Craps Strategy Based on Trip Report - Request for Comments
March 29th, 2015 at 8:32:06 AM
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So as you know, I'm more of a Darksider bettor. However, this Vegas trip, I decided to be a "right' side bettor. The following pattern emerged during my trip resulting in some nice wins. A couple of quick losses (PSO) followed by a nice long stretch of numbers and points, followed by (PSO). Now I know we all can't foretell the future. I've been toying around with this strategy with real money, and it seems to at least cut down some variance compared to other strategies(seems is the operative word here).
Requesting comments from WoV members.
Basically under the above pattern described, I've been doing multiple come out points with 1-2X odds. The progression starts out something like this:
1.) Pass line Bet
2.) Point established - take odds on the pass line
3.) Add a come bet
4.) Come bet established - take odds on the come bet.
5.) Rinse repeat up to 3 (when just starting out) - 5 (when already having a profitable bankroll) come bets.
6.) When max come bets reached, either cease making come bets and allow for 1-2 hits to monetize existing come bets or increase value of the come bet to offset ~50% of total action on the board (effectively eliminating/hedging out non-odds). No odds are taken on the larger come bet.
7.) If very profitable, change strategy to give me 1-2 times place bets across, followed by the progression of steps 3 - 6. Every come bet established should result in a win on the place bets. Shift the place bets to odds and move 1x bets on to the come.
Everyone follow me? Looks overly complicated. I suppose catching a nice long roll means everyone betting for the shooter is a winner. I like the increased come bet value hedging in step 6. It has saved my butt many times (shooter distracted by waitress, hooker, wife etc). I also like how if I let some of the come bets resolve, I'm locking in profit (which is easier than simply taking down place bets outright for some reason? Rhetorical? Why is it so hard to take down action on a hot shooter? Hubris?).
How does this strategy stack up to just doing place bets across and pressing? I'd imagine you'd probably make more doing just that. So greater variance. The catch is, not taking down any of those place bets to monetize or constantly having the pit re-adjust your bets. 96 across, press, press, press even, 192 across, press/reduce, etc. The other caveat is that without having a come bet, that seven out is BRUTAL.
I have no clue when a shooter is going to roll a 7. I'd like to hedge some of this out when I see certain things I don't like such as distractions. Place bets across is great in that I can take them down any time. Come bets with Odds essentially means it is locked up, with the exception of the odds. If I go off on the odds, I can place a higher come bet to negate the ones already established.
Choppy tables obviously kills both strategies. Sometimes if I'm up a lot, and I feel its getting choppy I can do Pass + Come + 2X Come + 3X Come ..... resolve 1 of 3 and reset Come higher until i let it multiple come get resolved to take profit.
I employed this strategy and the guy next to me simply had place bets across and kept pressing. I noticed his bankroll increased about 3X whereas mine was about 1-2X. 7 out came at various spots. Sometimes he was very far ahead and sometimes he was pretty far behind proportionately speaking that is. He did do one smart thing, which was it was time for dinner and he cashed out while ahead. I coincidentally cashed out cause I had to go pee. =P Good enough reason to stop, but how many times have you held it in to milk the last roll of a hot shooter?
So guys/gals, what do you think? Approve, disapprove, neutral, better way to adjust?
Requesting comments from WoV members.
Basically under the above pattern described, I've been doing multiple come out points with 1-2X odds. The progression starts out something like this:
1.) Pass line Bet
2.) Point established - take odds on the pass line
3.) Add a come bet
4.) Come bet established - take odds on the come bet.
5.) Rinse repeat up to 3 (when just starting out) - 5 (when already having a profitable bankroll) come bets.
6.) When max come bets reached, either cease making come bets and allow for 1-2 hits to monetize existing come bets or increase value of the come bet to offset ~50% of total action on the board (effectively eliminating/hedging out non-odds). No odds are taken on the larger come bet.
7.) If very profitable, change strategy to give me 1-2 times place bets across, followed by the progression of steps 3 - 6. Every come bet established should result in a win on the place bets. Shift the place bets to odds and move 1x bets on to the come.
Everyone follow me? Looks overly complicated. I suppose catching a nice long roll means everyone betting for the shooter is a winner. I like the increased come bet value hedging in step 6. It has saved my butt many times (shooter distracted by waitress, hooker, wife etc). I also like how if I let some of the come bets resolve, I'm locking in profit (which is easier than simply taking down place bets outright for some reason? Rhetorical? Why is it so hard to take down action on a hot shooter? Hubris?).
How does this strategy stack up to just doing place bets across and pressing? I'd imagine you'd probably make more doing just that. So greater variance. The catch is, not taking down any of those place bets to monetize or constantly having the pit re-adjust your bets. 96 across, press, press, press even, 192 across, press/reduce, etc. The other caveat is that without having a come bet, that seven out is BRUTAL.
I have no clue when a shooter is going to roll a 7. I'd like to hedge some of this out when I see certain things I don't like such as distractions. Place bets across is great in that I can take them down any time. Come bets with Odds essentially means it is locked up, with the exception of the odds. If I go off on the odds, I can place a higher come bet to negate the ones already established.
Choppy tables obviously kills both strategies. Sometimes if I'm up a lot, and I feel its getting choppy I can do Pass + Come + 2X Come + 3X Come ..... resolve 1 of 3 and reset Come higher until i let it multiple come get resolved to take profit.
I employed this strategy and the guy next to me simply had place bets across and kept pressing. I noticed his bankroll increased about 3X whereas mine was about 1-2X. 7 out came at various spots. Sometimes he was very far ahead and sometimes he was pretty far behind proportionately speaking that is. He did do one smart thing, which was it was time for dinner and he cashed out while ahead. I coincidentally cashed out cause I had to go pee. =P Good enough reason to stop, but how many times have you held it in to milk the last roll of a hot shooter?
So guys/gals, what do you think? Approve, disapprove, neutral, better way to adjust?
March 29th, 2015 at 8:51:19 AM
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"When max come bets reached, either cease making come bets and allow for 1-2 hits to monetize existing come bets or"
interesting stopping strategy.
on a $10min, 3/4/5 odds table, my bankroll is big enough to play '3 point betty' w/max odds.
once I won enough to cover what I have on the table, i switch to continuous come.
once i have all the #s covered, i increase my Come bet by 50% (to $15).
my stopping point is double what i brought to the table. but once i am near it, i play till the shooter 7s out.
i have yet to say 'Down' in the middle of a shooters roll to color up and leave my pass/come flat bets for dealer tips.
mainly because I'm afraid they wont color up till the end of the shooters roll... stopping the action and all that?
and it will be a sick to the stomach feeling watching the shooter hitting more come bets after you take all your bets down. :(
interesting stopping strategy.
on a $10min, 3/4/5 odds table, my bankroll is big enough to play '3 point betty' w/max odds.
once I won enough to cover what I have on the table, i switch to continuous come.
once i have all the #s covered, i increase my Come bet by 50% (to $15).
my stopping point is double what i brought to the table. but once i am near it, i play till the shooter 7s out.
i have yet to say 'Down' in the middle of a shooters roll to color up and leave my pass/come flat bets for dealer tips.
mainly because I'm afraid they wont color up till the end of the shooters roll... stopping the action and all that?
and it will be a sick to the stomach feeling watching the shooter hitting more come bets after you take all your bets down. :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
