eclectic
eclectic
Joined: Jan 3, 2016
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 105
February 26th, 2016 at 6:52:45 AM permalink
Thought the following link was was germane and relevant to this thread. Maybe old news for members here; but I found it to be very informative. Also references the Wizard. Please google: "what's the way it is + debuking a craps system"
rushdl
rushdl
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 176
February 26th, 2016 at 7:15:18 AM permalink
What this guy has done, and what I have done, cannot be challenged by a computer. It cannot be simulated nor can it be tested by an AI. We will have to go 100 throws multiplied by 100 Million to get anything, or 1000 x 10 Million would be more acceptable by the challengers.
I am preparing a list of how messed up it is to think a computer can simulate anything short term or mid term.

All I have so far is this:

1-There is only one shooter on a computer. Immediately have to say no thank you. Premis totally denied. I need a craps table not a computer.
........a-Possibility of mitigation?
.............i-Reboot after every 7 out? Come back as new user?
.............ii-Run 12 separate RNGs, switching after 7 out?
.............iii-Run 5 different technology RNGs simultaneously and switch after 7 out?

2-No such thing as true random generator (RNG) on a computer. Many big crimes committed by knowing the programmed RNG. Empirical evidence.
........a-Mitigation?
............i-None known to science, only different types of RNG programming

3-Can't read the table (Table rich or lean, where is the probability curve right now)

4-Can't read the shooter (Shooter rich or lean)

5-Can't read the weather outside (My personal attitude rich or lean)

6-Can't know the difference between holiday and regular day of the year (casino rich or lean)

7-Can't know the difference between Tuesday afternoon or Saturday night (casino rich or lean)

8-Can't "Not" bet against a good shooter again, because there is only one shooter (Shooter rich or lean)

9-Incapable of modified learning (System lo-risk or hi-risk version?)

10-Can't adjust for personal attitude

I bet you could get 25 more good ones without trying.
Hozdaddy
Hozdaddy
Joined: Dec 26, 2017
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 11
December 26th, 2017 at 12:48:03 PM permalink
Negative Expectation/Long run is true in theory but not practical in application. Casinos have to have some form of compensation for running the games, that is where the negative expectation comes in. Casinos are the long run because they book every bet on every roll 24/7. Casinos could offer bets at true odds and players would still lose because they are under capitalized and lack discipline. Look at the revenues from gaming, do they correlate to the negative expectation? No, they far exceed it. Players play in the short run and to most, a win is never enough and eventually ends up going back to the other side of the table with their buy in. I see it all the time. Just my opinion and I may be wrong.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 85
  • Posts: 10883
December 26th, 2017 at 2:35:50 PM permalink
Quote: Hozdaddy

Negative Expectation/Long run is true in theory but not practical in application. Casinos have to have some form of compensation for running the games, that is where the negative expectation comes in. Casinos are the long run because they book every bet on every roll 24/7. Casinos could offer bets at true odds and players would still lose because they are under capitalized and lack discipline. Look at the revenues from gaming, do they correlate to the negative expectation? No, they far exceed it. Players play in the short run and to most, a win is never enough and eventually ends up going back to the other side of the table with their buy in. I see it all the time. Just my opinion and I may be wrong.



I think that's a pretty astute comment. I would add that the -ev is continually working, no matter how many times the player risks their bankroll, so it's a continuous, compounding amount, not just a single run-through of the number. I feel lucky if I've managed to walk out even , with a few hours entertainment.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1068
  • Posts: 18019
Thanks for this post from:
AxelWolfMaxPen
December 26th, 2017 at 4:15:39 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I think that's a pretty astute comment.



It wasn't astute at all. Rather, it was flat out wrong. That the casino has the bigger bankroll has nothing to do with it. The reason the casino usually wins is mostly the house edge and to a lesser degree player errors in games of strategy.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 85
  • Posts: 10883
December 26th, 2017 at 5:45:54 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It wasn't astute at all. Rather, it was flat out wrong. That the casino has the bigger bankroll has nothing to do with it. The reason the casino usually wins is mostly the house edge and to a lesser degree player errors in games of strategy.



Ok. I read it to say what you just said, the -ev exists on virtually every bet and is always working. Maybe I read too fast.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
RogerKint
RogerKint
Joined: Dec 5, 2011
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 1617
December 26th, 2017 at 5:59:23 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Ok. I read it to say what you just said, the -ev exists on virtually every bet and is always working. Maybe I read too fast.



I'm with you Babs (finally, right? ;)) I think the poster is making the case that, while -EV exists, the casino doesn't NEED that mathematical edge on every wager to profit. The poster seems to be of the opinion that a casino can survive on player mistakes/bad BR management alone.
"You can tell it's real cause it looks so fake" - Musk
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 250
  • Posts: 12500
December 26th, 2017 at 6:48:05 PM permalink
Quote: Hozdaddy

Negative Expectation/Long run is true in theory but not practical in application..

Sorry pal, but it applies to each and every roll and that makes it very practical indeed, Yes the casino goes 24/7. Yes they have a big bankroll. So what? No dice crew will ever say 'let him use crooked dice' its only short term.

The casino has an edge, the players have hope.
Hozdaddy
Hozdaddy
Joined: Dec 26, 2017
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 11
December 26th, 2017 at 7:43:21 PM permalink
What do you think the outcome for the player would be if the casino charged an admission fee of $25 and offered the games at true odds instead of a negative ev game? Do you think an individual player would win more "sessions" at the tables in the long run?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 14116
December 26th, 2017 at 8:08:58 PM permalink
Are you including the $25? If so, it would depend on how long they stayed and how much they bet. That would be a great deal for some players. It would still be -EV.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

  • Jump to: