CRAPS ~ DICE UNBALANCE MYSTERY ~ DICE PHYSICAL DATA
Quote: eagleeye2
Now Face, which of the following befell you in your postings, as I called you to the task above?
A) Sorry, failed to read all of eagleeye2's post...
B) Failed in Reading Comprehension, i.e. to understanding that the Super Glue was added to a Face Of the Die, in eagleeye2's post, in an effort to "Establish Level Of Face Weight required to Verify Unbalance in that Die.
c) Short term memory failed to recall eagleeye's posting, or his report of 0.1738 Grams of Weight to Verify Unbalance in his test.
d) Other, please explain so the folks can underastand
D) Other, although I'm not sure anyone else misunderstood me.
Yes, I remember you posting about your tests. I don't remember specifics, but you have some caliper that is of much better quality than even the casinos. You added tiny drops of glue weighing but fractions of a gram, and were able to see and determine a bias through the use of your quality caliper. I get it. Didn't miss it, didn't forget it, didn't purposely omit it to make you look like a fool.
What I am saying, and the point behind all of my posts on the matter, is what results from this bias when the dice hit the felt?
Your work isn't nothing. But, and someone with a better mind for science can feel free to correct me, the only thing you have quantified is how much bias your caliper can detect. And that's something. You could now work with a finer and more accurate set of info when it comes down to the real work. But whether you can detect and confirm a bias of .1g or all the way down to .00001g, it tells us absolutely nothing, zero, zip, zilch, nada, about how that bias affects the results of the die.
And isn't that the whole point of this?
You can quantify bias to 5 decimal places. You've confirmed that casino die are biased on some level. But what effect does it have?
I guess you missed that part of my post, even though it was the main point of it all. How much bias is needed to affect probability?
That is the work that needs to be done. That is what needs quantifying. And on that subject, still... crickets.
Your answer verifies to me that you are NOT Reasonably Prudent In Your Popstings!
eagleeye2
Quote: eagleeye2Face,
Your answer verifies to me that you are NOT Reasonably Prudent In Your Popstings!
eagleeye2
Well, that is certainly one possibility. I'll admit I did not go over your OP with a fine toothed comb before posting any of my previous posts.
But now I have. And all I saw in my re-read is what I believed I saw the first time; lots of talk about detecting bias, absolutely zero talk about what that means or how it affects a roll.
I welcome you or indeed any single other person or people to tear my claim and questions apart. I don't see where there is room to, but I welcome the debate. So if you or anyone on the sidelines is lurking, please, feel free.
I can compare it to baseball, since, at its base, they're both physics problem. You see, a baseball acts in a certain way as it passes through air. Much study has been done on this. Certain atmospheric variations cause the ball to act differently. In addition, the pitcher himself can influence the ball to make it do things he wants. Certain spins or the exposure of the threads in a certain manner can cause it to curve, slide, or waver as it passes through the air. This has been proven. In addition, and here's the analogy, there are things that can be done to the ball that have an even greater effect.
At one point, if you wanted to lick your fingers before a pitch, or maybe wipe your brow, no one would care. But someone, somewhen, though "Hmm, by adding moisture, it could affect the way the ball behaves as it travels". That's where we are in your dice theory. It's a thought, it's a "maybe". It wasn't until testing that it was found, "Hey, if you put a gloop of grease on the ball, you can make it do some really absurd things." The theory was tested under the conditions of the claim and was found to be true.
You haven't done that. No one has done that. What you have done is analogous to someone finding out someone greased a ball. That's great. But what effect does it have?.
I could blow in my hand to warm it, and the added moisture by doing so would have no effect on a baseball. I could adjust my cap, and the sweat from my brow would likewise have little to no effect. Only if I really glooped it with some hidden Vaseline or liberally applied suntan lotion do I reach the level of lubrication needed to reflect a noticeable change in the action of a ball.
Do you see? Somewhere there is a point where the bias has a noticeable effect on the outcome. And where is that point? You don't have the foggiest idea. And until you do, all the information you possess has no use.
Quote: MathExtremistWith heavy 4,5,6 faces you should be making a killing betting the Buy 4. Are you? If not, the dice aren't biased enough to matter.
MathExtremist,
You may well be on to something & it may indicate that only a very small Die Unbalance can result in Altering the Numerical Output of a set if dice, thrown on a CRAPS Table.
Yesterday & today I Played Craps at a Casino I trust very well. Thinking about your Post, however brings up some strange coincidences, as follows:
This Casino Offers Small, Tall & All Betting, which I Love to Play on what look to be good shooters.
1) I made personally made two Small Bets & missed three Tall Bets, for lack of only a 12. One of them would have given me the $1,210 for a $5 Across Bet, which I have yet to hit!
2) I saw several other Small Bets Made, But Not a Single TALL Bet, rather Strange & as I recall the 12 & 2 are both 36 to one odds, yet the 2 was hit 4 times during my play time, with ZERO 12's Hits on Tall potentials.
3) While I prefer to stick to 6's & 8's, pressing them on a continuing roll, I generally avoid the 4 & 10. This morning I seemed to hit an abnormal # of Hard 4's, & began betting it, which pad off a bit!
Coincidences, or Unbalanced Dice???
Others Please review your recent Craps experience & report it here.
eagleeye2
Quote: FaceI could blow in my hand to warm it, and the added moisture by doing so would have no effect on a baseball. I could adjust my cap, and the sweat from my brow would likewise have little to no effect. Only if I really glooped it with some hidden Vaseline or liberally applied suntan lotion do I reach the level of lubrication needed to reflect a noticeable change in the action of a ball.
