roll bet
at least the hops paid 15 to 1 instead of 15 for 1Quote: PlayYourCardsRightThat's a total of 10 bets at $5 each. When one hit, he made $30. That's a 3:5 payout.
He had a 20 winning combinations and 16 losing combinations (or a 5:4 positive expectation).
How do I figure the combined house edge of the bet? Seems like it's not a horrible way to bet, but then again, it is a center bet, and I know those are for suckers.
like this
try
20/36 * 30 +
16/36 * -50 = ev
then
ev/50 = he
hint
all the bets have the same he, i think, so i doubt it will change combined
let us know if you need more and/or different help
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
May 5th, 2015 at 4:24:25 PM
permalink
Quote: mustangsally
all the bets have the same he, i think, so i doubt it will change combined
I agree. The bets combined have the same house edge as each individual bet (~11.11%).
So, this player is losing ~$5.56 each roll in the long run on these wagers. ($50.00 * 11.11% = $5.56)
YouCanBetOnThat.com, a podcast for the recreational gambler
May 5th, 2015 at 10:02:37 PM
permalink
betting the 10 hops has created a multi-bet Lay bet
like place bets across
a high probability of a small win (relative to the total wager)
and a lower probability of a larger loss (the total bet)
say he has $500 to start
10X the bet
the chance to turn $500 into at least $1000 is abouts 2.4% (1 in 42)
yuk
with this Lay bet
13% chance to be totally wiped out, oh much nicer
the other is to have less than $50 to at least eat and drink something B4 the trip home
(comps could be good)
like place bets across
a high probability of a small win (relative to the total wager)
and a lower probability of a larger loss (the total bet)
say he has $500 to start
10X the bet
the chance to turn $500 into at least $1000 is abouts 2.4% (1 in 42)
yuk
with this Lay bet
13% chance to be totally wiped out, oh much nicer
the other is to have less than $50 to at least eat and drink something B4 the trip home
(comps could be good)
I Heart Vi Hart
