Weird (dumb) question about odds.
I dont know if this would be considererd sigle odds (i guess so). On the pass line they offer x2 odds, so I guess that would make the passline have better odds than the dont pass right? Im sorry if this is a dumb question, but i want to be sure.
Yes, pass with double odds has lower combined house edge than DP with single odds.
I'm math challenged so I'm sorry if this example is to off.
Place $25 come bet, roll the six then add $50 odds so if you roll the six again you win $25+$60= $85.
Now if you make a $30 place bet on the six, roll the six and win $35, now press the six with 30 of your 35 winnings, hit the six again and get $70. Take down the place bet and you have now a $105 profit in the same 2 hits as if you had placed a come bet.
I know there has to be something wrong with my logic, but it seems that if the total amount of the come bet and place bet you win more with a place /buy bet on the same number of rolls, and I blame that flat bet that's paid even money.
Please correct me!
Quote: Martin1024Thanks for your answer. I have another dumb question: I know the house edge is lower on the come bets because you get paid true odds, but how does that benefit you so much in the long run if you need to hit the number twice to win?
I'm math challenged so I'm sorry if this example is to off.
Place $25 come bet, roll the six then add $50 odds so if you roll the six again you win $25+$60= $85.
Now if you make a $30 place bet on the six, roll the six and win $35, now press the six with 30 of your 35 winnings, hit the six again and get $70. Take down the place bet and you have now a $105 profit in the same 2 hits as if you had placed a come bet.
I know there has to be something wrong with my logic, but it seems that if the total amount of the come bet and place bet you win more with a place /buy bet on the same number of rolls, and I blame that flat bet that's paid even money.
Please correct me!
If you make a $25 come bet and the next roll is a 7, what happens?
If you make a $30 place 6 bet and the next roll is a 7, what happens?
Place and come are different bets. The only way to compare them is house edge. Come bets with double odds have a lower combined house edge than any place bet. So if you want to cover the numbers, come is the way to go.
Also, you don't have to hit a number twice to win a come bet. You only have to hit it once, after you get your come point. To win a come bet, you don't need to roll exactly a 6 and then a 6. You could also roll a 4 and then a 4. Or any point number after you establish it. Or a 7 or 11 on the come-out. There are more ways to win a come bet than a place bet.
Quote: spadeknightI totally agree sodawater. when your going to put a bet on the come you give yourself a chance to win with a 22 percent chance of winning and only an 11 percent chance of losing. since the seven rolls more than any other number then the more times you are on the pass or come the more chances you have to win. Then after you do get a point if you dont crap out then you can get free odds with no house edge. simply placing a single number that has more chances to lose isnt the best way to play craps.
a better way to think about this is to IMAGINE an Urn with 36 power balls in it. All same size and weight.Quote: spadeknightwhen your going to put a bet on the come you give yourself a chance to win with a 22 percent chance of winning and only an 11 percent chance of losing.
There are 8 greens, 4 reds and 24 blues.
when you make a come or pass bet
you reach in and remove, without looking, one of the balls (not one of yours)
green wins (you do not have to select another green to win)
red is a loss
blue is fun!
the ball opens up and inside is a number that corresponds to another Urn that has more red, green and blue balls but not in the same ratio as the first.
huh?
just like a pass or come bet that magically turns into a put bet the instant a point is established.
what about the 11?Quote: spadeknightsince the seven rolls more than any other number then the more times you are on the pass or come the more chances you have to win.
The 7 actually rolls less than the 6 and the 8 combined
so in reality there should be way more 6s and 8s rolled than 7s in any sample size, one would think so
but I have seen times where more 7s roll than 6s and 8s combined too.
Time to get a new random number generator for Craps
throw away those dice!
after a point...Quote: spadeknightThen after you do get a point if you dont crap out
what is crap out?
is that when a 7 rolls and the pass and come bets lose?
you call that a crap out?
I think you are in the majority on that, so it must be true.
wow
public perception is you win more money making place bets than come bets.Quote: spadeknightthen you can get free odds with no house edge. simply placing a single number that has more chances to lose isnt the best way to play craps.
most dealers say this too as a fact, not fiction fiction
Thanks for sharing your opinions!
I always share mine too
Sally
oh, watch out for member Ahigh (and me)
I feel he is like Jimmy Page so be on your toes at all times
The bettor faces exactly the same hurdle with pass line bets. Do you have a problem with those, too?Quote: Martin1024I know the house edge is lower on the come bets because you get paid true odds, but how does that benefit you so much in the long run if you need to hit the number twice to win?
That's generally a bet in units of $12 dollars and pays $7 per $12.
I like to ask for this bet by putting $12 on the come and saying in an sort of Asian female dealer voice "SICK AN ATE."
They will put $6 on the six and $6 on the eight.
If either the six or the eight hits, you will win $7. That's when you say "E'REY TING DOWN". when they return your money you say "YAY! I WON! YAY!!!!"
