Strong Proven bet for the Dark Side Players... One of the BEST I've Seen.
Quote: AhighHey listen. I know everyone means well here and all. The fact that long term trends don't mean much to most folks is what makes gambling efficacious.
Harrah's hasn't figured this out yet, but when almost everyone loses, there are no stories like those we're reading here that go something like, "but sometimes you win."
The logical extension is, "when you do get lucky enough to win, that's awesome."
When the payback percentage on an IGT slot, such as those at the world famous "Caesar's Palace" for example, are set to 86% payback, you don't have these discussions (as often) about how sometimes you win and/or how that playing the game makes sense for some of the people who are lucky enough to win.
There is not a math person anywhere that would tell you that nobody is lucky enough to be a lifetime winner in craps.
There are MANY lifetime winners at craps.
And if there's were not, in my opinion, the game would suck.
Most games that have lifetime winners are the result of people who are only in Vegas for a few days of their life or otherwise the biggest payout is so huge, they get hold of reason when faced with "do I spend it or gamble that money too?"
There's a guy that I see a lot that's seven stars that has to be a lifetime winner. I don't have the money to bet like him but he buys in for $5,000 and I almost never see him leave with less than $10,000. In fact I'm a don't play and everytime he shoots he makes like 3 passes and rolls a ton of numbers, which makes me scared to play when he shoots. I remember one time he came up to me and showed me 5 orange chips and two black and said to me "Despite how shitty the table that I just was at was, I made $200".
I believe that there are people that are just plain lucky and win more often than they loose at Craps. Granted maybe there's not a lot of them but there are people that are lucky. People win the lottery.
Quote: guitarmandpThere's a guy that I see a lot that's seven stars that has to be a lifetime winner. I don't have the money to bet like him but he buys in for $5,000 and I almost never see him leave with less than $10,000. In fact I'm a don't play and everytime he shoots he makes like 3 passes and rolls a ton of numbers, which makes me scared to play when he shoots. I remember one time he came up to me and showed me 5 orange chips and two black and said to me "Despite how shitty the table that I just was at was, I made $200".
I believe that there are people that are just plain lucky and win more often than they loose at Craps. Granted maybe there's not a lot of them but there are people that are lucky. People win the lottery.
There are also players that study the game and everything about it, they know that it's a negative game that there are holes in the math of the game that will allow them to win in the short time that they are at the table. Most craps players just try to get lucky and would never think about trying to understand the game, they will never pick-up a book that may or may not give them some good insight into the game.
There is no doubt that you should understand the math of the game, but you don't have to play it like all the books tell you to do, because most of what your going to find in a book is regurgitated stuff that the author did nothing more then to pass on what they read in a different book!
Quote: BuzzardJust once I would like to see a dice thread that says this is how I lose my money. Try it, you might like it.
Well buzz, you are welcome to read my blog entries. There are plenty of loss stories in there. But there are a few good wins in there too.
My favorite bet at this point is the extreme pressure on the Buy 4 and 10. Buy for $100, press to $300, press to $600, press to $1000.
After the second hit, you are up $250, after the third hit you are up $1000. And if the miracle 4th number comes, $2000 and down.
Quote: RaleighCrapsWell buzz, you are welcome to read my blog entries. There are plenty of loss stories in there. But there are a few good wins in there too.
Quote:My favorite bet at this point is the extreme pressure on the Buy 4 and 10. Buy for $100, press to $300, press to $600, press to $1000.
After the second hit, you are up $250, after the third hit you are up $1000. And if the miracle 4th number comes, $2000 and down.
A few questions for that buy 4 and 10 RC
What is your session buy in and overall playing bankroll for that scale of bet?
I like this one:
Buy 4 and 10 for $25. Myngoalmis 4 hits.
First hit go to $75
2nd hit go to $225
3rd hit go to $675
4th hit collect $2025 and restart a $100 and go for 4 hits.
Now At $100 fifth hit go to $300
6th hit go to $900
7th hit go to $2700
8th hit collect $8000
Now that's a payday all from a $50 risk.
Other option is collect another $2700 o
After 7th hit and do a new series and start at $200-300http://www.trendsettercraps.com
That bet came about from playing on tables where the 4 or 10 is being rolled a fair amount, or when a certain person seems to be rolling a large number of 4s or 10s. I was looking for a way to get to $1000 quickly, as many times I will see a 4 or 10 rolled 3 times, and some 4 times, but that 5th time is quite rare. I don't mind having 1k on the table that has already been 'paid for' (yes, I know it is my money).
My typical buy in is $1000, and very, very, rarely will I reload. So Buying the 4 for $100 is a major investment, but if I see a shooter (like superrick, or my buddy Tom) who has already demonstrated he tends to throw 4s, I may take the chance. It usually also happens when I have been playing for a bit, and am already up a few hundred.
(When I played with superrick last time, he had told me before going in, he was throwing a lot of 4s lately. And sure enough, his first few shoots had quite a few 4s. So I was up quite a bit, and decided to make a run at his 4s. It is in my blog, but bottom line was he set the 4 as the point, so that messed me up a bit. He rolled the 4, four times, like I needed, but I was not playing the come out roll, so it ended one roll short for me. I think I had the 4 at $900 that time.)
I have been to the $600 level 4 times, but I have never gotten paid on that amount. I did have a $500 10 bet get paid, which I pressed to $1000, and that got paid. Unfortunately, I opted to leave it up for one more hit, and it got wiped a couple of throws later. But getting 4 purples on a single 10 was oh so sweet and such a huge rush.
My regular Buy 4/10 press looks a bit like yours.
If the 4/10 is coming up fairly often, then I will start this press sequence (vig up front)
$25 initial bet....................... - cost is $26
1st hit - Press to $75............. - cost is $29
2nd hit - Press to $150.......... - ahead $39
3rd hit - Press to $300........... - ahead $174
4th hit - Press to $900........... - ahead $129 - this press if the 4 hits came quickly
4th hit - Press to $600........... - ahead $444
5th hit - Press to $1000......... - ahead $1194
The biggest initial bet I have made on the Buy 4/10 was $200, which got pressed to $500 on the first hit. Unfortunately, I did not get paid on that second bet. (IIRC, I think I may have bet $500 on the 10 when that same shooter came up, after that time I got paid the $2000. I'm pretty certain I lost that bet with no pay. Too lazy to check my blog though)
WinCraps has led me to see that the long term slow play is rarely going to be profitable, so I have modified my play to go for the bigger hits. And large Buys on the 4/10, when they are being rolled, is a quick way to get a big hit.
Quote: RaleighCrapsHi VDC,
That bet came about from playing on tables where the 4 or 10 is being rolled a fair amount, or when a certain person seems to be rolling a large number of 4s or 10s. I was looking for a way to get to $1000 quickly, as many times I will see a 4 or 10 rolled 3 times, and some 4 times, but that 5th time is quite rare. I don't mind having 1k on the table that has already been 'paid for' (yes, I know it is my money).
.
VDC as you already know I don't go to the tables with to many guys that come into Vegas, but I've been to the tables with RaleighCraps, because he has a very good understanding of the game, he is not a so-called DI, but he has a very nice rhythm of type roll that works! During our initial contact, he explained to me he was a rhythm roller, and I told him it didn't matter to me, if I didn't like what I saw I just wouldn't bet, and that I make money on the so-called random roller.
I explain to him that his best bet would be on the 4's and 10's when I'm shooting, if I was rolling them! There was no guarantee that I would be making them while we were on the table together! On one occasion I told him to bet the field and just press up his bets on a random roller that I've seen shooting all around town many times that will roll field numbers after field numbers.
