How Many DC Bets?
July 3rd, 2014 at 1:11:55 PM
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I've gradually started shifting towards the don't side of the table. As far as I understand, the lowest house edge possible is achieved with Don't Pass bets backed with full odds, as well as Don't Come bets backed with full odds.
This of course doesn't take into account 'dice influencing', 'hot tables', 'cold tables', and whatever other phantom forces may or may not be affecting the outcome.
My question is, how many DC bets is best? Is it best to keep throwing out DC after DC (backed with odds) until as many numbers are filled as possible, replacing DC bets for any that lose? Or is there a maximum amount of DC bets that one should have out at any given time?
This of course doesn't take into account 'dice influencing', 'hot tables', 'cold tables', and whatever other phantom forces may or may not be affecting the outcome.
My question is, how many DC bets is best? Is it best to keep throwing out DC after DC (backed with odds) until as many numbers are filled as possible, replacing DC bets for any that lose? Or is there a maximum amount of DC bets that one should have out at any given time?
July 3rd, 2014 at 2:40:13 PM
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Every DC bet carries a house edge with it. So optimally, 0 DCs is best. A DC on every roll is not optimal, but may be more entertaining. But it's all up to you.
July 3rd, 2014 at 3:08:56 PM
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There was one session where I won $2500 with a $300 buy in betting the don't come placing a $15 don't come every single roll for 2 hours. It was amazing and thought I had come up with a way to beat the casino. They'd roll 4 or 5 numbers and then 7 out. If they'd make the point they'd roll a 7 during the come out roll and I'd get paid on like 4 or 5 bets. It was amazing. This was went on for about 2 hours until I decided to call it a nigh. tThis success was short lived as I gave back $1,500 of it trying this strategy again over 4 or 5 sessions and I got killed and they were rolling tons of repeaters.
July 3rd, 2014 at 4:20:18 PM
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The DP+odds and DC+odds will have the same HE for each bet. Every bet you place increases your exposure.
Mathematically, the best play (aside from not playing at all) is a single DP or DC + max odds.
It's also not a particularly exciting way to play for most people.
Mathematically, the best play (aside from not playing at all) is a single DP or DC + max odds.
It's also not a particularly exciting way to play for most people.
July 3rd, 2014 at 4:34:28 PM
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I had been thinking that in no way is it a bad thing [edit], if you could get lucky enough to do so, to have built up a bunch of DC bets along with your DP bet, since the odds are now in your favor.
Since then, I have realized you have to limit your action even though the situation looks in your favor. Of course it hits home hard in those rare cases where a big buildup gets knocked off one by one; but the factor is in effect anyway. You really have to limit your action, most of us, instead of getting delusional about "odds on my side"
Worked out really good for me to limit my action on the DC last time I went for it, as I blogged
Since then, I have realized you have to limit your action even though the situation looks in your favor. Of course it hits home hard in those rare cases where a big buildup gets knocked off one by one; but the factor is in effect anyway. You really have to limit your action, most of us, instead of getting delusional about "odds on my side"
Worked out really good for me to limit my action on the DC last time I went for it, as I blogged
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 3rd, 2014 at 6:12:08 PM
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It all depends on the table limit and your bankroll. If I had a substantial bankroll I would make constant DC with odds until the 7. Usually I don't have a substantial bankroll so I usually stick to 2/3 DCs with odds. You just have to remember when you play the DC (or Come) you're not going to have the same amount of bets every time. Also, there is no number like 7 when you play the Come that clears all your bets. These factors are the reasons why I would make constant DC bets if I had the proper bankroll.
July 3rd, 2014 at 10:55:46 PM
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There is one major difference between the pass/come and the dont-pass/dont-come. That major difference is the change in EV after a box number is rolled.
Many people don't understand that a $300 DC bet after it travels to the four now has a 133.33% EV and/or is now worth $400 on average. It still LOOKS like $300, but it's not. Since a lot of folks don't understand how having a better chance to win increases the EV for a bet (and generally also don't understand how having a LOWER chance to win DECREASES the EV of the bet) they often get snagged up understanding the value of the chips on the felt.
For "right-side" players, this can mean they visually see a bunch of chips on the felt and are more confident about how much they will win than they should be.
And for "dark-side" players, this might mean that they are surprised when they win a bunch of bets at once that the feel like all of a sudden they won more money than they really in fact won (much of the winnings were in EV on the initial roll).
Just something to think about anyway.
Many people don't understand that a $300 DC bet after it travels to the four now has a 133.33% EV and/or is now worth $400 on average. It still LOOKS like $300, but it's not. Since a lot of folks don't understand how having a better chance to win increases the EV for a bet (and generally also don't understand how having a LOWER chance to win DECREASES the EV of the bet) they often get snagged up understanding the value of the chips on the felt.
