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MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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July 15th, 2015 at 2:26:13 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

What dicesitter knows about random and probability could be written on the back of a very small post-it note. He'll protest he has real experience, but it's quite clear he couldn't tell the difference over 30 rolls between 'random' and 'controlled' dice. There's a reason for that... unless the rolls were hugely patterned, no-one could for the sort of shifts in probability dice-setters claim.

Exactly. That's why the inquiry has to be on physical evidence, not numeric results. Numeric results are too variable. But observing that a die stays on axis, that's easy to do (especially with cameras). If someone can keep the dice on axis, or prevent some other type of movement after the dice bounce on the table, the frequency of being able to do that should be easy to count. Then you can look at how often you succeed, how often you fail, take the average, and recompute your house edge. It's really not hard to figure out.

But nobody ever seems to look at it this way, at least not anybody who's crowing publicly about being able to influence the dice. All we ever get is "my SRR is 19" or "my shot was working really well last night, I made $20."

When I said you only need one in ten on-axis results to have the edge, I'm not kidding. Let's put it in more intuitive terms: if you can keep the dice on-axis only one time per hand -- from the time you make your first comeout to the time you seven-out, you will beat the casino in the long run. You only need *one roll* per hand to be successful to beat the game. Just one. Can anyone reach this bar or anywhere close to it?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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July 15th, 2015 at 3:01:42 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Just standing and throwing for endless hours can prove nothing, just ask ahigh....



Maybe you should stick to talking to the nice man.
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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July 15th, 2015 at 7:21:34 PM permalink
Math


I am sure in a couple of hours you will have 1080 rolls, and it will show nothing.

I don't mind presenting my data for the 1080 rolls, you cant video tape
me throwing..... I wont allow that. Even you should understand that,

But if you want to use that as an excuse so be it...

dicesetter

remember I have already presented lots of data and the two video's of
my dice landing..... I am not afraid to do that.
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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July 15th, 2015 at 7:30:10 PM permalink
Ahigh


I was very willing to work with you and I provided some data and would have done
more, but it was you that called me a liar.

If you recall I complimented your dedication a numbers of times, but I also urged you
to get others to help and show you different ways to throw, not because I felt they
were better than you, but because they had different ways to throw and one of them
may have worked for you.

I know how hard you worked and I believe to this day you feel there is some
influence that can be gained.

What I have shown on here in terms of data and videos reflects also a lot of work
and shows some interesting results... Math and others may feel it was not enough
data...and I would provide more within reason.

dicesetter
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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July 15th, 2015 at 8:26:01 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Ahigh
I was very willing to work with you and I provided some data and would have done
more,
but it was you that called me a liar.

this does not sound like the Ahigh we all know and love

can you, dicesitter, link to that (those) events?

I have a short question for U
are you a liar?
just asking

I be in a North American casino tomorrow (should narrow down the choices) playing craps
remember my shoes and say "hi Sally" when you see me
I Heart Vi Hart
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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July 15th, 2015 at 10:15:37 PM permalink
Mustangsally

Sally I am not worried about that answer, I think Ahigh is an honest guy
so he will be the first to admit what happened.

dicesetter
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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July 15th, 2015 at 10:31:47 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

I am sure in a couple of hours you will have 1080 rolls, and it will show nothing.


I agree. Remember, I cannot influence the dice. But I also expect my results will be indistinguishable from yours because ... wait for it ... neither can you.

Quote:

you cant video tape me throwing..... I wont allow that.


I don't want to video tape you throwing, I have no interest in being part of your dice practicing lunacy. You assert you can influence the dice. Prove it. You're not willing to provide any verifiable, testable evidence of your claims so how do you expect anyone to believe you?

So what if you post some numbers -- how can anyone verify their authenticity, that you didn't just make them up? I have a pair of dice on my desk right now. Here are some numbers: 3/2, 3/4, 2/4, 4/3, 1/1. Do you think I made those up or did I actually roll the dice?

Quote:

I have already presented ... the two video's of my dice landing..... I am not afraid to do that.

Prove it. Show us some video that demonstrates you have any quantifiable level of influence whatsoever.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
slackyhacky
slackyhacky
Joined: Jan 18, 2012
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July 16th, 2015 at 11:19:02 PM permalink
Eagle eye,

I have seen lots of people post excel spreadsheets on this forum.
slackyhacky
slackyhacky
Joined: Jan 18, 2012
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July 16th, 2015 at 11:23:56 PM permalink
I didn't make it to all 70 pages of this forum post.

I did watch the videos the eagle eye posted. It seemed that dice tend to fall to the 6 side of the dice.

I Assume this is because 6 pits with white paint weigh more. Do dice manufacturers take that into account and add weight to the other sides? Maybe the paint equals the amount of plastic removed so it mute.

Again - didn't read the whole thread (should be a rule against a thread longer 100 posts or something....) but I assume many people have said this - but man I wish I could play a table with biased dice (and now which way they are biased). How cool would that be?

Anyway, no way casinos do it on purpose, but as asked above, is it possible that all dias ARE biased towards the higher numbers?

I lay the 10. Maybe I should Lay the 4.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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July 16th, 2015 at 11:48:10 PM permalink
Surely even if you could only make 40 'good' shots per day, you could still play with an advantage and make a nice profit. 40 shots at a 1% per roll advantage would $40 if you had $100 out... and craps being what it is, you could have more on the table and not raise any suspicions. $500 at risk per shot, $5 EV per shot, $200/day EV. Plug in some variance numbers and you can work out ROR and all that good stuff. Only bet big when you have the bones, play at maintenance level until it's your turn to shoot.

Profit.

So even with this 'limit' there's plenty of ways to make money... in the long term. Just like counting cards, it'll take time.

Just would take a little practice and work to discover what the edge and effect is. Pretty sure I could work on that for $1000/week... if I had the touch. I don't. Don't believe anyone does. It matters not what I believe though... the shooters know their own bankrolls... they just might not know their own edges.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

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