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MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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July 2nd, 2015 at 10:37:24 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Just to bring it back for old times sake - {facepalm}

"I can do Math, but I choose to do it wrong in case I get accused of being right?" What a complete joke of a response. MathE -> I'd just stop bothering if I were you, you can go to a Cirque show if you want to see unfunny clowns.


Yeah, that jumped the shark quickly, didn't it? I'm not sure what I was really expecting in the alternate. Someone who actually cares about evaluating their progress would keep better records and make a decent attempt at quantifying it. Our esteemed colleague is more interested in intuition than numeracy. I wish him success in the sportfishing tournament, though. He should have no problem especially if he uses the fish call technique:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUusX1Js6R0

I do admire the creativity in suggesting that he can influence the dice to roll sideways exactly 90+180*N degrees. That's new.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
thecesspit
thecesspit
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July 2nd, 2015 at 10:52:46 AM permalink
Hmmm, IF DI exists, I wouldn't be surprised if the result was something like that, though. I'd worry about the physics after showing a consistent effect. Where consistent effect does not equal 'do it 100% of the time' as most of these DI believers seem to think 'math boys' mean. I noticed he kept stumm (maybe I am blocked by him) when I suggested a simple way of deciding 'good throw' or 'bad throw' without showing the numerical results.

I slo-pitch. I'm not very good, but I have a enough feel to know a 'good' pitch when it leaves my hand, and not when it hits mat. I know I'm not consistent, and my pitch varies. I also know I am 200% more accurate than 3 years ago, just from the stats we keep on the team. So I get 'not being on your game' some days. But the excuses I hear from DIs are a joke, and nothing like the way other dexterity skilled performers talk. Or even Blackjack counters 'I was on top of my game, cards came out badly for me'.

I never hear DIs says "I was throwing well, but couldn't hit the point'. (AHigh may have made such a statement in the past, I just don't recall it). It's always being of their game. I can throw 6 back corner pitches in a row (sometimes). Doesn't stop a good batter hitting it deep into Centre Field... where it's the fielders problem :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 2nd, 2015 at 11:17:08 AM permalink
The reason I know that none of these DI advocates have actually studied the math is because if they had, they'd never bother with "I have long rolls" or "I avoid the 7". If you can establish that your dice throws have a physical behavior X% of the time (e.g., on-axis 10% of the time, dead-cat bounce 2% of the time, etc.) then you can evaluate the overall distribution and recompute the EV for all the bets. Having long rolls or avoiding 7s is rarely the goal. By the way, if you do have on-axis rolls 10% of the time or a dead-cat bounce 2% of the time, you have a huge positive edge if you set and bet correctly.

And you're right, if someone can't distinguish between a good throw and a bad throw, their records are useless. Jumbling everything together and looking at the overall results doesn't tell you the actual degree of influence (if you have one at all). It's not that complicated if you think about it clearly, but clear thinking seems in short supply with the sort of people who would spend years practicing dice tossing without being able to measure their results.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Zcore13
Zcore13
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July 2nd, 2015 at 11:54:18 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

I slo-pitch. I'm not very good, but I have a enough feel to know a 'good' pitch when it leaves my hand, and not when it hits mat. I know I'm not consistent, and my pitch varies. I also know I am 200% more accurate than 3 years ago, just from the stats we keep on the team. So I get 'not being on your game' some days. But the excuses I hear from DIs are a joke, and nothing like the way other dexterity skilled performers talk. Or even Blackjack counters 'I was on top of my game, cards came out badly for me'.



When you pitch is there a wall above the batter that when it hits it, it takes it off it's original line and pushed the ball randomly in another direction? :)


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
thecesspit
thecesspit
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July 2nd, 2015 at 12:15:21 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

When you pitch is there a wall above the batter that when it hits it, it takes it off it's original line and pushed the ball randomly in another direction? :)


ZCore13



Nope. My point isn't that you could DI. My point is that a good 'throw' is based on the departure, and you should 'know' without seeing the result. In fact, yes, if you stuck a wall to bounce the pitch off and it randomised it, I'd still, after time, know if I was throwing against the spot I'd decided was the place I want to place the ball.

