Buying 5,6,8 and betting the field

What is your guys opinion on betting, for example, $5 placed on 5, $6 placed on 6, $6 placed on 8, and $5 bet on the field. This bet is meant to generate a profit of $2 to $15, depending on field payouts for 2 and 12, each roll if you land on any number except for 7, in which case you would lose all $22. What do you think about this combined with progressive betting to recover losses?

this is about the same as eating only dog diarrhea as a way to lose weight.

Quote: ontariodealer

this is about the same as eating only dog diarrhea as a way to lose weight.

Celebrities swear by it. Katie kourik said so.

Quote: Blackli0nXX

What is your guys opinion on betting, for example, $5 placed on 5, $6 placed on 6, $6 placed on 8, and $5 bet on the field. This bet is meant to generate a profit of $2 to $15, depending on field payouts for 2 and 12, each roll if you land on any number except for 7, in which case you would lose all $22. What do you think about this combined with progressive betting to recover losses?

Sounds as good as any other system. The problem I've found with craps is you either bet the pass line, take odds, and place several numbers pressing as you go. This to have fun. Or, you get serious and bet the don't pass in larger amounts, laying single odds. In both cases you have enough money to enjoy your winnings. The bet you describe above won't excite anyone and thus the luster and glamor of it all is also lost. If you want to win big, you must bet big. Same with recovery of a fixed sum. You have to bet more than you are comfortable with aka "scared money" which it seems always loses.

Quote: Blackli0nXX

What is your guys opinion on betting, for example, $5 placed on 5, $6 placed on 6, $6 placed on 8, and $5 bet on the field. This bet is meant to generate a profit of $2 to $15, depending on field payouts for 2 and 12, each roll if you land on any number except for 7, in which case you would lose all $22.

2.77 house edge in the field, 4.76 house edge on Buy Bets.

Quote: BlackliOnXX

What do you think about this combined with progressive betting to recover losses?

Progressive betting is done with the motivation to recover losses, not the guarantee that losses will in fact be recovered.

You should bet the pass line. 7 or 11 might come 10 times in a row. Think of it as insurance in Black Jack.

Quote: Blackli0nXX

What is your guys opinion on betting, for example, $5 placed on 5, $6 placed on 6, $6 placed on 8, and $5 bet on the field. This bet is meant to generate a profit of $2 to $15, depending on field payouts for 2 and 12, each roll if you land on any number except for 7, in which case you would lose all $22. What do you think about this combined with progressive betting to recover losses?

How would your Progression work? Are you planning to attempt to recover all losses on the very next roll and bet accordingly?

If your intention is to recover all $22 on the very next roll, (by winning that amount or greater) then you would need to bet $22 on the Field, probably $24 on the Place 6 and Place 8 (unless the House had $0.50 chips, then you could bet $21) and you would need to bet $20 on the Place 5, I believe.

What that means is your next Progression bet would be a total of $90 which would be a total loss of $112 on a second consecutive Seven.

The following bet, in the event of a loss, would need to be something like $96 on the Place Six and Place Eight (which would win $112, if successful), you would need to bet $112 on the Field, of course, and $80 on Place Five.

Another loss would be a loss of $384 combined with the $112 you've already lost, for a total loss of $496.

At this point, you would bet $496 on the Field, $426 on the Place Six and Place Eight and $355 on Place Five.

A loss on this level would be of $1703 for a total loss of $2,199. You've exceeded the Table Limit at some places, at this point, but we can continue, if you like.

Anyway, let me know if the intent of your system is to recover losses in this fashion, and I'll get into the probabilities later on.

As you can see, four consecutive sevens (1 in 1296) loses a total of $2,199 Progressing in this fashion, so this system can get really ugly in a hurry.

Naturally, this system will win a good bit, but a series of Sevens would result in a staggering loss.

The other thing that I notice is that the system must win (obviously) multiple times on the first level to even get to the point where the first loss has been covered. When we talk about that 1 in 1296 probability of rolling four consecutive sevens, we're not just talking about the beginning odf your system, we're talking about 1 in 1296 after ANY ROLL that was not a Seven. In other words, your system can win four consecutive times (Field 3,4,9,10,11 * 3) and one of the Place Bets and then a Seven negates all wins, or four non 12/2 Field Numbers can come up in a row, but if the next number is a Seven, you still lose.