It paid off for him , because of all the field numbers he was rolling! You don't have to be a DI to win money on the craps tables, but you do need to understand how to bet the game when a roll is happening, and RaleighCraps know when to press up bets, and when to lay off other shooters that are not rolling anything that will make him money!
Yep 4-'s and 10's are SR, Harley's and my favorite signature numbers. Haha. I got good at hitting them too. Had eight 8 and eleven hand 4's a few times but I took payouts and of course it was the fricken point a few times so I missed payouts there. So I decided since I missed those payouts to reduce and lock in a win only to go and continue banging them out.
I don't play this on Randy's though. Just a few people besides myself that I can trust this risk on. I'm willing to take my losses knowing at some point ill get my wins clumped up.
Most times ill start initially 4-10 $10 ea working on comeout. Hit that for point then jump straight to $25. Next $75 next $225 next $675 next collect $2025 than restart.
Here is how I play the come out # 2,3,4,5 etc.... If I'm at $75 I ask myself what would it take for me to hop a payout of roughy $150? As if I worked that $75 four that pays $150. I hop 2-2 for $5 and 3-1 for $10. So im giving up $15 to protect that 4, bc I don't want to miss a progression bc it could keep me from possibly collecting $2025 if I miss a payout. Then I had the next issue. Throwing a 2,3,11,12 horn while protecting a 4 on come out. Gone is my $15 2way 4 hop bet $$$... So now I hedge the hedge. house Edge HE says bad bet. I know it is but I have 2 situations I did not collect on bc of hitting four numerous times on CO roll. I don't Eat the 2-way four hedge money and I protect it against a horn for $2 with $1 yo. So I'm into a CO roll $18 once I get the 4 to $75. In this situation I'm hoping to get it to $225 before that CO roll so to only do it once bc now I'm hopping for payout around $450. So as it builds it becomes $15/30. For a 2 way four.
You can't work the CO bc of the 7 showing so you either hedge as described or live with hitting four on come out and missing progression.
I'm only telling you this because I missed 3 $10,000 payouts at a $5000 bet that I should of got to but bc of point and not working CO bc of CO7. That $30,000 could of been huge in bankroll growth and playing at a higher unit. So now I make the sacrifice of a hedge.
Any thought from Math guys here in this situation? Do you let it go? Do you work that bet and expose to a CO 7. What do you do if you don't work and it goes on to hit 3 times as the point and you miss the payout? Do a reduction and say F it. , as I missed 3 progressions, only to realize later that your $18 hedge on CO cost u $30k?
Curious to thoughts here.
Name one.Quote: VegasDiceController
Cant tell you how many times i watched you math POKER GUYS who play EV games stroll over to the craps table and Lose your ass. I played with many BIGS at RIO during WSOP tournaments.
Contrary to popular belief Poker players are NOT MATH GUYS. Guys that are extremely good at math often struggle with poker Exact math is one of the least important parts of poker. Good poker players are human and yes some have gambling addictions or weaknesses including craps. So don't pat yourself on the back just because some poker player loses at craps.
Math dictates craps, variance dictates your streaks and trends. If you think you can avoid the longrun by breaking up your sessions into shorter ones, you will have to explain to everyone how lots of short sessions don't = long sessions. Perhaps you are a winning craps player (doubtful) but you are just on the right side of variance. If you have some magic formula, I say prove it.
All the REAL advantage plays, where math had been used to prove there is an edge, have been proven to work. No -EV craps, Baccarat, roulette etc etc player has ever proven they can consistently beat -EV games, yet there has been cash offers to do so.
This guy presses super heavy and always buys in for 10K but I've never seen him leave with any money. One time he bought in for 15K and I cashed out with more then him. I cashed out with $500 (started with $300) and he cashed out with $150 (started with 15K)
In my case I justify it by saying that I have to drive for 5 hours, or air travel at least 2 hours, to play craps. So a 1 hour game is not going to happen, even if I am up 5x. I want to play at least for 4 to 8 hours.
