A solid approach to craps

I am relatively new to craps, but I do understand that all strategies will ultimately fail to provide a profit over the long term. Therefore, it seems to me the best approach for playing craps is to make the best bet on the table, and only that bet—plus, incorporate a solid incremental betting sequence, such as the 1-2-2-4 sequence. Here’s how it would work. First decide on your unit bet, for example, $5. Bet one unit - $5 - on the don’t pass (the best bet on the table). The don’t pass is the only bet you are ever going to make, because it carries the best chance of winning. Let’s say you win that one-unit ($5) bet. So you advance to a two-unit bet, which is $10. But realize this: you are only betting $5 of your money; the other $5 is house money. Only $5 of your money is at risk! Put the $10 on the don’t pass. Let’s say you win that second bet of $10. Now you are golden, for here is the beauty of the 1-2-2-4: if you win the second bet, you now cannot lose money in the 1-2-2-4 sequence! So your next bet—your third bet--is again a 2 unit bet. So you bet $10. But here is the magic of that third bet: the entire $10 bet is now house money! So even if you lose it, you are still up $5 for the sequence! Let’s say you win that third bet of $10. You now bet 4 units, or $20, but again—the entire $20 is house money! Even if you lose that fourth bet, you are still up $5 for the sequence! If you win that fourth bet, you have turned $5 into $50. And you did it without ever risking more than $5 of your own money—and you risked it on the best bet there is, the don’t pass. So the overall strategy is this: use the 1-2-2-4 sequence and bet only the don’t pass. Every time you lose a bet, simply return to the first step of the 1-2-2-4. Every time time you win, advance through the 1-2-2-4 sequence. If you win the fourth bet, return to the beginning of the sequence. This seems to me to be a solid approach overall: you have the seven doing its best possible work for you by betting the don’t pass, and you are leveraging house money to your best advantage. Any comments or thoughts would be appreciated...thanks.

Let me guess...you're a lifetime loser at craps like the rest of us, huh?

Quote: Beethoven9th

Let me guess...you're a lifetime loser at craps like the rest of us, huh?

I'm a life time winner, so there.

Quote: AxelWolf

I'm a life time winner, so there.

LOL! I didn't feel like typing out every single exception to the rule...haha

Your strategy makes me wanna shrug my shoulders and say "It's no better or worse than other systems."

Except you never talked about making an odds bet.

Also, please remember that once you win it, it's no longer "house money." It's YOUR MONEY!

So your strategy is to basically playing a modified version of the field with the "7" .... But you're doing it from the DP

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Also, please remember that once you win it, it's no longer "house money." It's YOUR MONEY!

Yes, legally it is but casinos sure love the players who think its "the casino's money" and who are therefore betting larger than they otherwise would.

Music, booze, broads, perfume, ... its enough to make the casinos perfectly happy to offer 0.86 percent house edge games. They got no worry about paying that darned lighting bill ... then you add in the fact that their customers are often ignorant, snookered and emotional.

And if a customer really overcomes all the obstacles and goes on a truly hot roll, they will put those dice on a red cushion in a display case somewhere and milk thier "loss" for they can.

Quote: CrapsForFun

but I do understand that all strategies will ultimately fail to provide a profit over the long term.

not true at all.
Lots of +EV bets at the Craps table to be taken.
One example.
One can buy don't pass and don't come bets that a player does not want action on.
The bigger the bet the better.
(of course the player making these bets has to agree with this first)

I found a don't player making $200 flat bets and called no action on the DPass and DCome when a 5, 6 or 8 was rolled.
He liked having a DP or DC 9.

I offered to give him $200 for the bets and let them go behind the numbers. he did not like the idea.
Was even confused why I wanted this.

I offered him $205 for each bet and after he thought about it for a few seconds said, sure, I do it for $205 for the bets I do not want.
I paid him well over $1,000 in just the $5 bets that night.
We ended up both very happy.
Same as a happy ending.
and 2014 is a new year.

I see this so often it is not funny.
The more the better.
Long term profit.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Your strategy makes me wanna shrug my shoulders and say "It's no better or worse than other systems."

really depends on what you want. Most all want to have fun. (CrapsForFun)
I have fun at "Double your starting bankroll or go away trying"

A $5 flat bet DPass player (and $100 bankroll) has a 36.3% chance of doing exactly that and a good number of bets too.
390 on average. (this is basic Gambler's Ruin 101 stuff)
fun

More fun with the 1,2,2,4 system and less time
almost half the number of bets required and about 42% chance of the double-up
(I like more and larger average bets)

more may be more fun for some
and that really is the bottom line

OP (CrapsForFun)
I do hope you understand that most of your win streaks will be of length 1 and after that length 2. (close to 75.7%)
so you better be in this for the grind.
(got to get past that come out 7)

On average it takes 31.4194 bets to see a win streak of 4 (not counting the pushes)

p=0.492987013 (949/1925)
(BTW, the DPass wins more than the Pass Line (not counting pushes) by 1/17325)
p^4 * (1+p+p^2+p^3)
(# of trials * avg length of each trial)
16.93004396 * 1.855836896

check my math if you get the chance. It could be fun too.