Do you see? Somewhere there is a point where the bias has a noticeable effect on the outcome. And where is that point? You don't have the foggiest idea. And until you do, all the information you possess has no use.
Once upon a time I read stories somewhere of shooters trying to use foreign substances to stick dice together, like hair gel, lip balm, or various bodily substances (saliva, sweat, etc.) I don't know how well it worked but it'd be pretty obvious if you saw the two dice fly down the table stuck together like a big domino, and it'd be an awful thing to have to deal with as a boxperson. At least the stick has the stick.
Quote: eagleeye2Coincidences, or Unbalanced Dice???
If you bet (and win) accordingly, does it matter to you?
Quote: Dalex64No thank you for pointing out your browser is probably hijacked?
Dalex64, Thank You,
I reviewed the ads & spotted something like Better Browser in very small writing.
I entered Control Panel & deleated it & things are back to normal.
Not shure where or when it came in, but it is history now!
eagleeye2
Quote: MathExtremistIf you bet (and win) accordingly, does it matter to you?
In my case, had I only bet on the Small, I would have recouped $14 on bets that Paid $ 34 for 1, for a net gain of $476, over what I would have gotten.
But that one Properly Placed 12 would have netted me $1,210.
eagleeye2
Did you see the Wizard's post?Quote: eagleeye2In my case, had I only bet on the Small, I would have recouped $14 on bets that Paid $ 34 for 1, for a net gain of $476, over what I would have gotten.
But that one Properly Placed 12 would have netted me $1,210.
eagleeye2
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 704
Posts: 12563
I probably shouldn't even justify this thread with this comment, but if anybody want to meet with their alleged biased dice and whatever measurement tools to prove it, then I'll meet him at the Starbucks at Trailwood and Village Center Circle to hear him out and report back here with my honest thoughts on what I observed.
""I guess you missed that part of my post, even though it was the main point of it all. How much bias is needed to affect probability?""
In Problem Solving, the most useful thought process is that of ""Taking things to the EXTREME", VISUALIZING what happens, then feeding that VISUALIZATION back into the hypothesis.
In this case, the hypothesis is "Can Dice Unbalance affect the numerical outcome of a pair of Die, thrown on a Craps table?"
1) Now Taking things to the EXTREME" ~ Add a relatively massive weight to any side of a DIE!
2) VISUALIZE WHAT HAPPENS, ~ Obviously, the weighted side lands down, when thrown, as one is required to do on a Craps Table; this is due solely to GRAVITY, one of the four universal forces of nature and that Unbalance Induced, Absolutely Affects the Numerical Outcome of that Die.
3) Feeding that VISUALIZATION back into the hypothesis, one can conclude that any Level of Unbalance Whatsoever, Will Affect the Numerical Outcome of a pair of Die thrown on a Craps Table.
No, the above does not quantify the effect as a function of the cause, but does VERIFY that any Level of Unbalance Whatsoever, Will Affect the Numerical Outcome of a pair of Die thrown on a Craps Table, period.
There appears to be agreement here, that the level of unbalance of Dice used in the game of CRAPS, is at this point unknown. Most here, however, have witnessed Casino's Switch Out the Dice for various reasons. We must ASK WHY?
The Bottom Line for a CRAPS Player is Win's Vs Losses. To this end, we can judge where we have Won & Lost.
The predominant position of serious CRAPS players is that somehow, the # 6 Point is Heavier than is # 1 Point, which has been Verified on a Dice Balancer, such as in the Link Below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSx7aVMKCOQ&feature=youtu.be
Yes, real world Dice Shooting in a Casino appears to Cancel Out Virtually Every Nay~Swayer's thought rebuttal.
Here is my latest Personal experience relative to the above & the concept of "" ~ DICE UNBALANCE MYSTERY ~ DICE PHYSICAL DATA
MathExtremist,
You may well be on to something & it may indicate that only a very small Die Unbalance can result in Altering the Numerical Output of a set if dice, thrown on a CRAPS Table.
Yesterday & today I Played Craps at a Casino I trust very well. Thinking about your Post, however brings up some strange coincidences, as follows:
This Casino Offers Small, Tall & All Betting, which I Love to Play on what look to be good shooters.
1) I personally made two Small Bets & missed three Tall Bets, for lack of only a 12. One of them would have given me the $1,210 for a $5 Across Bet, which I have yet to hit!
2) I saw several other Small Bets Made, But Not a Single TALL Bet, rather Strange & as I recall the 12 & 2 are both 36 to one odds, yet the 2 was hit 4 times during my play time potential, with ZERO 12's Hits on Tall potentials.
3) While I prefer to stick to 6's & 8's, pressing them on a continuing roll, I generally avoid the 4 & 10. This morning I seemed to hit an abnormal # of Hard 4's, & began betting it, which pad off a bit!
Coincidences, or Unbalanced Dice in Play, I am beginning to wonder???
NOTE: All other CRAPS Players, Please review your recent Craps experience, especially as it relates to SMALL ~ TALL ~ ALL betting, as the SMALL ~ TALL ~ ALL Bet; approximately quantifies the ratio of 1,1 Throws to 6,6 Throws over the course of a SMALL ~ TALL ~ ALL Bet Craps Throw.
Reporting your findings here, may Clinch the Effects of Unbalanced Dice Despite the Nay~Swayer's on the thread!
eagleeye2
Quote: eagleeye2When I scanned through Dice Forums a week ago, I picked Wizard of Vegas; to present what I feel is a Matter of Significant Importance to all Craps Players.. Unfortunately, my First Impressions HAVE NOT turned out to be favorable.