Your bet is over.
This bet is not marked independently on the felt, but it can be had. $12 pays $7. You win ten out of sixteen times on average. The bet lasts for 36/16 rolls (2.25 rolls) and goes very quickly. The edge per resolution is lower than betting only the six or only the eight because of the fewer number of rolls.
The edge is $0.20 / $19.20 = 1.0416%
Happy to be of service!
YAY!!!!!
Quote: Ahigh
I like to ask for this bet by putting $12 on the come and saying in an sort of Asian female dealer voice "SICK AN ATE."
I always say "Sit dolla sit." Oh well, neither of us are linguists.
Quote: AhighYou can bet that the 6/8 comes before a seven.
That's generally a bet in units of $12 dollars and pays $7 per $12.
I like to ask for this bet by putting $12 on the come and saying in an sort of Asian female dealer voice "SICK AN ATE."
They will put $6 on the six and $6 on the eight.
If either the six or the eight hits, you will win $7. That's when you say "E'REY TING DOWN". when they return your money you say "YAY! I WON! YAY!!!!"
Your bet is over.
This bet is not marked independently on the felt, but it can be had. $12 pays $7. You win ten out of sixteen times on average. The bet lasts for 36/16 rolls (2.25 rolls) and goes very quickly. The edge per resolution is lower than betting only the six or only the eight because of the fewer number of rolls.
The edge is $0.20 / $19.20 = 1.0416%
Gee, with such great reasoning, why stop with SICK AN ATE? Why not FO FIE SICK ATE NIE TEN?
You put up $32 across. If 4,5,6,8,9,or 10 hit you win from $7 to $9. That's when you say "E'REY TING DOWN". When they return your money you say "YAY! I WON! YAY!!!!"
Your bet is over.
You win 24 out of 30 times on average. The bet lasts 36/30 rolls (1.2 rolls) and goes very quickly. The edge per resolution is lower than betting only SICK AN ATE because of the fewer number of rolls.
The edge is $12 / $960 = 0.0125 <edit removed % symbol>
YAY, YAY, YAY, DAT MUCH BETTA DAN SICK AN ATE! Why doan you go fo dis wun missa Ahigh?
Quote: SteenGee, with such great reasoning, why stop with SICK AN ATE? Why not FO FIE SICK ATE NIE TEN?
You put up $32 across. If 4,5,6,8,9,or 10 hit you win from $7 to $9. That's when you say "E'REY TING DOWN". When they return your money you say "YAY! I WON! YAY!!!!"
Your bet is over.
You win 24 out of 30 times on average. The bet lasts 36/30 rolls (1.2 rolls) and goes very quickly. The edge per resolution is lower than betting only SICK AN ATE because of the fewer number of rolls.
The edge is $12 / $960 = 0.0125%
YAY, YAY, YAY, DAT MUCH BETTA DAN SICK AN ATE! Why doan you go fo dis wun missa Ahigh?
If you want to bet on a box before a seven, six of those wins makes you $9 instead of $7.
So the average pay is ( $9 * 6/24 ) + ( $7 * 18/24 ) = $2.25 + 5.25 = $7.50
With no edge the average pay would be ( $10 * 6/24 ) + ( $7.50 * 8/24 ) + ( $7.20 * 10/24 ) = $2.50 + $2.50 + $3 = $8
So the average edge is $0.50 / ( $32 + $8 ) = 1.25%
Missed it by that much (holding hand with index finger and thumb close together).
Quote: NowTheSerpentSo in 36 rolls, you hit the Six five times for $7 each, the 8 five times for $7 each, and you lose $12 each of the six times that the seven rolls. Thus, you win $70 and lose $72 for an overall loss of $2 out of $6 x 11 x 2 = $132 bet, so E = -2/132 = -1.5152% just as if you had placed only one of the two bets and lost $1. The E = -1.0416667% figure is for a one-roll Place bet which is removed after the next roll, win (6), lose (7), or push (all else).
I'm not sure I follow this, but I think you're misunderstanding something somewhere.
I'm talking about the bet you can roll a six or an eight before a seven.
Edge per roll is the same as placing the six or and eight. It just lasts fewer rolls which lowers the edge per resolution.
Simple stuff really.
$0.20 / $13.20 = 1.51% per resolution on either the six or eight.
Those bets lasts 36/11 rolls or 3.272727 rolls .. so that's 0.00462962962962962962962962962963 edge per roll.
When you only bet that edge per roll for 36/16 rolls you come up with 0.01041666666666666666666666666667 or 1.041666%.
So many people have problems doing math for bets that aren't marked on the felt. It's okay though.
The one roll bet has a 0.46296296% edge not 1.041666%
Quote: AhighIf you want to bet on a box before a seven, six of those wins makes you $9 instead of $7.