I'll do some probability Math on this later if you confirm how the Progression would work. I'm assuming you would try to recover losses in one roll, so obviously, if you win a couple but then lose, you would bet less to cover the loss....or would you start all over again if you only lost part of the $22?

This bet is called the Iron Cross.

Like every other bet on the table, it will end up being a losing proposition. However, I don't agree that this is a boring bet. It becomes an action bet. EVERY roll has a decision. You either get paid something, or lose everything, each and every roll of the dice. Sort of like playing any of the horn area bets, except your house edge is way less with the Iron Cross.

Find a good craps simulator (Wiz has one on here) and play the Iron Cross for a while. Then report back here if you ever have any winning sessions after you have played for an hour. My guess is you will be looking for a different system very soon.

Alright guys after I did the math by taking the probability of rolling a 7 five times ( 7776/60,466,176 or roughly 0.0001286% ) which would net -8390 compared to the chances of rolling all other numbers just once ( 1/36 for 2 and 12, 14/36 for other field numbers, 4/36 for 5, 5/36 for 6 and 8), I get a player edge of 251%. Somebody please confirm this because I think i am totally doing this wrong but here is my math.

Note: I am using payouts from an online table I am playing which features no maximum bet. This table also allows buying numbers if there is no point established and pays decimals.

I take the house edge chart fromthat features the field bet. It has a table with number rolled, payout, probability, and return. I plugged in my numbers to get:

Number	Pays	Probability	Return
2	+12.5	1/36	+0.34722222
3,4,9,10,11	+5	14/36	+1.944444
12	+15	1/36	+0.4166666
5	+2.25	4/36	+0.25
6,8	+2	10/36	+0.55555
7	-8390	1/7776	-3.66666
Total			+2.506

Please tell me if this is the correct way to use this data. My progression system consists of upping your bets in a way that would recover all the losses of your previous bets up to five tries. So first is $5,$5,$6,$6 on field,buy five, buy six, buy eight respectively. Then comes $22,$31,$38,$38 followed by $151,$209,$259,$259 then $67851,$93588,$58158,$58158 and finally $345606,$476698,$592468,$592468. I used the probability for one roll on all winning numbers because the payout would still be the same no matter what bet level you are on, then the probability of rolling 7 five times in which case you would lose the money put into all 5 bets.

Now obviously if this data is correct, I am not saying this is a reasonable way to make money, I just want to know if this actually beats the house odds. If my calculations are wrong or your are confused about what I did please tell me and I will output a fix.

EDIT: The values for the progression system were initially lower because they were wrong. Now that i see that they are unreasonably high i may change the system to only go 3 levels.

The first thing you are doing is trying to convert your win into units, so you are over-complicating things that way rather than just using dollars.

The second mistake you are making is not accounting for the fact that, if a Place bet wins, your Field bet loses, so a Place Bet win does not have its typical value. This is what you are actually looking at, per roll:

Snake Eyes: (1/36 * 10) = .27778
Midnight: (1/36 * 15) = .41667
3, 4, 9, 10, 11: (14/36 * 5) = 1.9444
Five: (5/36 * 2) = .27778
Six or Eight: (10/36 * 1) = .27778
Seven: (6/36 * -22) = -3.6667

Sum: -.47225

In other words, you lose roughly 47.225 cents per roll at the first Level which equates to a House Edge, per roll, of .47225/22 = .021466 or 2.1466% of your overall action.

What I hate about this betting system is that when a 6 or 8 is rolled - the two most commonly rolled numbers after 7 - you make only $2 instead of $7. That doesn't give you much money to start pressing bets with.

On rolls where a lot of craps are rolled you can make a decent profit.

Quote: Mission146

The first thing you are doing is trying to convert your win into units, so you are over-complicating things that way rather than just using dollars.

I am not quite sure what you mean by this. Could you please elaborate?

