The hot hand

I was shooting the other day and got hot. Number after number, lots of hardways, I hit at least 4 points, a couple of them in back-to-back rolls. After a while, I had each number working at the highest limit I'm comfortable with. Then it occurred to me: I would never bet that much initially. The two reasons I was betting that much are: 1. I was winning. 2. I hadn't lost yet. Well, I guess that's really the same reason, not the same reason. De facto, that made me a hot hand player. I was betting more simply because I was winning, which meant I thought my next roll was more likely to be a winner than a loser. Is there a reason to believe I'd keep on winning when I'm hot? Maybe. Well, I proceeded to roll a few more numbers and of course eventually 7'd out. I hit it big, for me...won 9K. I'm thrilled, I'm happy of course. But when I go back to the tables, I'm still going to be betting only $10-$50, and not the $200-$400 per number I during my hot roll. Is there an inconsistency in this behavior?

Without people believing in hot hands and generally betting more money when they have been winning, casinos might have to close their doors.

Quote: Frogger

I was shooting the other day and got hot. Number after number, lots of hardways, I hit at least 4 points, a couple of them in back-to-back rolls. After a while, I had each number working at the highest limit I'm comfortable with. Then it occurred to me: I would never bet that much initially. The two reasons I was betting that much are: 1. I was winning. 2. I hadn't lost yet. Well, I guess that's really the same reason, not the same reason. De facto, that made me a hot hand player. I was betting more simply because I was winning, which meant I thought my next roll was more likely to be a winner than a loser. Is there a reason to believe I'd keep on winning when I'm hot? Maybe. Well, I proceeded to roll a few more numbers and of course eventually 7'd out. I hit it big, for me...won 9K. I'm thrilled, I'm happy of course. But when I go back to the tables, I'm still going to be betting only $10-$50, and not the $200-$400 per number I during my hot roll. Is there an inconsistency in this behavior?

No, that sounds completely normal. I rarely press up my bets during one session, but if I had an amazing session early in a trip, I'll bet bigger in my next couple of sessions just for the hell of it, since I have extra money. Pressing up mid-session is very common among gamblers other than me, and is the same concept just time-compressed. Especially since I play pass/come for the most part, wherein it is less common to "press" as it is with place bets.

From a strictly logical perspective, this is madness since betting more at a -EV game just means more expected losses. But the key is expected. Anything can happen in the short term. It's a certain kind of cognitive dissonance to know that you shouldn't win, that you shouldn't press up your bets because you're lucky at all to be ahead, really you should take the money and run away and never play craps again. But that's no fun.

Know the odds, have fun, and don't gamble with the grocery money (or in my case currently with the fiance's tuition money :P). That is my motto with craps.

Also, nice hit. I don't think I've pulled 9K in one session before. In fact I just went back through all my records and my biggest hit in one session has been $4850 net. Not surprisingly, that session was the biggest I have ever bet. If I'm doing really well and feeling super reckless, the most I will usually bet is a $25 pass with 3/4/5 odds and continuous come with 3/4/5 odds. During this session, there were 2 monster rolls wherein I bumped the flat bets to $50 and kept with the 3/4/5 odds.

$9000 is a hell of a win on a 4 point roll starting at $10-$50. i surely must be
doing something wrong. I have had and seen a good number of hour or better
rolls and never seen anyone win that much starting at less than $100 per number.

On the other point, if you want to keep your home you cant start betting very
high hoping to catch that lucky roll, because they dont come around every
hour or so.

Very good win. good for you


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