Slowing the game

Does it bother anyone but me, when people slow the game down to make a lay bet, when there is only one number needed to roll, for the make em all bet to win? I mean stop the hot roll, really....

and how exactly does the late bet stop the hot roll????

I have seen 6 players hold the game up all making a lay against the 9, the other day including two buyins to make their lays. It took about 3 minutes. Of course 7 out then. It happens all the time shooters and or players stop the game to all make their lay bets when they are one away from hitting all numbers.

I would personally bet my entire bankroll on the Any-7 whenever this happens. Since it happens all the time, it is guaranteed to make you rich!

They dont do that because its a one roll bet. Their hedging to guarantee a win,

Quote: allinriverking

Does it bother anyone but me, when people slow the game down to make a lay bet, when there is only one number needed to roll, for the make em all bet to win? I mean stop the hot roll, really....

Between rolls players can buy-in or make any wager they want. But I think if they are betting against the shooter they should not make their wagers with enthusiasm.

allinriveking.....it is in your best interests to never go in a casino again.

Quote: FCBLComish

I would personally bet my entire bankroll on the Any-7 whenever this happens. Since it happens all the time, it is guaranteed to make you rich!

Exactly
I have no clue why allinriverking just doesn't take advantage of this.

He should stand around until a "hot roll" then just slow down the game himself and bet everything on 7. I vote it System of the year.

and they wonder how casino's make all that money.

Quote: ontariodealer

and they wonder how casino's make all that money.

Casinos gotta make their money somehow....that's why they rotate dealers around, since a stick change always causes a 7-out. ;)

Quote: allinriverking

Does it bother anyone but me, when people slow the game down to make a lay bet, when there is only one number needed to roll, for the make em all bet to win? I mean stop the hot roll, really....

Aside from the ribbing you're getting riverking, can you clarify your original statement? Are you referring to the "all or nothing" bet that pays 176/1?

I don't see how "lay" bets could slow down the game. It's as simple as a place bet for an experienced dealer. On the other hand A rookie dealer might run into some confusion, I've experienced It firsthand. It's not a popular bet so maybe the dealers at your casino don't know the wager minimums and payouts. What bothers me is LATE bettors.Thats what truly slows the game down. If you want to bet late play roulette!

I don't see how "lay" bets could slow down the game. It's as simple as a place bet for an experienced dealer. On the other hand A rookie dealer might run into some confusion, I've experienced It firsthand. It's not a popular bet so maybe the dealers at your casino don't know the wager minimums and payouts. What bothers me is LATE bettors.Thats what truly slows the game down. If you want to bet late play roulette!

Quote: spr1000

I don't see how "lay" bets could slow down the game. It's as simple as a place bet for an experienced dealer. On the other hand A rookie dealer might run into some confusion, I've experienced It firsthand. It's not a popular bet so maybe the dealers at your casino don't know the wager minimums and payouts. What bothers me is LATE bettors.Thats what truly slows the game down. If you want to bet late play roulette!

Depends on the amount and if it's a normal number. Sometimes players throw down a bunch of chips and say "Lay the 6 for as much as I can". Oftentimes it's some weird amount (like a hail mary play with last of their chips) or it's people doing it to hedge a fire bet (or all tall small bet). If there are several players doing it, it can get quite confusing...especially if the boxman is an idiot and doesn't help out.

If someone throws down $100 in green and $25 in red, says "Lay the 6 for $120" [vig upfront], that's easy. If someone throws down a chunk of reds and whites, totalling $283, dealer has to figure out what amount can be bet and take the vig out from that. Even with a calculator, pen and paper, that's not going to be too easy to figure out in 10 or 15 seconds, like you'd expect a dealer to.

Quote: RS

Depends on the amount and if it's a normal number. Sometimes players throw down a bunch of chips and say "Lay the 6 for as much as I can". Oftentimes it's some weird amount (like a hail mary play with last of their chips) or it's people doing it to hedge a fire bet (or all tall small bet). If there are several players doing it, it can get quite confusing...especially if the boxman is an idiot and doesn't help out.

