Fire bet alters the long-term 'odds'?

I enjoy craps and the people watching enough to play long hours pretty conservative.
...the Fire bet becomes this 'go home bet' - $5 paying $1,250 or $5k My question then: given the quality of the craps play models, with a simulation of 10,000 rolls, what is the frequency of 4, 5, and 6 different points?

You don't need to run a simulation at all. This may be calculated exactly. Take a look here.

Thanks, Doc.
With that payout it does make we wonder. Been to vegas 4-5 times over the past 4 years - rarely saw many but this past trip was exception: two x 4 points, one x 5 points and yes, one x 6. Obviously went home a winner - but playing kinda slowly, not big bets, use come line, 'just being on the table' that hits did indeed pay off that trip. From your numbers, it really would seem I was simply lucky. Thanks

beyond the statistics, what would number theory (streaks and trends) say about such a bet? I am assuming it is a sucker bet by stats...

Quote: stetson

I am assuming it is a sucker bet by stats...

The below was a really good thread on the fire bet, and other bets too, although some of it was over my head

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12586-craps-bet-race/

I always felt that 7craps was a defender of the fire bet to a degree, and the chart shows why [maybe]. As far as some of the other bets, that they suck is shown too. Place 5, for example, after this many bets has practically no players who are winners.

On the other hand, the firebet has winners almost as often as the pass line [so does the place 6]. Sound wrong? Again, it is after a lot of bets here, where negative expectation means mostly losers. So it is making the case that the firebet can be considered for the player who lives for big wins. The thing is, when the player loses, on average he loses more ... a lot more.

Just no redeeming value at all for the Place 5/9 or the 3x Field either it seems.

I always play the fire bet. It may be a sucker bet but a $1000 winner means a lot more to me than a $50 loss over the course of a few hours of playing.

Of course it's a sucker bet -- 20%+ house edge. But it can be a fun little wager to throw a buck on occasionally. Just don't ever let it be a significant part of your action, or you will quickly go down in flames.

I really suspect that I am ahead lifetime on the fire bet, because I bet it so rarely (and only at $1) and have hit it for $25 and $250 a couple of times. I've seen it paid when I wasn't on it, but I've never seen it hit for six points with anybody on it.

Quote: Doc

Of course it's a sucker bet -- 20%+ house edge. But it can be a fun little wager to throw a buck on occasionally. Just don't ever let it be a significant part of your action, or you will quickly go down in flames.

I really suspect that I am ahead lifetime on the fire bet, because I bet it so rarely (and only at $1) and have hit it for $25 and $250 a couple of times. I've seen it paid when I wasn't on it, but I've never seen it hit for six points with anybody on it.

I have been won the 4 point 3 times and that is it. I have probably played it 500 times so I am way down but I still have 500 more attempts for a 6 pointer and I will be ahead and very happy for the day.

First thing is that, when it comes to craps, they are all "sucker bets" really.

Second thing is that you can look up the chance to win on the patent for the fire bet.

https://www.google.com/patents/US6655689

Chance to hit 6-point fire: 1 in 6156.31
Chance to hit 5-point fire: 1 in 609.78
Chance to hit 4-point fire: 1 in 113.66
Chance to hit 3-point fire: 1 in 29.91

I've seen the 6-point fire bet pay off three times in my life. I believe I have won a 5-point fire on my roll once and it was exciting. But it paid only 150-to-1 because it was at a ghetto casino that will remain nameless.

Using the probabilities, you could make whatever pay table you wanted. But there are only two pay tables in common use here in Vegas. I think one pays $300 for the 6-point fire, and one pays $1000.

The all-tall and/or bonus bet is more common now in Vegas.

A casino could make a fire bet with a lower house edge if it were a priority or generated enough revenue. The word on the street (in the pits) is that the fire bet sucks and that it's too time consuming and doesn't make enough money regardless of the edge.

Most of the money is made selling a dozen hop bets every roll to some suckers.

Quote: stetson

My question then: given the quality of the craps play models,

quality of the craps play models.
The female types?
This one making some of the bad place bets (sucker bets)

at least the odds are taken
Hey Dealer! What is the NO on the 8? Thank You!

or
The hot ones only
like inside place bets always pressing, with full parlays on all the hardways and a horn bet every roll.


what are you trying to say in simple English so any 80 year old grandma could understand

Quote: stetson

"Fire bet alters the long-term 'odds'? "

imo, no
if yes,
in what universe and how exactly does it accomplish this.

not really interested in answers
just opinions
Sally

I've seen several 5 point fires and I think 4, 6 point fire bets.