So the average pay is ( $9 * 6/24 ) + ( $7 * 18/24 ) = $2.25 + 5.25 = $7.50
With no edge the average pay would be ( $10 * 6/24 ) + ( $7.50 * 8/24 ) + ( $7.20 * 10/24 ) = $2.50 + $2.50 + $3 = $8
So the average edge is $0.50 / ( $32 + $8 ) = 1.25%
Missed it by that much (holding hand with index finger and thumb close together).
I'll grant you that I forgot to move my decimal point when I editted my post and added the % symbol (two points for you). But I did write that it was the result of $12/$960 and you should be capable of performing such simple math yourself.
What's worse is that you fail to see or address the point. This bet is also better than betting 6 alone or 8 alone even though all numbers are covered and even though they include individual edges of 1.52%, 4%, and 6.67%! Why?
Let me offer another example.
$30 Place 6 bet
$1 Twelve bet (using 30 to 1 payoff)
5 ways to roll 6 and win $34 (that's $35 win on Place 6 minus $1 loss on Twelve) = $170
1 way to roll 12 and win $30 = $30
6 ways to roll 7 and lose $31 = -$186
24 ways to roll any other number and lose $1 = -$24
Total = -$10
$31 Bet lasts 36 rolls = $1116
edge (per your reasoning) = $10 / $1116 = 0.896%
Now, why don't you propose to bet this superior combination?
Quote: SteenI'll grant you that I forgot to move my decimal point when I editted my post and added the % symbol (two points for you). But I did write that it was the result of $12/$960 and you should be capable of performing such simple math yourself.
What's worse is that you fail to see or address the point. This bet is also better than betting 6 alone or 8 alone even though all numbers are covered and even though they include individual edges of 1.52%, 4%, and 6.67%! Why?
Let me offer another example.
$30 Place 6 bet
$1 Twelve bet (using 30 to 1 payoff)
5 ways to roll 6 and win $34 (that's $35 win on Place 6 minus $1 loss on Twelve) = $170
1 way to roll 12 and win $30 = $30
6 ways to roll 7 and lose $31 = -$186
24 ways to roll any other number and lose $1 = -$24
Total = -$10
$31 Bet lasts 36 rolls = $1116
edge (per your reasoning) = $10 / $1116 = 0.896%
Now, why don't you propose to bet this superior combination?
I generally only bet bets that have an edge per roll below 0.5%
I like to keep things simple. You were the only that made the error. If you had come up with 1.25% instead of 0.0125% I might not have assumed that you were unable to come up with the right answer.
When I decide what to bet, I *ALWAYS* look at the edge per roll. And I *ALWAYS* try to minimize the number of rolls if I am simply gambling and hoping to win so as to keep the edge from getting in my way (IE: make the fewest number of bets).
So let me ask you a reciprocating question: why do you ask such questions like "why not bet a bet with a 13.89% edge per roll?"
Quote: AhighI generally only bet bets that have an edge per roll below 0.5%
I like to keep things simple.
So that's your answer? You like to keep things simple? So you hold that a $6 Place 6 and $6 Place 8 are simpler than $30 Place 6 and $1 Twelve? I would disagree but perhaps you can explain why you think it's simpler.
Quote: AhighYou were the only that made the error. If you had come up with 1.25% instead of 0.0125% I might not have assumed that you were unable to come up with the right answer.
When it comes to math, people usually show their work so that others can see what they've done and where any errors were made. I clearly showed the answer to be 12/960. My misplacement of the final decimal point is a red herring you seem desperate to cling to rather than address the real issue.
Quote: AhighWhen I decide what to bet, I *ALWAYS* look at the edge per roll. And I *ALWAYS* try to minimize the number of rolls if I am simply gambling and hoping to win so as to keep the edge from getting in my way (IE: make the fewest number of bets).
Your personal preferences or what you *ALWAYS* look at has nothing to do with the issue. The problem is that you misunderstand the meaning of "edge". You're comparing the standard edge (house advantage) of 1.52% for Place 6 or 8 to your combined calculation yielding 1.0416%. The answer you're providing is a perversion of the house advantage. You're counting unresolved wagers as having had action when clearly they have not. My example of $30 Place 6 and $1 Twelve illustrates the exact same thing and yields an even lower edge per your argument. If your method is correct then you should be able to explain why rather than pose a reciprocal question as a dodge.
Quote: AhighSo let me ask you a reciprocating question: why do you ask such questions like "why not bet a bet with a 13.89% edge per roll?"
I wasn't posing such a question. I was pointing out the fact that I can take a high edge bet like the Twelve, combine it with a Place 6 bet and yield a lower edge using your calculations. This should strike you as odd - that something is wrong with your method.
I see it as not a problem. Just the way he wants to do things and that leads to the problem you point out.Quote: SteenThe problem is that you misunderstand the meaning of "edge".
