Seven twice in a row - then progressive +1 bet 6/8

What do you all think of this?

(NOTE/KEY: Place bets are working on the come out roll, {A/B/C/D/E/F/G...} = "betting rounds" or rolls)
BANKROLL REQUIRED = $1,452
Wait for a seven to hit twice in a row. Then bet a single unit ($6) on the Place6 and Place8. If a third seven (loss) then bet the total lost from the beginning +2 units (you'll see why +2 units). Ok, read the below "system". I would like to code this in WinCraps, but I have no clue how. I am only a novice at JAVA coding.


Two sevens hit back to back. This begins the betting system. (or hopes and dreams)

Bet $6 on the 6/8 each (of course)
{A} Total down = $12
7 hits again.
Total loss from beginning = {A} $12
Bet is now Total Loss{A} + 1 unit ($6) on each 6/8 = $18 on the 6/8 each.
{B} Total down = $36
7 hits again.
Total loss from beginning = {A} + {B} = $48
Bet is now Total Loss {A} + {B} + 1 unit ($6) on each 6/8 = $54 on the 6/8 each
{C} Total down = $108
7 hits again.
Total loss from beginning = {A} + {B} + {C} = $156
Bet is now Total Loss {A} + {B} + {C} + 1 unit ($6) on each 6/8 = $162 on the 6/8 each
{D} Total down = $324
7 hit again.
Total loss from beginning = {A} + {B} + {C} + {D} = $480
Bet is now Total Loss {A} + {B} + {C} + {D} + 1 unit ($6) on each 6/8 = $486 on the 6/8 each
{E} Total down = $972
7 hits again.
Total loss from beginning = {A} + {B} + {C} + {D} + {E} = $1,452

The casino I go to is the Mardi Gras Casino and Resort in Charleston, WV and their table caps bets out at $500 so I will stop at {E}

Is this a good betting strategy as I'm sure the odds of a seven hitting seven times are slim? Very well possible but slim. I know this would be a VERY slow grind but hey. They way I see it is if I can go to the Casino and make more money and hour that my actual hourly pay rate at my job. Then it is worth going.

Yes yes I know the chances are always 1/6 no matter how many 7's pop up. But there is still the law of probability here. I'm just curious as to how it works in favor of this "system".

THANKS

Its not a winning system. You're simply betting that a 6 or 8 will hit before 5 sevens hit. The dice don't remember if they rolled 2 sevens before that.

Why does it matter if you wait for 2 sevens to roll (in a row) before placing your first bet? Either:

- You lose less money doing that (per hour)
OR
- There's really no reason actually.



Don't use betting systems unless you're fully prepared to get crushed. Sure most of the time you'll win. Sometimes you'll lose. You lose more than you win. That big loss isn't necessarily going to come 3 weeks from now -- it could very well happen in the first 20 minutes.

The only time you win at craps is when the monster roll comes along. You have to increase your bets accordingly as the roll progresses, in meantime you simply try to survive.

Quote: Dicenor33

The only time you win at craps is when the monster roll comes along. You have to increase your bets accordingly as the roll progresses, in meantime you simply try to survive.

How do you know when the monster roll is coming along? How do you increase your bets accordingly?

Quote: ghostcrap

What do you all think of this?

Basically a Martingale you have hear sir, I'd say read up on what's wrong with those. Been around for centuries. If you like small wins, it'll give you some, but the big crushing loss is coming.

I think the question I have for Martingalers anymore is, isn't it more fun to press your bets when you are winning, rather than pressing when you are losing?

Quote: odiousgambit

Basically a Martingale you have hear sir, I'd say read up on what's wrong with those. Been around for centuries. If you like small wins, it'll give you some, but the big crushing loss is coming.

I think the question I have for Martingalers anymore is, isn't it more fun to press your bets when you are winning, rather than pressing when you are losing?

They are really both the opposite. Martingalers usually win small, rarely lose big. The guys who press press press usually lose, but sometimes win big.

One player wants to grind it out (martingale) and the "gambler" wants to win it big on a monster roll. Neither show a positive edge.

Quote: RS

Neither show a positive edge.

That should have been added, yes.

However, IMO, and people do vary in what they like, it is also a matter of having fun. Sweating out a martingale that is stringing out is no fun ... geez when it finally kicks in you're just back to where you started!

