Mans search for method...

Every method seems to have a name.

What is the name of this method?

On the snake eyes or boxcar bet,

Start with 1$ and add a dollar with each loss.

Break even point is around 60. A win with $60 pays $1800 (I guess...60x30)

If you loose up to 60 times, you would have paid $1820.

What are the chances of rolling 60 times without rolling boxcars?

Q1: The "Yal" method (yet another losing)

Q2: 0.1844729169

Quote: slackyhacky

Every method seems to have a name.

What is the name of this method?

I do not know
maybe the dice knows

Quote: slackyhacky

On the snake eyes or boxcar bet,

Start with 1$ and add a dollar with each loss.

do you make another bet on the very next roll right after a loss?
do you talk and listen to the dice first?

Quote: slackyhacky

Break even point is around 60. A win with $60 pays $1800 (I guess...60x30)

sweet
but you had lost 59 bets to that point
60/2 * 59 = 1770
not a sweet win, imo

Quote: slackyhacky

If you loose up to 60 times, you would have paid $1820.

I would have lost
61 * 60/2 = 1830

Quote: slackyhacky

What are the chances of rolling 60 times without rolling boxcars?

(35/36)^60


the 50/50 point is 25 rolls (50.553155%) I rounded up
so
=LOG(1-0.5)/LOG(1-p)
p=1/36
24.61


but if you know exactly when a 12 will roll, that is the best time (imo) to bet it

I like to bet the 3,3 on the hop
after the dice tell me that is what will roll on the very next roll

but not for 60 straight rolls that is
I say it pays to listen
Sally

Actually, right.

at 59 rolls, it is even money (if the 12 rolls at roll 59) -

1+2+3+4...+59 = 1770

59*30= 1770

I don't get what you mean the 50/50 point is at roll 25.

At roll 25, you will have spent $325 dollars, but if the 12 hits on roll 25, you win $750. (profit of 425).

Your max profit happens on roll 29 and roll 30 - both with a profit of $435.

Profit builds up to roll 29 and 30, then starts to drop until it breaks even at roll 59.

So according to MoeHoward, you have an 18.44% chance of losing $1770, and 81.56% chance of winning something.

Quote: slackyhacky

So according to MoeHoward, you have an 18.44% chance of losing $1770, and 81.56% chance of winning something.

This is false. You have an 81.56% chance of one or more boxcars in 60 rolls. This may or may not yield a net win over those same 60 rolls.

Quote: slackyhacky

I don't get what you mean the 50/50 point is at roll 25.

At roll 25, you will have spent $325 dollars, but if the 12 hits on roll 25, you win $750. (profit of 425).

you have about a 50% chance of hitting a 12 by the 25th roll or you have about a 50% chance of not hitting the 12 in the first 25 rolls

I did not apply it to any profit

did you see someone playing this "no name system"?

a nice math exercise for you

what is the average win when you do win from rolls 1 to 60?
this will not be accurate if you know exactly what roll will be the 12

you share yours and I (eye) shares mine

I gets this in Excel
avg bet = 658.4615991
net = -91.45299988
net = bet * he
he = -0.138888889 as expected (5/36)

added: link to this file (sh-12.xlsb) in me blog

Sally

Wouldn't it be better to simply bet $1 on aces or boxcars until it hits...then parlay the bet?

If you do it for 120 rolls, your max loss is $120 of the money you bring to the table. You could lose many $30 bets along the way if the parlay fails, so you'd lose some money there but not out of the money you brought (but it is your money once you win it, never lose sight of that!!).

You could win $900 on one roll anywhere between the 2d and 120th roll.

The $120 is nowhere near the amount you could lose raising it $1 each time...

Quote: RonC

Wouldn't it be better to simply bet $1 on aces or boxcars until it hits...then parlay the bet?

better in what way?
OP has a 0.815527083 prob of an avg net win of $301.8078041

for your suggestion
I gets a prob of 0.08557338 to win at least 1 time in 120 rolls
avg net win of $860.1748995

OP more wins = more fun


but you are correct that your method will lose less per attempt
but requires more attempts to win one time
always a trade-off

here are a few pics

and I would still play out all 120 rolls, maybe you win 2 or more times
as my sim shows
H = a 12 rolled


as my excel sheet is still messy


playing craps = fun
Sally

Quote: MoeHoward

Q1: The "Yal" method (yet another losing)

Q2: 0.1844729169

Why not use your real name Sir ! Moses Harry Horwitz

Quote: mustangsally

you have about a 50% chance of hitting a 12 by the 25th.....

did you see someone playing this "no name system"?

a nice math exercise for you

Sally

Oh, I see.

I did not see someone playing this method. I was just curious.

Nice math exercise? I'm not sure we have the same view of math. ;)

Quote: Buzzard

Why not use your real name Sir ! Moses Harry Horwitz

Out of respect for my brothers, RIP.

I tried a similar method on roulette on the $0.05 machine in 4 Queens.

I played martingale on the black until about 30 rolls went by with no 0, then started placing a nickel on 0 and adding one nickel with each loss. I went to roll 49 (49 nickels on 0) before it hit. I don't remember exactly what that paid, but my checkout ticket was $113 and I think I put in about $60 or $80.

I can still say - playing martingale on that machine, I have never walked away a looser. One time it went 10 red in a row - I had to switch from nickel to 25 cent, but black came up eventually.

Like I said before, I usually get bored and start throwing money on the numbers - I think I lost $20 doing that.

But usually check out a few bucks ahead.

I like adding a nickle to 0 each time - that is exciting - and it is a natural counter to see how many times it goes before you win. One of these days, I'll probably loose $80 or so.

Quote: mustangsally

better in what way?
OP has a 0.815527083 prob of an avg net win of $301.8078041

for your suggestion
I gets a prob of 0.08557338 to win at least 1 time in 120 rolls
avg net win of $860.1748995...

Quote: mustangsally

...more wins = more fun...

Sally,
IIANM** this is your view of it

others have the other view: net money = more fun notwithstanding losing more often than winning

the two views are not mutually exclusive from the "fun" aspect of it one might ---thinking fuzzily perhaps?---say...

IIANM** you have asserted that you are a lifetime winner (BTW i believe you) and that you attribute this largely to the fact that you are winning most of your bets (indisputably true based upon your purported, mostly "don't" -or perhaps it is "lay"- strategy)...

...i attribute that to good luck, nothing more...

...in severe contrast the Tough Craps player's lifetime results are disgustingly quite the opposite...the extent of it is bad luck big-time
for sure but i attribute this overall to mathematical expectation and manifested with an overabundance of play...

this is no argument, just opinions...tom "home runs are often boring" p

**i am guilty of "skimming" these posts a lot of the times---and maybe especially your posts due to their sometimes high spreadsheet (OMG! the glazed-over eyes!) and math content, actual math being a great deal beyond me (much past 2+2=4 or that 6 ways to make a 7, 4 ways to make a 9 can be reduced to 3:2)---so if i am mischaracterizing your welt i do sincerely apologize but also request that you not take me too terribly to task for it!