You Can Throw p-value and Standard Deviation out the Window

I am at Wynn earlier this week and witness a 65-minute roll with over $200,000. being cashed-in at the table after the roll. This is just a few days after spending 8 days in Lake Tahoe and Reno where I never saw a hand longer than 15 rolls.

What is the difference between a 65-minute hand and a hand lasting 2 rolls (PSO)?

Answer: 1 Seven.

(Okay, it's a given there are multiple possible answers, but let's assume, arguendo, that this is the dominant answer.) The point is that 1 extra 7 is all that separates a $200,000. Loss for a casino and week's worth of Buy-ins as profit. How do you explain that with p-values and standard deviations that are well within normal ranges!

For a solid week all I saw in Lake Tahoe and Reno were dominant 6/1 Seven-outs that prevented customers from pressing and winning with House money. Who cares if a few wins are given to flat bets on the Pass Line during the Come-out, the casino will get that back with an early 7-out when you stack up full Odds.

Who cares if Don't Pass players win a few bets, just wait until they try to Lay the 4 and 10 and get knocked off a few times, and then try to recover. Or wait and watch the DP players see their profits gobbled away with those dominant Come-out 7s and YOs.

Percentage or Loaded Dice are being used by the casinos in Lake Tahoe and Reno no matter what the p-value or standard deviation may be. Sadly, too many of us are not able to see the problem because we are blinded by the numbers. And yes, I too have been fooled more than once by this casino "shell game".

The only difference between Reno and The Wynn in Vegas is that in Reno people play with red chips whereas at the Wynn red chips are used for tipping.

The two rolls you describe could each take place at the Wynn or they could each take place in Reno/Tahoe ... all you have to do is wait around long enough and not ignore a roll that flies in the face of your pre-conceived theory.

Oh sure maybe a really humungous roll takes quite a bit of waiting but a really good roll will take place just about every night at some craps game. Usually it happens before I get to the table or after I leave it.

Quote: Bohemian

Percentage or Loaded Dice are being used by the casinos in Lake Tahoe and Reno no matter what the p-value or standard deviation may be.

I wonder if the loaded dice are remotely controlled in the secret room.

Quote: Wizard

I wonder if the loaded dice are remotely controlled in the secret room.

skeptics like you don't appreciate our hero!

A lone hero indeed, spotting those cheating casinos!

Quote: Wizard

I wonder if the loaded dice are remotely controlled in the secret room.

Sounds about as preposterous as Casino Blacklist.

My craps simulator keeps track of longest roll and most points made out of 100,000 sessions at the table.

It produced one occurrence of 103 rolls and 17 points made before the 7-out. That would be pretty close to what you witnessed at the Wynn. OTOH my last trip to Vegas saw pretty much what you saw in Tahoe and Reno.

You had the good fortune to witness something very rare indeed. About one in one hundred thousand.

Eactly right



Right now at this very time some one is having a roll of the life time in some
casino some where, they are also having the game of their life in bowling, maybe
golfing or fishing or hunting.

Stuff happens, and you dont notice it in craps unless there are some people
at the table that happen to be playing with lots of money.

In the movie "breaking Vegas" it was indicated $27,000 was won on Dom's
45 minute roll, ( wish i was there by the way" anyone that has played
this game for years has had 45 minute roll, or more. Two years ago in Carter
guy comes to the table fairly drunk and throws 1 hour and 15 minutes and on
the way threw up twice in the garbage container.

This has nothing to do with loaded dice or P values or the moon phase, it is
what gets people in the casino's each and every day..... you never know for
sure what will happen.


dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

Two years ago in Carter
guy comes to the table fairly drunk and throws 1 hour and 15 minutes and on
the way threw up twice in the garbage container.
dicesetter

Good gawd almighty, the craziest thing is that guy probably doesn't remember it!

BREAKING NEWS: Reliable sources report that the entire "so-called" SHORT-DICE crew have entered the Federal WITLESS Protection Program. Film at 11!

yeah, I agree. I've been in the surveillance business for a long time and we have been using "loaded dice" forever. this has to be the dumbest post I've seen in a while. why would a Casino risk a pittance of money won using loaded dice vs losing a Casino which makes millions. you are the same guy who claims Pokerstars is rigged, "I keep getting bad beat". they make millions and could give a rats azz about your $500 or $1000 or $50 or whatever you just lost. my casino could care less about Craps revenue as long as people keep pressing the slot machine button, 3.5%- 2.4% every time a reel goes around. multiple that by 500k spins a day and that's what's called "EV" and they get it every day.

bdc42


i agree, now that does not mean that all the dice are perfect i magine there are not.
BUt the majority of the people on the crew would have no idea, and even if they felt
they were not perfect, they would have no idea what the result would be.