But what I am trying to do is, when I have hit the 5x win, then reset. Bank the win, and start over again with my initial buy-n amount. Play like it is all I have, and then try to find the magic again.
The drunk guy will probably have more. He will probably then start believing he is some kind of a craps guru, Look out WoV.Quote: dicesitterAxelwolf
All the activities i mentioned are much more than skill, much more. It comes dome to decisions,
every guy in a tournament can fish, they can shoot, they can play poker, the decisions and
preparation is what makes the difference.
What you are suggesting in craps is that you can take a guy that has worked on his shot for years,
undertstands the game, the tables he is playing on, etc.... and then you can take a guy that is
drunk when he plays and they can play 25 sessions at the table with the same starting bank roll
and after every 25 game session they will both have the same amount of money!!!!!
I wonder if that is what you are trying to tell us.
dicesetter
If the drunk guy is playing the best EV bets, then he will do better then some trender.
It seems like the guys who buy in for 10-15k have issues with money management. Unlike us smaller bankroll guys save to fight, scratch and claw to build our bankroll.
Concerning short term =Longterm? I gave the example of the short term on the missing 8 that I laid on dice serial # 256 at The D where 2 D.I's, a buddy name Randy and myself could not pluck out an 8 to save our life. Coincidence? Bad dice? I wish I had found that serial number for sale. I tried to get them but they would not sell to me. I even said please cancel these as ill be checking gift shop weekly. Nope. Never seem them. Guys like me see there is no eights and we don't bet it to hit but bet it NOT to hit. 3 eights in 108 rolls... Should be 15. So it's lagging by 12. So what has to happen over next 108 rolls or when it starts to hit it will make up this balance. It will go and hit 12 more times than the 15 per 108 rolls to balance out the books. The question we don't know is when will this happen. A Sure trigger is it hits twice within 5 rolls it now becomes the best bet in the casino over anything IMO.
So what do all you +EV guys play than?
that is simply because there is no such thing as "these math genius". never has been or ever will beQuote: VegasDiceControllerIt's funny none of these math genius ever answered the original question.
fried brains.Quote: VegasDiceControllerSo what are the odds to hit all that twice while hitting the 12 six times during this single hand roll ?
Thx for taking the time to figure out. It fries my brain trying to do the Math.
excellent win!
your craps only bankroll must be way over $1 million by now.
No chance at all at busting that out. Just keep taking the casinos money.
Next stop at $10 million
That is where the fun is.
why do you now bring up a betting system, a losing one BTW, that was already "torn apart" - shown how bad it is -
by many others way back in 2005?
you must like the attention is my opinion.
also,
your website must make at least $1 million each year doing that by itself.
that is very impressive that is.
Cool site and super cool pictures!
I have been playing Craps for only 3 years and I am stuck in the low $600,000 for my playing bankroll
nothing at all special
unless one considers that I only started with $5,000.
still, I agree, nothing at all special
oh well, it is those that have more fun
that win in the end
oh, your question again
"So what are the odds to hit all that twice while hitting the 12 six times during this single hand roll ?"
well, you either
DO or you DON'T
so your odds (not mine - just my opinion) are 50/50
just a flipo of a coin
really, nothing special about what you did, BTW
millions of my blind squirrel friends do this each and every day, not even thinking
but it is perfectly FINE to FEEL special.
ah, anything that gives a good feeling
did I offer any unsolicited advice?
Sally
what you missed was the 108 rolls before the last 108 rollsQuote: VegasDiceController3 eights in 108 rolls... Should be 15. So it's lagging by 12. So what has to happen over next 108 rolls or when it starts to hit it will make up this balance.
There were 29 8s that rolled
so over 216 rolls that makes 32 actual successes with and ev of 30
looks like 2 more rolled more than expected.
believe away
it has to be way more fun
Sally
So moral of the story. Get to tables 1hr early. ... LMAO
Concerning that systems of Dave's that was debunked back in 2005. Well WTF did you think I did, go back and read 9 yrs of post to find out a topic was already discussed and proven wrong by a Wizard on here? No. I just posted something I thought might be helpful. Forgive me for trying to help bro.