For "right-side" players, this can mean they visually see a bunch of chips on the felt and are more confident about how much they will win than they should be.
And for "dark-side" players, this might mean that they are surprised when they win a bunch of bets at once that the feel like all of a sudden they won more money than they really in fact won (much of the winnings were in EV on the initial roll).
Just something to think about anyway.
aahigh.com
July 3rd, 2014 at 11:13:59 PM
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Quote: AhighMany people don't understand that a $300 DC bet after it travels to the four now has a 133.33% EV and/or is now worth $400 on average
I guess I'm one of the people who doesn't understand. How is it not $300 since you're paid even money on a DC bet if you win? Are you saying it's worth more based on probability but the casino gets away with it because they pay even money?
July 3rd, 2014 at 11:34:42 PM
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Quote: befamous7I guess I'm one of the people who doesn't understand. How is it not $300 since you're paid even money on a DC bet if you win? Are you saying it's worth more based on probability but the casino gets away with it because they pay even money?
The true odds for $300 against the 4 means it'd pay $150. But it gets paid even money ($300).
July 3rd, 2014 at 11:54:07 PM
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Quote: RSThe true odds for $300 against the 4 means it'd pay $150. But it gets paid even money ($300).
I'm confused how he says that the $300 is worth $400. I know it's the EV x 300 but it makes little sense to me. I guess I am one of those people who can only view the chips value on the felt.
July 4th, 2014 at 12:58:42 AM
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Quote: befamous7I'm confused how he says that the $300 is worth $400. I know it's the EV x 300 but it makes little sense to me. I guess I am one of those people who can only view the chips value on the felt.
It hinges on understanding the concept of "Expected Value."
If you win even money 2 out of 3 times, that double your bet coming back to you 2/3rds of the time.
So ( $300 * 2 ) * ( 2 / 3 ) = $600 * ( 2 / 3 ) = $1200 / 3 = $400
So the expected return value, on average, is $400 / $300 which is 133.33% .. in other words the VALUE of that $300 is actually $400 on average. If you get used to seeing 33.33% more in your mind of the value of the chips when you're behind the four or the ten, it will help you realize that you already won 33.33% of what you wagered on the initial roll.
It's my opinion that this is the single most common "trick" that makes people think they are doing better than they are really doing when they play the pass line and the come bets. They think that when they can still see their chips on there on the felt, the value of those chips being there is higher. But it's not.
Similarly, when you see your chips BEHIND the number, the value is higher than the amount of chips that you see.
aahigh.com
July 4th, 2014 at 8:05:36 AM
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Quote: AhighIt hinges on understanding the concept of "Expected Value."
If you win even money 2 out of 3 times, that double your bet coming back to you 2/3rds of the time.
So ( $300 * 2 ) * ( 2 / 3 ) = $600 * ( 2 / 3 ) = $1200 / 3 = $400
So the expected return value, on average, is $400 / $300 which is 133.33% .. in other words the VALUE of that $300 is actually $400 on average. If you get used to seeing 33.33% more in your mind of the value of the chips when you're behind the four or the ten, it will help you realize that you already won 33.33% of what you wagered on the initial roll.
It's my opinion that this is the single most common "trick" that makes people think they are doing better than they are really doing when they play the pass line and the come bets. They think that when they can still see their chips on there on the felt, the value of those chips being there is higher. But it's not.
Similarly, when you see your chips BEHIND the number, the value is higher than the amount of chips that you see.
It still boils down to what you see after each roll of the dice, if your chips were swept away with all the other losing bets, your chip value is now nothing!
You have to win any bet to really have any value, I always look at the 4's and 10's as the best bets on the table because of ROI, but you need to see players rolling them before you bet on them, when playing the dark side I look at them as the wost bets on the table.
I don't want to risk $100 to win $50, I see way to many players now days getting killed laying the 4's and 10's when everybody is rolling them on the table!
Here is some roll data for all of you math guys that happened the other night.
273 rolls
2's = 11
3's = 18
4's = 16
5's = 31
6's = 37
8's = 34
9's = 35
10's = 38
11's = 12
12's = 09
7's
10 CO
37 SO
Now it all depends when you stepped up to the table if you came out a winner or a loser, there were times if you were laying the 10's you would have got killed. Funny to see that there were more 10's then there were 6's or 8's!
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...!
You do good brada ..!
superrick
Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction
http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php
...
July 4th, 2014 at 11:23:29 AM
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People don't have any problem at all understanding the concept of "it's due" or "they're going to keep on coming."
