Thread Rating:
- The HE of a Pass bet at 1.41% vs a Don;t Pass bet at 1.36%,
- The HE of a Pass with full 3X-4X-5X odds at 0.37% vs 2X odds at 0.60%,
- The average length of a hand (roll) being 8.5 rolls,
- The only bet that uses true odds as a payout, further analysis - the average true odds used for Pass Odds bets of 1.5:1,
- The average number of Points made per shooter being 0.68,
- The HE of Place 6 and Place 8 being lowest at 1.52% - is there a significant way to compare different Place bets, i.e. 7:6 times 1.52% vs 9:5 times 6.67% ?
What statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps (ones relating to profit at the table, or fun at the table) ?
Quote: gamglingwomanWhat statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps (ones relating to profit at the table, or fun at the table) ?
First thread and first post! Guys, be nice!
Nice guy failure #1 for me: pointing out that you probably misspelled your user name [or are you coining a new word?] Sorry, couldnt resist asking that!
Quote:What statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps (ones relating to profit at the table, or fun at the table) ?
Well, fun at the table! And recently I think fun ends for me when bet combination HE is not discussed!!! [g] Not much sign of that here, so thank you!
But that last bit, can you clarify what you are asking?
Quote: odiousgambitQuote: gamglingwomanWhat statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps (ones relating to profit at the table, or fun at the table) ?
First thread and first post! Guys, be nice!
Nice guy failure #1 for me: pointing out that you probably misspelled your user name [or are you coining a new word?] Sorry, couldnt resist asking that!
you are right about both things ... very scary to write something for the first time and hit "post"
YES, I made a typo on my screen name (but maybe it will become a new word?), kinda embarassing, but oh well.
Thank you for being my first response.
last bit, what is the most important statisctic AND is it because it has to do with profit or have to do with fun?
Quote: gamglingwomanlast bit, what is the most important statisctic AND is it because it has to do with profit or have to do with fun?
fun, and I agree with Soopoo that math about high variance and low HE combined is the most important. Not much to dwell on though. And I am not an advocate of place betting, but I don't get heartburn if someone does advocate it.
Have we met? PM me, please.
Disable your spell checker :-0Quote: beachbumbabsGamblingwoman
Quote: chickenmanDisable your spell checker :-0
Lol...I debated that; she said she had misspelled it, so I went with what she meant, not what she wrote. Coin flip; grammar won.
Quote: gamglingwomanThe most discussed statistical analysis of Craps is the HE of Pass bets, that and other important ones may be:
- The HE of a Pass bet at 1.41% vs a Don;t Pass bet at 1.36%,
- The HE of a Pass with full 3X-4X-5X odds at 0.37% vs 2X odds at 0.60%,
- The average length of a hand (roll) being 8.5 rolls,
- The only bet that uses true odds as a payout, further analysis - the average true odds used for Pass Odds bets of 1.5:1,
- The average number of Points made per shooter being 0.68,
- The HE of Place 6 and Place 8 being lowest at 1.52% - is there a significant way to compare different Place bets, i.e. 7:6 times 1.52% vs 9:5 times 6.67% ?
What statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps (ones relating to profit at the table, or fun at the table) ?
Hello, GamblingWoman. Welcome.
I guess alot depends not so much on the statistics themselves but upon the personal value that you want to place on them.
Lets just add a totally concocted statistic: Most craps tables are oriented North and South but 8 percent are oriented East to West.
If you have some special geographical desires then and only then would this be at all meaningful to you.
There are several ways to play craps: Go For Broke, Go for long time at table, Go for numerous small losses but Great Wins, Go for wins but avoid losses.
The Grinder who plays at a five dollar table and never makes a Pass Line bet other than 5.00 may really be enjoying himself but the crew are laughing at him.
The guy who presses his bets at least gets his bets up higher and sometimes he is really making some money until he hears the dreaded Seven Out.
So until you really define your objectives no one can tell you what the most relevant statistics are.
Right and Wrong are pretty much the same ... teensy weensy difference in house edge but difference in bankroll requirements too.
