Insurance bets

Like it or not, I bet the don'ts. I have done fairly well but I think it's also because of some personal rules I have. Mostly if you get your point I won't chase you in case the table runs hot. I just wait until a new roller and as the table swings cold I dramatically increase my bets.

What I need to figure out is getting some insurance bets when it looks like the table is swinging cold. If I start putting up big dollar amounts on the don't pass line where is my best bet to protect me during the come out roll? Mathematically how can I protect my losses just a little bit on those big bets?

There's no such thing as a table "swinging" cold or hot.

Each roll of the dice is a totally independent event, with no connection to the past or future.

It never makes sense to make additional negative bets to "insure" negative bets themselves. Just stick to one set of negative bets, if you must play.

Quote: sodawater

There's no such thing as a table "swinging" cold or hot.

Each roll of the dice is a totally independent event, with no connection to the past or future.

It never makes sense to make additional negative bets to "insure" negative bets themselves. Just stick to one set of negative bets, if you must play.

Why stick to any particular bets at all? Just stick with bets that have the least -EV.

To cure you of the desire to hedge your bets, think about what you are doing and what hedging does. Hedging lowers the variance, which may sound like what you want: "Insurance" over the risk you are taking by getting less variance.

Here's the Rub: Lowering the variance, insuring a more normal outcome close to mathematical expectations in a negative expectation game, means helping the House. They like the assurance they are going to win this session.

Exactly, odiousgambit.

When playing negative games in a casino for fun, you are essentially BUYING variance. That's why games with higher variance like roulette cost more in house edge than games with lower variance (DP line at craps.) When you "hedge" your craps bets, you're removing the very variance you are paying for, AND increasing cost. It's lose-lose and makes no sense.

Fellow darksider,
My best advice is to play the DC instead of the DP, for various reasons.
a) doesn't normally attract the disdain of fellow players, as many won't understand it. And if they do, they realize that it is not directly a bet against them.
b) avoids the losses of sequential come out wins from the same shooter.

7-out, line away, pay the don't