And have you seen cricket? Bounces of a surface that can cause the flight of the ball to change (though great bowlers will try to hit the cracks in the wicket to get that deviation, and change of flight). Guess what, those guys know a good delivery even if it takes an unexpected bounce... the right line and length.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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July 2nd, 2015 at 12:32:12 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Nope. My point isn't that you could DI. My point is that a good 'throw' is based on the departure, and you should 'know' without seeing the result. In fact, yes, if you stuck a wall to bounce the pitch off and it randomised it, I'd still, after time, know if I was throwing against the spot I'd decided was the place I want to place the ball.

And have you seen cricket? Bounces of a surface that can cause the flight of the ball to change (though great bowlers will try to hit the cracks in the wicket to get that deviation, and change of flight). Guess what, those guys know a good delivery even if it takes an unexpected bounce... the right line and length.

I offered a challenge before. "Call it in the air" Said DI can call it in the air (or before any die comes to a stop) GOOD OR BAD. I will only count the rolls he believes to be good. This should significantly show results and speed up the process. Can someone explain why this wouldn't work? I can, because DI does NOT work. DIs balm variance when they think they had a good toss but get bad results, DI's say their shot was off when their numbers are not coming up. DI's claim skill when the dice come up how they wanted.

Sure if its obvious the dice went off track they will note it. That's just to make everyone believe they are being honest. They will only admit the obvious to make themselves believe they are being honest with themselves.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 2nd, 2015 at 12:57:48 PM permalink
I think a better challenge would be to call it before you throw it. If your goal is to keep the dice on-axis, how often does that actually happen compared to when the dice tumble sideways at least once? If someone could keep the dice on axis -- from the time they left the hand to the time they came to rest -- just once out of every 20 rolls on average, they'd have an enormous edge over the house if they wagered correctly.

Either the dice stay on axis or they don't. If they don't, don't count the roll as "good."

With dicesitter's technique, he apparently wants the dice to turn sideways 90 degrees. I'm not sure how he expects that to happen, but the same test applies. How often does that happen when you throw the dice and how often does it not happen? What's the success rate? It has nothing to do with the outcome of the dice, nothing to do with the number of rolls between 7s, but everything to do with whether the dice physically move the way you intend. Can you influence the dice to move non-randomly some percentage of the time or can you not? It's that simple.

If you can't articulate a cogent theory of how you're going to make the dice move -- which ultimately will involve avoiding certain kinds of movement -- then you can't possibly keep track of how successful you are in achieving those results. The folks who are doing nothing other than looking at the final outcome on each die are wasting their time.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MrV
MrV
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July 2nd, 2015 at 10:29:14 PM permalink
Ah, the innumerates.

Their number is legion.
"What, me worry?"
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 2nd, 2015 at 11:18:17 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

Ah, the innumerates.

Their number is legion.


But their numbers are absent.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
dicesitter
dicesitter
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July 3rd, 2015 at 7:44:04 AM permalink
Mathextremist





Anyway the first day for walleye pre fishing went pretty good.. I sure as don't hell don't want to
tell you how we did it because you would find some fault with that as well, maybe want 50 hours of
on the water video. Laughing.... but then again you may not have invested $60,000 in a boat, to have a
clue as to what we are doing.

Hell you may not even have a craps table.

Anyway after reading your last post above I see this stuff is way over your head, You appear to still be talking
about keeping both dice on axis, you may have read to much about that on a GTC web site.

There are significant benefits to the stuff I showed you the other day.... if a player can control the axis finish on
1 die consistently, which I can do, the potential for certain bets is very good such as a 1,2,3 bet... With your
outstanding knowledge of the math of craps I am sure you know what that is. Even taking the first sample of
the isolation of 6/1/1/6 and a 40% movement to the x axis from z provides several opportunities for the come out
roll where certain bets in combination do not require the right die to show similar movement to still be a very good bet.

Now I understand your still back in the dark ages of dice control by asking a player to call his shot in the air. Fifty
hours would a long time standing shouting numbers. I imagine for fishing I would have to stand up and holler
24" walleye before my bait hits the water. But think about this, calling an axis finish while the dice are being thrown
with 40% accuracy is far better than you and others suggest is required to get an advantage.

You may well want to get a table and learn to throw to understand how this works. Maybe if you just worked
50 additional hours for a couple of weeks you could afford one.

In the mean time I will be out on the water again wasting my time.

Dicesetter

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