Question: if a 6 or 8 hits before a 7, do you keep the place bet on the other number up, or do you take it down immediately?

Also, "the law of probability" says that things don't necessarily "balance out" completely, especially in the short term. Even if they did, how do you know that there weren't far more 6s and 8s rolled than 7s before you got to the table? For that matter, does switching dice affect this "balance"? How about switching tables? How about switching casinos, for that matter?

Quote: ghostcrap

What do you all think of this?

(NOTE/KEY: Place bets are working on the come out roll, {A/B/C/D/E/F/G...} = "betting rounds" or rolls)
BANKROLL REQUIRED = $1,452
Wait for a seven to hit twice in a row. Then bet a single unit ($6) on the Place6 and Place8. If a third seven (loss) then bet the total lost from the beginning +2 units (you'll see why +2 units). Ok, read the below "system". I would like to code this in WinCraps, but I have no clue how. I am only a novice at JAVA coding.

sounds fun
but
well, I ,as most girls, do not like waiting around

but if you have fun doing this, who am I (other than Sally)

I actually have this already programmed in WinCraps (both versions) and I think it is very easy to program in both WC versions

but it is about time to head out to Las Vegas for the weekend

I may have some time tomorrow to show the code I do have, as it is on a different computer
(maybe Alan and/or Steen too)

so,
what chance do you think you have to double your starting 1452 bankroll?
50%
66%
75%
90%
100%
5%
1%
0%
other

and how many rolls on average do you think you have to wait until you see 2 7s in a row and then make that bet?
wait!
OK
I have a thread about this if interested

I love 7s too
I make Lay bets that win on any 7

Sally

I forgot to include in my original post that I am aware that the dice do not "remember" their last hits. I was saddened to see a couple people remind me of that. Considering the reasonable length I went in typing that post. Just kidding you all, but come on lol.

I HAVE TO disagree with that the probability is the same every single roll. Lets say you stood there waiting on two sevens back to back. It will happen generally speaking, half an hour, ish... But if you stand there waiting on ten or thirty back to back sevens. you will likely die of old age before you roll that 30 in your lifetime.

What I was curious is as to the mathematics behind how many rolls are predicted before back to back sevens.

This system of waiting is just to play a bit more on the safer side of things. I know that due to table max bet, that I would eventually get hurt. But if I waited for two or three sevens and played this method. I would be much much safer.

Adding to it, seven out twice then play 5-6-8-9. Or x2 units on the 568 then a single on the field. If it wins, pull it down. If it 7's out. Then push the progressive bets. Each bet being the total+1 of all lost. Yes I know it would require a large bankroll to cover it all. But it would be worth it. I see progressive betting as the only sure way of giving yourself the edge. If you stay single units. Then just don't play at all because you will eventually go broke. You have to chase your losses.

All you are doing is waiting 36 rolls on average before you start betting. It just extends the time you are at the table because you will be standing there not betting. It's not going to make it any more or less likely a streak of 5 sevens will come up once you start betting.

wincraps is very user friendly in terms of basic logic like this. write it out on paper and you have it so just a little effort will solve.

granted there are probably more efficient ways to code it but I havent spent time to learn it in that depth.

use chipstacks to set progression values
use other chipstack to count 7s then reset to 0 on win or void
use other chipstack idenity when to bet then reset on win

you can use other chipstacks to count total bets, wins and loss to see your probability.
or even count that at each progression step. you will be sad to see results but will realize how pointless the waiting is. you just bet less so less total action.. ev on the action will be the same

sally will come through for you though, I am sure.. and will probably be less/better code. although the basic if/then code will do what you need .

You can code this yourself in excel.

ColA and ColB are rand(1,6), ColC is SUM(A1,B1). Then write some if/then code in ColD. Then stretch the code down like 10,000 lines or however many lines you want. Oh yeah have another column for "current net win/loss".

Actually I might try this myself right now if I'm not lazy enough to get outta bed.

Perhaps I'll even write up some Java or VBScript code and post the code and results.

Although I would ignore the back to back 7's. Or maybe I'll try it either way. We'll see.


Where's sally sue when you need her?

Quote: ghostcrap

What do you all think of this?