In 7 days off posting to a CRAPS thread I titled ""CRAPS ~ DICE UNBALANCE MYSTERY ~ DICE PHYSICAL DATA"" here's some of what I encountered.
1) The usual fluff from those that have their Opinions Made up in Advance, as I had
anticipated.
2) A generally Aloof, rather than Congenial Attitude, expressed by Thread Moderators, which
serves only to Cut Off Needed Feedback, from potential posters on any thread.
3) Moderator attitude reminiscent of that of a 5th grade child, hardly what is needed on an
Informational Thread.
4) Closed Minded Post, by Moderator, essentially attacking Posts that I made & that were
intended to generate discussion about the threads subject matter.
5) A vague early threat to Bam me for posting several Paragraphs that had been posted
previously, (considered SPAMMING by them) but, which had relevance to, responding to
a posters specific question.
6) A request to "Clean Up a Table in my Post," when the software for this thread does NOT
Accept Excel Formatted Tables, Nor will it accept spaces inserted in an effort to Tabulate
Data, within the allocated posting area. Personally, I gave up trying after a half hour's efforts
& the only reason a Nice Table Appeared in my Post, was thanks to a member who provided
me with a Formatting Program that he wrote, to generate a table therein. Obviously, this
"Moderator" had NEVER attempted to enter a Table into any of his many postings on the
thread; what a HOOT that is!
7) With Moderator attitude expressed towards what they reefer to as "spamming", wherein
Nothing From a Previous Post Can Be Repeated in a Subsequent Posting, there is ZERO
CHANCE of Resolving the ""CRAPS ~ DICE UNBALANCE MYSTERY ~ DICE
PHYSICAL DATA"", NOR most other postings, through contributions posted to this
ludicrously run thread.
8) Getting "A Three Day Suspension for Personal Insult", to an incoherent posting, tops the
thread attitude off.
9) Lastly having to frequently resort to Task Manager when switching between many Forum
Pages, to clear the Online Casino etc., Pop Up Tag Along Links; that apparently help to
make a profit for the site operator, come on guys, you need those pennies per Tag Along?
Bottom Line, I personally can no longer Afford to Waste My Time, Posting to your Forum!
My last post to Wizard of Vegas Forum ~ says Bye Bye ~ eagleeye2
We've heard it all before. Bye bye.
ZCore13
Quote: eagleeye23) Feeding that VISUALIZATION back into the hypothesis, one can conclude that any Level of Unbalance Whatsoever, Will Affect the Numerical Outcome of a pair of Die thrown on a Craps Table.
This in fact is not a conclusion, but is another hypothesis that needs to be verified through experimentation and data collection.
DI/DC/DB--none of them make any significant difference unless they provide an exploitable edge or give the casino an unfair advantage.
All the rest of the talk is just noise...
Quote: ontariodealerthe reason why some casino's change the dice after a hot roll is the same as when they change the cards after a royal flush in let it ride or Caribbean stud, they can check for any cheating and catch you while you're still there.
ontariodealer,
That was one of my 3 optional reasons forf a Casino change dice.
I ask you from your experience:
1) What % of the time does the Casino Find they have been Cheated with the DICE they pulled from play?
2) Have you ever seen a Casino put DICE they have pulled back in play, & if so approximately what % of the time?
eagleeye2
Quote: Dalex64This in fact is not a conclusion, but is another hypothesis that needs to be verified through experimentation and data collection.
Dalex64,
II respectfully Disagree with your comment!
1) Nature acts in an extremely Consistent Manner, not in Chaos as you post implies
2) If taking a Natural Event like Dice Unbalance, to an Extreme, results in a SINGLE Conclusion, like it has here, then
3) Extrapolating that Natural Event backwards, results in the same conclusion, period
Thus Feeding that VISUALIZATION back into the hypothesis, one can conclude that any Level of Unbalance Whatsoever, Will Affect the Numerical Outcome of a pair of Die thrown on a Craps Table.
Yes, Nature is a wonderful thing that keeps the Cosmos together!
1. Observe several rounds of play before placing any bets.
2. If every shooter is sevening out within a few rolls... bet the minimum on don't pass, make continuous DC bets, and lay max odds.
3. If every shooter is making several points in a row... bet the minimum on pass, make continuous come bets, and take max odds.
4. Go back to step 1 every time new dice are switched in.
Quote: RonCI'm thinking you are wasting our time...
DI/DC/DB--none of them make any significant difference unless they provide an exploitable edge or give the casino an unfair advantage.
All the rest of the talk is just noise...
It's easily demonstrated that a minor change in the probabilities of the die faces can lead to a calculable player advantage. 17% for faces 1,2,3, rather than 16.667% for everything, which is the type of bias that the OP posits, leads to approximately a 1% player edge on the buy 4 bet. It wouldn't take that long for a player with a consistent 1% edge to earn a significant amount and validly attribute it to that edge as opposed to getting lucky.
But that's not happening, so it's reasonable to conclude that even if there is a minuscule physical bias in the dice, it doesn't matter.
The same is true, by the way, for the RNGs used in every slot game in every casino. None of them are truly uniform, it's all deterministic PRNG algorithms that are good enough for the game to play the way it was intended, but "good enough" is nowhere close to perfect. The NGCB regulations specify that RNGs need to meet the 95% chi-square level. They could have specified 99% but 95% is good enough for RNGs in slot games. Similarly, it would be ridiculous to require perfectly balanced dice -- perfect on a nanoscale level or something. The standard manufacturing techniques for dice are good enough to allow the game of craps to behave as intended, even if the dice are not actually perfect.
