How often do dealers make mistakes with don't bets

I don't gamble much (will be in Vegas in 1 week!!!) but the few times I have played craps on the don't side, the dealers have made 2 mistakes when they forgot to take my bet with a 7 on the come-out roll.

Has this happened to anyone else? How often do dealers forget to take bets when the don't loses?

I wonder when betting the don't pass with continual don't come bets, how much you can improve your edge do to dealer mistakes. Just one mistake every hour would probably make it a positive expectation game!

Continuous DC bets "wake up" the dealer to your dont-action. Most mistakes occur when there's a player on the DP who isn't constantly "doing stuff".... Helps to be on a real busy table.

Quote: longtimelancer

I wonder when betting the don't pass with continual don't come bets, how much you can improve your edge do to dealer mistakes. Just one mistake every hour would probably make it a positive expectation game!

If Craps is considered as deciding 48 Pass/Don't Pass bets per hour, (Presumably, this will be fewer at a full table and dealer mistakes will be more likely) then you would bet the Don't and have a House Edge of 1.36% per bet made, and 1.40% per bet resolved.

Of these 48 bets, an expected 1.33 bets will not resolve because of Midnight on the Come Out, thus, you will have 46.67 expected resolved bets.

If you bet $5 on every bet, and 46.67 bets are resolved per hour, then 46.67 * 5 * .014 = an expected loss of $3.2669 per hour.

Because of this, with $5 bets, you are expected to play 5/3.2669 = 1.5305 hours, or a little over an hour and a half, before you have lost $5.00 betting Don't Pass only.

Thus, if you are flat-betting, and you expect that the dealer will fail to collect at least one losing Don't Pass bet every hour-and-a-half, then you would be playing with a very slight percentage advantage, but a pretty substantial $$$ advantage if betting a good bit, though the dealers at the higher Min/Max Tables are going to be more experienced and less likely to make mistakes. Dealers will also be more likely to pay attention to your action if you are one of the higher bettors at the table.

If you expect that one mistake will be made every hour, then you would bet approximately $233.35 per hour, and:

233.35 - 3.2669 + 5 = $235.0831

Which represents an effective profit of $1.7331/hour and an effective player edge of 235.0831/233.35 = 1.007427 or 0.7427%.

The more mistakes, the greater the edge, the fewer mistakes, the less the edge or back to a House Advantage.

Finally, decisions-per-hour will be reduced the more full the table, however, mistakes will be more likely because the dealers have more to do. Difficult, if not impossible, to quantify due to insufficient information.

Is 48 Come out rolls per hour the right number? That sounds awfully high, given that getting 60 rolls per hour on a table is pretty hard to do.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Is 48 Come out rolls per hour the right number? That sounds awfully high, given that getting 60 rolls per hour on a table is pretty hard to do.

https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/general/

29.6% of all rolls are Come Out rolls:

Players: 1, Rolls 249, Hands: 249 * .296 = 73.7

Players: 3, Rolls, 216, Hands: 216 * .296 = 63.9

Players: 5, Rolls, 144, Hands: 144 * .296 = 42.6

Players: 7, Rolls, 135, Hands: 135 * .296 = 40

Players: 9, Rolls, 123, Hands: 123 * .296 = 36.4

Players: 11, Rolls 102, Hands: 102 * .296 = 30.2

Anyone can use the formula I demonstrated above and re-calculate the hourly loss and figure out however many mistakes per hour they want to assume.

The original 48 that I used was based on the Wizard's rating thing for comp purposes, which actually would include some single-roll resolution bets now that I have re-read that. Either way, it could be 48 or more depending on the number of people at the table.

newer dealers practice so much on place bets that they suffer with come bets and lose track of the don'ts. A good newer dealer should be verbally talking his don't action.

Thanks for the link, and I see Wiz cited the source for his data as Casino Operations Management by Jim Kilby.
Maybe some of the craps dealers can weigh in here. Does anyone who plays craps believe you can roll 249 times an hour as a single player, making Place/Buy/PL bets?