You calculated a combined edge exactly as Ahigh does (in other words - using Ahigh's method)
and you are not a craps expert like Ahigh considers himself because you make a simple math mistake.
hmmm good
Skittles
Quote: SteenYou're comparing the standard edge (house advantage) of 1.52% for Place 6 or 8 to your combined calculation yielding 1.0416%.
did he not first arrive at the per roll edge of -1/216?
and an EV of -2/36 (that is my value)
I, might be wrong here
WoW!Quote: SteenThe answer you're providing is a perversion of the house advantage.
Tell the truth please
Oh, OKQuote: SteenYou're counting unresolved wagers as having had action when clearly they have not.
But rolls where the bets push should be counted as action.
Is this wrong?
in other words, not correct
But per roll one gets
6/36 * -12
PLUS
10/36 * 7
PLUS
20/36 * 0 = EV of -2/36
-2/36 * 1/12 = what I said before
Is this not correct?
Clearly EVERYONE has their OWN opinion on what the HE and EV of any combined craps bets are
what happens when the HE of two methods are DIFFERENT but the EV of both methods are the same?
This been done many time before too
Sally
Me: Edge per roll and done
I am the Queen of Gambling
thanks for your opinionQuote: AhighYou guys: argue argue argue argue
where is the arguing exactly
no question marks exposed in this thread
in another opinion, you are very good ask NOT answering simple questions posed to you
I gather you are taking a hammer now to your simulation code as it has to be the only reason you have not posted your results
from your simulation you said would be done soon.
thanks for another opinion on your methodQuote: AhighMe: Edge per roll and done
you post many times edge per bet resolved
many many times confusing you're readers, in my opinion
EV rules (a real craps expert shows the EV in their work)
HE sucks (one that is not a craps expert only talks about HE)
that is how one can tell (not Adele)
still an opinion
no
1) your $6 place 6 and 8 that gets taken down after a win
that bet NOT on the felt
2) verses a $12 place 8 always working and only replaced on a loss
verses
3) placing the 6 and 8 for $6 dollars and never working on the come out roll
are they all the same
Is the house edge different because of the rolls to resolve the bet or the average bet in action per roll is different or exactly what
Sally
Quote: AhighYou guys: argue argue argue argue
Another dodge. You don't argue, right? You ASSERT and others must ACCEPT! Regardless of what we call it, you still haven't answered those questions. I guess that means you can't explain the paradox.
Quote: AhighMe: Edge per roll and done
This still misses the point. This is not a question of "per roll" versus "per decision". It's a matter of what constitutes action and should be included in the calculations. Both "per roll" and "per decision" calculations can yield correct answers when you properly account for the action.
Quote: AhighYou guys: argue argue argue argue
Me: Edge per roll and done
Now follow that same strategy in here, PLEASE !
Quote: SteenAnother dodge. You don't argue, right? You ASSERT and others must ACCEPT! Regardless of what we call it, you still haven't answered those questions. I guess that means you can't explain the paradox.
This still misses the point. This is not a question of "per roll" versus "per decision". It's a matter of what constitutes action and should be included in the calculations. Both "per roll" and "per decision" calculations can yield correct answers when you properly account for the action.
I'm not dodging anything. The thing that is being argued is what is considered a valid bet and what is not. If all the discussions about house edge were only compared in the domain of edge per roll, so many mistakes like the mistakes that you made would not occur.
Just like Sally, I feel that the attack that is being made on me, in this instance, and in others, stems from the fact that people simply cannot understand things that are outside their current domain of accepted knowledge.
The specific instance of refusing that I can have a bet that resolves in the case of either a six or an eight or a seven rolling is the sticking point for most people.
You and Sally are alike in the sense that you argue that if there are two boxes on the felt where two halves of your bet must be placed that it cannot be a single resolution.
That's a very limited perspective. But for such a limited perspective, simply consider the edge per roll and no other edge and comparisons are very simple. Each and every bet is a bet on a single throw of the dice and you can consider each throw a resolution.
If you want to count resolved bets for the boxes marked on the felt and not consider resolved bets that you construct on your own volition, you are simply limiting your view on how the game may be played.
It's just my view that simply eliminating special conditions for edges per resolution but only for bets that are marked on the felt is just a wee bit arbitrary for someone who understands the various ways that the game can be played.
Limiting the views on how the game can be played is one of the most effective mechanisms that a highly skilled crew can quickly separate money from the players. Selling horrible bets and encouraging the player to continue playing as long as possible is the backbone of how money is made.
If you only want to gamble (rather than pay to play the game) fewer rolls is ALWAYS better. And knowing your edge per roll and getting your goal accomplished quickly is the most effective way to reach a decisive win or loss point and consider your gamble successful or a failure.
More and more rolls simply reduces further and further your chance to meet your win goals, no matter how modest they may be.