Quote: Dalex64This in fact is not a conclusion, but is another hypothesis that needs to be verified through experimentation and data collection.
Quote: RonCI'm thinking you are wasting our time...
DI/DC/DB--none of them make any significant difference unless they provide an exploitable edge or give the casino an unfair advantage.
All the rest of the talk is just noise...
Is it sinking in yet, eagleeye?
As I have said, and will repeat for your consideration, the membership which inhabits this forum is way ahead of you.
As I have said, and will repeat for your consideration, your "conclusion", which in reality is just another hypothesis, has merit. Anyone with a high school diploma or equivalent can see that it is true.
As I have said, and will repeat for your consideration, there is absolutely a way that you, yourself, can validate and quantify your hypothesis. Not only will you be the first to do it, possibly the first ever in history as far as I know, but you would have at your disposal here at WoV people who can do the math and tell you exactly how much of an advantage you would find for each level of bias you discover.
In the amount of time it has taken you to type out paragraphs of repeated information, you could have already recorded scores of biased die results and had them analyzed by the folks lurking this thread. Everything you need is either possessed by you by way of your equipment and time, or found here by way of the sharp math skills and willingness to test of the membership. Yet you don't / won't. Why is that?
Please especially consider carefully the following by MathExtremist. I have bolded the very important bits, again, for your consideration.
Quote: MathExtremistIt's easily demonstrated that a minor change in the probabilities of the die faces can lead to a calculable player advantage. 17% for faces 1,2,3, rather than 16.667% for everything, which is the type of bias that the OP posits, leads to approximately a 1% player edge on the buy 4 bet. It wouldn't take that long for a player with a consistent 1% edge to earn a significant amount and validly attribute it to that edge as opposed to getting lucky.
But that's not happening, so it's reasonable to conclude that even if there is a minuscule physical bias in the dice, it doesn't matter.
The same is true, by the way, for the RNGs used in every slot game in every casino. None of them are truly uniform, it's all deterministic PRNG algorithms that are good enough for the game to play the way it was intended, but "good enough" is nowhere close to perfect. The NGCB regulations specify that RNGs need to meet the 95% chi-square level. They could have specified 99% but 95% is good enough for RNGs in slot games. Similarly, it would be ridiculous to require perfectly balanced dice -- perfect on a nanoscale level or something. The standard manufacturing techniques for dice are good enough to allow the game of craps to behave as intended, even if the dice are not actually perfect.
Do you see yet? "A biased die" means nothing, because it is already known, through billions of tests by way of playing the game of craps, that all of these imperfect dice have had no effect. The dice are "good enough", even though they aren't perfect. What you or indeed any single other person who wants to take advantage of a biased dice must do is determine when "good enough" ceases to exist. Where is the tipping point? Imagine if the tipping point was a difference of just .001g and you knew that information. My god, but there'd be opportunity all over the world. And you, the one who discovered it, would be first in the game. And all these naysaying casino professionals would be oblivious as you looted and pillaged tables from coast to coast. Or, you could find that even a colossal 2g difference showed almost no results over the life of the die, and you could move on to a more successful venture.
So which of the following has befell you?
A) You don't have a good grasp on science, but your time here has shown you the light and you'll get right to work
B) You have no interest in finding out, instead preferring to live in the world you have created for yourself.
C) You still haven't grasped the concept, and refuse to believe those who are trying to help you.
D) You don't care about any of this because this is all an elaborate troll
E) Other. Please explain for the membership so they understand.
Quote: eagleeye2Dalex64,
II respectfully Disagree with your comment!
1) Nature acts in an extremely Consistent Manner, not in Chaos as you post implies
2) If taking a Natural Event like Dice Unbalance, to an Extreme, results in a SINGLE Conclusion, like it has here, then
3) Extrapolating that Natural Event backwards, results in the same conclusion, period
Thus Feeding that VISUALIZATION back into the hypothesis, one can conclude that any Level of Unbalance Whatsoever, Will Affect the Numerical Outcome of a pair of Die thrown on a Craps Table.
Yes, Nature is a wonderful thing that keeps the Cosmos together!
Ok, taking die balance to an Extreme:
If you had a perfectly balanced die, and applied one MOLECULE of superglue to one side, would it behave differently?
Would you see a difference in the die caliper spin test?
Clearly the die is now unbalanced - one side is heavier by the weight of one molecule of superglue.
Do you think this die is now unbalanced enough to show a bias? If so, how much?
Entgertainment, yes, but laughable at the same time.
Here's the last Post I have made, guess that you have not read it yet.
""Yes, real world Dice Shooting in a Casino appears to Cancel Out Virtually Every Nay~Swayer's thought rebuttal.""
Here is my latest Personal experience relative to the above & the concept of "" ~ DICE UNBALANCE MYSTERY ~ DICE PHYSICAL DATA
MathExtremist,
You may well be on to something & it may indicate that only a very small Die Unbalance can result in Altering the Numerical Output of a set if dice, thrown on a CRAPS Table.
Yesterday & today I Played Craps at a Casino I trust very well. Thinking about your Post, however brings up some strange coincidences, as follows:
This Casino Offers Small, Tall & All Betting, which I Love to Play on what look to be good shooters.
1) I personally made two Small Bets & missed three Tall Bets, for lack of only a 12. One of them would have given me the $1,210 for a $5 Across Bet, which I have yet to hit!