I might have more fun with a 1, 1.5, 2, 4 win progression

Good Luck

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Except you never talked about making an odds bet.

CrapsForFun "I am relatively new to craps"
and many do not grasp the power of the odds bet.
Let us look at an example

CrapsForFun
here I go
OK
ran your system in the Zumma 35,097 actual dice rolls system tester in WinCraps.
nothing better than actual dice rolls.
I have over 40k of my own, but not documented to the world as is Zumma's

Results
#1) 1,2,2,4 method (CrapsForFun)
net: -2730 not a bad loss over 10K+ bets made. Got some comps from it
bets made: 10338 (won 5112, 49.45%)
handle: 164650
avg bet: 15.9267
ev: -2309.3809

#2) 1,1.5,2,4 (me for fun)
net: -2260
bets made: 10338 (won 5112, 49.45%)
handle: 150770
avg bet: 14.5841
ev: -2114.7

my win progression system lost less than the OP's

#3) Now flat betting $10
net: -1140
(WOW! looks like this player lost way less than the progression bettors and had fun because of it)
bets made: 10338 (won 5112, 49.45%)
handle: 103380
avg bet: 10.00
ev: -1450.0079

#4) Now flat betting $15
net: -1710
bets made: 10338 (won 5112, 49.45%)
handle: 155070
avg bet: 15.00
ev: -2175.0118

CrapsForFun
maybe back to the thinking board. Flat betting did better than progression betting in this example series.


How about the DPass player that bet $10 and made the odds bet for single Lay odds and double Lay odds?
Good Luck

all of these betting strategies are great if the dice followed them.

Quote: 7craps

One can buy don't pass and don't come bets that a player does not want action on...I see this so often it is not funny.

What's funny is how I have looked for this situation and it never comes up. [g] But then again I am plagued with my gambling problem that has gotten worse.



I can believe someone so dumb as to give up action where the odds are on his side would also resist the idea of letting someone buy the bet. When he gives it up, he lets it travel back to the DC, or picks it up. A $200 bettor that you could then offer $205? an even rarer situation. Perhaps a player could find a $25 bettor that would take $26, but you'd want to be maybe crunch the numbers on that one first.

There is an awful lot that goes into playing craps well and there has been
a number of them dicusssed on these pages.

For me there is no question you have to develop some type of throw
that gives you an advantage.. other than that you will lose..

The books and writers indicate the best and worst bets on the table, and for
the long haul they will hold true.. you have to decide how long your haul
will be by the amount of money you can invest.

Remember the house advantage is caculated on the difference between true odds
and what the casino pays you, not your ability to hit the number you are betting on.

If you place $10 on the pass line and the number ends up being a 10 and you place
$30 behind it. In the the long run, the odds say you will lose little, in the short run you
dont make that 10 you lost it all.

Craps is just like winning poker, you needs some skills and you have to pay attention
to everything.


dicesetter

Quote: odiousgambit

Perhaps a player could find a $25 bettor that would take $26, but you'd want to be maybe crunch the numbers on that one first.

The numbers are simple: offer less than what the odds would pay, because that's the true win ratio on the DP/DC on a point. You could takeover a $25 DP on the 6 or 8 for $30 and breakeven, so any less is profit. On the 5, any less than $37.50

Quote: odiousgambit

What's funny is how I have looked for this situation and it never comes up.

I can believe someone so dumb as to give up action where the odds are on his side would also resist the idea of letting someone buy the bet.

But just about all Craps dealers and box think it is the best bet to make, no action on the DP or DC 6 & 8 - it is NOT dumb.
even those that say they know the game of Craps, don't bettors, say it is a better way to play.
Too many ways to lose.
I have seen this even at Card Craps in CA.

The Dealers that saw what I was doing and especially when I lost 6 of these bets in a row thought I was the stupidest
Craps player they ever saw
One even said so. I did not know if "stupidest" was even correct English.
Other players at the table shook their head in disbelief every time I lost a bet I had just paid for.