Quote: mustangsallyThank You
I am the Queen of Gamblingthanks for your opinion
where is the arguing exactly
no question marks exposed in this thread
in another opinion, you are very good ask NOT answering simple questions posed to you
I gather you are taking a hammer now to your simulation code as it has to be the only reason you have not posted your results
from your simulation you said would be done soon.
thanks for another opinion on your method
you post many times edge per bet resolved
many many times confusing you're readers, in my opinion
EV rules (a real craps expert shows the EV in their work)
HE sucks (one that is not a craps expert only talks about HE)
that is how one can tell (not Adele)
still an opinion
nowhat is the EV per roll for
1) your $6 place 6 and 8 that gets taken down after a win
that bet NOT on the felt
2) verses a $12 place 8 always working and only replaced on a loss
verses
3) placing the 6 and 8 for $6 dollars and never working on the come out roll
are they all the same
Is the house edge different because of the rolls to resolve the bet or the average bet in action per roll is different or exactly what
Sally
Here's the thing, Sally. I don't even feel like responding to your rude posts. It has nothing to do with anything technical and everything to do with me being angry about the rude way that you address me.
Quote: SteenLet me offer another example.
$30 Place 6 bet
$1 Twelve bet (using 30 to 1 payoff)
5 ways to roll 6 and win $34 (that's $35 win on Place 6 minus $1 loss on Twelve) = $170
1 way to roll 12 and win $30 = $30
6 ways to roll 7 and lose $31 = -$186
24 ways to roll any other number and lose $1 = -$24
Total = -$10
The edge per roll is ( $30 * ( ( .20/13.20 ) / ( 36/11 ) ) + $1 * ( 5/36 ) ) / ( $31 )
= ( .0046296296 * $30 + .1388888 * $1 ) / $31
= 0.896% composite edge per roll
Sounds pretty terrible to me. I can't remember the last time I bet a prop bet on a craps table.
Quote: NowTheSerpentIf we're talking EV per bet resolved then the total amount bet would be $30*11 + $1*36 = $366 and a total loss of $10 would give an EV = -2.7322%.
Yes of course, I agree! That's the correct way to account for the action, but you missed my point. I was using Ahigh's method to illustrate his erroneous reasoning. Whenever one of his wagers resolves, he includes ALL of his other wagers on the table regardless of whether or not they also resolved. In my example the Twelve resolves on every roll and therefore Ahigh would have us include the full amount wagered on all bets as having had action on every roll: hence, 36 * 31 = 1116 and therefore -10 / 1116 = 0.896%
*If Steen is not a Craps Expert, then there are no Craps Experts
*Do Sally* and Aaron know who he is?
*after musing many times over people who post about bet combinations, the common factor seems to be smoke and mirrors
*some posters claim to be able to beat the casino with a betting system
*many others just try to claim there is a virtue in reducing variance in neg-expectation at the cost of much more action at -EV
*in this thread, at least there is none of that
*but I would say there is smoke and mirrors
*my motto: always return to certainty about one thing: in negative expectation, you can dicker with the HE, but always at the cost of increased EV. (**)
Quote: AhighI'm not dodging anything. The thing that is being argued is what is considered a valid bet and what is not. If all the discussions about house edge were only compared in the domain of edge per roll, so many mistakes like the mistakes that you made would not occur.
Well, you failed to answer the questions - that's a dodge. I completely disagree about your edge per roll claim, but as I said before, the correct figures can be derived using either method. And what do you mean MY mistakes? So far, I've not offered any calculations using my own methods. I've simply used YOUR method to illustrate the paradox you created and then asked you to explain it. Or are you referring yet again to the misplaced decimal point? Are you suggesting that using edge per roll would've prevented that?
Quote: AhighJust like Sally, I feel that the attack that is being made on me, in this instance, and in others, stems from the fact that people simply cannot understand things that are outside their current domain of accepted knowledge.
I assure you that Sally and I have not conspired against you - you're being paranoid. I'm not attacking you. For all I know you're a nice guy. I'm just disagreeing with (attacking) your calculation of the house edge.
Quote: AhighThe specific instance of refusing that I can have a bet that resolves in the case of either a six or an eight or a seven rolling is the sticking point for most people.
I never said you couldn't have such a bet. You can define your bets any way that you like and account for them using whatever hocus pocus reasoning you deem appropriate. I simply object to you trying to place your edge on a par with the standard edge (house advantage) and implying that a cleverly crafted combination can yield an edge that's lower than the edge of any of the individually included bets. Regardless of how you define your wagers, you can't change the fact that the house has already defined them and will pay and confiscate them according to THEIR definition.
When a gambler wants to know which bets to make vis-a-vis the lowest house edge, your method will lead him/her astray.
Quote: AhighYou and Sally are alike in the sense that you argue that if there are two boxes on the felt where two halves of your bet must be placed that it cannot be a single resolution.
<snip>
Limiting the views on how the game can be played is one of the most effective mechanisms that a highly skilled crew can quickly separate money from the players.
Funny, I would say that deluding people about the true house edge (as you have) is a bigger problem.