2) I saw several other Small Bets Made, But Not a Single TALL Bet, rather Strange & as I recall the 12 & 2 are both 36 to one odds, yet the 2 was hit 4 times during my play time potential, with ZERO 12's Hits on Tall potentials.
3) While I prefer to stick to 6's & 8's, pressing them on a continuing roll, I generally avoid the 4 & 10. This morning I seemed to hit an abnormal # of Hard 4's, & began betting it, which pad off a bit!
Coincidences, or Unbalanced Dice in Play, I am beginning to wonder???
NOTE: All other CRAPS Players, Please review your recent Craps experience, especially as it relates to SMALL ~ TALL ~ ALL betting, as the SMALL ~ TALL ~ ALL Bet; approximately quantifies the ratio of 1,1 Throws to 6,6 Throws over the course of a SMALL ~ TALL ~ ALL Bet Craps Throw.
Reporting your findings here, may Clinch the Effects of Unbalanced Dice Despite the Nay~Swayer's on the thread!
eagleeye2
Quote: eagleeye2ontariodealer,
That was one of my 3 optional reasons forf a Casino change dice.
I ask you from your experience:
1) What % of the time does the Casino Find they have been Cheated with the DICE they pulled from play?
2) Have you ever seen a Casino put DICE they have pulled back in play, & if so approximately what % of the time?
eagleeye2
1. never seen it
2. absolutely zero
"on what look to be good shooters"Quote: eagleeye2
This Casino Offers Small, Tall & All Betting, which I Love to Play on what look to be good shooters.
IMO You just lost credibility.
Quote: eagleeye2Face,
Entgertainment, yes, but laughable at the same time.
Here's the last Post I have made, guess that you have not read it yet.
""Yes, real world Dice Shooting in a Casino appears to Cancel Out Virtually Every Nay~Swayer's thought rebuttal.""
Here is my latest Personal experience relative to the above & the concept of "" ~ DICE UNBALANCE MYSTERY ~ DICE PHYSICAL DATA
...
I cannot tell if you're being intentionally obtuse or if you have a complete lack of reading comprehension and understanding of the scientific process. Let me spell it out for you - That Is Not How You Science.
Exhibit A) You tested for bias using calipers and super glue. The fact that you have detected bias does not, in any scenario existing in reality or indeed unreality, tell us anything about how that bias translates into actual results. In other words, that info is useless. Useless: adjective - not fulfilling or not expected to achieve the intended purpose or desired outcome. Synonyms: futile, pointless, to no purpose.
Exhibit B) Your observations of a live craps game under casino conditions does not, in any scenario existing in reality or indeed unreality, give you any information other than results. Say one of the results from a single die is "4", and it shows some 20 times in a row. Why did it show 20 times in a row? Did he slide it? Did he spin it? Is the die biased in weight? Is it biased in dimension? Well, ain't no chance you're pulling die off table and measuring dimension and bias, so you have no idea. If you have no idea, the information you have obtained by observing results is useless. Useless: adjective - not fulfilling or not expected to achieve the intended purpose or desired outcome. Synonyms: futile, pointless, to no purpose.
I'm a fisherman. My livelihood depends on being able to predict the salmon run so that I may be on the water at the appropriate time to catch the most fish possible. To do so fills my fridge and lines my pockets. It is in my best interest to be able to recognize and predict when the salmon will arrive.
I go to the river and I observe the things around me. Suddenly, I notice something. The trees along the river are going through a phase change. It's Spring, and they've been dormant all winter long. Suddenly, they're beginning to come to life and sprout buds. I deduce that the phase change of trees is connected to the salmon run. Perhaps the substances inside the trees is being released through the roots, which makes its way to the river due to runoff. The salmon sense it, and that's what sets them off.
The Spring run ends, summer passes, and now it's almost salmon season again. Armed with my "knowledge", I wait until the trees go through their phase change again. And as soon as the colors bloom and the leaves begin to fall, I head to the river. And how about that? The river is packed with salmon. I have figured it out! The trees are the key!
Of course, my "knowledge" is useless. It's not true. It is nothing more than coincidence. The salmon run is actually based on temperature changes; trees just happen to also be affected by same. And eventually comes a time of weird weather when the effect to the trees and the salmon don't line up, and I'll go to the river, and find I completely miss it. Now I'm financially ruined, the bank repossesses my only goat, and sometime in mid-January I and my family dies in my hut from starvation.
You can lead a horse to water and all that jazz. I wish you luck, sir. Despite the pomp and pageantry, it's all you have. Perhaps you will realize it before it's too late and can move on to more productive pursuits, maybe even before you lose your goat. I hear-tell baccarat can be profitable, to men of a certain nature.
Quote: Dalex64Ok, taking die balance to an Extreme:
If you had a perfectly balanced die, and applied one MOLECULE of superglue to one side, would it behave differently?
Would you see a difference in the die caliper spin test?
Clearly the die is now unbalanced - one side is heavier by the weight of one molecule of superglue.
Do you think this die is now unbalanced enough to show a bias? If so, how much?
Dalex64,
Sorry, but that is not "Taking Die Balance to the Extreme!"
Yes, but you could not detect a difference!
No, Not for a molecule!
One molecule would not be enough to show unbalance or bias.
Somehow, you have misinterpreted "Taking It to the Extreme"!
eagleeye2
In my exdperiment with Super Glue it took 10 drops (dried) to Verify Unbalance, added weight was 0.1738 Grams, or 2% Of the weight of the dice.