I played on a table with 3 players (2 women were on the table, and I joined them). They were known locals, and the dealer told me it was going to be a fast game. Not an issue for me. I bet across and press to normal amounts with winnings, so pretty standard stuff. And those dice were flying! Many times I had to leave my paid winnings sitting on the felt because the dice were already in the shooter's hand. If there had been 2 players betting across on my end, it would have slowed the game down. Could we have been averaging a roll every 17 seconds? Maybe, but I doubt it.
A stick and dealer changes every 20 minutes takes a little bit of time. And there was a lot of socializing going on too, so there were some pauses.

And once you get to 11 players, with all of the payouts, you will be lucky to get a roll off every minute. No way are you getting 102 rolls an hour with 11 players on a table, unless there is no betting other than PL.

So if 30% of all rolls are come out rolls, at 60 rolls per hour that would be 18 come out rolls, round up to 20 per hour. That seems much more reasonable.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Thanks for the link, and I see Wiz cited the source for his data as Casino Operations Management by Jim Kilby.
Maybe some of the craps dealers can weigh in here. Does anyone who plays craps believe you can roll 249 times an hour as a single player, making Place/Buy/PL bets?

So if 30% of all rolls are come out rolls, at 60 rolls per hour that would be 18 come out rolls, round up to 20 per hour. That seems much more reasonable.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, just stating what my source was. Perhaps I'll time it one day, less than one roll per minute seems like it would be extremely slow, though.

I don't know if these numbers assume Place bets, or not, it's hard to say.

Personally, I also don't think nearly one roll every fifteen seconds is completely unreasonable for a solo player, even with a couple of Place Bets.

Quote: Mission146

I don't necessarily disagree with you, just stating what my source was. Perhaps I'll time it one day, less than one roll per minute seems like it would be extremely slow, though.

I don't know if these numbers assume Place bets, or not, it's hard to say.

Personally, I also don't think nearly one roll every fifteen seconds is completely unreasonable for a solo player, even with a couple of Place Bets.

For short periods of time I agree, but averaging a roll every 15 seconds for 1 hour straight is something else. You have to deal with stick changes, clearing of all bets on 7 outs, pressing of bets, player indecision, and gabbing, to name a few distractions. Looking at other threads, the general rule of thumb has been to assume 60 to 120 rolls per hour, which I think is pretty close to normal conditions. A single player could get close to 150-180 I would guess, but I can't believe it would ever get over 200.

I have no data to back up my claims though, so until I get a chance to time some rolls, I will let this topic drop. I would have to assume the author of the book is more knowledgeable of the subject matter than I am, although that could be a bad assumption. Wouldn't be the first time a casino insider knew less about a game than an outsider.

Some dealers just don't learn much about the Donts.

One impatient trainee at a low level joint near the airport actually took a razor and scraped off the letters "DontPass" on the felt. It left a blank box there and he hoped no one would use it if the letters were gone.

So making mistakes with it can be understood if dealers usually encounter only Pass line bets.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Does anyone who plays craps believe you can roll [at these speeds?]

It seems unrealistic to me as well. I kind of put it down as the theoretically fastest number obtainable outside of some kind of contest to try to go even faster. My 2 cents.

PS: to hope for consistent dealer mistakes has to be the lamest approach to AP imaginable IMO. The most that could be hoped for is a balance between errors in your favor vis a vis errors that favor the house. Unless you want to count card flashers or such. IMO again.

Quote: ontariodealer

Newer dealers practice so much on place bets that they suffer with come bets and lose track of the don'ts. A good newer dealer should be verbally talking his don't action.

Or at least talking it through to themselves or the box. A far larger problem for don't come bettors is not moving the bet behind the line.

And as for rolls per hour, laying even slightly different odds against the numbers (even though the payouts are correct) will slow down even a table with four or five players to somewhere close to 30 hands an hour. Especially with novice or not-so-competent dealers.

This just happened to me yesterday at Hollywood Casino near Harrisburg.

I was placing single $15 Don’t Come bets after the shooters established their points and then,
depending what number my DC bet moved to, placed single odds.

I’m pretty sure there were 10 to 12 people at the table but I was the only playing Don’t.

At one point, I had a DC on the 5. The shooter had made his point, established a new point, and then seven’d-out.
The dealer made a sweeping motion, with his hands, to gather the chips in the Place Bet area -- including my $15 DC bet.