Quote: AhighSelling horrible bets and encouraging the player to continue playing as long as possible is the backbone of how money is made.
My friend it's YOU who are selling horrible bets by way of your misguided calculations. I personally would never suggest to anyone that betting on the Twelve would yield a lower edge. But your method suggests that it would!!! That's what I keep trying to point out and which you have yet to properly address.
Quote: AhighIf you only want to gamble (rather than pay to play the game) fewer rolls is ALWAYS better. And knowing your edge per roll and getting your goal accomplished quickly is the most effective way to reach a decisive win or loss point and consider your gamble successful or a failure.
Fewer rolls are ALWAYS better? Well then, you should've agreed that the Place6/Twelve combination was superior because it's guaranteed on average to resolve quicker than what you offered.
Quote: AhighThe edge per roll is ( $30 * ( ( .20/13.20 ) / ( 36/11 ) ) + $1 * ( 5/36 ) ) / ( $31 )
= ( .0046296296 * $30 + .1388888 * $1 ) / $31
= 0.896% composite edge per roll
Was there some point to this calculation? You just derived and repeated the same 0.896% answer that I gave.
Quote: AhighSounds pretty terrible to me. I can't remember the last time I bet a prop bet on a craps table.
I wouldn't bet it either, but I wouldn't have known that from using your method of determining the edge. The point is that the percentage here is lower than what you posted for the Place6/Place8 combo. Why is a 0.896% edge worse to you than a 1.04% edge?
Quote: SteenI wouldn't bet it either, but I wouldn't have known that from using your method of determining the edge. The point is that the percentage here is lower than what you posted for the Place6/Place8 combo. Why is a 0.896% edge worse to you than a 1.04% edge?
Not per roll.
Again, per roll and done.
sure you canQuote: AhighI can't remember the last time I bet a prop bet on a craps table.
do tell
added: Thank You
it seems to me you should be making many of those with you're shooting skills
from many of your past posts like this one of many many
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/big-wins/3665-another-big-craps-win/2/#post42457
"I tried and hit more hardways and pairs than ever."
"I did all of this on my first roll and in a very deliberate and verbal way."
in my opinion, you have an advantage (from your videos and dice roll files) and fail to bet it (the advantage)
what does that us us all (except you)
edge per roll and done = x
you show edge per bet resolved too (no know whys) = y
ev per roll
x=y
this is a weird question about odds
Sally
In that post, you claimed:
Quote: AhighThis bet is not marked independently on the felt, but it can be had. $12 pays $7. You win ten out of sixteen times on average. The bet lasts for 36/16 rolls (2.25 rolls) and goes very quickly. The edge per resolution is lower than betting only the six or only the eight because of the fewer number of rolls.
The edge is $0.20 / $19.20 = 1.0416%
Notice those words there, "edge per resolution"? You state that your "edge per resolution" is lower than betting only the six or eight. And indeed, everyone can see that 1.0416 is lower than the standard per resolution edge of 1.52%.
So, using your method, I computed a per resolution edge (which due to the action on the Twelve is the same as per roll) of 0.896%. This is clearly lower than 1.0416%.
The felt and the bets associated with various places that chips can be put on the felt and the higher pays that go with the higher house edge bets are designed to enable people to make bad decisions about what to bet on in my opinion.
That's why I generally only bet bets that have a house edge of 0.5% or lower per roll. No matter how much action I have on the felt, I like to keep it this way.
That's all that I'm saying about "edge per roll and done" versus arguing about resolutions.
Defining the edges per resolved bet for the bets marked on the felt is interesting for a beginner who is playing the way that a new player would play. But once you get past that and you want to play another way besides the proper math way to play the game, I find plenty of variety in how I can play the game by combining bets that have edges of 0.5% or lower per roll and coming up with things that are fun for me.
Quote: AhighIf I am comparing one bet or combination of bets to another bet or combination of bets for the cost, I always convert to the same domain, which is the edge per roll.
Always? Thats not true at all. You didn't convert to edge per roll in the post I quoted. You wrote edge per resolution. Let's just admit that you can't explain why Place6/Twelve has a lower edge than Place6/Place8 when compared using your method.
Quote: SteenAlways? Thats not true at all. You didn't convert to edge per roll in the post I quoted. You wrote edge per resolution. Let's just admit that you can't explain why Place6/Twelve has a lower edge than Place6/Place8 when compared using your method.
Yes always. It is true. If I compare one bet to another, I compare in the domain of edge per roll.
When I post up a bet with an edge per resolution and I calculate the edge per resolution for a bet that you can hit a six or an eight before a seven and I don't compare it to anything, but instead I calculate the edge per resolution for this bet that is not marked on the felt at all, that is not a comparison. That is an explanation of a bet along with giving the edge per resolution of that bet and instructing a player how they can achieve this bet including the instructions for taking the bet down, which is a necessary component of taking the bet (taking it down).
