Fire Bets

Is there a difference in the house advantage if the player places his Fire Bet before the point is established compared to placing a Fire Bet when you know what the first point is?

No. It would if you could make a fire bet after someone has hit their first point. Can you even make a fire bet after you know what the first point is?

I believe it does change the advantage. I'm no fire bet expert, but I believe it pays for FOUR (separate) points hit as well as 5 and 6 separate points. If the first point is a 6, it is easier to make 4 points, than say, if the point is 10. If one of the points required to hit is a 10, it's harder than if a required point is a 6.

ie: Shooter hits 6,5,8,9 pays the same as 10,5,8,4. The first is easier than the second.

If the payout is different depending on which points are actually hit....then I'm not sure. But if any 4 points pays the same as any other 4 points....then placing a fire bet after a point has been established will change the advantage.

My $.02

Quote: RenoAce

Is there a difference in the house advantage if the player places his Fire Bet before the point is established compared to placing a Fire Bet when you know what the first point is?

Any time I have ever played a Fire Bet, the dealers would only take the bet prior to the first point being established.

I have never played anywhere where the dealers would take fire money after the comeout roll.

I tried to place this bet after the first roll was a 11 - and still wouldnt let me do it.

Quote: RenoAce

Is there a difference in the house advantage if the player places his Fire Bet before the point is established compared to placing a Fire Bet when you know what the first point is?

Only if you know what the first point is. If you already had the point marked up as a four or a ten, that would be more progress towards winning the fire bet even before the point is made compared to setting your point on a 5, 6, 8, or 9. The pass line bet loses 31.93% EV when a point is set on the four or a ten for the first time since the bet was made, but the fire bet gains EV in this condition, although I have never done the math on what the gain in EV is. I doubt it's an advantage bet at that point though, as I don't think it's a large gain in EV.

The EV on the fire bet changes 11 times up to the final moment of winnings a six point fire.

The EV changes each time a point is established to a new and unique number on the comeout roll.

And then the EV changes each time a new and unique number is made.

The EV increases 300% each time the final four or ten of a six-point fire is made
The EV increases 250% each time the final five or nine of a six-point fire is made
The EV increases 210% each time the final six or eight of a six-point fire is made

Knowing this you can work backwards from a 1000-for-1 pay table and calculate the EV with just one point made left to make.

EV is $333.33 per $1 fire for the last point being a four or a ten.
EV is $400.00 per $1 fire for the last point being on a five or a nine.
EV is $476.19 per $1 fire for the last point being a six or eight.

People use these EV's to lay the last number and collect the EV without gambling towards the last point being made. (This also addresses another post claiming "Hedges don't work." They absolutely work here. Especially if you are happy with collecting the full 5-point EV without regards to gambling towards the sixth point).

These are the biggest VALUE jumps in EV for the fire bet. But you get the same percentage jumps in EV each time you actually make a unique number.
In addition each point set is also a jump in EV. It's just harder to calculate that as it's more based on the state of which numbers have already been made.

Therefore the first point being set is the smallest +EV move of the bet progression, even on a four or a ten compared to the remaining 11 steps to win a 6-point fire simply because no other numbers have already been made. But the change is in EV is different (there are three possible changes in EV at this stage) depending on 4/10, 5/9, or 6/8.

Maybe a math person can tell you what the change in EV is at this stage. I think working backwards is the easiest way to figure it out. But a sim would also work, I'm pretty sure.

You got plenty of long answers. Here's a short answer:

Yes, it can change the edge, but only very slightly.

So slightly, they shouldn't care, but they do care. I've never seen it allowed after the point was established.

In fact, most won't allow it after the first roll, even if the first roll isn't a point!

Quote: DJTeddyBear

You got plenty of long answers. Here's a short answer:

Yes, it can change the edge, but only very slightly.

So slightly, they shouldn't care, but they do care. I've never seen it allowed after the point was established.

In fact, most won't allow it after the first roll, even if the first roll isn't a point!

Not a bad short answer, but it does, always, change the EV depending on the chance of a point being established. Not "can change" but "does change."

