Thread Rating:

MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 6526
August 8th, 2015 at 2:01:10 PM permalink
Quote: DoubleOrNothing

It's far better to not understand something, and be left to ponder it, then to "understand" cool gibberish, and waste your life or the forum's life (whichever comes first) on it.

Nothing about AP gambling math in practice has been proved out.


You should take your own advice. That you believe casino advantage play isn't provably successful in practice tells me you haven't actually been paying attention for, oh, fifty years or so. There are games in casinos *right now* that yield player advantages without cheating and there have been for decades. That won't change just because you don't believe it.

It seems likely that you personally aren't playing with a mathematical advantage, but that certainly doesn't mean nobody is.

You should go back to using the chatbot. The software-generated language may have been obtuse but at least it wasn't flat-out wrong.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
eclectic
eclectic
Joined: Jan 3, 2016
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 105
October 21st, 2016 at 12:28:00 PM permalink
Please can anybody help me? I have read through page 43 of the 78 + pages of this topic by EagleEye. My eyes are glazing over and I am weary. What's the practical take away knowledge and am I wrong assuming the dice are unbalanced? What's the best betting strategy for playing with unbalanced dice apart from not playing? From what I have read thus far here is my 2-cents.

* Unbalanced die favor one die number or outcomes of more 7s which are mostly: 1,2,5, and 6 due to the combination of gravity and centrifical force.

* The 7 Outs heavily favor the casinos bottom line by winning more money from both the do players and don't players.

My own take away strategy using this info would be making the 'no 4 bet' or laying all the box numbers on the comeout. (Assming the unbalance does not
favor the 3 or 4.) Also, making Patrick's ricochet bet, or some form of the horn or whirl bet.

Is that anything of further value than what I have cited from pages 43 - 78? I admit to being confused because I though someone had said a good bet would be to 'buy the 4' which contradicts my idea of laying the 4.

Apart from the above, I'd like to hear your thoughts or comments.

Thank you!
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2952
October 21st, 2016 at 1:07:58 PM permalink
78 pages of garbage. What else do you need to know?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Calder
Calder
Joined: Mar 26, 2010
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 531
October 21st, 2016 at 6:08:26 PM permalink
Using a John Patrick strategy to defeat EagleEye's unbalanced dice is an excellent plan.
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 997
October 21st, 2016 at 8:19:26 PM permalink
it might help to know.eagleye.............nuts. John patrick.......nuts
get second you pig
eclectic
eclectic
Joined: Jan 3, 2016
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 105
October 22nd, 2016 at 5:53:50 AM permalink
Thank you for your response, Calder.

Fwiw, I hope the following is a much improved version of my question. Same content, but perhaps a bit clearer. Cheers
=====================================================

So, what is the practical take away information from the Craps Smackdown: Eagleeye2 vs Random Roller?

If RR is correct, then there is no take away? If EE is correct, then one needs to be able to determine IF the dice are unbalanced and either don't play; or devise a betting strategy to take advantage of the imbalance. Any simple visualization or optics, to make a determination? What about the ritual one sees some shooters do called 'training' or teaching the dice?

Correct my thinking. Unbalanced die favor one die number appearing over another; or outcomes of more 7s. Those one die numbers are mostly: 1,2,5, and 6 due to the combination of gravity and centrifical force. The 7 Outs heavily favor the casinos bottom line by winning more money from both the do players and don't players.

My own take away strategy using this info would be making the 'no 4 bet' or laying all the box numbers on the comeout. (Assming the unbalance does not favor the 3 or 4. Favoring the 3 or 4 numbers for the 7 out would seem to favor more 6s or 8s?)

Another possible strategy might be to follow Patrick's ricochet bet. Or some Horn or Whirl bet methodology.

Thoughts or comments?
.
Thank you!
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 99
  • Posts: 14234
October 22nd, 2016 at 7:34:03 AM permalink
There is really, imo, no takeaway except self-delusion and speculation. Sorry. You asked. Not real-world useful.

If the casino were to use unbalanced dice, they would just be offering an edge to someone since you can bet any conceivable combination if there was an edge. They're not going to do that. They win enough with the independent house edge on every bet.

If dice setting worked, they would not allow the players to touch the dice. They would be thrown mechanically or by the house from a cup or something. That they don't should mean something significant to you.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Calder
Calder
Joined: Mar 26, 2010
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 531
October 22nd, 2016 at 8:29:28 AM permalink
This board needs a sarcasm font.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 99
  • Posts: 14234
October 22nd, 2016 at 9:07:10 AM permalink
Quote: Calder

This board needs a sarcasm font.



Yep. Failing that, some use /Sarcasm to good effect.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 6526
October 22nd, 2016 at 9:23:44 AM permalink
If the dice are biased, just play follow-the-last on pass/don't pass. With fair dice those two bets have roughly the same edge. With biased dice, one of them will be better than the other -- and because they both pay 1-1, the way that will manifest is that one of the bets wins more frequently. If the dice are biased enough to significantly impact the probability of a winning line bet, follow-the-last is a zero-knowledge way to take advantage of it. That is, you don't need any specific knowledge of how the dice are biased. If the dice aren't biased enough to matter then, by definition, it won't matter.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563

  • Jump to: