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NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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July 17th, 2015 at 4:58:46 AM permalink
Quote: slackyhacky



I lay the 10. Maybe I should Lay the 4.



I think since the "6 pits" along with the five and four would weight more, they would tend to be face(side) down more, therefore you should indeed keep laying the ten, not switch to the four.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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July 17th, 2015 at 1:18:38 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Surely even if you could only make 40 'good' shots per day, you could still play with an advantage and make a nice profit. 40 shots at a 1% per roll advantage would $40 if you had $100 out... and craps being what it is, you could have more on the table and not raise any suspicions. $500 at risk per shot, $5 EV per shot, $200/day EV. Plug in some variance numbers and you can work out ROR and all that good stuff. Only bet big when you have the bones, play at maintenance level until it's your turn to shoot.

If you're putting $500 out per roll, you'd be able to reserve your own table almost anywhere other than the Strip. Especially if you're only going to make 40 rolls and you're not playing during evenings/weekends. Wake up in the morning, have some coffee, go to the casino, play on your private $500 table for 30 minutes, make an average of $200, go about your day. Over $70,000/year in expected profit from working less than an hour a day, no need to wait for anyone else or make smaller bets on random rollers like me.

If I was a mythical AP craps player who could control the dice, I'd never play at a full table and pay the house edge on other people's rolls. That'd be like playing for a +EV slot progressive and then staying at the machine after someone else hit it. If you could play +EV craps, why would you ever play otherwise?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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July 17th, 2015 at 3:00:46 PM permalink
Mathextremist


Have you ever played craps????

dicesetter
superrick
superrick
Joined: Jul 14, 2010
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July 17th, 2015 at 3:22:45 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Mathextremist


Have you ever played craps????

dicesetter


Good question
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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July 17th, 2015 at 4:01:32 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

If you're putting $500 out per roll, you'd be able to reserve your own table almost anywhere other than the Strip. Especially if you're only going to make 40 rolls and you're not playing during evenings/weekends. Wake up in the morning, have some coffee, go to the casino, play on your private $500 table for 30 minutes, make an average of $200, go about your day. Over $70,000/year in expected profit from working less than an hour a day, no need to wait for anyone else or make smaller bets on random rollers like me.

If I was a mythical AP craps player who could control the dice, I'd never play at a full table and pay the house edge on other people's rolls. That'd be like playing for a +EV slot progressive and then staying at the machine after someone else hit it. If you could play +EV craps, why would you ever play otherwise?

Unfortunately don't understand the mentality of most craps players(Well, maybe you actually do). They love the excitement, the crowd and people watching them shoot. I see it all the time, so called AP DI's cramming into full tables next to the rest of the suckers on Friday night. Meanwhile there's a half table where you can shoot with limited people and get yourself inches away from the back wall.

Assuming there's such as advantage craps play, ask yourself why they choose craps over the many other much more valuable PROVEN methods? Had someone like dicesitter put 7 years of effort into legitimate AP. I'm certain he would've gotten back all of his money and much much more.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DoubleOrNothing
DoubleOrNothing
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July 17th, 2015 at 4:10:16 PM permalink
Quote: superrick

Good question


I think he's more a roulette player.
I can't believe what I believe.
DoubleOrNothing
DoubleOrNothing
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July 17th, 2015 at 4:15:35 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Had someone like dicesitter put 7 years of effort into legitimate AP. I'm certain he would've gotten back all of his money and much much more.


And if he had done others things, which after all he may well have, be way ahead of either. The either-or way of thinking of GAMBLERS.
I can't believe what I believe.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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July 17th, 2015 at 5:07:50 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Unfortunately don't understand the mentality of most craps players(Well, maybe you actually do). They love the excitement, the crowd and people watching them shoot. I see it all the time, so called AP DI's cramming into full tables next to the rest of the suckers on Friday night. Meanwhile there's a half table where you can shoot with limited people and get yourself inches away from the back wall.

I prefer half-empty tables because I like a quick game. I brought this up in the Wynn thread -- a full table with dozens of prop bets flying back and forth, people buying in left and right, and the shooters fidgeting with the dice leads to 60 seconds between rolls and boredom (for me). I'd rather play on a table with three or four line or place bettors with no middle action and nothing complicated. Lots of other craps players are satisfied being belly-to-back at the rail with strangers. I'd rather play higher stakes than squeeze in at a low limit table.

Quote:

Assuming there's such as advantage craps play, ask yourself why they choose craps over the many other much more valuable PROVEN methods? Had someone like dicesitter put 7 years of effort into legitimate AP. I'm certain he would've gotten back all of his money and much much more.

I disagree that dicesitter has what it takes to pull off legitimate AP, but that's beside the point. If there were such a thing as advantage craps play, it would be far and away the most valuable AP method in the casino. It would scale linearly with bet size and there would be no heat. There's a limit to how often you can hole-card because not every dealer flashes, there's a limit to how much you can spread while counting, there's a limit to the bet size on a +EV slot game, etc. There is no practical limit on bet sizes for craps. If you could personally influence the dice, you'd never have to rely on another dealer flashing or making mistakes and you'd never have to count cards or rely on a fluctuating edge from deck depletion. Every bet you made would be +EV.

The best excuse dicesitter has put forward for not profiting from his alleged skill at dice influence is that his arm gets tired after 40 rolls. Perhaps it's true that he really doesn't have the stamina to throw a pair of dice more than 40 times a day. But if he is correct -- that *anyone* can learn how to influence the dice and beat the casino -- then he should be able to teach someone else his dice-influencing throw and then he wouldn't need to throw at all. He could just bet on his student's throws and not get tired. I wonder why that's not happening...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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July 17th, 2015 at 10:15:01 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist


The best excuse dicesitter has put forward for not profiting from his alleged skill at dice influence is that his arm gets tired after 40 rolls. Perhaps it's true that he really doesn't have the stamina to throw a pair of dice more than 40 times a day. But if he is correct -- that *anyone* can learn how to influence the dice and beat the casino -- then he should be able to teach someone else his dice-influencing throw and then he wouldn't need to throw at all. He could just bet on his student's throws and not get tired. I wonder why that's not happening...



More humor. What a great Saturday morning. The reason why that's not happening is he(and a few others) can sell their techniques to the naive and gullible. In addition I suppose, he could franchise it out and simply have the students bring/wire him a percentage of their winnings every hour/day. Ain't it great? Reminds me of the sports handicappers. Sell both sides of every game. You will for sure get repeat paying customers from something like half of them and the sample size is large. Plus, you can always change your name and do it again and again, year after year.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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July 18th, 2015 at 12:04:56 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

If there were such a thing as advantage craps play, it would be far and away the most valuable AP method in the casino. It would scale linearly with bet size and there would be no heat..

And you don't think I don't know that? (No Brainiac math genius needed, sayonara Pascal, hello Patrick Sinner).

Why do you think I am interested in this at all? I just want some real evidence. If someone can actually prove there's anything to DI, there's a fortune to be made.
It's obvious that even if it's possible, it's hard enough to discourage most people, but It only takes one guy. If proven it's worth the effort finding that person(while were at it we can find Bigfoot to).

Not one person is making money actually playing craps using only DI. I guess all the talented DI's are red chippers.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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