prob of win

what is the probability of a DP win if you disregard the push?

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/

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The total probability of winning is 3/36 + 14112/35640 = 17082/35640 = 2847/5940
The probability of losing is 1-(2847/5940 + 1/36) = 1-(3012/5940) = 2928/5940
The expected return is 2847/5940×(+1) + 2928/5940×(-1) = -81/5940 = -3/220 ≈ 1.364%

Most other sources on craps will claim that the house edge on the don't pass bet is 1.403%. The source of the discrepancy lies is whether or not to count ties. I prefer to count ties as money bet and others do not. I'm not saying that one side is right or wrong, just that I prefer counting them. If you don't count ties as money bet then you should divide by figure above by the probability that the bet will be resolved in a win or loss (35/36). So 1.364%/(35/36) ≈ -1.403%. This is the house edge assuming that the player never rolls a 12 on the come out roll.
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Quote: bahdbwoy

what is the probability of a DP win if you disregard the push?
The total probability of winning is 3/36 + 14112/35640 = 17082/35640 = 2847/5940

2847/5940 = 949/1980 counting pushes
0.47 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92

949/1925 not counting pushes
0.49 298701 298701 298701 298701 298701

the 1925 comes from 1980 - (1980/36)

recall
pass line win probability = 244/495
0.49 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29

Sally


I also agree on counting them pushes

in 100 come out rolls with a pass and don't pass player playing at the same table
the pass line player sees exactly 100 wins and losses
not 100% certain for the don't pass player

my question back would be
the chance the don't pass player has exactly 100 wins and losses too (just like pass line)

is it (rounded)
1 in a million
1 in 1673
1 in 167.3
1 in 16.73
or
1 in 1.67

i would have to say 1 in 16.73, but seems to obvious that it may be wrong?

Quote: bahdbwoy

i would have to say 1 in 16.73, but seems to obvious that it may be wrong?

for no pushes in 100 come out rolls
there would be only one combo * (1/36)^0 *(35/36)^100 or 1*1*(35/36)^100 = 0.059779786 or 1 in 16.73
http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/binomial.aspx?Tutorial=Stat

so that leads to why the don't pass win probability, not counting pushes, was wanted

Sally

:/ well, dont look down at me but of course as the shooter i think i can avoid box-cars on the comeout or at least stretch it beyond the 1/36 probability. :x

Quote: bahdbwoy

:/ well, dont look down at me but of course as the shooter i think i can avoid box-cars on the comeout or at least stretch it beyond the 1/36 probability. :x

I guess I have to look *up* to you. You can quit your day job and play craps for a living if you can do that.

I think there are more lucrative ways to exploit your talent, though, than just playing the Don't Pass. So they tell me.