If someone throws down $100 in green and $25 in red, says "Lay the 6 for $120" [vig upfront], that's easy. If someone throws down a chunk of reds and whites, totalling $283, dealer has to figure out what amount can be bet and take the vig out from that. Even with a calculator, pen and paper, that's not going to be too easy to figure out in 10 or 15 seconds, like you'd expect a dealer to.

In Vegas I never see multiple players doing Lay bets. It's usually 1 player at the table.. The reality is, not many players do lay bets or understand the concept .Like I said,an experienced dealer can lay a bet as fast as they can place one. Regardless of the amount.Some of the bets that really slow the game down are hop,horn,hardways,and LATE bets.Regardless if your laying,placing or propping if You bet late the stick will pull the dice back till the bet is wagered. Usually their equally as frustrated and after the late bet they will say " no more bets" and pass the dice to the shooter. With that being said I've never once seen a lay bet slow down a game.

I occasionally play craps for recreation with friends. I know it's -EV, so I minimize the EV by only playing pass and don't pass bets and track how much I'm giving up. When the expected loss equals the cost of a movie and popcorn, I leave, if not before. Therefore, I LOVE it when players slow the game down! They are saving me money. I've never understood the need to play a negative EV game fast?

Now if the reason it's being slowed down has a secondary reason, like the shooter is a pompous jerk, then I guess it might justify leaving. I just prefer to bet the opposite side as him.

Quote: bodyforlife

Aside from the ribbing you're getting riverking, can you clarify your original statement? Are you referring to the "all or nothing" bet that pays 176/1?

Yes.

Quote: allinriverking

Yes.

So let me give you my take on the "all or nothing" bet. If you are fortunate enough to get all but one number AND the final number has the opportunity for a "lay" bet (so it's not 2,3,11, or 12), I would do a "lay" bet every time. I believe in hedging a bet when I am in a sure win situation. If I have $5 on it and stand to win $880, why be greedy? It's easy enough to buy some back and guarantee maybe a couple of hundred or $600 (or just split it down the middle and guarantee from $300-$400). You have to admit, that's a pretty good payout for a $5 wager. And of course, there are those that truly want to go "all or nothing". That's just not me, but maybe that works with your risk tolerance. To each his own.

Quote: bodyforlife

So let me give you my take on the "all or nothing" bet. If you are fortunate enough to get all but one number AND the final number has the opportunity for a "lay" bet (so it's not 2,3,11, or 12), I would do a "lay" bet every time. I believe in hedging a bet when I am in a sure win situation. If I have $5 on it and stand to win $880, why be greedy? It's easy enough to buy some back and guarantee maybe a couple of hundred or $600 (or just split it down the middle and guarantee from $300-$400). You have to admit, that's a pretty good payout for a $5 wager. And of course, there are those that truly want to go "all or nothing". That's just not me, but maybe that works with your risk tolerance. To each his own.

I find this fascinating from a psychological standpoint. From a math standpoint I find this boring and trivial but tedious. So I'll skip the math; someone who likes mathematical drudgery for the sake of mathematical drudgery can do that exact boring math.

Well, this appears to make a lot of sense doesn't it? You've gotten to within one number of the ATS, and with your method you will definitely win roughly half of what you'd otherwise win (and might not win). But then again, you don't risk losing all of the potential 176:1 payout. You just "pay" roughly half of your opportunity-win to the hedge.

But look at it another way.

If you play the ATS for that 176:1 payoff then you already play with a pretty bad house edge. But I presume you know that.

But in your scenario you've gotten to within one number of winning, so if you hedge your ATS bet at that point you definitely will win roughly half of what you would have won if you made that last number (the exact math doesn't matter here; you'll see why).

So, it seems like that smart thing to do at that point. Take roughly half and get a sure thing, compared to all of what you might win (or not win in which case you're out your original $5). Not greedy and all that. Smugness surely applies at this point. :)

However, consider the following. And in order to simplify things without loss of generality, presume you can hedge no matter what number you need (you can; I leave this as an exercise for the reader). Okay. Now in order to win that ATS bet, ever, under any possible circumstances, you *have* to get to a situation where you only have one number to go. By definition. Duh, right?