Quote: Mission146

The second mistake you are making is not accounting for the fact that, if a Place bet wins, your Field bet loses, so a Place Bet win does not have its typical value. This is what you are actually looking at, per roll:

Snake Eyes: (1/36 * 10) = .27778
Midnight: (1/36 * 15) = .41667
3, 4, 9, 10, 11: (14/36 * 5) = 1.9444
Five: (5/36 * 2) = .27778
Six or Eight: (10/36 * 1) = .27778
Seven: (6/36 * -22) = -3.6667

Sum: -.47225

In other words, you lose roughly 47.225 cents per roll at the first Level which equates to a House Edge, per roll, of .47225/22 = .021466 or 2.1466% of your overall action.

I believe I have the place bets at the correct net payment. Placing five will pay 7.25 (Because payout is 7.25:5). This will lose the field bet which is 5. (7.25 - 5 = 2.25) Then for the six and eight they both pay 7 (Payout is 7:6). This will once again lose the field bet which is 5. (7 - 5 = 2) In my chart I have them payout at these values. Also in your calculations you do not account for decimal payouts which is perfectly fine. I apologize for forgetting to mention this and i have corrected it in my post, but the table i play at pays decimals.

Quote: PBguy

What I hate about this betting system is that when a 6 or 8 is rolled - the two most commonly rolled numbers after 7 - you make only $2 instead of $7. That doesn't give you much money to start pressing bets with.

On rolls where a lot of craps are rolled you can make a decent profit.

I understand no one would actually use this as a viable method to play craps. I just want to see if you can statistically come out with a gain in the long run.

Quote: Blackli0nXX

Now obviously if this data is correct, I am not saying use this to win money, I just want to know if this actually beats the house odds. If my calculations are wrong or your are confused about what I did please tell me and I will output a fix.

Your table is wrong. The probability column does not add to 1, I don't even have to check anything else. You are missing outcomes and/or have the probabilities wrong.

Anyway, no combination of craps bets will have a player's edge. It's impossible to add negative numbers together and get a positive number.

Quote: dwheatley

Your table is wrong. The probability column does not add to 1, I don't even have to check anything else. You are missing outcomes and/or have the probabilities wrong.

Anyway, no combination of craps bets will have a player's edge. It's impossible to add negative numbers together and get a positive number.

My probability table doesn't add to one because I am taking the chance that I roll a 7 five times in a row and comparing it to the chance that any given roll would be something else. I also have the seven paying -8390 because that is how much I would lose if I lost five times in a row. I will however TRY to make a table where the probability adds to 1 and see what that gets me. This table will have to have 7776 different columns though (6 payment outcomes ^ 5 rolls [order matters]) so I will upload it later when i figure out the maths.

The first thing you are doing is trying to convert your win into units, so you are over-complicating things that way rather than just using dollars.

The second mistake you are making is not accounting for the fact that, if a Place bet wins, your Field bet loses, so a Place Bet win does not have its typical value. This is what you are actually looking at, per roll:

Snake Eyes: (1/36 * 10) = .27778
Midnight: (1/36 * 15) = .41667
3, 4, 9, 10, 11: (14/36 * 5) = 1.9444
Five: (5/36 * 2) = .27778
Six or Eight: (10/36 * 2) = .55556
Seven: (6/36 * -22) = -3.6667

Sum: -.19451

In other words, you lose roughly 19.451 cents per roll at the first Level which equates to a House Edge, per roll, of .19451/22 = .00884% or .884% of your overall action.

Quote: Blackli0nXX

I believe I have the place bets at the correct net payment. Placing five will pay 7.25 (Because payout is 7.25:5). This will lose the field bet which is 5. (7.25 - 5 = 2.25) Then for the six and eight they both pay 7 (Payout is 7:6). This will once again lose the field bet which is 5. (7 - 5 = 2) In my chart I have them payout at these values. Also in your calculations you do not account for decimal payouts which is perfectly fine. I apologize for forgetting to mention this and i have corrected it in my post, but the table i play at pays decimals.

Excuse me, I was in a hurry and only gave you $1 on the 6/8, it's $2, but you still have a negative expectation, see my post above.

There are no decimals, the $5 Place 5 pays $7, the $6 6/8 pays $7 and the Field pays $5, $10 or $15. That's why I suggested you just use dollars.