Most people talk about edge per resolved bet on the six without explaining you have to take the damn thing down.
I think I was much more clear than most people who have no clue that when you leave a bet up every single time it "resolves" that's hardly any resolution in the world that I live in.
Quote: AhighYes always. It is true. If I compare one bet to another, I compare in the domain of edge per roll.
When I post up a bet with an edge per resolution and I calculate the edge per resolution for a bet that you can hit a six or an eight before a seven and I don't compare it to anything, but instead I calculate the edge per resolution for this bet that is not marked on the felt at all, that is not a comparison. That is an explanation of a bet along with giving the edge per resolution of that bet and instructing a player how they can achieve this bet including the instructions for taking the bet down, which is a necessary component of taking the bet (taking it down).
Most people talk about edge per resolved bet on the six without explaining you have to take the damn thing down.
I think I was much more clear than most people who have no clue that when you leave a bet up every single time it "resolves" that's hardly any resolution in the world that I live in.
Pure hogwash. You have no clue what you're doing.
Quote: SteenPure hogwash. You have no clue what you're doing.
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com
This is your website right?
I would think you'd be a little bit more restrained with insults.
StopQuote: AhighI think I was much more clear than most people who have no clue that
when you leave a bet up every single time it "resolves" that's hardly any resolution in the world that I live in.
This is
hehe
way way better (and more clever)
than your pass line bet thaaaat magically turns into a put bet the moment a point is established
hehe
resolves = win, lose or draw
hehehehe said
Steen +1
Quote: Ahighhttp://www.cloudcitysoftware.com
This is your website right?
I would think you'd be a little bit more restrained with insults.
Is that a threat? Should I be afraid to disagree with you? Am I not allowed to characterize your arguments as I see them just because I have a web site? Or perhaps you just want me to go away because I exposed you?
My comment applies to the arguments you've posted here and I stand by it. It was no personal insult of any kind.
You object to my qualification of your argument as hogwash yet you accused Sally and me as being incapable of understanding things outside our current domain of accepted knowledge.
If you can't take it then don't dish it out.
Shame on you Mr. Ahigh.
Quote: SteenPure hogwash. You have no clue what you're doing.
I don't know about that when it comes to knowing what the edge on a bet is I would go with Ahigh. He may look at it differently, but isn't that what we all should be doing?
well putQuote: superrickI don't know about that when it comes to knowing what the edge on a bet is
you are in the majority
only a small few know about edge and it does not stop the rest from betting
sweetQuote: superrickI would go with Ahigh.
Ahigh +1
for the Wizard's Craps challenge
Ahigh (Ahigh +1) choooose to make bets bucking a hefty -1.67% edge (gambler)
He passed on the -0.327% offer (maybe too low)
only if you are gambling with my moneyQuote: superrickHe may look at it differently, but isn't that what we all should be doing?
I know you beat the game with knowledge and skill when your betting
what say ye Marty?
look at it differently
Quote: superrickI don't know about that when it comes to knowing what the edge on a bet is I would go with Ahigh. He may look at it differently, but isn't that what we all should be doing?
Really? So you buy the argument that a Place6-Place8 combo yields a lower house advantage than either bet alone? Do you realize that this argument applies to almost ANY combination of bets on the table? This makes craps bets synergistic! Since Ahigh refuses, perhaps you can explain why this makes sense?
If you're sold on the process, then you must also buy the argument that Place6-Twleve is also lower than either bet alone and also lower than the Place6-Place8 combo. Perhaps you can explain this paradox? If the Twelve has a higher individual edge than Place8 then how can it yield a lower edge when combined with Place6? (lower than Place6 alone)
Quote: SteenReally? So you buy the argument that a Place6-Place8 combo yields a lower house advantage than either bet alone? Do you realize that this argument applies to ANY combination of bets on the table? This makes craps bets synergistic! Since Ahigh refuses, perhaps you can explain why this makes sense?
Now admittedly, I'm not a math guy, but I think you better go back and do the math on combining the place six and place eight together! The same thing with any box numbers when your combining them with their sister number! The only problem with that is, you also have to look at your ROI, when you combine two box numbers!
Now I'm sure that one of the math guys can explain it to you, so I will let them do it. By the way we are not talking about anything other then the box numbers! The argument does not apply to any combination of other bets, as far as I'm concerned. But I'm sure you could do the same thing with the 3 and 11 or even the aces and the twelve, because they are sister numbers! Again your ROI would be what might stop you, or the fact that they are prop bets!
Quote: SteenReally? So you buy the argument that a Place6-Place8 combo yields a lower house advantage than either bet alone?
It's not even an argument. It a fact. When you lower the number of rolls to resolve a bet, you lower the edge per resolution. The edge per roll doesn't change at all.
You do understand that a resolution of a bet depends on the definition of the bet. And the definition of the bet defines the number of rolls for the bet.