With odds and Without Odds are said to be the same but I don't believe it.
So what I mean is: Let us know what your personal preferences are .. even Grinders can have fun and they spend the most time at the table, but a Grinder will NEVER have all the employees lined up to shake hands with the new owner of the casino.
Couple of things, first there is no way the average roll is 8.5 unless you count
multiple come out rolls such as 7 7 3 and then a pass number.
You have asked what statistical analysis is the most important when it comes to craps..... that is easy
yet has no prenetration in the minds of most players..........the ratio of bets you make and hit.
The odds on the pass line dont mean a thing if no one has hit one for an hour, you place the 6 & 8
and the shooter hits 3 9's and a 7, how much did you lose, 1.52% or 100%
the vast majority of craps players dont think it makes any difference to pay attention to the table
or what the dice have been showing. But then again, Mustangsally is the only person on here that
has said she wins at craps.... maybe there is a relationship to not paying attention and losing?????
dicesetter
It IS you! Welcome to the board, and glad you've decided to get involved!
dice,
I stayed out of it when the question came up, but I can say, after 7 craps sessions, I am a lifetime winner.
1. -130 (100 loss, and 30 "tuition"): NCL Epic, May 2013
2. -80 WoV w/ Miplet, Harrah's LV Sept 2013 (don't remember tipping; maybe a little on the pass line)
3. +1200 Harrah's LV w/friend, April 2014 (after tips) 4 point FB x 3
4. -130 Rio LV w/friend, April 2014 (after tips)
5. +440 Cosmo w/Doc, April 2014 (after tips) A/T/S x2
6. -140 Cosmo w/Doc, April 2014 (after tips)
7. +300 California w/SOOPOO, Mr.V, Tanko, A&8, others April 2014 (after tips)
1940-480=1460 to the good. After 1. and 2., I have not shot, just bet along.
Apparently I'm a huge George (ask Doc), so I think you have to count that (~$150) as expenses, though I'm still +EV.
Quote: dicesitterganglingwoman
Couple of things, first there is no way the average roll is 8.5
dicesetter
Okay Gambling Woman here is a cold hard fact: You are right! There is a website chock full of facts about craps. The site is Wizard of Odds, there is a link at the bottom of this page. Digging to the bottom of the craps pages, we find the following quote; "The mean number of rolls per shooter is 8.525510. "
Lesson learned, some people don't know jack!
Next to that, of course, is HE. Avoid high HE bets and play low HE bets. Of course, the low HE bets (PL, Place 6/8, etc.) pay less than the high HE bets. It's all in how quickly/slowly you want to win or lose. Most of the math I see on this board goes out the window when I'm standing at a live table. Maybe that's my fault. I don't know.
Nevertheless, welcome to the board.
Quote: beachbumbabsGamblingwoman,
Have we met? PM me, please.
Yes, last year, "Hi". Jim said he did.
Quote: chickenmanMaybe she wanted to type "ganglingwoman" j/k
a typo, but it will show who uses spell checker lol
Quote: FleaStiffHello, GamblingWoman. Welcome.
So what I mean is: Let us know what your personal preferences are ..
thanks for the welcoming
playing for fun, I don't worry too much about betting the "best" bets, just the fun ones. My husband taught me, and he was telling me what to bet at the start, but now he lets me just have fun. I win about much money as he does anyway.
I think the most important statistic is the fact that Craps has fun people around the table most of the time.
Quote: beachbumbabsGamblingwoman,
It IS you! Welcome to the board, and glad you've decided to get involved!
1940-480=1460 to the good. After 1. and 2., I have not shot, just bet along.
Apparently I'm a huge George (ask Doc), so I think you have to count that (~$150) as expenses, though I'm still +EV.
Yes, HELLO
I'm not an expert, but i think i am ahead so far too. I may have even played more than you at this point (getting addicted) - lol
i LOVE to be the shooter
Quote: Sonny44Nevertheless, welcome to the board.
thank you
The average roll after a point is set is not 8.5 rolls, if that were true we would all be rich.