Quote: ontariodealer1. never seen it
2. absolutely zero
Thanks for an Honest & prompt Reply
eagleeye2
Quote: eagleeye2Dalex64,
Sorry, but that is not "Taking Die Balance to the Extreme!"
Yes, but you could not detect a difference!
No, Not for a molecule!
One molecule would not be enough to show unbalance or bias.
Somehow, you have misinterpreted "Taking It to the Extreme"!
eagleeye2
In my exdperiment with Super Glue it took 10 drops (dried) to Verify Unbalance, added weight was 0.1738 Grams, or 2% Of the weight of the dice.
That is to show an unbalance on the dice spinner, yes?
Is that the threshold for determining if the die is unfair, if that particular dice spinner can detect an imbalance?
What if you had a more sensitive dice spinner? Like one that could detect an imbalance of 1%? Would the dice be unfair because that particular dice spinner could detect the imbalance?
What if it could detect the difference in weight of one molecule?
that is less than 10 drops, certainly.
Would 9 drops keep the die fair?
What you have continued to fail to realize is that, while your tools can detect UNBALANCE, they can not detect or measure BIAS.
How much weight would it take to roll a 6 100% of the time? 50% of the time? 1/6th of the time? 167/1000 of a time? (in other words, less than one more 6 than expected out of a thousand)
To sumarize: the dice are imperfect. what difference does it actually make?
Then the other question I had - how does the casino, out of 5 dice, get two of them into your hands which will roll more 7s? Don't you have just as good a chance of picking out two dice that will roll an excess of hard 6 or hard 8, if all of the dice in the set of 5 roll too many 3's and 4's?
You have shown that dice are imperfect. ~~"PROVE"~~ that it !!MATTERS!!
Quote: AxelWolf"on what look to be good shooters"
IMO You just lost credibility.
Sorry, but it works for me!
Keep in mind that I reserve the wright to change my betting as one's roll materializes.
If you play CRAPS & Bet on every shootger, Do Or Don't, You are a Guaranteed Looser at Craps.
Small, Tall, All betting offers Proposition Betting at a little over 7% house advantage. A good DI & a bit of luck & you can make some serious $$$ at the Craps Table.
eagleeye2
Quote: eagleeye2Sorry, but it works for me!
Keep in mind that I reserve the wright to change my betting as one's roll materializes.
If you play CRAPS & Bet on every shootger, Do Or Don't, You are a Guaranteed Looser at Craps.
Small, Tall, All betting offers Proposition Betting at a little over 7% house advantage. A good DI & a bit of luck & you can make some serious $$$ at the Craps Table.
eagleeye2
Where's your buddy Little Joe to help you out of your predicament?
I am sure no two dice are "perfectly" balanced meaning that they are not "perfect."
Are they balanced enough for fair casino play? Yes.
Would a tiny imbalance on any die make a difference? I don't think so when you consider all of the other variables involved in a dice throw including flying through the air, hitting the table and the bounce and roll.
Would a tiny imbalance on any die make a difference if the die were tested on a balance machine? Maybe. But the balance machine doesn't measure the factors of the dice flying through the air, hitting the table and the bounce and the roll.
Do I think any casino would willingly use "loaded dice" that would offset even the other variables of flying through the air, hitting the table and the bounce and roll? They wouldn't dare, because the effect of such a load would immediately be detected by the players who would bust the casino... even before the regulators arrived at the front door.
Quote: DanMahoneyWhere's your buddy Little Joe to help you out of your predicament?
Dan,
Sorry, wish I knew who you are referring to, please enlighten me.
Thanks,
eagleeye2
I was hoping you just made a mistake in your wording "good shooter" but now i just feel for you.Quote: eagleeye2. A good DI & a bit of luck & you can make some serious $$$ at the Craps Table.
eagleeye2
Name one good DI? Just one.
With a bit of luck, balls and a quick hand maybe.
With a bit of luck you could fart the dice down the table make some serious $$$ at Craps.
There no way a DI is overcoming 7% even if by some miracle he did have some influence.
The average monthly statewide Craps hold percentage for Nevada between 2004 and 2015 is 13.09%, and the high is 17.56%.
Nevada Table Games
These are the Atlantic City numbers: Atlantic City
Tropicana Jan. 2012 70.3%
Tropicana April 2012 was 39%
Caesar's Feb 2012 was 32.2%
We can no longer find their hold for individual games, because they now hide the results and report total win percentages, rather than individual game percentages.
The Pai Gow hold is very high everywhere in AC.
I expected it to be much lower due to the low HE.
Caesars Pai Gow Poker Feb. 2013 was 54%
Harrah's Pai Gow Feb. 2013 was 89.8%
Often higher than 3CP, Let it Ride and Caribbean Stud
Quote: AlanMendelsonI've visited this thread from time to time and I would just like to say this:
I am sure no two dice are "perfectly" balanced meaning that they are not "perfect."
Are they balanced enough for fair casino play? Yes.
Would a tiny imbalance on any die make a difference? I don't think so when you consider all of the other variables involved in a dice throw including flying through the air, hitting the table and the bounce and roll.
Would a tiny imbalance on any die make a difference if the die were tested on a balance machine? Maybe. But the balance machine doesn't measure the factors of the dice flying through the air, hitting the table and the bounce and the roll.
Do I think any casino would willingly use "loaded dice" that would offset even the other variables of flying through the air, hitting the table and the bounce and roll? They wouldn't dare, because the effect of such a load would immediately be detected by the players who would bust the casino... even before the regulators arrived at the front door.
Alan,
Very well stated & likely very valid observations on your part, unlike most postings to this thread.