I defined the bet to be a bet that you can roll a six or an eight before a seven. That bet lasts 36/16 or 2.25 rolls. You do understand that right? Or do you not? It's not two bets, it's one bet. The bet is that you can roll a six or an eight before a seven. Not one bet on the six and one bet on the eight. You gotta get past that.
This is in fact a single bet. You can in fact obtain this single bet just as easily as you can obtain a bet that has a special little box on the felt.
I continue to be entertained by you and by Sally who refuse to believe that such bets with shorter numbers of rolls per resolution can yield lower edge per resolution via the mechanism of having fewer rolls per resolution.
Sally left the forum, ultimately, for her inability to admit she was wrong on this subject.
I never said that betting both the six and the eight was any better than betting only one. To compare them (myself) I consider the random event the throw of the dice. And for that reason, when I compare bets, I look at the edge per roll and the edge per roll only.
I never even compared any bets. I simply explained the edge per resolution for this bet. And I intentionally did this because people like you and people like Sally fail to understand this stuff. I find it thoroughly entertaining listening to you guys go bonkers over your failure to understand what I am saying and claiming that I don't know what I am talking about.
You guys (both of you) are the ones failing to know. You have lacked very clearly the distinction that I have identified that this is a bet. Not two bets. A bet.
Quote: mustangsallyfor the Wizard's Craps challenge
Ahigh (Ahigh +1) choooose to make bets bucking a hefty -1.67% edge (gambler)
He passed on the -0.327% offer (maybe too low)
I am not sure what you're talking about but Michael offered me $10 for every time I rolled a non-seven in exchange for losing $51 for every seven..
That's $10 * 5/6 - $51 * 1/6 = $50/6 - $51/6 = -$1/6 = $0.16 average cost per roll.
Compare that to what I suggested which was -$10 * 5/6 + $49 * 1/6 = -$50/6 + $49/6 = -$1/6 = $0.16 average cost per roll
In the one instance (I took) I am betting $10 to win $49 and losing $1. $1 / ( $10 + $50 ) = 1.6666% shackleford advantage
In the other instance originally suggested I would have bet $51 to win $10. $1 / ( $50 + $10 ) = 1.6666% shackleford advantage
I didn't pass on any lower edge offers. It was the Shack who passed claiming that the edge was too thin for him. For 89 rolls, luck was all that mattered. It would be like me saying "oh I can't make it because I can't afford the gas money."
But we are all different. Shackleford obsesses over the edge because that's who he is. I did it because it was fun, not because I was ignorant of the edge that ended up costing me $9 (big whoop!).
Do you know the ratio of the edge to the amount Shackleford won on that challenge? That's the more worthy subject to talk about in my opinion.
Quote: mustangsallyStop
This is
hehe
way way better (and more clever)
than your pass line bet thaaaat magically turns into a put bet the moment a point is established
hehe
resolves = win, lose or draw
hehehehe said
Steen +1
Public mockery is an insult. The only thing that keeps it from being more insulting is your failure to comprehend.
Eventually you may get it. I really do wish you to have the light bulb moment when you realize that you can take bets with the casino that are not marked on the felt by placing multiple bets with low edges per roll and taking them down before the defined resolution through the process of defining your own bets.
The practicality of this is only as applicable as your desire to win less than the amount you want to risk. Much like laying numbers, only in fewer rolls, you can win a small fraction of your risked money with a lower edge that laying a number with the vig up front.
$110 even with vig on the win resolves with a pretty low edge. Not a bad hit-and-run when you can be happy with $35 to $49 profit whichever comes first. Hit and quit. It only costs you a buck to get paid for the 16 out of 22 chance to win.
You have to look at it as a single bet, not a strategy for it to make sense though. Anything you do over and over with that much action, those bucks add up and eclipse your chance to win.
Strategies versus bets are two different stories!
Strategies you should look at edge per roll if you have the goal to go through 100 rolls or more. That is going to cost you in the long run.
But plenty of people want a single bet. And there are many low edge bets that can be had if you know what you're doing on craps and you do want to hit it and quit it.
Quote: superrickNow admittedly, I'm not a math guy, but I think you better go back and do the math on combining the place six and place eight together!
Interesting ... you're not a math guy and can't explain it but you nonetheless believe it and are therefore convinced that I should go back and redo it.
Quote: superrickThe same thing with any box numbers when your combining them with their sister number!
Oh is it SISTER numbers that makes the combinations special? So the numbers know when their sisters are being wagered and they conspire to win more often or lose less often? So THAT'S how they have a lower edge together! I honestly didn't know that. Hmmm, sisters ...
Quote: superrickThe only problem with that is, you also have to look at your ROI, when you combine two box numbers!
You mean the sisters have problems?
Quote: superrickNow I'm sure that one of the math guys can explain it to you, so I will let them do it.
By all means, let one of the math guys explain it to me. That would be Ahigh, right?
Sorry superrick, I mean no disrespect but you haven't convinced me.