I yelled “Hey. I had a $15 DC on the 5.” I could tell the dealer was embarrassed. He said, “That’s right, that’s right.”
and looked at the Box Man. The Box Man nodded his head and I was paid.

Then, not long after, he did the same thing but caught himself before I had a chance to chirp at him.
I’m pretty sure he was new. I tipped him a red chip, anyway, when I cashed-out.

Saw something incredible last night. This guy put his entire stack of green chips (probably $300 or $400) on the don't pass. He was doing well and then they started making points, so maybe he decided to go all in to win his money back. But anyways he puts a stack of green on the don't pass and the shooter rolls a 7 on the come out roll. The dealer instead of taking or "locking up" the stack of green mistakenly pays the shooter as if he'd just won on aces or 3 craps. I didn't say anything. Anyways this guy puts the stack of green in his rack and puts a quarter back on the don't pass and then proceeds to laugh. I wasn't sure if I should say something or not, but I ended up keeping my mouth shut.

This same dealer made a mistake a few months back that cost me $75, I put a black chip on the don't pass as that was all I had and told him I only wanted a quarter on. He completely ignored me and I said again that I wanted a quarter and he just looked at me. I then assumed I would get change after the roll and the shooter rolled a 7 and I lost the $100 and when I complained the dealer denied that I asked him to put a quarter on the don't. Anyways that's water under the bridge at this point, but man what a screw up that he made on the don't pass last night.

1. IMO you were right to not say anything; it does not concern you.

2. I would never put chips in a betting position that I did not want bet. I'm always very careful about this. It's not even clear that the dealer here made a mistake; you never got a verbal confirmation. I would toss him the black chip and tell him that I need green.

A few days ago, I was done with my session. I started at $100 and made it to about +$90. So I pulled a $10 out of my wallet, put it on the come and stacked my $190 in chips on top of the come and I said, "I'm done that's close enough to double."

The dealer says, "come bet?" I said, "no, no action, color."

The dealer starts laughing and says, "I never know with you." He then goes on to explain to another customer that I once made a $750 come bet and rolled ace-deuce and lost the bet.

I laughed, and that was about it. So the next thing I know, he stacks up four green chips on the eight after the eight rolls, and I tell him, "no I want black."

He then puts two blacks on the eight.

The seven rolls, and he tosses the two black chips back towards the bank (there was no stack of black.)

I then say, "hey I'm waiting for my color."

Everyone at the table knew I said "no action color" but he was thinking about me making big come bets instead of what I said, and was already having my two black traveled to the eight.

I then had to deal with everybody jabbing me that I was taking a shot, and as soon as the dealer left, they confided that they knew he made the mistake all along, but I was all, "how in the hell? what the hell?" etc.

The mistakes are not always to your benefit.

Yesterday, I made a $250 DC bet and won that after it traveled to the ten. I do make big come and don't come bets sometimes, and dealers do sometimes make mistakes too.

Sometimes they don't notice a DC and you have to remind them to move it behind.

I have also done lay bets where they have paid even money (as in paid like a DC bet even though it had a lay lammer).

I always correct dealers mistakes though, whether in my favor or not. I have made big deals out of dealer mistakes that were not in my favor, but where I gamble, there really aren't a ton of mistakes being made.

Quote: guitarmandp

Saw something incredible last night. This guy put his entire stack of green chips (probably $300 or $400) on the don't pass. He was doing well and then they started making points, so maybe he decided to go all in to win his money back. But anyways he puts a stack of green on the don't pass and the shooter rolls a 7 on the come out roll. The dealer instead of taking or "locking up" the stack of green mistakenly pays the shooter as if he'd just won on aces or 3 craps. I didn't say anything. Anyways this guy puts the stack of green in his rack and puts a quarter back on the don't pass and then proceeds to laugh. I wasn't sure if I should say something or not, but I ended up keeping my mouth shut.

This same dealer made a mistake a few months back that cost me $75, I put a black chip on the don't pass as that was all I had and told him I only wanted a quarter on. He completely ignored me and I said again that I wanted a quarter and he just looked at me. I then assumed I would get change after the roll and the shooter rolled a 7 and I lost the $100 and when I complained the dealer denied that I asked him to put a quarter on the don't. Anyways that's water under the bridge at this point, but man what a screw up that he made on the don't pass last night.