First of all the most memorable for me was me being at an ice cold table that was basically point 7 for 2 hours. I was up $500 betting $15 on the don't pass with no odds and a $3 hop the 7's in the come out roll to hedge against a 7. If I played like I play now I would be up a grand at least and would have probably left by now, but I was new to craps so didn't know what I was doing.

Anyways after 2 hours of being up $500, I lost everything and got completely cleaned out on 2 shooters that made back to back 5 point fires. The more points the 2nd shooter was making the more money I was betting being superstitious thinking (What are the odds of back to back fires) and it ended up taking a huge win and turning it into a huge loss. Lesson learned, I now as a don't pass player wait for a new shooter after 3 points.

Now my dad who also plays every day was on a table that had two six point fires in the same day (they were a couple of hours apart), my dad thinks the fire is a sucker bet so he doesn't bet the fire.

I also was on a table where they made a six point fire bet but nobody really made any big money except the one person who had $10 on it and got paid $10,000. The reason nobody really made any big money on it was because he rolled very few numbers, just points, but those points happened to be all six points of the fire. After he made the six point fire, his next point (a repeater obviously because he'd already hit the six point fire) was a six and he went out immediately. Me and my dad were on the same table, and he doesn't even remember this but I will never forget it.

What I don't like about being on a table with a six point fire is that Surveillance has to review every little minute detail about the roll and it usually shuts the table down for 20 minutes, while they get everything in order.

Another incident that happened is after somebody hit a six point fire, this guy walked up to me and tried to hand me a white chip asking me if I will put it on the fire for him since you have to have $15 in action to bet the fire. I said "absolutely not, bet it yourself" and he got hot and called me a "Punk ass bitch". The reason I said that is because, even though back to back six point fires would be rare (there's a floor manager here that claims he saw back to back six pointers at a casino he worked at several years back), people do win the lottery. If lightning strikes and the fire hits twice in a row, I don't want to have to deal with the taxes and the paperwork you have to fill out, when it's somebody else collecting the money. For those that don't know, any payout that's 300 to 1 is considered a jackpot and taxed.

Also for those that are superstitious about good and bad shooters, the last 6 pointer I was on, the person that made the six pointer when it came time for him to shoot next, it was point seven which tells me that it's all luck.

I was at a table at Paris couple of years back when this dude hit 10 points - including the 6 for the Fire. Nobody at the table was on it - now I made tons of $$ so no complaints but I decided at that point I would never miss out again. Whats throwing $5 or $10 when you are on a gambling trip.

Havent hit the 6 point since - but have got paid on 4 5 pointers and several 4 pointers.

fun bet

I'm thinking that is my attitude too... The stats show its ROI (not a good bet) yet for spending entertainment dollars when it hits the entertainment value is pretty significant...

Last night, a regular at the casino collected $12,000+ as the 5 point fire hit twice in 2 hours last night!

You can build your own fire bet. Well something like a fire bet that wins a bunch on hot rolls. Bet an extra $1 on the pass line and parley that portion of the pass every win. After 10 wins (1 in 1181), you'll have $1024 assuming you haven't hit the table limit. That's a house edge of 13.2%.

If you prefer smaller wins along the way, you can take back $6 after 4 wins, $60 after 8 wins, $600 after 12 wins, etc.

You could also do this with the don't.

Quote: ChampagneFireball

You can build your own fire bet. Well something like a fire bet that wins a bunch on hot rolls. Bet an extra $1 on the pass line and parley that portion of the pass every win. After 10 wins (1 in 1181), you'll have $1024 assuming you haven't hit the table limit. That's a house edge of 13.2%.

If you prefer smaller wins along the way, you can take back $6 after 4 wins, $60 after 8 wins, $600 after 12 wins, etc.

You could also do this with the don't.

hmm I never thought of that

Quote: ChampagneFireball

You can build your own fire bet. Well something like a fire bet that wins a bunch on hot rolls. Bet an extra $1 on the pass line and parley that portion of the pass every win. After 10 wins (1 in 1181), you'll have $1024 assuming you haven't hit the table limit. That's a house edge of 13.2%.