I just replied "thanks for the compliment" and kept on playing

What I have found that works best , for me,
is to make the don't player a friendly offer even when I do no see him calling "no action" on some of his don't bets.
It plants the seed.

Quote: dwheatley

The numbers are simple: offer less than what the odds would pay, because that's the true win ratio on the DP/DC on a point. You could takeover a $25 DP on the 6 or 8 for $30 and breakeven, so any less is profit. On the 5, any less than $37.50

At first thought you would think so, but it is not true. That is, if you think you could buy someone else's $25 6/8 DP bet for $30 and break even over the long run, you are wrong.

To think about this qualitatively, you are effectively offering to pay a $5 vig on the bet, which is huge

To prove this quantitatively, consider a trial of 11 rolls. For each of these rolls, your cost for the bet is $30 ($25 which remains on the table and $5 which goes to the original bettor). On average, the bet will win 6 times (on a seven). The proceeds from the win is $50 each time ($25 payout plus $25 original bet), yielding $300 total. And, of course, on average, the bet will lose 5 times (on the point), yielding you $0.

So over each 11 rolls, you are losing $30 total, or $2.70 each bet. If you want this strategy to work, you need to offer $26, not $30.

This strategy is NOT the same as laying $30 odds against your DP bet, because in the normal case you get back the extra $5 on the odds on a win, where in this case you are out the extra $5 no matter what.

7-out, line away, pay the don't

FWIW, I would think that the casino would heavily frown on (and even prevent) players buying other player's don't bets, regardless of what they pay. Having instead the player take down the bet is better for the casino, which is what they would guard.

I guess it all depends on how uncomfortable the DP 6/8 bettor is, the more so, the easier it would be to buy the bet at face value.

Quote: darthvader

FWIW, I would think that the casino would heavily frown on (and even prevent) players buying other player's don't bets, regardless of what they pay. Having instead the player take down the bet is better for the casino, which is what they would guard.

I'd have to agree with this. You bet it's better for the casino if those DP/DC bets that traveled get taken down. I wonder if anyone has ever been in this situation where there was a DP/DC bettor that would offer to sell their traveled bets to someone else that's playing.

Quote: Alan

I guess it all depends on how uncomfortable the DP 6/8 bettor is, the more so, the easier it would be to buy the bet at face value.

I guess I can't be too critical, because I used to feel the same, but it is mathematically irrational to be uncomfortable on the DP 6/8.

It might be kind of fun to try to get into this situation, get someone at the table to bet DC(not DP so as to not be betting against the rest of the group-we all know that's BS, but a lot don't) and say if your $5 DC bet travels to a number I'll buy that bet from you at face value($5). You'd probably have to talk someone new into this one, any regular would probably look at you funny or worse.

Quote: Alan

Say if your $5 DC bet travels to a number I'll buy that bet from you at face value($5). You'd probably have to talk someone new into this one, any regular would probably look at you funny or worse.

Any regular don't bettor would laugh in your face, hopefully with no spittle. Any confirmed don't player has engraved on his fingertips the anxiety to get over the hump of the comeout bet. After all, after that it's all downhill, although not always smooth sailing.

Quote: 7craps

But just about all Craps dealers and box think it is the best bet to make, no action on the DP or DC 6 & 8

I have seen this as what I deemed to be honest opinion myself.

Quote: darthvader

FWIW, I would think that the casino would heavily frown on (and even prevent) players buying other player's don't bets, regardless of what they pay. Having instead the player take down the bet is better for the casino, which is what they would guard.

Maybe at the level of Pit Boss, they would typically know the real facts and not allow the bets. The dealers something over 90% of the time would be thinking "why not let him go ahead and kill himself" [is my guess - like I say, I never seem to get the chance to test it out - I just need to gamble more!] [edited]

Quote: SanchoPanza

Any regular don't bettor would laugh in your face, hopefully with no spittle. Any confirmed don't player has engraved on his fingertips the anxiety to get over the hump of the comeout bet. After all, after that it's all downhill, although not always smooth sailing.

Hey, but you win on a 2 or 3 on the come out. ;-)

Quote: 7craps

not true at all.
Lots of +EV bets at the Craps table to be taken.
One example.
One can buy don't pass and don't come bets that a player does not want action on.
The bigger the bet the better.
(of course the player making these bets has to agree with this first)

I found a don't player making $200 flat bets and called no action on the DPass and DCome when a 5, 6 or 8 was rolled.
He liked having a DP or DC 9.

interesting. do NOT take odds since it INCREASES the house edge for you in this case?

Quote: AlanMendelson

all of these betting strategies are great if the dice followed them.