This means that, using your strategy, you will *always* take the hedge. Always. Okay. Kudos for your discipline.

That means, best case, you have (for the purposes of when you make those original ATS bets) changed the payout to 88:1 (roughly; actually a bit worse than that, but it doesn't really matter that much).

So instead of making a 176:1 payout bet with a bad house edge, you make, in effect, a bet roughly more than twice as bad in terms of house edge. Every single time you make the original bet.

Now, maybe you don't care. Or maybe you can't take the anxiety with one number to go. Et cetera. I don't mind in such a case so long as you realize what you've done. But you have (roughly, but on the close order) doubled the house edge on an already bad bet using this strategy. Which means, if you do it enough, you'll lose roughly twice as much than if you didn't hedge.

But again: maybe you don't care. After all, you play the ATS bet in the first place (I avoid it but a lot of people consider me a numbskull). And I have seen the ATS bet win several times (once when I shot; I had no bets on it of course, but another player had $100 on it although he played a rather worse hedging method than you propose -- I have never seen a happier craps player on a win though! Even though I saw him lose more money than he won for the roughly 3 hours total I saw him play I suspect he got more than his money's worth psychologically).


P.S. I omit the obvious logical recurrence relation in terms of payout that such a hedging strategy implies. E.g., if you get within 2 numbers then do a hedge that "guarantees" you will win either way, and then, why not do it for 3 numbers away, and then, . . . until you get to 10 numbers away (hey! wait!) -- simple stuff and pretty trivial of course. But if you do it that way, tail recursing all the way to the original bet, then you'd see you would start your hedging on your original bet (and I have seen ATS players do this!), which, I suspect, would, from a psychological standpoint, make clear that this method makes you lose faster (or not; those players I've seen kept doing it despite the evidence of their senses).

Con,
First off, the HE on the ATS bet is around 7%. Not great, but still better than any of the hardways and other center table action.

Now that is with no hedge ,so the full 176:1 payout.
You are correct that taking the hedge effectively changes your payout to around 88:1, but you also now increase your number of wins , since you only need 9 numbers to win, instead of 10. So you get a lower payout, but one that happens more frequently. How that affects the HE of the bet is an exercise for others.


I like the bet.
Nothing beats stepping up to a table for the start of 4 hours of play, putting $5,$5,$5 on the A,T,S, and have it hit right out of the gate! I've had this happen a couple of times.
+$175 for the S, +$175 for the T, and +$875 for the A = +$1225 off the first shooter (Not to mention whatever was made during the roll.
On the negative side, having someone throw 3 consecutive 7 winners on the Come Out roll really bites.... -$45

Just the opposite. The game is to your advantage when it moves fast. Would you rather have 50 rolls per hour or 100?
I'm no mathmatician,I'm going basic common sense. More rolls per hour gives you a better edge oppose to less.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Con,
First off, the HE on the ATS bet is around 7%. Not great, but still better than any of the hardways and other center table action.

Now that is with no hedge ,so the full 176:1 payout.
You are correct that taking the hedge effectively changes your payout to around 88:1, but you also now increase your number of wins , since you only need 9 numbers to win, instead of 10. So you get a lower payout, but one that happens more frequently. How that affects the HE of the bet is an exercise for others.


I like the bet.
Nothing beats stepping up to a table for the start of 4 hours of play, putting $5,$5,$5 on the A,T,S, and have it hit right out of the gate! I've had this happen a couple of times.
+$175 for the S, +$175 for the T, and +$875 for the A = +$1225 off the first shooter (Not to mention whatever was made during the roll.
On the negative side, having someone throw 3 consecutive 7 winners on the Come Out roll really bites.... -$45

Well, what can I say?

Good luck to you!