That's on the house to correct, and in many cases, they will. A few weeks ago, I was dealing Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em, and we have a progressive that pays for a big hand (trips or higher) that a player earns from his/her pocket cards and the flop. Long story short, I went on break, and a dealer who's less skilled with UTH dealt a player quads, paying him $300 on the progressive. The problem? He got quads on the river and only trips on the flop.

I got back and learned of the discrepancy, and my floorperson required the player to return all but the $9 from the trips (state law backs us up on this, but in terms of getting the money back, it sucks, and both my supervisor and I had to eat humble pie for something she had little - and I had nothing - to do with.)

Casino management may approach such a player about returning the money, and charges may be filed, but I wouldn't say a word. It's on them to catch it. That's why they have cameras and security people.

You will get a reputation for not correcting dealer mistakes made in your favor if you gamble with any frequency at the same spot.

I would rather get a reputation for being right and being honest. Especially since I'm such a pain in the ass.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

2. I would never put chips in a betting position that I did not want bet. I'm always very careful about this. It's not even clear that the dealer here made a mistake; you never got a verbal confirmation. I would toss him the black chip and tell him that I need green.

I agree, in that situation I would toss the black in and if I knew I was playing with a good dealer would say "change please, 25 DP." If I didn't know the dealer or had just walked up to the table, I would just ask for change and set up the bet myself.

The best craps dealers start to recognize your betting patterns and will set stuff up for you. For example, say you always play with 3 come bets. You have all 3 set up with odds and one of them hits. A good dealer will make the payoff, leave your base bet in the come box and pay the rest to you, saving you the trouble of setting up your next come bet. Anyway. I love playing with great dealers, but I don't do a good enough job of tipping more for better service. I tend to either tip the same for decent or better service, or nothing for bad/terrible.

Of course if you bet like Ahigh, they will never recognize your patterns, because you don't have any patterns. (Just a friendly jab, Aaron. :) )

Never put chips in a "betting area" when coloring up / coloring down. Wait until the dealer is done doing whatever he's doing, be direct and say what you want. Make all your actions when dice are in the center. It is much appreciated by the dealers, and also ensures the chips you want to color aren't "put into action". It helps to know the dealers' and boxman's name (if there is a box), so you can say "Change please, John" while tossing in 2 blacks. If the dealer or box doesn't respond, tell the boxman what you want, "Robert! No action in the come, change only please." If worst comes to worst (and dice are moving) and dealer/box doesn't respond, PICK UP YOUR MONEY! Same goes if you're making some ballsy play -- "This is all a field bet! $800 in the field is a bet!!" or "This IS a line bet BTW."

If dice are getting shipped to the player and you tell the dealer "$30 six & eight" and don't get a response, ask "Do I have action on $30 six & eight?" or "Is $30 six & eight a bet this roll?"

If you're being an asshole all night, you'll more likely end up on the sort end of the stick. If you're nice and polite, and bet at proper times (dice in center, dealer is done doing whatever he's doing, etc.), they'll more likely side with you.


As far as errors (against you), you should know ahead of time how much you have in action on a number, what it should be pressed to (if you press), and how much you should get back. If you don't know -- don't make the bet!! Watch the dealer making the payoff and make sure the correct amount is setup. Instead of picking up the chips, putting them in your rail and counting them, leave them on the layout for a second and count the payoff. Make sure it's correct before you pick it up. If it's not correct, inform the dealer, "Shouldn't I have gotten X back instead of Y?" I've had this happen a few times. Dealer comes out with $215 instead of $315 on a $270 six place bet has actually happened more than once by different dealers.

I have noticed what seems to be a causal relationship between toking and favorable mistakes.

Quote: MrV

I have noticed what seems to be a causal relationship between toking and favorable mistakes.

Knowingly taking money that does not belong to you as a result of a mistake could still lead to a felony conviction for theft if you intended to benefit from the mistake and knowingly did so.

Correlations between tipping patterns and patterns of mistakes can go on for months before an air-tight case is formed and dealers and players are prosecuted for collusion.