Be that as it may, if you want to beleive that, go for it.
Donald Catlin
give it another try; the 8.5 figure is correct. Here is a hint. Calculate the expected number of rolls for a Pass Line decision and the number of Pass Line decisions per seven-out. The total is 8.5 give or take.
But as i indicated 8.5 also includes expected come out roll or rolls.
6 or slightly less is the point of mean or average after the point has been set.
This is no big deal, except if ganglingwoman is new to craps she should be told what is
reasonable for a roll not expect what is not. An SRR of 8.5 would be god like.
dicesetter
Hi
I have no opinion to your question
"What statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps?"
I see playing Craps = fun
winning money while playing Craps = more fun
This is not totally correctQuote: gamglingwomanThe most discussed statistical analysis of Craps is the HE of Pass bets, that and other important ones may be:
my opinion,
The expected value (EV) is also the most discussed statistical analysis of Craps for Pass bets and Come bets
But EV by most, in my opinion,
is treated as a word to never to be spoken or written about unless you are a craps expert
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/19296-craps-expert-list/#post388327
neither of these values are correct in my opinionQuote: gamglingwoman
- The HE of a Pass bet at 1.41% vs a Don;t Pass bet at 1.36%,
why do you think they are correct?
and if they are to be correct, what exactly do the values mean?
this is absolutely wrong and misleadingQuote: gamglingwomanThe HE of a Pass with full 3X-4X-5X odds at 0.37% vs 2X odds at 0.60%,
I hope you do not endorse this hogwash
the house edge of a pass/come never changes.
and what is that new average combined wager?
give me a break Marty!)
is this your opinion or are you stating some one else's opinion?Quote: gamglingwomanThe average length of a hand (roll) being 8.5 rolls,
I do appreciate reading about others opinions
this is wrong too. There are other Craps bets that use true oddsQuote: gamglingwomanThe only bet that uses true odds as a payout, further analysis - the average true odds used for Pass Odds bets of 1.5:1,
Ahigh, me and he are not craps experts btw, knows of many others
thank you for this opinionQuote: gamglingwomanThe average number of Points made per shooter being 0.68,
Do you actually believe this?
what really do you think is the average # of points hit per shooter?
well, a list of opinions
which one(s) do you agree with and why?
how about those you do not agree with and why?
DS says 8.5 rolls is wrong in a later post
another opinion that is maybe more true than others
This forum is filled with opinions (land minds)
have fun with them all and thank you for sharing
I do
(remember when you said this)
Sally
rightQuote: dicesitterWrong
rightQuote: dicesitterThe average roll after a point is set is not 8.5 rolls,
why the observation?
you do not like come out rolls?
Ok if yes
I love come out rolls
(I have won this 6 way bet the last 3 times in a row. What a streak! I will quit while ahead)
The average # of point rolls (non come out rolls) per shooter could be interesting in my opinion
but the average and the median are not the same
how to continue dicesitter?
what do you want to see other than 6
Quote: dicesitter"An SRR of 8.5 would be god like."
My God is not allowed to shoot the dice because she has a SRR of infinity
(claims to have never ever rolled a 7)
dicesitter
tell OP about your DI skills and how you roll more 6s and 8s than expectation to have an advantage over the casino.
I think you have a thread about it too
is this it?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13034-nice-profit-from-short-rolls/
Thank you dicesitter for your many unbiased opinions
you sweet talkin' guy
Sally
I love come out rolls, i make good money on them....but 8.5 is a number that includes those.
You may have a roll of 8 with a 7,2,7,12,7,3 and then set a point of 8 and then hit a 7 .. so then
what is your SRR 8 or 1???
and you lost money on that roll if you were a pass line player, and alot of money if you are
a pass line player and then go across.
If one puts much time into the practice of craps, it is important to know what your SRR is
in terms of how many rolls you average between the setting of a pass number and a 7 out.
Extending your SRR is not the golden grail of craps, but i would damn sure rather have a 8.5
SRR than 6.