That much is something I don't see people having a problem with. That's what makes the game fun of course. Guessing, finding out you were right, and using that as evidence for what to do next time.
I do it myself: thinking it was because of how awesome I am that I won.
That much is something I don't see people having a problem with. That's what makes the game fun of course. Guessing, finding out you were right, and using that as evidence for what to do next time.
I do it myself: thinking it was because of how awesome I am that I won.
aahigh.com
July 5th, 2014 at 1:11:02 PM
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"My question is, how many DC bets is best?"
The HE remains the same, regardless of how many bets are out there. What changes is the total amount of money and, as a result, the variance of your sessions. As the OP mentioned, having continuous DC bets will result in some monster wins, but also some monster losses. As such, I prefer to stay with 1 DC per shooter. Grinding out a small win is fine, as the risk of ruin is minimized.
Darth
The HE remains the same, regardless of how many bets are out there. What changes is the total amount of money and, as a result, the variance of your sessions. As the OP mentioned, having continuous DC bets will result in some monster wins, but also some monster losses. As such, I prefer to stay with 1 DC per shooter. Grinding out a small win is fine, as the risk of ruin is minimized.
Darth
7-out, line away, pay the don't.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
July 7th, 2014 at 8:05:52 PM
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There's a quiet black fellow that I see at the casino almost every day. He bets $10 on the don't pass and $10 on the don't come. If they roll a 6 or 8 he says "no action". The 4, 5, 9, and 10 always travels. He lays $500 against a 4 & 10 and $300 against a 5 and 9. I've seen him do well a few times but the vast majority of the time he gets killed. Tonight he must have lost $1,200 to $1,500 on one shooter that hit about 4 or 5 9's and $1,500 on 3 10's before severing out. He ran out of chips and had to go get money several times today.
July 8th, 2014 at 8:46:24 AM
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Quote: guitarmandpIf they roll a 6 or 8 he says "no action".
Not taking action on a 6 or an 8 has the same negative consequence as betting the big six instead of taking odds on a six point.
Imagine that someone has $25 pass line and sets the point at six, and then puts $125 on the big six.
That's the same price as someone who says "no action" on a $125 DC bet.
The only difference is that you can move your big six bet to odds on the next roll. Once you say "no action" and the dice roll, you've lost that edge forever.
When I hear people say "no action" on anything more than $5, I think (to myself) "no brain." Even a $5 DC deserves a stroke to win $2 from $1 risked 5 in 11 times.
aahigh.com
July 9th, 2014 at 2:53:36 PM
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I agree, I would never ever say "no action" and walk away from a bet where I have the edge. I think he doesn't care about $10 and he's just waiting for a 4, 5, 9, or 10 to hit so he can lay odds.
July 9th, 2014 at 5:53:33 PM
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Quote: etr102My question is, how many DC bets is best? Is it best to keep throwing out DC after DC (backed with odds) until as many numbers are filled as possible, replacing DC bets for any that lose? Or is there a maximum amount of DC bets that one should have out at any given time?
With DC bets you are betting more than you are winning (a winning bet pays less than the amount of the bet), so you want to avoid losing too many of them, because it takes more than one win to make up for a loss. I usually only bet one DC bet at a time. The reason for this is that there is a 6/36 chance for a 7 to roll on any given roll. By having more than one bet out you would have a greater than 6/36 chance of rolling one or the other of your DC numbers. The only exception would be if you had DC bets on both the 4 and the 10, in which case you would have exactly a 6/36 chance that one or the other would roll (3/36 chance for each number).
July 9th, 2014 at 7:28:17 PM
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Quote: RSEvery DC bet carries a house edge with it. So optimally, 0 DCs is best. A DC on every roll is not optimal, but may be more entertaining. But it's all up to you.
Agreed +1. None is the correct answer, you risk MORE $$ with a negative expectation.
Personally, when playing the Dark Side, just one for me. Full Odds like my DP/odds.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
July 9th, 2014 at 7:36:54 PM
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Quote: skrbornevryminWith DC bets you are betting more than you are winning
DC bets pay even money. Your thinking of the bet known as "lay odds" which requires a DC bet to be made first, or otherwise you mean "when playing behind" or something more general.
I sometimes bet DC bets just hoping for aces without any plans to ever lay odds.
aahigh.com
July 10th, 2014 at 2:42:53 PM
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When I do don't pass with odds I like to do 5x odds except on the 4 & 10. I've been on tables where the shooters are making the 4 & 10 and not the 6 & 8. It's very hard to come back if you are betting heavy odds on the 4 & 10, and the shooter makes the point