EDIT: Even if I give you $7.25 on the $5 Place 5, it's not enough.

Quote: Mission146

Excuse me, I was in a hurry and only gave you $1 on the 6/8, it's $2, but you still have a negative expectation, see my post above.

There are no decimals, the $5 Place 5 pays $7, the $6 6/8 pays $7 and the Field pays $5, $10 or $15. That's why I suggested you just use dollars.

In a real life situation you are absolutely right, there are no decimals, so your table is correct for land-based games. I doubled checked the math on your table and our values came out the same. I also checked the values if decimals were paid (example: online-based casino that I am playing) and my house edge came out to be 0.69%. I thank you for confirming my math was correct if there was no progression system. :D

Quote: Blackli0nXX

In a real life situation you are absolutely right, there are no decimals, so your table is correct for land-based games. I doubled checked the math on your table and our values came out the same. I also checked the values if decimals were paid (example: online-based casino that I am playing) and my house edge came out to be 0.69%. I thank you for confirming my math was correct if there was no progression system. :D

I will be happy to do a full analysis of your Progression later on this evening. I believe there is another flaw with your Progression, though. In the Progression you listed on Page 1, your Level 2+ bets on the Place 5, 6 and 9 DO NOT cover the amount lost on Levels below because the Field bet also loses.

For example, your second level:

Quote: Blackli0nxx

$22,$16,$19,$19

The winning Place Bets do not cover the fact that the Field bet loses, so you have not recovered your money on a winning Place Bet because of the simultaneous Field loss. Specifically, a $19 Place Six win pays $22.17 (I guess) which means you have only recovered $0.17 of your $22 loss.

Betting this way, after the initial loss, you're basically counting on the Field to come up again before any Seven, so you make the probability of system failure more likely.

I'll be happy to devise a Five-Level system in which your Place Bet wins cover all previous losses and the losing Field Bet, if you like, then five consecutive sevens will be the only system breaker.

Quote: Mission146

The winning Place Bets do not cover the fact that the Field bet loses, so you have not recovered your money on a winning Place Bet because of the simultaneous Field loss. Specifically, a $19 Place Six win pays $22.17 (I guess) which means you have only recovered $0.17 of your $22 loss.

Betting this way, after the initial loss, you're basically counting on the Field to come up again before any Seven, so you make the probability of system failure more likely.

I'll be happy to devise a Five-Level system in which your Place Bet wins cover all previous losses and the losing Field Bet, if you like, then five consecutive sevens will be the only system breaker.

Haha, i realized this just before you posted. Here should be the correct values still respective to field, buy five, buy six, buy eight, please double check me. $5 $5 $6 $6 then $22 $31 $38 $38 then $151 $209 $259 $259 then $67,851 $93,588 $58,158 $58,158 then $345,606 $476,698 $592,468 $592468. I will also correct this in my second post. Now i realize with these new numbers, nobody can come close this kind of bankroll. I think a more realistic approach would be take out two levels so the maximum bet is only $878 and the maximum losing 3 times is $1,209. This will probably significantly decrease the chance of gaining a profit. But i would still like to know if going 5 levels deep has a chance.

I would much appreciate your full analysis. Thank you for all the help Mission146!

Quote: Blackli0nXX

Haha, i realized this just before you posted. Here should be the correct values still respective to field, buy five, buy six, buy eight, please double check me. $5 $5 $6 $6 then $22 $31 $38 $38 then $151 $209 $259 $259 then $67,851 $93,588 $58,158 $58,158 then $345,606 $476,698 $592,468 $592468. I will also correct this in my second post. Now i realize with these new numbers, nobody can come close this kind of bankroll. I think a more realistic approach would be take out two levels so the maximum bet is only $878 and the maximum losing 3 times is $1,209. This will probably significantly decrease the chance of gaining a profit. But i would still like to know if going 5 levels deep has a chance.

I would much appreciate your full analysis. Thank you for all the help Mission146!

The full analysis would be better left to a simulation with a program such as WinCraps, or perhaps someone can code a simulation. The difficulty with doing a full mathematical breakdown is that there are so many different combinations of winning events to account for, and each one has its own probability. I would say that the system prevails when you win $22+ prior to losing $22 and that would be the, "Start over," point, for now, I'm just going to give you the probability of losing and expected value thereof.