If a person could extend the average after point roll from 6-8.5, that means on average
you have the ability to get paid on 2.5 more rolls each hand and that figures out to a 30%
advantage for the 8.5 guy. So you show me the player that averages 8.5 rolls after the point
and i would gladly say that guy ( or gal in your case) is the expert.
In terms of putting my data on here, i learned my lesson from that. That day has come... and
gone
Dicesetter
Quote: beachbumbabsGamblingwoman,
It IS you! Welcome to the board, and glad you've decided to get involved!
dice,
I stayed out of it when the question came up, but I can say, after 7 craps sessions, I am a lifetime winner.
1. -130 (100 loss, and 30 "tuition"): NCL Epic, May 2013
2. -80 WoV w/ Miplet, Harrah's LV Sept 2013 (don't remember tipping; maybe a little on the pass line)
3. +1200 Harrah's LV w/friend, April 2014 (after tips) 4 point FB x 3
4. -130 Rio LV w/friend, April 2014 (after tips)
5. +440 Cosmo w/Doc, April 2014 (after tips) A/T/S x2
6. -140 Cosmo w/Doc, April 2014 (after tips)
7. +300 California w/SOOPOO, Mr.V, Tanko, A&8, others April 2014 (after tips)
1940-480=1460 to the good. After 1. and 2., I have not shot, just bet along.
Apparently I'm a huge George (ask Doc), so I think you have to count that (~$150) as expenses, though I'm still +EV.
Sorry BBB, you're EV is still negative. I think you meant to say your results are still positive.
I can not show you that personQuote: dicesitterIf a person could extend the average after point roll from 6-8.5,
that means on average
you have the ability to get paid on 2.5 more rolls each hand
and that figures out to a 30%
advantage for the 8.5 guy.
So you show me the player that averages 8.5 rolls after the point
and i would gladly say that guy ( or gal in your case) is the expert.
and in my opinion, that person does not exist playing casino craps with casino dice following casino rules.
but it is HOT you use so many numbers in one paragraph
and spell check is silent too
Wow!
Thank you
Sally
But be very happy!Quote: MidwestAPSorry BBB, you're EV is still negative. I think you meant to say your results are still positive.
1) Your Variance is always positive
unless = 0
and
2) your Variance will never be negative
yes, you can have it both ways
Quote: beachbumbabs1940-480=1460 to the good.
does MaxSwelle know about this?
gIrL pѾwEr come on hard 12
Cus
Axel
says so
I was going to ask the sameQuote: odiousgambitdoes MaxSwelle know about this?
I think sally to. Much in common, do i see a couples craps night out?Quote: gamglingwomanMy husband taught me, and he was telling me what to bet at the start,
Quote: beachbumbabsGamblingwoman,
Have we met? PM me, please.
Impressive, Babs. How did you know it was her from just that one post? Do you work for the NSA?
i had to calm down, and have, after reading that paragraphQuote: dicesitterIf a person could extend the average after point roll from 6-8.5, that means on average
you have the ability to get paid on 2.5 more rolls each hand and that figures out to a 30%
advantage for the 8.5 guy. So you show me the player that averages 8.5 rolls after the point
and i would gladly say that guy ( or gal in your case) is the expert.
breath-taking
I even framed it for you
(sorry it did not fit very well
it is the thought that counts)
I even went to the bank to cash a check and never made it there.
I will try again after lunch (I am always eating)
what I wants to point out --> is those 6 point rolls on average contains the 7out roll
so you really get 5 rolls
and if you do not like the horn numbers, as most place bettors do,
we can subtract 1 from 5 and get 4 rolls.
but 0.68 rolls are point winners and not a place bet winner so it can be as low as 3.32 rolls per shooter.
But there is good (great) news in all the doom and gloom
should be easy to increase 3.32
I just Lay against a point and collect my winnings
so much fun
so is sex with the one you love
Sally
Quote: chickenmanMaybe she wanted to type "ganglingwoman" j/k
Or maybe she's a brain surgeon who meant to type "gangliawoman"?