(NOTE/KEY: Place bets are working on the come out roll, {A/B/C/D/E/F/G...} = "betting rounds" or rolls)
BANKROLL REQUIRED = $1,452
Wait for a seven to hit twice in a row. Then bet a single unit ($6) on the Place6 and Place8. If a third seven (loss) then bet the total lost from the beginning +2 units (you'll see why +2 units).

Something occurred to me: most of us like 'exactly' successive 7s [on the pass line], so this is a system for a place better 'only' who has his bets placed and 'on' at all times it seems.

One problem is that place bets don't lose just by successive 7s. It is not a one roll bet, and the intervening rolls are meaningless, like they never happened. That means now you will probably decide to work your system on successive lost bets, not successive 7s rolled - soon enough, I'm thinking. Something tells me that will be a disaster.

I just did the excel spreadsheet thing. I ran it down to about 30 rolls, and "ran" it about 3 or 4 times. On the third one, I saw SIX 7's in a row. A few of the rows were marked FALSE and I was confused, but then realized I didn't input anything for the possibility if more than five 7's are rolled without a 6 or 8.

And yes, the 7's were IN A ROW....not "in a row without a 6 or 8" but back-to-back.

I think I said it earlier in this thread, you always expect those long-shot occurrences to happen way off in the future....and I was expecting the same thing, but sure enough, on the third run or simulation, I got a bunch of 7's in a row.

Quote: RS

I just did the excel spreadsheet thing. I ran it down to about 30 rolls, and "ran" it about 3 or 4 times. On the third one, I saw SIX 7's in a row. A few of the rows were marked FALSE and I was confused, but then realized I didn't input anything for the possibility if more than five 7's are rolled without a 6 or 8.

And yes, the 7's were IN A ROW....not "in a row without a 6 or 8" but back-to-back.

I think I said it earlier in this thread, you always expect those long-shot occurrences to happen way off in the future....and I was expecting the same thing, but sure enough, on the third run or simulation, I got a bunch of 7's in a row.

Isn't there some more interesting things you could be calculating?

Perhaps how to get free White Castle burgers.

From what I looked up is that the %'s of 7's coming back to back are as follows. Anyone please correct me if I'm wrong. Yes, yes. I know the whole 16.667% of a seven hitting (1/6)/(6/36). But the probability of it happening is:

Roll1 16.666666667% 1/6
Roll2 02.77777778% 1/36 6*6
Roll3 00.46296296% 1/216 6*6*6
Roll4 00.07716049% 1/1,296 6*6*6*6
Roll5 00.01286008% 1/7,776 6*6*6*6*6
Roll6 00.00214335% 1/46,656 6*6*6*6*6*6
Rolll7 00.00035722% 1/279,936 6*6*6*6*6*6*6
Roll8 00.00005954% 1/1,679,616% 6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6
Roll9 00.00000992% 1/10,077,696 6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6
Roll10 00.00000165% 1/60,466,176 6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6
And so on and so on... Granted I know, I know that each roll is completely independent from the previous roll.

I played on Carbon Poker online Craps. And I started out with $50 and took it all the way to over $2,450. So I know that waiting on a seven then betting is worth it.

I was thinking tho that to increase the odds of winning would be to play the 5/6/8/9. But then to progressive bet that system would not allow many losses before reaching table max bet. Or to just play the Iron Cross. x2 units on the 5/6/8 and x1 unit on the field. I'm sure many of you know why to play x2 units on the place bets. So that if a place bet wins which means you loose the field. You cover the field loss with one unit then profit on the second unit as a normal unit win. I hope that made sense.

Also, if anyone has any better way to play and actually make money at the game with a method. Please share that goodness. :) I plan to stick around these forums for a while. I'm obsessed with them already.

Quote: AxelWolf

Isn't there some more interesting things you could be calculating?

Perhaps how to get free White Castle burgers.

If you can figure out a way to get me free chipotle, I'll do the math on that.

Not a huge fan of WC.

you know the phrase tl;dr?

Well, I think I came up with one for betting systems.

dr;dw

didn't read; doesn't work

Quote: sc15

dr;dw

didn't read; doesn't work

super! let's all use it!

love the OP's conclusion: it works! been around since the 1700's at least, but our guy is the only one to crack it!