I might be able to work something out using the averages, though.

Okay, the order of the bets are always going to be Field, Place Five, Place Six, Place Eight.

Level 1

(1/36 * 15) + (1/36 * 10) + (14/36 * 5) + (4/36 * 2) + (10/36 * 2) = 3.4167

(6/36 * -22) = -3.6667

Expected Value: -3.6667 + 3.4167 = -.25, per roll.

Effective House Edge: .25/22 = 0.01136363636 or 1.136% per roll (.0046 * 12) + (.0111 * 5) + (.02778 * 5) = 0.2496/22 = 1.135% (Rounding)

Level 2

Okay, if you lose $22 on Level 1, then you have to bet in such a fashion to make up your losses on Level 2. In this sense, you're not really considering the loss on Level 1 a loss, but rather, a continuation. Thus, the expected value you are using on Level 1 is 3.4167 because you essentially don't lose at that level.

To determine how much you need to Place to compensate the $22*2 = $44 for the initial loss and Field Bet, use the following formulas:

(Place 5) 7/5 * x = 44......x = 44/(7/5).....x = 31.4285714286

Okay, so we'll call that a bet of $31.43 since we can use decimals.

(Place 6/8) 7/6 * x = 44......x = 44/(7/6).....x = 37.7142857143

Okay, so we're going to call that a bet of $37.72, each

The Field Bet is, obviously, $22.

The Expected Value of a win is:

(.02 * 4/36) + (.01 * 10/36) + (1/36 * 44) + (1/36 * 22) + (14/36 * 0) = 1.838333333333333

The Expected Value of a loss is:

(6/36 * 128.87) = -21.47833333333333

Level Three

Okay, at this point, you have lost 37.72+31.43+22+22+37.72 = $150.87

Place Five: 7/5 * x = 150.87....x = 150.87/(7/5)....x = 107.76428571428572

Thus, you will Place the Five for $107.77.

Place Six/Eight: 7/6 * x = 150.87....x = 150.87/(7/6)....x = 129.31714285714284

Thus, you will Place each for $129.32.

You will bet $150.87 on the Field.

Expected Win Value: (10/36 * 0) + (14/36 * 0) + (4/36 * .01) + (1/36 * 301.74) + (1/36 * 150.87) = 12.57361111111111

Expected Loss Value: (6/36 * 517.28) = -86.21333333333332

Totals

The sum of your Expected Wins is:

12.57361111111111 + 1.838333333333333 + 3.4167 = 17.828644444444442

The sum of your Expected Losses is:

86.21333333333332 + 21.47833333333333 + 3.6667 = 111.35836666666667

The result is:

-111.35836666666667 + 17.828644444444442 = -93.52972222222223

You expect to lose on 1/216 attempts, so your overall expected value, per attempt, is -0.43300797325102885 or -43.3 cents per attempt.

PROOF

Yes, if we use that House Edge, per roll, of .01136, then we arrive at:

(22 * .00136) + (128.87 * 1/6 * .01136) + (517.28 * 1/36 * .01136) = 0.43714444444

Which is an expected loss of 43.71 cents per attempt, with the difference due to rounding.

Well looks like this is a bust. Interestingly enough though the house edge actually goes up the more times you progress your bet, according to your calculations. Thanks anyways for the help. Cheers.

Quote: Blackli0nXX

Well looks like this is a bust. Interestingly enough though the house edge actually goes up the more times you progress your bet, according to your calculations. Thanks anyways for the help. Cheers.

You're welcome, but that's not the House Edge, it's the expected loss. You'll see on the bottom that the House Edge per roll is always the same. The Expected Loss increases faster than the expected gains as your level increases because you bet more on all bets, but the Place 5, Place 6 and Place 8 are bet only in a way that recovers your losses from previous levels and the Field Bet lost on that level, but DO NOT generate a profit, other than $0.01 or $0.02, occasionally. Further, the Field only profits on 2 or 12, beyond Level 1, all other results just recover your losses from previous levels.