Naturals do not change the EV, and some houses are smart enough to know that and will book the bet before the first point is established.

removed
silly

Sally

The casino I play at will let you bet the fire as long as they are in the come out roll. So if you roll a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 during the come out roll then you can still bet the fire. Once a point is established though, they will not let you bet the fire.

Quote: Ahigh

Maybe a math person can tell you what the change in EV is at this stage.

maybe
or
maybe?
I added mine to me last post

Quote: Ahigh

I think working backwards is the easiest way to figure it out.

maybe for you,
I opted to use a simple 79x79 transition matrix, and I did it as fast as possible.
so there could be (maybe) any number of errors (including no errors)

Quote: Ahigh

But a sim would also work,

all sims can work even if the coding is not right

Quote: Ahigh

I'm pretty

sure

Quote: Ahigh

sure.

Sally

I expect you got it right, and you definitely got an answer faster than I could do it.

Nice work!

Sally I want to play craps with you. Your math is always crazy like. I have no freaking idea how you can do some of that.

Quote: guitarmandp

The casino I play at will let you bet the fire as long as they are in the come out roll. So if you roll a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 during the come out roll then you can still bet the fire.
Once a point is established though, they will not let you bet the fire.

A few places where I have seen the FB also allowed this. Not that it was the casino rules.

If my math is correct on the edges after the first point is established, (from my absorbing transition matrix solution)
maybe a math person could verify my results

and the casinos should add the exception if the first point is a 6 or 8,
"sure be our guest and make that Fire Bet"
sweet 20%+ to now 25%+ edge for pay table1

Sally

of course, there really is no reason why Bally Technologies, Inc. just does not expand the FB.
Let players make the bet AFTER a 1st point has been HIT.

that would require different pay tables but
just about every player would rather make the bet (and a larger one) KNOWING the shooter could be on FIRE with one point winner hit already.
just my opinion

Quote: mustangsally

A few places where I have seen the FB also allowed this. Not that it was the casino rules.

If my math is correct on the edges after the first point is established, (from my absorbing transition matrix solution)
maybe a math person could verify my results

and the casinos should add the exception if the first point is a 6 or 8,
"sure be our guest and make that Fire Bet"
sweet 20%+ to now 25%+ edge for pay table1

Sally

of course, there really is no reason why Bally Technologies, Inc. just does not expand the FB.
Let players make the bet AFTER a 1st point has been HIT.

that would require different pay tables but
just about every player would rather make the bet (and a larger one) KNOWING the shooter could be on FIRE with one point winner hit already.
just my opinion

I've always speculated that one of the reasons that they require to be made before the first point is for security purposes. For example, this person standing next to me that always bets the fire for $1 was furious that they forgot to bet the fire when they made a 6 point fire. Well it turns out that they actually did bet the fire, but sometime during the 1st point a dice knocked it off the fire and a dealer locked up the $1 chip. When surveillance went back they noticed that the fire was placed and there was a mistake made.

If it's a 4 point fire they don't do a lot of surveillance, but if it's a 5 or 6 point it takes about 20 minutes to do the payouts as survaliance has to go back and review each person legitimately bet the fire, and that the dealers didn't mark up the wrong point by mistake. I'm guessing it would become more of an annoyance if people were aloud to bet it late.

Quote: guitarmandp

The casino I play at will let you bet the fire as long as they are in the come out roll. So if you roll a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 during the come out roll then you can still bet the fire. Once a point is established though, they will not let you bet the fire.

My experience agrees. When the Fire first came out they would not let you bet it after the first roll, regardless of what was thrown. Now, however, most of the places I have played in the past 2 years have allowed a Fire bet as long as no point has been established. And many of these were places that did not allow it previously. I'm sure there are still some casinos that won't allow it, but my experience is many more are now allowing it.