If they were set for more sevens on purpose, a good dont player could clean them
out if the 7's came at the right time.

I have watched many tribal casino's open the table and all they know is you put them in
this thing and they go around well. To be honest i have never seen a dice that was off.

dicesetter

I think the OP was just a swipe at Ahigh, the only person here that uses that measurement. But SuperRick would enjoy my previous quote, from his favorite craps author Tino Gambino

Quote: bdc42

yeah, I agree. I've been in the surveillance business for a long time and we have been using "loaded dice" forever. this has to be the dumbest post I've seen in a while. why would a Casino risk a pittance of money won using loaded dice vs losing a Casino which makes millions.

bdc42, you make a very faulty argument. A casino does not lose it's license if it cheats and often does not even get a slap on the wrist. Note the below case that "The Bear Growls" brings us after a casino got caught cheating:

Quote: the hearing examiner’s decision at The Bear Growls

Obviously, the actions of (the casinos) in this matter grossly violate the declared public policy of this state as it relates to gaming. The decisions made by (the casinos) were calculated, dishonest, immoral and done to purposefully distort the outcomes of advertised promotions. This type of disingenuousness serves no purpose other than to erode public confidence and trust in the gaming industry.

Quote: The Bear Growls

My understanding is that some of the crooked employees lost their jobs, but to my knowledge there has been no criminal prosecution of these casino-employee crooks. Why not?

A casino knows that the risk of getting caught cheating is well worth the reward, so why not use percentage dice to increase their profits!

http://www.thebeargrowls.com/?p=987

What's a percentage dice?

The ones that cause both right way and wrong way betters to lose simultaneously, of course!

Quote: s2dbaker

What's a percentage dice?

Cowboy is correct. Loaded dice or Percentage Dice as John Scarne describes them on page 209 of his book Scarne on Dice.
Scarne explains that whoever is using percentage dice

Quote:

“… doesn’t have a sure thing, but he has a percentage in his favor that pays off in cash.

… If the dice roll long enough, … The victim (player) loses because he is playing against two opponents – the cheat (casino) and that invisible but very dependable and powerful gentleman: Old Time Percentage.

Percentage dice, not on the level … “

All a casino ever checks is for obvious nicks or chips and whether the dice have the five numbers assigned to that table.

I doubt a casino has the ability to shave dice or the desire to, all they want are fair dice because its a fair game that protects the casinos.

FleaStiff, have you or ANY other doubting-Thomas ever put a die on a dice balancing caliper to see if it is balanced?

FleaStiff, have you or ANY other doubting-Thomas ever been to a dice factory and asked them to balance a brand new casino die?

I have, most cheap dice bought by casinos are not balanced and therefore favor the casino at current odds and payouts being paid, which are based on balanced dice.

Quote: Bohemian

I have, most cheap dice bought by casinos are not balanced and therefore favor the casino at current odds being paid, which are based on balanced dice.

How do unbalanced dice automatically favor the house?

The p-value or standard deviation should be thrown out the door when you are playing craps.
You will never hear a craps player say, oh my p-value on the beats I was making should have won me money. Hell most players never even heard of it. The guys that are talking about their P-Value can’t tell you why they are losing. To them they are making the right bets but what is going wrong?
Could it be that the Standard Deviation went negative? Or worst yet was it that damn P-Value that they missed figured? What a waste of time trying to figure out something that is going to change every time you go to the tables. Please explain what a P-value even is and why you think it’s going to help you play a negative game.
Now I’m not about to say that you don’t need to know the math of the game, but I will say that you are never going to be at a table where the math of the game works out over the long run, common sense should tell you that. You are going to run out of money before that ever happens, you don’t have the time to be there for 10,000 rolls of the dice.

Quote:

DeMango
BREAKING NEWS: Reliable sources report that the entire "so-called" SHORT-DICE crew have entered the Federal WITLESS Protection Program. Film at 11!

Quote:

DeMango
I think the OP was just a swipe at Ahigh, the only person here that uses that measurement. But SuperRick would enjoy my previous quote, from his favorite craps author Tino Gambino

DeMango I didn’t know that you were one of the great fiction writers MP’s disciples, following his preaching’s. I just love that quote, it just goes to show you what a pathological liar would write, thanks for passing it along! Ahigh took down the video that showed that the dice were out of balance with his high price balancer that he had made. Maybe it had something to do with his job, after all he did work for a gaming company, and unfortunately he is no longer on this board so we will never know why he did that!

Quote:

bdc42
yeah, I agree. I've been in the surveillance business for a long time and we have been using "loaded dice" forever. this has to be the dumbest post I've seen in a while. why would a Casino risk a pittance of money won using loaded dice vs losing a Casino which makes millions. you are the same guy who claims Pokerstars is rigged, "I keep getting bad beat". they make millions and could give a rats azz about your $500 or $1000 or $50 or whatever you just lost. my casino could care less about Craps revenue as long as people keep pressing the slot machine button, 3.5%- 2.4% every time a reel goes around. multiple that by 500k spins a day and that's what's called "EV" and they get it every day.