Precisely. You can always program the display that way or maybe even encounter a few such episodes in real life but in reality its youze pays your money and youze takes your chance. So quit trying to hedge into eternity and take your chance.

Quote: FleaStiff

Precisely. You can always program the display that way or maybe even encounter a few such episodes in real life but in reality its youze pays your money and youze takes your chance. So quit trying to hedge into eternity and take your chance.

Do you agree with the OP's (CrapsForFun) topic?

here it is

CrapsForFun
"I am relatively new to craps,
but I do understand that all strategies will ultimately fail to provide a profit over the long term.
Therefore, it seems to me the best approach for playing craps is to make the best bet on the table,
and only that bet—

plus, incorporate a solid incremental betting sequence, such as the 1-2-2-4 sequence.

The don’t pass is the only bet you are ever going to make, because it carries the best chance of winning."

he ends with
"Any comments or thoughts would be appreciated...thanks."

My example of buying don't bets was to show a long term profit can be had at Craps.
It is only one example.

I say to CrapsForFun
what ever makes one have the most fun playing Craps, for that person, is the best approach.
it may not be the best for another "real craps player"

Quote: 7craps

I found a don't player making $200 flat bets and called no action on the DPass and DCome when a 5, 6 or 8 was rolled.
He liked having a DP or DC 9.

Quote: 100xOdds

interesting. do NOT take odds since it INCREASES the house edge for you in this case?

yes
Because I had the edge in this case, I needed many bets, not just 10 or 20,
laying the odds would lower what I had in edge and challenge my bankroll too.
I could have made a phone call to get more.

Most of my bets were the don't 6 & 8s (both DP and DC) I had a good number of don't 5s too (less than 30%)
but really wanted more.

My edge was (DP and DC 6&8 only) 24+1/6 / 375+5/6 = 6.43%
(I lose 205 or gain 195)
Not the 9% because I paid $5 extra for each bet, but the don't 5s made the overall edge I had much higher
and the ev per bet about $15.
I was very happy to get over 200 such bets.
Looking forward to the next table visit at the end of this month.
maybe or maybe not I get lucky again

DC 5 and DC 9 have exact same probabilities...

DC 6 and DC 8 are often "no actioned" but its not a good move in the long run.

Quote: FleaStiff

DC 6 and DC 8 are often "no actioned" but its not a good move in the long run.

lemme see, 6 ways to win, 5 ways to lose ... nope, I'd say not a good move in any size run.

Quote: 7craps

I found a don't player making $200 flat bets and called no action on the DPass and DCome when a 5, 6 or 8 was rolled.
He liked having a DP or DC 9.

If the don't player didn't like the #5 instead of saying "no action", he should place #5 for $200. He will either break even if the #7 is thrown or he will net win $80 if the #5 is thrown.

If the don't player didn't like the #6 (or #8) instead of saying "no action", he should place the #6 (or #8) for $198. He will either lose $2 if the #7 is thrown or he will net win $31 if the #6 (or #8) is thrown.

Just for the hell of it, I used Wincraps to see how it would go with the Big 6 bet, which also is 9.09% edge. Tracking the bankroll [imagining I'm the house] and using the hyper-drive which constantly graphs the bankroll, I have to say I was surprised how long it takes to be clear that the house is making out.

You will note that the player betting Big 6 can't seem to really win, but on the other hand it takes a lot of rolls to see that there is no hope. Which would mean, if you are buying those "no actions" on the darkside 6s and 8s, it is not immediately clear that it is a good or bad bet. Of course, only 11/36 rolls are a decision [same as someone buying the 6/8 no actions, edge % and # of rolls both].

The below was typical, betting $5. At a couple of spots the bet is winning a few bucks. It's an illustration for just how Craps gets confusing for so many players, we want to come to conclusions on the basis of inadequate sampling... then go to this site and claim we know what we are talking about [g]

you are describing the relationship between ev and sd as the number of trials increases
ev grows much faster with the number of trials and sd much slower with the square root of the trials.

so, early on in any session, the sd can easily be many times higher than the ev.
This is how any bet can win, +ev or -ev
but just give time chance to play out and ev will turn the tables sooner or later.

with a 6.43% edge and $205 bets is a $13.18 ev (really with the don't5 there I was over 9.5%)
but this shows the point of more trials needed when having an edge
sd: .9716 per unit so $199.178

I completed exactly 237 bets for the 6&8 (really a small sample)

so for your example you can do the math for ev and sd at different # of trials
and see the chances of winning or finally being in a hole never to get out of
here is a graph I get for winning