Quote: VegasDiceControllerExactly... Whoever is at the finish line first.... Who cares how we get there right.. We all know the MATH data will surface in the LOngrun, but we (us daily/weekly) guys believe in the short term fluctuations of the game and we try and exploit it. I personally play how the table is Trending at the time... If its Do side play than I'm getting odds on my bets... if it dictates Dont play then playing DONT side and giving up more $$$ to Win less usually if its not a flat bet...
Im the kind of player that if I notice a number gone, Say the 6 or 8 for this matter....GOne to me is 20-24 rolls... Ill lay it for $60 to win $50. Once I see a C.O7 or 7out, Ill parlay that risk and Win and bet next bet is $120 to win $100. this is the bet i wanna WIN... When it does, I now have won $49 and $95 net for a $144. It just became a FREE bet for me now and i repeat step 2. If i win the 3rd Leg of this LAY, i now advance UP and play another 3 tier Lay but my starting point is the middle level of the one i just came from so its $120/$100. Then the next is $240/200, then i repeat that. then advance up to a new 3 tier Lay again. etc etc... when do i stop? After i see (2) eights within 5 rolls of each other... hopefully when i do have 2 eight they are more than 5 rolls.
Now how many 7's of you think one should have with 108 rolls? exactly a lot.... my point is, I collected laying the eight at my base bet of a $50 win on a table and kept using my 3 tier progression bc i seen a table trend on a NO 8 or NO 6.... Where I exploit it, you MATH guys are placing that same 6 or 8 bc the math says it should hit every 7.2 rolls and we have only had 3 eights in 108 rolls...
I would be the type to pull down $1000 during this 1-1.5hr session betting they short term fluctuation of the game, where you would be getting you ass handed to you betting the 6 or 8 or whatever # was gone bc you play the number game where I play the table trend at the time.... hence the term TRENDSETTERCRAPS
did i mention when the 8 returned and i eventually loss my lay, that i had a 50% chance of not losing it a second time if it appeared w/in 5 rolls of first 8 appearance? so theres a chance i only give back 1 loss but guess what, when it returns you are betting it scared bc you got your ass handed to you by playing it over last hour or so...and are not sure if its gonna roll anymore and start doubting all this math stuff, bc its suppose to hit once every 7.2 rolls bc the big books says so.... so you bet it lightly mainly bc your buy in is deflated, where i come in knowing now the MATH of the game will surface and when the dust settles late tonight that this eight will catch up and BALANCE back out the MATH as we get closure to the LONGTERM eventuality of numbers balancing to true mathematics... so i play the 8 now knowing its the best # to be on bc now it was so far behind it has to balance and most times it does... not always but most times it will balance back while you are still at the table...
Boom, its the point and next roll point winner...co 7, co 11 co 8 again.. 1 roll later a 8 winner and so on... in fact i even play those shitty house edge bets you guys stay away from bc of the MATH.... Where I will be hopping a 3 way 8 or $6 or $15, and collecting 31:1 on a hopping Hard 8. ( yes i realize it big house edge), but bc of the table trending and balancing i put MY MATH on hold and bet this high HE and collect BIGTIME. These are the short term fluctuations i play.
But in the LONGTERM the math of the game will be there over 30,000 rolls of the dice. Im only concerned of the 144-180 rolls of that 30,000.
Cant tell you how many times i watched you math POKER GUYS who play EV games stroll over to the craps table and Lose your ass. I played with many BIGS at RIO during WSOP tournaments.
The best of the best in the Poker room, but BLOW on the Craps table unless they get lucky bc they play the Math of the game not the Table Trend during that hr session.PEACE
Most poker pros suck at other forms of gambling. They are just really bad.