I have seen it happen. Ask around, and you will probably hear stories of who has been prosecuted.

hwccdealer what is your opinion on this same mistake this dealer made on my dad a few months ago. My dad is a seven stars regular and he always bets $270 across and puts down a $30 hard way on whatever the point is. Anyways my dad was at the table (I think I was at the other end) and the shooter made his point with a hard 8. My dad was furious because he was on the hard 4. The reason he was on the hard 4 was because the dealer at the other end of the table mistakenly marked up 4 as the point. The dealers and the boxman said "too bad, we made a mistake and we'll try better next time", my dad went and complained to the floor manager who stood by the boxmen and dealers. My dad demanded to speak to the casino manager and the casino manager checked the survaliance and saw that the point was mistakenly marked 4 and overruled the floor manager, boxmen, and dealers and my dad got paid.

Just curious your perspective since you are a dealer.

Quote: hwccdealer

That's on the house to correct, and in many cases, they will. A few weeks ago, I was dealing Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em, and we have a progressive that pays for a big hand (trips or higher) that a player earns from his/her pocket cards and the flop. Long story short, I went on break, and a dealer who's less skilled with UTH dealt a player quads, paying him $300 on the progressive. The problem? He got quads on the river and only trips on the flop.

I got back and learned of the discrepancy, and my floorperson required the player to return all but the $9 from the trips (state law backs us up on this, but in terms of getting the money back, it sucks, and both my supervisor and I had to eat humble pie for something she had little - and I had nothing - to do with.)

Casino management may approach such a player about returning the money, and charges may be filed, but I wouldn't say a word. It's on them to catch it. That's why they have cameras and security people.

I've been at a table where the Box or the Floor suddenly notices the "hockey pucks" are on two different numbers, they hold the dice and try to figure out who is correct and often ask right then: anyone want adjustments to their bets... then they will resume the game. It is embarassing to the crew at times but things do happen and most dealers will own up to mistakes or ignorance when they don't think someone is taking a shot.

Best thing is to be precise in where you position your chips and make sure the dealer is precise in positioning your stacks that travel.

Sometimes a crew will chide a dealer who is holding things up while he compensates for mistakes for the benefit of the camera but its the right thing for him to do: admit his mistakes and demonstrate the correct payoff for the camera and then send it out. No one really cares if a dealer is making a few errors as long as they are caught and corrected and the game goes on without ridicule or arguments.

Dealers are standing on their feet, work rotating positions, on rotating shifts, occasionally with little notice of changes and little notice of overtime.

Some dealers don't like hearing checq change... but it is proper to be precise in what you are doing just as it is proper for him to be precise in what he is doing. Some dealers don't like to be told what the change is, but I always think verbal precision outweighs imprecision.

Quote: guitarmandp

hwccdealer what is your opinion on this same mistake this dealer made on my dad a few months ago. My dad is a seven stars regular and he always bets $270 across and puts down a $30 hard way on whatever the point is. Anyways my dad was at the table (I think I was at the other end) and the shooter made his point with a hard 8. My dad was furious because he was on the hard 4. The reason he was on the hard 4 was because the dealer at the other end of the table mistakenly marked up 4 as the point. The dealers and the boxman said "too bad, we made a mistake and we'll try better next time", my dad went and complained to the floor manager who stood by the boxmen and dealers. My dad demanded to speak to the casino manager and the casino manager checked the survaliance and saw that the point was mistakenly marked 4 and overruled the floor manager, boxmen, and dealers and my dad got paid.

Just curious your perspective since you are a dealer.

Lemme make sure I understand the story first.

Shooter rolls comeout point - it's an 8. Your dad bets a $30 hard 8 and 270 across (I assume a $60 six, $50 on everything else, $5 covers the vig for the 4 and 10, and $5 change, so $265 across, no point.) Base dealer at the other end accidentally marks up 4, the dealer at your dad's end has a brain fart and decides to follow the lead of the other base dealer, marks up 4, the box and stick also have brain farts and don't correct either base dealer, and collectively they book a hard 4. Your dad's base dealer sets up a $60 8, and either does not take vig (because your dad insisted on a placed 4 and 10 - not bought - or because this casino takes the vig after it's hit, as they do in Mississippi) or asks for an extra $5.

Shooter buckshots the hard 8 - I assume no point because of the collective brain fart of the table.