I ask, however, what out there accounts for an apparent unbalance in Casino Dice?
Secondly, does that relatively low level of Unbalance actually affect the numerical outcome of a Pair of Dice Thrown on a CRAPS Table, sufficiently for one to take advantage of that unbalance, under Casino Conditions?
My philosophy is that only real world Dice Shooting in an Actual Casino, will Cancel Out Virtually Every Nay~Swayer's thought rebuttal ,on this subject""
To this end, I have asked the following: Here is my latest Personal experience relative to the above & the concept of ~ ""DICE UNBALANCE MYSTERY ~ DICE PHYSICAL DATA
MathExtremist,
You may well be on to something & it may indicate that only a very small Die Unbalance can result in Altering the Numerical Output of a set if dice, thrown on a CRAPS Table.
Yesterday & today I Played Craps at a Casino I trust very well. Thinking about your Post, however brings up some strange coincidences, as follows:
This Casino Offers Small, Tall & All Betting, which I Love to Play on what look to be good shooters.
1) I personally made two Small Bets & missed three Tall Bets, for lack of only a 12. One of them would have given me the $1,210 for a $5 Across Bet, which I have yet to hit!
2) I saw several other Small Bets Made, But Not a Single TALL Bet, rather Strange & as I recall the 12 & 2 are both 36 to one odds, yet the 2 was hit 4 times during my play time potential, with ZERO 12's Hits on Tall potentials.
3) While I prefer to stick to 6's & 8's, pressing them on a continuing roll, I generally avoid the 4 & 10. This morning I seemed to hit an abnormal # of Hard 4's, & began betting it, which pad off a bit!
Coincidences, or Unbalanced Dice in Play, I am beginning to wonder???
Alan, Your opinion of the above???
NOTE: All other CRAPS Players, Please review your recent Craps experience, especially as it relates to SMALL ~ TALL ~ ALL betting, as the SMALL ~ TALL ~ ALL Bet; approximately quantifies the ratio of 1,1 Throws to 6,6 Throws over the course of a SMALL ~ TALL ~ ALL Bet Craps Throw.
Reporting your findings here, may Clinch the Effects of Unbalanced Dice Despite the Nay~Swayer's on the thread, & give those in the know that Elusive Advantage at the CRAPS TABLE!!
eagleeye2
Quote: AxelWolfI was hoping you just made a mistake in your wording "good shooter" but now i just feel for you.
Name one good DI? Just one.
With a bit of luck, balls and a quick hand maybe.
With a bit of luck you could fart the dice down the table make some serious $$$ at Craps.
There no way a DI is overcoming 7% even if by some miracle he did have some influence.
AxelWolf,
Yes, 7+% is difficult to overcome, however, it is looking like much less than that, assuming things mateeralizing on this very thread are Proven Valid!
Review recent postings & Thnk about it for a bit!
eagleeyye2
Quote: AxelWolfI was hoping you just made a mistake in your wording "good shooter" but now i just feel for you.
Name one good DI? Just one.
With a bit of luck, balls and a quick hand maybe.
With a bit of luck you could fart the dice down the table make some serious $$$ at Craps.
There no way a DI is overcoming 7% even if by some miracle he did have some influence.
AxelWolf,
Yes, 7+% is difficult to overcome, however, it is looking like much less than that, assuming things mateeralizing on this very thread are Proven Valid!
Review recent postings & Thnk about it for a bit!
eagleeyye2
Quote: eagleeye2Alan,
Very well stated & likely very valid observations on your part, unlike most postings to this thread.
I ask, however, what out there accounts for an apparent unbalance in Casino Dice?
I don't know. I've never experienced unbalanced dice or anything that would make me suspect unbalanced dice. I've seen great rolls, and I've seen my share of Point-Seven-Outs.
Here's a better thing to do than fish for stories: if you think you are using loaded dice at a table, IMMEDIATELY ask that an Enforcement Officer from the NGC be called to the table. Demand that the dice be removed from the table and put into a sealed envelope. They will look at you like you're crazy BUT THEY WILL DO IT. At the larger casinos there is an Enforcement Officer in the casino or nearby.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI don't know. I've never experienced unbalanced dice or anything that would make me suspect unbalanced dice. I've seen great rolls, and I've seen my share of Point-Seven-Outs.
Here's a better thing to do than fish for stories: if you think you are using loaded dice at a table, IMMEDIATELY ask that an Enforcement Officer from the NGC be called to the table. Demand that the dice be removed from the table and put into a sealed envelope. They will look at you like you're crazy BUT THEY WILL DO IT. At the larger casinos there is an Enforcement Officer in the casino or nearby.
Alan,
As you point out, there is more than one way to Skin A Cat, so to speak!
I, however, would rather keep the current level of Dice Unbalance In Place & establish a technique to Capitalize on it!
Link to Dice Unbalance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSx7aVMKCOQ&feature=youtu.be
Yes, I 100% Believe what I see in that U-Tube Video, as only GRAVITY is in Play there!
So unfortunately, your suggestion will not be implemented by me.
Any other comments on my last post ,to you?
eagleeye2
Quote: eagleeye2I, however, would rather keep the current level of Dice Unbalance In Place & establish a technique to Capitalize on it!
You won't find one. When the dice are fair, the casino has the edge on every single craps bet on the table. If the dice are biased, some of the bets may become player-favorable. No casino operator worth keeping their job would ever give the player an unrestricted edge on any craps bet.
Or do you think the casinos are unwittingly using biased dice?