I'm just answering his question, Concinnity. You seem to be making an assumption that I place the bet myself or actually think it's a good way to wager (I don't). But I think the answer is people do it to arbitrage. And yes, I am a person that will arbitrage when the situation calls for it. But it's usually on sports wagers or something that gives me an opportunity for a double win. I never place the "all or nothing" wager, or any that give a casino a house edge like that. But I assure you, if someone placed it for me, I'd arbitrage it in that situation regardless of how much the odds were reduced. I'd feel pretty darn silly trying to justify it with a math calculation when that seven rolls and I realized I could have pocketed some money. I think it's more about risk tolerance. It's not all that different from how people manage their 401Ks as they get older. Many take much less risk in their portfolios even though they realize they probably won't make the same return. Of course, that's to prevent being in a situation like many people found themselves in back in 2008 (I guess you could say that's the "seven out" on the "all or nothing" wager).

Quote: spr1000

Just the opposite. The game is to your advantage when it moves fast. Would you rather have 50 rolls per hour or 100?
I'm no mathmatician,I'm going basic common sense. More rolls per hour gives you a better edge oppose to less.

Almost 100% of players play craps at a disadvantage.

I've actually have played craps with a (huge) advantage before. But I don't want to bore anyone with the details....perhaps I'll tell the story when it isn't sensitive information, down the road.

Quote: spr1000

Just the opposite. The game is to your advantage when it moves fast. Would you rather have 50 rolls per hour or 100?
I'm no mathmatician,I'm going basic common sense. More rolls per hour gives you a better edge oppose to less.

Disagree, unless I have some sort of legal advantage, like match play tickets or free play cheques, I'm playing at a disadvantage. More rolls per hour means more expected loss per hour.

Well my two cents is that most of the time the last number will be 2,3,11 or 12 which of course you can't hedge. But in my case, playing $5/10/5 on the small/all/tall, the "all" bet pays about $2,000. Played it during four sessions in the last month, maybe 10 or so shooters per session, and hit it twice, with the last number being a 4 both times, which I layed for $600. When I made the lay bet I said loudly I hope I lose. I was the shooter on one occasion. My other experience was on a fire bet which I had $10 on. Shooter hit 4 numbers and then came out with a four so he was going for a fifth number which would have paid $2500. I told the dealer I wanted to make a lay bet, started fumbling with my chips and next thing I know the shooter had the dice, and quickly threw the wrong number. I was a little upset they di not give me time to make the lay bet.

Yep, thumbs up Duane. And if you ever get in a situation like that again with the firebet, I suggest you jump on the table like Chris Tucker in Rush Hour 2. Don't let them roll dem bones until you get your "lay"!

Quote: bodyforlife

I'm just answering his question, Concinnity. You seem to be making an assumption that I place the bet myself or actually think it's a good way to wager (I don't). But I think the answer is people do it to arbitrage. And yes, I am a person that will arbitrage when the situation calls for it. But it's usually on sports wagers or something that gives me an opportunity for a double win. I never place the "all or nothing" wager, or any that give a casino a house edge like that. But I assure you, if someone placed it for me, I'd arbitrage it in that situation regardless of how much the odds were reduced. I'd feel pretty darn silly trying to justify it with a math calculation when that seven rolls and I realized I could have pocketed some money. I think it's more about risk tolerance. It's not all that different from how people manage their 401Ks as they get older. Many take much less risk in their portfolios even though they realize they probably won't make the same return. Of course, that's to prevent being in a situation like many people found themselves in back in 2008 (I guess you could say that's the "seven out" on the "all or nothing" wager).

bodyforlife, I apologize for assuming that you placed that bet yourself. I shouldn't have. You wrote clearly. My mistake, and I hope you forgive me. I feel ashamed of myself, and if I had a piranha pond nearby I'd consider jumping in it to atone. But I probably wouldn't. But I would certainly think about it. If we ever meet I owe you a drink though.

In the scenario you describe above, you most definitely would engage in arbitrage (because you didn't pay for the bet). But I don't think that happens with most people, in which case, someone doing the strategy described would engage in hedging. I write this only because I see people misusing common terms on this forum (like using "variance" when they mean "volatility") and wouldn't want to see people using "arbitrage" when they mean "hedge." But anyway. (And I still haven't found out the term for that second phase of the game, after the come-out roll -- if I don't get an answer soon then I will definitely invent a really good term for it like "out of the closet roll" (what happens after coming out) -- someone remind me.)