That's the best non-free bet on the table when they take the vig after the win.Quote: RaleighCrapsMy favorite bet at this point is the extreme pressure on the Buy 4 and 10. Buy for $100, press to $300, press to $600, press to $1000.
After the second hit, you are up $250, after the third hit you are up $1000. And if the miracle 4th number comes, $2000 and down.
Test worked, original didn't. I hate it when that jhit happens...;-)Quote: eclecticJust lost a 30-minute post in replying to this thread. Let me try a test.
Try your 30 minute post again, I can't wait.
Hmmmm, that didn't sound nice on my part.
What I meant was please try again.
The site needs some new heroes, and hell, we're runnin' low on villains too!
Ask the wizard: #80.
I unfortunately purchased "7,500 Craps Rolls" by Midgley, before I read the VDC informative post on "Green", referencing "72 hours " and zumma.
I was struck by the mention of "Point and Figure" on the zumma site because I had already been constructing those charts from the Midgley book.
This was appealing to me because back in the day I was a technical analyst in London. Gamblers fallacy claims that throws of the die are independent trials, while
market analysts say that charts are the theory of technical analysis are dependent trials due to the investor psychology. Still, there are dice cycles and trends
(based on confirmation bias?) which can also be described as positive/negative variance.
I would reference the book by Dewey: Cycles: The Science of Prediction.
Tks in advance for any feedback on these subjects. I had put together a better essay this this quick, informal and inconclusive draft.
==================================================================
Dewey devoted his life to the study of cycles, claiming that "everything that has been studied has been found to have cycles present." He carried out extensive studies of cyclicity in economic, geological, biological, sociology, physical sciences and other disciplines. As a result of his research, Dewey asserted that seemingly unrelated time series often had similar cycles periods present and that when they did the phase of these cycles was mostly very similar (cycle synchrony). He also said that there were many cycles with periods that were related by powers or products of 2 and 3. Dewey understood his cycle theory to be capable of understanding what the market is going to do and of predicting what may come.
Let's all stay at home and never enter a casino.
Quote: DeMangoA craps system is being formulated as we speak!
Will it show me how to roll 18 yo's in a row?
But This systems betting structure is somewhat flawed. I must comment!
My critique:
-$500 isnt enough BR for any donter.
-the "big odds" aka greed bet will be the number one take down factor. See below where you go broke.
-defeat is admitted after 2 losses just like all other don't betters who martingdale, you're playing gamblers fallacy here. Odds did not change.
-Can't return from this loss without betting more and more and more.
-Appears as a confused mish-mash of a couple system ideas.
-enigmatic psychic calls instead of math.
-claims some dude went to law school on his wins (Big tell).
-no ability to grind, only strike
-swinging back to the pass line odds is an indecisive mistake indicating there is no system at all, or no discipline, it is psychic gambling
-pretty big ask that no one get 2 points or else your not going to play (EPIC dont stradegy)
-take 5u and leave to new table. table hopping is just psychic gambling.
or
-Lose 4 times change tables, after the decision to swap tables has been made you are down about the whole BR if you didnt notice. My estimate is -$440.
-You are broke so switch tables and do what? I am guessing go get another $500.
-there is no system, all you need is a bad table. Bad table required. Thats was the deal all along.
-I know another system that works on a good table. Good table required.
-You may have to Move around too fast for comps
-Just saying here, most of "my" BR is in my pocket, so reading my chips isnt possible for anyone new
Quote: teddys[buying 4 or 10 is] the best non-free bet on the table when they take the vig after the win.
per roll, it is just as low in HE as the pass line
Quote: eclecticLet's all stay at home and never enter a casino.
Saves you a lot of money!
I would say that under certain cold or choppy table conditions (and just how does one quantify that intangible?) the system will work. And that's where the table
trend comes into play: going with the flow if you will. Short term vs long term? And that is why I will be studying my P&F charts of pass/don't pass. Maybe confirmation bias on my part but there do seems to be times--when looking at the charts kept while at the table--that can be helpful for telling the player when to switch sides. This is fun and I enjoy learning.