Your math looks good to me, Sally. I added the odds after making the first point too just because I can. :+)

Points	New Bet	4 Established	5 Established	6 Established	4 Made	5 Made	6 Made
0	0.5939393939	0.6666666667	0.6	0.5454545455	0	0	0
1	0.260750492	0.2065876153	0.2545454545	0.298212248	0.6197628459	0.6363636364	0.6560669456
2	0.1012753555	0.08558625377	0.1008551377	0.1110249909	0.2567587613	0.2521378443	0.2442549799
3	0.03343421218	0.03044372243	0.0338161289	0.03492297265	0.09133116728	0.08454032225	0.07683053984
4	0.00879817844	0.008727617516	0.008960669671	0.00871052201	0.02618285255	0.02240167418	0.01916314842
5	0.001639933139	0.001791640738	0.001661091723	0.001531981713	0.005374922213	0.004152729306	0.003370359768
6	0.0001624347493	0.0001964835998	0.0001615174236	0.0001427392995	0.0005894507995	0.0004037935589	0.0003140264589

removed
silly


Vacation!

Sally

Mustangsally




Thursday night was an example of what i have been seeing.

We had 4 rolls in a short period of time that had 3 points to the
fire bet, and each time the number that was not hit was a 6 or 8.

For 99% of craps players hitting the fire bet is pure luck and it really
does not matter what number is hit first or second or last. At 5192
to one, hitting the 6 point fire bet is the longest of long shots, but
it still happens and it does not make any difference how it happens
to the folks at the table at the time.

I play the fire bet even though the mays says i should not for one simple
reason, if i play craps smart i can do ok, those times when i play smart
and get lucky at the same time you can make some good money.


dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

Mustangsally




Thursday night was an example of what i have been seeing.

We had 4 rolls in a short period of time that had 3 points to the
fire bet, and each time the number that was not hit was a 6 or 8.

For 99% of craps players hitting the fire bet is pure luck and it really
does not matter what number is hit first or second or last. At 5192
to one, hitting the 6 point fire bet is the longest of long shots, but
it still happens and it does not make any difference how it happens
to the folks at the table at the time.

I play the fire bet even though the mays says i should not for one simple
reason, if i play craps smart i can do ok, those times when i play smart
and get lucky at the same time you can make some good money.


dicesetter

It's one in 6156.3 not 5192, but I am impressed you at least had it pretty close. I'm also impressed what good grammar you used here.

Sally, you know, I think he might be trying pretty hard to impress you. The most glaring grammatical mistake I see is not capitalizing "i" which could be inferred as modesty. Very uncharacteristic of our dicesitter/dicesetter.

Shooting the firebet is pretty easy, now I'm trying to do it in chronological order, without any doubles.

And up jumps the devil, just about the time I thought you were getting your meds right.

I guess they didn't spank in your family.

It's a low risk/high reward bet.

Tossing $1 or $5 at the fire bet once in a while can be fun.

Quote: TerribleTom

It's a low risk/high reward bet.

Tossing $1 or $5 at the fire bet once in a while can be fun.

Wow, how do you define "low risk?" A bet where the maximum bet is something you can afford?

I always thought of laying the four or laying the ten as low risk, not the fire bet.

Quote: Ahigh

Wow, how do you define "low risk?" A bet where the maximum bet is something you can afford?

I always thought of laying the four or laying the ten as low risk, not the fire bet.

I would assume he means it is a low risk relative to the amount that you can win. That is how I look at it as well, even though it is not really a low risk since you are risk g a huge HE over the long run.

I normally play about 90 min sessions and in the 90 mi. I may lose $30 on the firebet which I probably would have lost anyways so I like the chance at 1k for a buck. I would also feel jaded if someone hit the 6 pointer and I didn't ante up a dollar for it. I guess it would be the same feeling I had when I was dealt Qh Qh and didn't play the side bet. Sighh....

Quote: Ahigh

Wow, how do you define "low risk?" A bet where the maximum bet is something you can afford?

I always thought of laying the four or laying the ten as low risk, not the fire bet.

In this case, I'm talking actual dollars. You don't see people tossing black chips onto the fire bet very often. Usually it's $1 or maybe $5 and the payoff is relatively huge if it hits.