Yeah, if someone made a free ATS bet for me I might consider doing that. I might not (I suppose it would depend on my mood). I omit much that would go through my mind; I don't want to bore you all more than I have with things like "The Monty Hall Problem" and so forth.

Re: your financial analogy about 2008 and so forth, I find it amusing (and I suppose you do too) that we have had a recent popularity in hedge funds on Wall Street since then. :) I don't touch those, myself. I have no problem with arbitrage though (although I don't personally have the time for it).

bodyforlife, because I like the way your mind works, I'll give you another arbitrage scenario/problem, because I feel curious as to what you'd do. Suppose you played the pass line (make it enough money to make it interesting for you in terms of deciding things) and suppose the shooter established a point (let's make the point a 6). Suppose you took double odds but could take as much as 5X. Ho hum. Now suppose, for whatever reason, another player decided to do something nice for you and gave a bunch of chips to the dealer and told him to bump your odds up to full odds (an additional 3X your line bet) and then that player (whom you never met before) suddenly went away because his wife, mistress, girlfriend, and boy toy all just got back from shopping together and pulled him away from the table to make him help them carry their packages back to his villa (I added that to the scenario to eliminate any social aspects for what follows -- you can't offend the guy by your actions).

Suddenly, some guy in a Stetson walks up to the table and throws down $50,000 to buy in with brand new $100 bills. So the play has slowed to a crawl and you have lots of time to think about things before the shooter gets the dice.

Would you take the extra odds off the table? Or maybe just half of them (or close to it; however the arithmetic worked out)? Or not touch them?

You see the similar circumstances here, of course. You might even have the same probability of winning as the original ATS scenario (depending on the number needed). You could, of course, hedge if you wanted to by laying the 6. Or you could just pick up the extra odds and have risk-free extra-money.

What would you do?

That's hard for me to answer because I would never be in that position. I simply would never put 2x odds on a pass line wager if the max was 5x. I have been at some of the strip casinos on a busy weekend (the most recent being Superbowl weekend). I was at the Palazzo and there was no space at the $25 tables (I prefer $10, but will step up to $25 if need be), so it was nothing but $50 (too rich for my blood). I went to the Wynn and it was the same thing. I decided I wanted to play so I simply put a $50 wager on the DP and didn't take odds. That's what I do in situations where the minimums are too high for me to take max odds (or I don't play). I don't get concerned about taking odds on a DP because "true odds" are actually worse than the position you're in after that come out roll. But on a PL wager, it's max odds or I don't play. I should also mention that my comment regarding if someone put a wager down for me on an "all or nothing" was only made because I wouldn't put the wager down myself. But that wager amount should really have no bearing on what either of us would do in that situation (after all, I'm sure neither one of us are too concerned with a buck). The difference is a person that claims they would just leave the wager, simply doesn't value a $200-$300 payout like I do in lieu of the bigger payout. That's really the issue here (not the mathematical calculation)

And may I say, you have a very, vivid imagination.

Quote: RS

Almost 100% of players play craps at a disadvantage.

I've actually have played craps with a (huge) advantage before. But I don't want to bore anyone with the details....perhaps I'll tell the story when it isn't sensitive information, down the road.

I'd love to be bored. Loaded dice?

The slowest game I ever saw:

Shooter had the dice for close to an hour, chips were stacked high all over the table, but it took nearly five minutes to get a roll because players were going nuts calling bets on and off, trimming bets, adding odds, reducing odds, and so forth.

Finally out of frustration floorman yells -- last turn for everyone, what's your bet?

And that's what happened for about the next twenty minutes. One by one the dealers went around the table asking each player to state their bet -- NO changes. It still took nearly five minutes to get a roll, but at least some order was restored.

Quote: AlanMendelson

The slowest game I ever saw:

Shooter had the dice for close to an hour, chips were stacked high all over the table, but it took nearly five minutes to get a roll because players were going nuts calling bets on and off, trimming bets, adding odds, reducing odds, and so forth.