I am preparing a list of how messed up it is to think a computer can simulate anything short term or mid term.
All I have so far is this:
1-There is only one shooter on a computer. Immediately have to say no thank you. Premis totally denied. I need a craps table not a computer.
........a-Possibility of mitigation?
.............i-Reboot after every 7 out? Come back as new user?
.............ii-Run 12 separate RNGs, switching after 7 out?
.............iii-Run 5 different technology RNGs simultaneously and switch after 7 out?
2-No such thing as true random generator (RNG) on a computer. Many big crimes committed by knowing the programmed RNG. Empirical evidence.
........a-Mitigation?
............i-None known to science, only different types of RNG programming
3-Can't read the table (Table rich or lean, where is the probability curve right now)
4-Can't read the shooter (Shooter rich or lean)
5-Can't read the weather outside (My personal attitude rich or lean)
6-Can't know the difference between holiday and regular day of the year (casino rich or lean)
7-Can't know the difference between Tuesday afternoon or Saturday night (casino rich or lean)
8-Can't "Not" bet against a good shooter again, because there is only one shooter (Shooter rich or lean)
9-Incapable of modified learning (System lo-risk or hi-risk version?)
10-Can't adjust for personal attitude
I bet you could get 25 more good ones without trying.
Quote: HozdaddyNegative Expectation/Long run is true in theory but not practical in application. Casinos have to have some form of compensation for running the games, that is where the negative expectation comes in. Casinos are the long run because they book every bet on every roll 24/7. Casinos could offer bets at true odds and players would still lose because they are under capitalized and lack discipline. Look at the revenues from gaming, do they correlate to the negative expectation? No, they far exceed it. Players play in the short run and to most, a win is never enough and eventually ends up going back to the other side of the table with their buy in. I see it all the time. Just my opinion and I may be wrong.
I think that's a pretty astute comment. I would add that the -ev is continually working, no matter how many times the player risks their bankroll, so it's a continuous, compounding amount, not just a single run-through of the number. I feel lucky if I've managed to walk out even , with a few hours entertainment.
Quote: beachbumbabsI think that's a pretty astute comment.
It wasn't astute at all. Rather, it was flat out wrong. That the casino has the bigger bankroll has nothing to do with it. The reason the casino usually wins is mostly the house edge and to a lesser degree player errors in games of strategy.
Quote: WizardIt wasn't astute at all. Rather, it was flat out wrong. That the casino has the bigger bankroll has nothing to do with it. The reason the casino usually wins is mostly the house edge and to a lesser degree player errors in games of strategy.
Ok. I read it to say what you just said, the -ev exists on virtually every bet and is always working. Maybe I read too fast.
Quote: beachbumbabsOk. I read it to say what you just said, the -ev exists on virtually every bet and is always working. Maybe I read too fast.
I'm with you Babs (finally, right? ;)) I think the poster is making the case that, while -EV exists, the casino doesn't NEED that mathematical edge on every wager to profit. The poster seems to be of the opinion that a casino can survive on player mistakes/bad BR management alone.
Sorry pal, but it applies to each and every roll and that makes it very practical indeed, Yes the casino goes 24/7. Yes they have a big bankroll. So what? No dice crew will ever say 'let him use crooked dice' its only short term.Quote: HozdaddyNegative Expectation/Long run is true in theory but not practical in application..
The casino has an edge, the players have hope.
Quote: HozdaddyDo you think an individual player would win more "sessions" at the tables in the long run?
Depends how a "session" is defined.
Quote: HozdaddyWhat do you realistically lose during an hour of typical play?
I tend to win or lose in wild swings, so does the expected value prove 'typical' ? Well, you might say 'on average' it has proved about right. I figure I 'lose' more money tipping than anything.
for sessions I sometimes win or lose as much as $1000 at which point I tend to color up whether I have more energy to keep going or not