Sure the odds of winning are slim - which is why you don't see big bets on it. In that regard, it is indeed a high risk bet.

Quote: TerribleTom

In this case, I'm talking actual dollars. You don't see people tossing black chips onto the fire bet very often. Usually it's $1 or maybe $5 and the payoff is relatively huge if it hits.

Sure the odds of winning are slim - which is why you don't see big bets on it. In that regard, it is indeed a high risk bet.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure there are others who think similarly to you, which is a big part of why the bet was invented.

http://www.google.com/patents/US7686305

Players who associate "risk" with the bet amount love games like Keno, for example.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/keno

Which is well known to be among the highest house edge bets available anywhere in Vegas.

Maybe you should switch to Keno to lower those risky craps bets like free odds if you believe firmly in lowering your risk by lowering the bet amount.

More evidence of such logic:

Quote: KenoSite

Keno online is a low risk with bad odds game, meaning the low risk is you will only be losing small amounts of money, but your odds of winning are very small. That might sound silly, but it is true.

http://www.keno.st/

It would be quite the coincidence if knowing the first point didn't make a difference. Which point is the most helpful, I'm not sure. While a 6 or 8 would help with the lower pays, the 4 and 10 are the hard ones to cross off for making all six, so having a shot at one of them out of the gate might, or might not, increase EV.

I'll defer to Sally for the details.

Quote: Wizard

It would be quite the coincidence if knowing the first point didn't make a difference. Which point is the most helpful, I'm not sure. While a 6 or 8 would help with the lower pays, the 4 and 10 are the hard ones to cross off for making all six, so having a shot at one of them out of the gate might, or might not, increase EV.

I'll defer to Sally for the details.

Did you read the whole thread?

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I noticed Greektown has the Fire Bet on it's Crapless Craps game. Curious to know the house edge here.

Paytable?

deleted

The EV and/or house edge is a matter of probability time pay for each possible pay. The probabilities are in the fire bet patent, which you can google. Sally also provided the same probabilities in her analysis earlier in this thread.

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I'm to lazy today :-) and it's not super important. I was just curious.

Actually, I was wrong. The probabilities are different for making n points on crapless craps. My mistake.

I'm unaware of anything about a crapless craps fire bet.

I found an old post with an answer. I'll double check my work when I have time to do a spreadsheet.
crapless craps fire bet probabilities

Quote: Ahigh

Maybe you should switch to Keno to lower those risky craps bets like free odds if you believe firmly in lowering your risk by lowering the bet amount.

No thanks. I've never placed a fire bet in my life, but I can see the appeal of turning $1 into hundreds.

AHIGH



Ahigh, you should know by now i go my own way i dont have to impress you or Mustangsally.
In the world of craps i have been lucky enough to play with many of the great players. Without
a need to impress them, but rather just to enjoy the experience, i sure as hell dont feel the need
to impress you and I dont know Mustangsally.

In addition at 66 years old and finding that I reached this age with a very nice family and enough
money to get me and my family well beyond any point I expected as a young man, i really dont care
if my typing , spelling or grammar meets your approval.

So if your retreat to the ahigh of old is over, maybe we can get back to craps.

Dicesetter

ps

Sally is correct in the ratio for the 6 point number.

My memory it not what it was 80 or 90 years ago...

Of more interest to me is that in trying to win the fire bet
59% of the shooters will not make any number, 26% will make 1
number, 10% will make 2 numbers and only about 3.3% will
make 3 numbers.

Last night was an exception with most of our rolls getting 1-3 numbers
and we made money, but no one could get the 4th yet alone the 5th.

Quote: miplet

I found an old post with an answer. I'll double check my work when I have time to do a spreadsheet.