Finally out of frustration floorman yells -- last turn for everyone, what's your bet?

And that's what happened for about the next twenty minutes. One by one the dealers went around the table asking each player to state their bet -- NO changes. It still took nearly five minutes to get a roll, but at least some order was restored.

If everyone has had their chance, stickman should just say "Bets are set, dice are moving, no more bets, hands up."

Quote: bodyforlife

I'd love to be bored. Loaded dice?

Whatever rs knows he's taking to the grave..... Unless he writes the novel.

Quote: bodyforlife

That's hard for me to answer because I would never be in that position. I simply would never put 2x odds on a pass line wager if the max was 5x. I have been at some of the strip casinos on a busy weekend (the most recent being Superbowl weekend). I was at the Palazzo and there was no space at the $25 tables (I prefer $10, but will step up to $25 if need be), so it was nothing but $50 (too rich for my blood). I went to the Wynn and it was the same thing. I decided I wanted to play so I simply put a $50 wager on the DP and didn't take odds. That's what I do in situations where the minimums are too high for me to take max odds (or I don't play). I don't get concerned about taking odds on a DP because "true odds" are actually worse than the position you're in after that come out roll. But on a PL wager, it's max odds or I don't play. I should also mention that my comment regarding if someone put a wager down for me on an "all or nothing" was only made because I wouldn't put the wager down myself. But that wager amount should really have no bearing on what either of us would do in that situation (after all, I'm sure neither one of us are too concerned with a buck). The difference is a person that claims they would just leave the wager, simply doesn't value a $200-$300 payout like I do in lieu of the bigger payout. That's really the issue here (not the mathematical calculation)

And may I say, you have a very, vivid imagination.

Okay, bodyforlife, well, consider the same exact scenario, except you played the DP without odds (which you seem to prefer, and my compliments), and the guy plunked down full odds for you. Would you pick them up and put them in your pocket in an obvious non-ratholing way? Or otherwise take them out of play?

You have no idea re: my soi disant "vivid imagination." Thank you, but I really don't have much of an imagination (but people think I do because they think I make this stuff up). I just take these things from real-life scenarios that I have seen (I have lived an exceptionally interesting life). Well, except for the piranha pond at Wynn. I really have no idea if they have one of those, but if not: they should. It would really draw crowds, especially at feeding time when they bring out the high-rollers who don't want to make good on their markers and should have read the fine print. If Steve Wynn wants to put me on the payroll as a "creative consultant" I have no objection.

Quote: Concinnity

Would you pick them up and put them in your pocket in an obvious non-ratholing way?

Depending on who left them, I might actually try to give them back. But assuming it was a high roller, I'd just pocket them and say thanks. Of course, if I kept playing after that roll, one could say I just used them for betting. If I stopped, then it would simply be accepting a gift and that would be that.

Quote: bodyforlife

Depending on who left them, I might actually try to give them back. But assuming it was a high roller, I'd just pocket them and say thanks. Of course, if I kept playing after that roll, one could say I just used them for betting. If I stopped, then it would simply be accepting a gift and that would be that.

Good for you! I've often wondered about "tipping" the shooter and the etiquette of all that. I wonder what others think, especially given the social aspect of craps (as opposed to, say, a slot machine, or roulette).

Quote: MidwestAP

I occasionally play craps for recreation with friends. I know it's -EV, so I minimize the EV by only playing pass and don't pass bets and track how much I'm giving up. When the expected loss equals the cost of a movie and popcorn, I leave, if not before. Therefore, I LOVE it when players slow the game down! They are saving me money. I've never understood the need to play a negative EV game fast?

Now if the reason it's being slowed down has a secondary reason, like the shooter is a pompous jerk, then I guess it might justify leaving. I just prefer to bet the opposite side as him.

This is great advice and I need to make more of an effort to play at crowded craps tables. On my upcoming Vegas trip I gave my host an the ElCo an estimate of how much I would be playing, and hopefully will play a bit more to get my 3 nights comped (he promised 2 nights comped if I play what I told him).

Getting those specified number of hours in while the table is at least moderately full will be part of my strategy to reduce the -EV.