If you prefer smaller wins along the way, you can take back $6 after 4 wins, $60 after 8 wins, $600 after 12 wins, etc.

You could also do this with the don't.

This also has the advantage that the points made don't have to be unique.

So you would have to do this as an adder to your PL bet, since most casinos won't let you make a $1 PL bet. And, unlike the Fire Bet, you lose it all on a Come Out craps. Of course, that is offset by the fact you get to count a Comeout winner 7 or 11 as a point made.

It is a bit messy, but pretty interesting.

Once you get above the table min though, I would split it into its own PL bet. Many casinos won't let you make an odds bet less than your PL bet

Quote: RaleighCraps

So you would have to do this as an adder to your PL bet, since most casinos won't let you make a $1 PL bet. And, unlike the Fire Bet, you lose it all on a Come Out craps. Of course, that is offset by the fact you get to count a Comeout winner 7 or 11 as a point made.

It is a bit messy, but pretty interesting.

Once you get above the table min though, I would split it into its own PL bet. Many casinos won't let you make an odds bet less than your PL bet

I wonder how annoyed the dealers would be when I am making a $6 pass line, then a $7 pass line, then a $9 pass line.

Also, I do a $9 pass because of the progression then my odds would have to be at least $9 as well. Not a problem unless I was only doing 1x odds and expecting to only have $5 down as oodds

MustangSally is the queen of craps sims. Maybe she could sim this method for us. Is that even possible on wincraps (if that is what she uses)?

Quote: ChampagneFireball

You can build your own fire bet. Well something like a fire bet that wins a bunch on hot rolls. Bet an extra $1 on the pass line and parley that portion of the pass every win. After 10 wins (1 in 1181), you'll have $1024 assuming you haven't hit the table limit. That's a house edge of 13.2%.

If you prefer smaller wins along the way, you can take back $6 after 4 wins, $60 after 8 wins, $600 after 12 wins, etc.

You could also do this with the don't.

Forget the extra $1, just parlay a table minimum PL wager (no odds).

A $10 wager becomes $5120 after 10 consecutive wins. You also have the added benefit of winning on all of the come out rolls, something that does not apply to the fire bet.

The fire bet offers a crazy payout on a small wager - often $1 - which is why it's popular. It costs practically nothing and pays big when it hits.

Quote: GWAE

I wonder how annoyed the dealers would be when I am making a $6 pass line, then a $7 pass line, then a $9 pass line.

I've never had a problem with strange numbers on any bets, but sometimes they use the original bet to make change which can mess with your accounting. I always keep extra whites around for that. And who cares what the dealers think, they are going to book the bet.

Quote:

Also, I do a $9 pass because of the progression then my odds would have to be at least $9 as well. Not a problem unless I was only doing 1x odds and expecting to only have $5 down as oodds

I've never had an issue with $9 pass and $5 odds on a $5 table. I've never heard of this 1x minimum rule, odds are expressed as a maximum. As long as you are at or above the table minimum, you should be fine. There are even places that let you put out odds below the table min, like $4 odds on a $5 table with $5 passline.

Quote: TerribleTom

Forget the extra $1, just parlay a table minimum PL wager (no odds).

A $10 wager becomes $5120 after 10 consecutive wins. You also have the added benefit of winning on all of the come out rolls, something that does not apply to the fire bet.

The fire bet offers a crazy payout on a small wager - often $1 - which is why it's popular. It costs practically nothing and pays big when it hits.

If I'm on the passline I like to parlay my winnings. If you can win 6 times in a row you can turn $15 into $1,000 but the problem is I chicken out and take it off after I get to $240.

I saw 9 sevens in a row last weekend but I was on the don't pass ):

Quote: TerribleTom

Forget the extra $1, just parlay a table minimum PL wager (no odds).

A $10 wager becomes $5120 after 10 consecutive wins. You also have the added benefit of winning on all of the come out rolls, something that does not apply to the fire bet.

The fire bet offers a crazy payout on a small wager - often $1 - which is why it's popular. It costs practically nothing and pays big when it hits.

I actually do that on the rare occasions that I play the passline but whenever I get up to like $400 I chicken out and take it off.