I'm a little surprised it got all the way up to the casino manager, given that there are a million safeguards for this, not the least of which are players who tell the base dealer, "Hey butthead, the point's 8." The box or the stick should have caught the discrepancy and said, "Something isn't right," and corrected it. That's an awful lot of people falling asleep at the wheel, including the floor supervisor, who probably should have called surveillance in the first place.

The error went against your dad - it was on him to push to get it corrected, and he did. Had it gone the other way and been in his favor, it would have been on the house to correct.

Quote: hwccdealer

That's an awful lot of people falling asleep at the wheel ...

Sure is, but you might be surprised at how often something like that happens. Usually the Box catches it, perhaps after a few rolls, and stops the dice to settle up on just what the point is. But even on a large payout that gets counted out for the camera and is confirmed before being shipped out can be for the wrong amount, so multiple hands and eyes can share a series of momentary lapses.

Quote: hwccdealer

Lemme make sure I understand the story first.

Shooter rolls comeout point - it's an 8. Your dad bets a $30 hard 8 and 270 across (I assume a $60 six, $50 on everything else, $5 covers the vig for the 4 and 10, and $5 change, so $265 across, no point.) Base dealer at the other end accidentally marks up 4, the dealer at your dad's end has a brain fart and decides to follow the lead of the other base dealer, marks up 4, the box and stick also have brain farts and don't correct either base dealer, and collectively they book a hard 4. Your dad's base dealer sets up a $60 8, and either does not take vig (because your dad insisted on a placed 4 and 10 - not bought - or because this casino takes the vig after it's hit, as they do in Mississippi) or asks for an extra $5.

Shooter buckshots the hard 8 - I assume no point because of the collective brain fart of the table.

I'm a little surprised it got all the way up to the casino manager, given that there are a million safeguards for this, not the least of which are players who tell the base dealer, "Hey butthead, the point's 8." The box or the stick should have caught the discrepancy and said, "Something isn't right," and corrected it. That's an awful lot of people falling asleep at the wheel, including the floor supervisor, who probably should have called surveillance in the first place.

The error went against your dad - it was on him to push to get it corrected, and he did. Had it gone the other way and been in his favor, it would have been on the house to correct.

Close but he bet hard 4, because he thought 4 was the point because the dealer mistakenly marked 4 as the point. Then he lost it when they hit a hard 8 and the stickman announced "hard 8 winner" because had the stick person have marked 8 he would have had a hard 8. My dad's betting is predictable, he always bets $270 across, does a $30 hardway (whatever is the point), and then he puts like $50 behind his passline bet and if they roll a lot of numbers he adds chips to his odds.

Anyways he bet a hard 4 because he thought the point was 4, but it was really 8 and they rolled a hard 8.

Anyways he went through a couple people like the box man and the floor man who would not pay him for his hard 8. He went to the casino manager who finally paid him.

My dad is seven stars so I'm not sure if that helps.

Quote: FleaStiff

Sure is, but you might be surprised at how often something like that happens. Usually the Box catches it, perhaps after a few rolls, and stops the dice to settle up on just what the point is. But even on a large payout that gets counted out for the camera and is confirmed before being shipped out can be for the wrong amount, so multiple hands and eyes can share a series of momentary lapses.

I see it happen often enough to watch for it.

I had it happen not long ago on my throw, the base in front of me got it right and marked the 9, the base on the other end marked an 8 and I proceded to roll hoping the crew would fix it soon. After 3 or so rolls I pointed it out, the stick says the point was 8 [ I threw a nine ] first. So the crew follows his lead and move the puck to the 8. At the time I figured no big deal, as I'm more likely to throw an 8 right?

I see dealer mistakes regularly and usually if the money involved is a low enough amount I'm more interested in the flow instead of a hassle and the subsequent chatter to get the game going again.

I may have to reserve this in my memory in the right instance and make them re-roll the tape as a learning lesson for the house. I already sometime back quit picking up dice for them when they go off the table unless I threw them and want same die returned and no one else can bend over.

What I think I've been seeing is there is usually an Alpha dealer in the crew and the rest are there to collect a checque and couldn't give two shits about being professional or anything else other than quitting time,keeping the Alpha off their backs and pleasing themselves to the point where they will feed off the Alpha and deminish my gambling experience to appease the leader, even though I do tip. I'm just one player versus a lifetime with a brutal dictator, and a red chip one at that.