Quote: MathExtremistYou won't find one. When the dice are fair, the casino has the edge on every single craps bet on the table. If the dice are biased, some of the bets may become player-favorable. No casino operator worth keeping their job would ever give the player an unrestricted edge on any craps bet.
Or do you think the casinos are unwittingly using biased dice?
Yes, there is ample evidence, IMHO, that Casino's are unaware of Dice Unbalance, & have no intention of altering their experiences, as long as they contginue to rake in $$$ on the Craps Tables, which they do.
eagleeye2
If you agree that casinos are "unaware" of unbalanced dice, then it does not make sense that the unbalanced dice would favor one group of bettors by adding even a small fraction of percentage to the EV. No casino could stay in business with "unbalanced" dice.Quote: eagleeye2Yes, there is ample evidence, IMHO, that Casino's are unaware of Dice Unbalance, & have no intention of altering their experiences, as long as they contginue to rake in $$$ on the Craps Tables, which they do.
Quote: eagleeye2Yes, there is ample evidence, IMHO, that Casino's are unaware of Dice Unbalance, & have no intention of altering their experiences, as long as they contginue to rake in $$$ on the Craps Tables, which they do.
eagleeye2
Until you can show me that the unbalanced dice offset the other variables of throwing dice I just have to dismiss any claims that dice are unbalanced. It's a moot point. That's just the reality of the situation.
Even if you can prove the dice are unbalanced, you still have to know how the dice will land and bet accordingly and hope that the other variables of the game will not offset the imbalance of the dice.
And then, by your own admission, if different dice in play each has its own imbalance, how can you possibly identify which bets to make? Remember, there probably aren't enough rolls with the same two dice for you to make a study that would pay off. If a casino had only two dice for shooters to use, and not five dice to choose from, you'd have a chance.
Sorry, but I think you'd be better off memorizing strategies for blackjack and video poker. Or, if you really are set on playing craps, try to perfect an influenced throw.
Quote: SanchoPanzaIf you agree that casinos are "unaware" of unbalanced dice, then it does not make sense that the unbalanced dice would favor one group of bettors by adding even a small fraction of percentage to the EV. No casino could stay in business with "unbalanced" dice.
SORRY SanchoPanza, but CASINO's DO & ARE Staying in Business, During the Very Time, that Unbalanced DICE are in Play!!
EVERYONE Can See the Evidence with there very own eyes, simply click on the link below...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSx7aVMKCOQ&feature=youtu.be
Also, you can bet with 100% certainty that as long as Casino's Continue to Rake In the $$$; like they are currently doing @ CRAPS, they will Rock Onward!
Thus, only by Understanding Dice Unbalance, will an individual CRAPS Player Gain Back a portion of the Casino's Advantage @ CRAPS...
Quote: ontariodealerthe only thing the casino has to do to win money from the players is open the game.
Yes, and that very fact allows one to gain an individual advantage, all while the Casino continues to Rake in the $$$
eaGLEEYE2
That is not a casino, and there is no sign whatsoever that those are the exact dice that any casino uses.Quote: eagleeye2SORRY SanchoPanza, but CASINO's DO & ARE Staying in Business, During the Very Time, that Unbalanced DICE are in Play!! EVERYONE Can See the Evidence with there very own eyes, simply click on the link below... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSx7aVMKCOQ&feature=youtu.be
That would be by betting don't. And the question has repeatedly been posed here which casinos casinos consistently use "unbalanced" dice? So far just one has even been mentioned in connection with such a scheme. It is notable that that allegation has been totally uncorroborated.Quote: eagleeye2Also, you can bet with 100% certainty that as long as Casino's Continue to Rake In the $$$; like they are currently doing @ CRAPS, they will Rock Onward! Thus, only by Understanding Dice Unbalance, will an individual CRAPS Player Gain Back a portion of the Casino's Advantage @ CRAPS...
Quote: SanchoPanzaThat is not a casino, and there is no sign whatsoever that those are the exact dice that any casino uses.
That would be by betting don't. And the question has repeatedly been posed here which casinos casinos consistently use "unbalanced" dice?
So far just one has even been mentioned in connection with such a scheme. It is notable that that allegation has been totally uncorroborated.
**********************************************************************************
No ~ That is Not True
""The link below shows CASINO's in Las Vegas that they think EMPLOY BIASED DICE, read all of it!
http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/p/biased-dice.html
....""
SancoPanza,
I posted the above to YOU ~ way back on April 2, you can go back & read the entire post if you wish.
Click on the link above to see a HUGE LIST of CASINO's that that group feels are using unbalanced DICE!
Yes, it's easy to forget, but what do you have to say now to the list in that link?
eagleeye2
Quote: SanchoPanzaThat is not a casino, and there is no sign whatsoever that those are the exact dice that any casino uses.
Come on now SanchoPanza,
Those very Dice were Purchased From HEAVY's web site, Have Heavy's Logo, Guaranteed 100% Balanced, Machined to 0.0001 Inch, & Made in Las Vegas, by the same Company that makes most Dice used in Las Vegas Casino's!
LINK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSx7aVMKCOQ&feature=youtu.be
Yes, these Dice are NO Different than tghe ones used in Las Vegas Casino's, Period.
Just how can you object to them?
eagleeye2
Quote: eagleeye2Yes, and that very fact allows one to gain an individual advantage, all while the Casino continues to Rake in the $$$
eaGLEEYE2
if people could gain an individual advantage, the casino would not have the game. Casino's are a very simple concept. Open games that have an advantage for the house and let time take its course.