I just expanded my
All or Nothing at All (a very good bet for Crapless)
transition matrix
(changed the values and the main diagonal in Excel) to use for the Fire Bet at Crapless Craps
it is now 1034x1034 in size (most values are 0)
a 2x2 looks like this
0.3 0.7
0.6 0.4

and got the following results

# Unique Points	Prob	1 in
0	0.63229437229	1.58
1	0.24599013126	4.07
2	0.08619336014	11.60
3	0.02662294319	37.56
4	0.00705126058	141.82
5	0.00154448824	647.46
6	0.00026653761	3,751.82
7	0.00003388596	29,510.74
8	0.00000287835	347,421.52
9	0.00000013946	7,170,342.31
all 10	0.00000000290	344,842,584.60

If a casino with Crapless Craps uses the regular Craps Fire Bet it would just be simple to call
any losing points of 2,3,11 and 12 a push for the Fire Bet
Now that is cool and unique too

But in my opinion, I think there should be a Crapless version just of the Fire Bet because it is a different animal

and Bally rhymes with
Sally

deleted

Quote: guitarmandp

The casino I play at will let you bet the fire as long as they are in the come out roll. So if you roll a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 during the come out roll then you can still bet the fire. Once a point is established though, they will not let you bet the fire.

This is what I understand to be the official rules of the FB when they were first published on the creator's website. I guess casinos could change their own rules but at Rincon and Caesars the FB can be placed before a point is established and a yo, red or craps doesn't count.

Quote: Ahigh

It's one in 6156.3 not 5192, but I am impressed you at least had it pretty close. I'm also impressed what good grammar you used here.

Sally, you know, I think he might be trying pretty hard to impress you. The most glaring grammatical mistake I see is not capitalizing "i" which could be inferred as modesty. Very uncharacteristic of our dicesitter/dicesetter.

You are much more likely to hit 6 on the FB than hit a royal in video poker and the FB pays better.

Quote: AlanMendelson

You are much more likely to hit 6 on the FB than hit a royal in video poker and the FB pays better.

Wording it that way makes it sound a bit as if you are trying to trick someone into believing that the Fire Bet is a better wager than video poker. The catch, of course, is that the Fire Bet is not a "hit six or lose" proposition nor is video poker a "royal or lose" proposition. It's all the other possible outcomes that make video poker the better wager, assuming you know how to play.

Of course, on a personal level, I have played the Fire Bet a fair number of times, and I don't know that I have ever played video poker. It just doesn't interest me.

Slackerboy finally did the spreadsheet. (Numbers match Sally's.) While hitting 4 or 5 points is harder, getting at least 6 is down to 1 in 3295.5, cutting the house edge to 13.4% instead of 20.8% .

Points	Probability	Pays	Return
0	0.63229437229	-1	-0.6322943723
1	0.24599013126	-1	-0.2459901313
2	0.08619336014	-1	-0.08619336014
3	0.02662294319	-1	-0.02662294319
4	0.00705126058	24	0.169230254
5	0.00154448824	249	0.3845775707
6	0.00026653761	999	0.2662710757
7	0.00003388596	999	0.03385207888
8	0.00000287835	999	0.002875469518
9	0.00000013946	999	0.0001393238923
10	0.00000000290	999	0.000002896973995
	1.00000000000		-0.1341521372

Alan



Here in Wisconsin you have to have your bet there before the shooter gets the dice.

Dicesetter

Quote: miplet

Slackerboy finally did the spreadsheet. (Numbers match Sally's.) While hitting 4 or 5 points is harder, getting at least 6 is down to 1 in 3295.5, cutting the house edge to 13.4% instead of 20.8% .

Points	Probability	Pays	Return
0	0.63229437229	-1	-0.6322943723
1	0.24599013126	-1	-0.2459901313
2	0.08619336014	-1	-0.08619336014
3	0.02662294319	-1	-0.02662294319
4	0.00705126058	24	0.169230254
5	0.00154448824	249	0.3845775707
6	0.00026653761	999	0.2662710757
7	0.00003388596	999	0.03385207888
8	0.00000287835	999	0.002875469518
9	0.00000013946	999	0.0001393238923
10	0.00000000290	999	0.000002896973995
	1.00000000000		-0.1341521372

That's awesome to know. It's all of a sudden not as horrible of a bet! I hope the casino already knew this information when they started running the bet. They could find out the hard way that they're paying twice as many 6-pointers.