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mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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August 19th, 2014 at 9:27:12 PM permalink
Thank You
I am the Queen of Gambling
Quote: Ahigh

You guys: argue argue argue argue

thanks for your opinion
where is the arguing exactly
no question marks exposed in this thread

in another opinion, you are very good ask NOT answering simple questions posed to you

I gather you are taking a hammer now to your simulation code as it has to be the only reason you have not posted your results
from your simulation you said would be done soon.
Quote: Ahigh

Me: Edge per roll and done

thanks for another opinion on your method

you post many times edge per bet resolved
many many times confusing you're readers, in my opinion


EV rules (a real craps expert shows the EV in their work)
HE sucks (one that is not a craps expert only talks about HE)
that is how one can tell (not Adele)

still an opinion
no
what is the EV per roll for
1) your $6 place 6 and 8 that gets taken down after a win
that bet NOT on the felt
2) verses a $12 place 8 always working and only replaced on a loss
verses
3) placing the 6 and 8 for $6 dollars and never working on the come out roll

are they all the same
Is the house edge different because of the rolls to resolve the bet or the average bet in action per roll is different or exactly what

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
Joined: Sep 30, 2011
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August 19th, 2014 at 9:37:10 PM permalink
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Steen
Steen
Joined: Apr 7, 2014
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August 19th, 2014 at 11:17:25 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

You guys: argue argue argue argue



Another dodge. You don't argue, right? You ASSERT and others must ACCEPT! Regardless of what we call it, you still haven't answered those questions. I guess that means you can't explain the paradox.

Quote: Ahigh

Me: Edge per roll and done



This still misses the point. This is not a question of "per roll" versus "per decision". It's a matter of what constitutes action and should be included in the calculations. Both "per roll" and "per decision" calculations can yield correct answers when you properly account for the action.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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August 19th, 2014 at 11:28:12 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

You guys: argue argue argue argue
Me: Edge per roll and done



Now follow that same strategy in here, PLEASE !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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August 20th, 2014 at 1:23:56 AM permalink
Quote: Steen

Another dodge. You don't argue, right? You ASSERT and others must ACCEPT! Regardless of what we call it, you still haven't answered those questions. I guess that means you can't explain the paradox.



This still misses the point. This is not a question of "per roll" versus "per decision". It's a matter of what constitutes action and should be included in the calculations. Both "per roll" and "per decision" calculations can yield correct answers when you properly account for the action.



I'm not dodging anything. The thing that is being argued is what is considered a valid bet and what is not. If all the discussions about house edge were only compared in the domain of edge per roll, so many mistakes like the mistakes that you made would not occur.

Just like Sally, I feel that the attack that is being made on me, in this instance, and in others, stems from the fact that people simply cannot understand things that are outside their current domain of accepted knowledge.

The specific instance of refusing that I can have a bet that resolves in the case of either a six or an eight or a seven rolling is the sticking point for most people.

You and Sally are alike in the sense that you argue that if there are two boxes on the felt where two halves of your bet must be placed that it cannot be a single resolution.

That's a very limited perspective. But for such a limited perspective, simply consider the edge per roll and no other edge and comparisons are very simple. Each and every bet is a bet on a single throw of the dice and you can consider each throw a resolution.

If you want to count resolved bets for the boxes marked on the felt and not consider resolved bets that you construct on your own volition, you are simply limiting your view on how the game may be played.

It's just my view that simply eliminating special conditions for edges per resolution but only for bets that are marked on the felt is just a wee bit arbitrary for someone who understands the various ways that the game can be played.

Limiting the views on how the game can be played is one of the most effective mechanisms that a highly skilled crew can quickly separate money from the players. Selling horrible bets and encouraging the player to continue playing as long as possible is the backbone of how money is made.

If you only want to gamble (rather than pay to play the game) fewer rolls is ALWAYS better. And knowing your edge per roll and getting your goal accomplished quickly is the most effective way to reach a decisive win or loss point and consider your gamble successful or a failure.

More and more rolls simply reduces further and further your chance to meet your win goals, no matter how modest they may be.
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
Joined: Sep 30, 2011
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August 20th, 2014 at 1:45:30 AM permalink
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Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
  • Threads: 86
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August 20th, 2014 at 2:04:38 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

Thank You
I am the Queen of Gamblingthanks for your opinion
where is the arguing exactly
no question marks exposed in this thread

in another opinion, you are very good ask NOT answering simple questions posed to you

I gather you are taking a hammer now to your simulation code as it has to be the only reason you have not posted your results
from your simulation you said would be done soon.
thanks for another opinion on your method

you post many times edge per bet resolved
many many times confusing you're readers, in my opinion


EV rules (a real craps expert shows the EV in their work)
HE sucks (one that is not a craps expert only talks about HE)
that is how one can tell (not Adele)

still an opinion
no

what is the EV per roll for
1) your $6 place 6 and 8 that gets taken down after a win
that bet NOT on the felt
2) verses a $12 place 8 always working and only replaced on a loss
verses
3) placing the 6 and 8 for $6 dollars and never working on the come out roll

are they all the same
Is the house edge different because of the rolls to resolve the bet or the average bet in action per roll is different or exactly what

Sally



Here's the thing, Sally. I don't even feel like responding to your rude posts. It has nothing to do with anything technical and everything to do with me being angry about the rude way that you address me.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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August 20th, 2014 at 2:11:54 AM permalink
Quote: Steen

Let me offer another example.

$30 Place 6 bet
$1 Twelve bet (using 30 to 1 payoff)

5 ways to roll 6 and win $34 (that's $35 win on Place 6 minus $1 loss on Twelve) = $170
1 way to roll 12 and win $30 = $30
6 ways to roll 7 and lose $31 = -$186
24 ways to roll any other number and lose $1 = -$24

Total = -$10



The edge per roll is ( $30 * ( ( .20/13.20 ) / ( 36/11 ) ) + $1 * ( 5/36 ) ) / ( $31 )

= ( .0046296296 * $30 + .1388888 * $1 ) / $31

= 0.896% composite edge per roll

Sounds pretty terrible to me. I can't remember the last time I bet a prop bet on a craps table.
Steen
Steen
Joined: Apr 7, 2014
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August 20th, 2014 at 3:07:49 AM permalink
Quote: NowTheSerpent

If we're talking EV per bet resolved then the total amount bet would be $30*11 + $1*36 = $366 and a total loss of $10 would give an EV = -2.7322%.



Yes of course, I agree! That's the correct way to account for the action, but you missed my point. I was using Ahigh's method to illustrate his erroneous reasoning. Whenever one of his wagers resolves, he includes ALL of his other wagers on the table regardless of whether or not they also resolved. In my example the Twelve resolves on every roll and therefore Ahigh would have us include the full amount wagered on all bets as having had action on every roll: hence, 36 * 31 = 1116 and therefore -10 / 1116 = 0.896%
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 307
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August 20th, 2014 at 3:23:19 AM permalink
my 2 cents my thoughts worth maybe a plugged nickle

*If Steen is not a Craps Expert, then there are no Craps Experts
*Do Sally* and Aaron know who he is?
*after musing many times over people who post about bet combinations, the common factor seems to be smoke and mirrors
*some posters claim to be able to beat the casino with a betting system
*many others just try to claim there is a virtue in reducing variance in neg-expectation at the cost of much more action at -EV
*in this thread, at least there is none of that
*but I would say there is smoke and mirrors
*my motto: always return to certainty about one thing: in negative expectation, you can dicker with the HE, but always at the cost of increased EV. (**)

Oh, I forgot! Another male to be torn to shreds

the sole exception is free odds, although that is a combination added without negative expectation
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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