In just about every industry there is cheating going on every day, there is a long list of corporations that have been caught cheating, and yet everybody that works in the gambling industry will tell you that the casinos would lose their license if they were caught cheating. Wake-up and smell the roses gaming boards are there for one reason, and that is to protect the taxes for the states they are in! If you were a member of a gaming board, would you shut down one of the large strip casinos because they were caught cheating? Most likely you would slap then on the wrist with a small fine, and let them go right back to what they were doing. I know what these guys are saying, when they say that the dice are out of balance, because the casinos are using cheap dice, I don’t think that anybody has said that they are loading the dice that would be downright foolish on their part.

The question that everybody should be asking is, if the dice are out of balance, what would it do to the game of craps! Then they need to ask one more question, and that is if the casinos noticed that certain dice manufactures dice got more 7’s then others, would the casinos tend to use those dice? Would they be the same as any AP player, always looking for something that is out of the normal, that they could take advantage of?

Cheating Scandals Raise New Questions about Honesty, Security of Internet Gambling
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/29/AR2008112901679.html

The Wizard has caught a on line sites cheating before, and if I remember correctly didn’t he have something going against a casino for the pay-outs that they were advertising, that didn’t hold water, when he did the math? I may be wrong on this one, and if I’m wrong, please correct me!

...

Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...

Thanks Rick, sure took you long enough to reply, I know Tino is your favorite writer so I mention him now and then. But no, I am no ones disciple. There are just too many boxes that I think outside of, just like you in a way.

Quote: superrick

it just goes to show you what a pathological liar would write...

Personal insult -- three-day suspension. Also, please go easy on the bold font in the future.

deleted

No, just another gambler. Life is full of gambles, even for advantage players.

I absolutely hate to question a ruling, but I need clarification.

" I just love that quote, it just goes to show you what a pathological liar would write, thanks for passing it along! "

The quote is from Tino Gambino. To the best of my knowledge, he is not a member of this forum.

If you can be suspended for making derogatory comments about non-members, I believe quite a few members should be suspended
for comments about the President of the United States !

The person that SuperRick insulted is a member of this board and I see he has visited here today. He has made no posts. I suppose I should apologize to SR for having mentioned his name, knowing he would come back and say some nasty feces. Rick did not disappoint!

In this case, byebye SuperRick for 3 days.

Quote:

But back on the thread, let’s not get sidetracked, Now I will admit that I don’t know what a P-Value is and I don’t care to know. If you’re not making bets that are being rolled that P-Value doesn’t do a thing for you.

if you don't know what it means, but you dismiss it anyway? Wowee.

But, reading your screeds... yeah, there's no point you learning about it. It would be meaningless to the way -you- play.

Quote: Wizard

Personal insult -- three-day suspension. Also, please go easy on the bold font in the future.

If it is true, is it an insult ?

If there is proof that the Mad Professor is a fictional writer is it an insult ?

One thing i have found being on a number of different crap sites is that for the
most part, the farther you get away from serious discussions on the subject
the closer you get to a day care center and insults.

If you view the GTC discussion forum you see very few insults or people getting
their feeling hurt and feeling they have to respond in kind. This web site has a number
of good discussions and players, it also has a good number of people that really
are not interested in playing well, just playing.

The good shooter forum, well that is another thing altogether, that was designed as a schrine
to one person, and if you are a serious craps player and not willing to bow down and kiss
the ring, that is not a place for you.

the procraps forum has a ton of good information on craps and you dont see alot of
animosity on there, though it is not visited as much as i think it should be.

This particular forum is very hard on people that want to learn to influence the dice, and i
have to admit this baffles me, i have never seen so many get so excited about others
trying to get good at something.

SR has a thing with some of the writers of craps stuff. I can understand that, for people that
have played craps in the Vegas area, the writers and classes and all the people that come in
for the classes have changed many casino's attitude toward craps players.

Some writers have made claims that appear impossible and yet at the same time i have
seen reports that i know are true, that were also treated as impossible.

In the end craps is a game that nothing works all the time, no throw is perfect, no
bettting system is perfect and no one opinion of anything is perfect including the search for
the ever illusive P value. I was told i have the best P values ever seen, i thought i
had a prostate problem.

Maybe in the end we will decide we are all craps players and i am happy to win now and then
and i hope others do also, and i dont care much how others do it. For me i try to play in a
way i feel is best for me, and i dont really give a crap if some one else likes that or not.


So lets play the game

dicesetter