Hit my $2000 win limit. Stop or ride the streak?
$25 don't/$150 odds on the point. (no other #s)
lots of 7's and pressed it all the way to $100 don't/$600 odds.
Normally, my stop limit is double my buy-in or $0.
Buy-in is $2000.
So now i'm +$2000.
win= $500
lose= -$700
Logic says stop + walk away. Why risk $700 to win $500?
Any flaw in my logic?
or keep playing $100dont/600odds and hope for lots more 7s?
when the point repeats and I lose then I walk away.
Quote: JB85Leaving is not a bad idea. At all. But I would probably drop back down to the original bet and try to press it back up again. I would set a loss limit of $500 or so to make sure I walked with a nice profit.
I agree with JB85. Lock up your "win" and start a new "session". You can even double your base bets to start the new session, but be prepared to walk away at $0.
Can you elaborate? I must have missed something, I normally ignore craps talk. However if someone is claiming to be continually beating a craps machine, I will keep a skeptical, doubting open mind.Quote: DeMangoHow many more posts about a fake craps machine must we endure? Unless there is a flaw of course.
Quote: AxelWolfHowever if someone is claiming to be continually beating a craps machine, I will keep a skeptical, doubting open mind.
Well there haven't been any report of losses, so he must be making millions!
I just don't know the history on the situation do u have links to multiple claims of winning or him thinking he has an advantage. I know there has been situations where players have had advantages on E-tables. I assure you they didn't run to message boards asking for advice and or start telling everyone.Quote: DeMangoWell there haven't been any report of losses, so he must be making millions!
I have seen people do stranger things.
Quote: TheWolf713No point in having a win loss goal if you cant stick to it..
so I guess I need to change my win goal to something like this:
if up 1 buy-in, stop when I stop winning
ie: up +2000
risk $700 to win $500
if I lose, I walk away +1300. if I win, I keep playing till I lose
Quote: 100xOddsso I guess I need to change my win goal to something like this:
if up 1 buy-in, stop when I stop winning
ie: up +2000
risk $700 to win $500
if I lose, I walk away +1300. if I win, I keep playing till I lose
I suggest you only risk your original session bet ($25/$150). If you lose, walk. If you win, start your press strategy again until you lock up another $2k, then drop back to $25/$150. Never walk away from a hot streak, but be sure to, "harvest" your profit by limiting your exposure.
If you go to the tables and double your buy-in. You have done well.
If it took you longer than an hour to do, you are lucky,
If you think that staying at the table longer to " ride the streak" is a good idea, you will be loser
If you can't walk away when you are winning.... You will become a statistic.
You will be the guy who there to tell everybody else that there was a hot roll an hour ago, but you are down a couple grand right now.
Quote: IbeatyouracesMy signature says it all.
Maybe for you. I play mostly those dreaded negative ev slot machines, and if I didn't employ some kind of winning goals and stop playing limits at every machine I've played, I would not be ahead slightly over $160k lifetime. It ain't much overall, that's for sure, but I'd hate to think about where I'd be at playing them like nearly everyone else does.
If you are up $2,000 you might decide to risk $200 of that to win more... so you would put $1800 in your pocket not to be touched and keep playing $200 win, lose or draw.
If you win using that $200 you again put some of the win in your pocket and decide how much to risk.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhen I hit an initial win goal, I switch to a rising stop-loss limit. This is probably vey familiar to stock market investors.
If you are up $2,000 you might decide to risk $200 of that to win more... so you would put $1800 in your pocket not to be touched and keep playing $200 win, lose or draw.
If you win using that $200 you again put some of the win in your pocket and decide how much to risk.
I'm liking that Alan M. Has it been profitable for you overall?
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhen I hit an initial win goal, I switch to a rising stop-loss limit. This is probably vey familiar to stock market investors.
If you are up $2,000 you might decide to risk $200 of that to win more... so you would put $1800 in your pocket not to be touched and keep playing $200 win, lose or draw.
If you win using that $200 you again put some of the win in your pocket and decide how much to risk.
I guess i'm risking $700 and locking in $1300.
but doing the math of trying for $100dont/600odds:
lose- $1300
win once- $1800
win twice- 2300
so if I win once then lose, I'm still down $200. I need to win twice to have a slight profit.
walking away at +$2000 is beginning to look better and better?
Quote: 100xOddsI guess i'm risking $700 and locking in $1300.
but doing the math of trying for $100dont/600odds:
lose- $1300
win once- $1800
win twice- 2300
so if I win once then lose, I'm still down $200. I need to win twice to have a slight profit.
walking away at +$2000 is beginning to look better and better?
Playing any negative EV game, you will be better off not starting at all. Playing from the darkside means you will risk more to win less in each wager too.
Your wager doesn't have to be $100/$600... Unless the bet size is where the rush is for you. If that is the case, you may have a bigger problem...
Quote: tournamentkingI'm liking that Alan M. Has it been profitable for you overall?
As long as you keep the promise to yourself to hold on to the profit that you put in your pocket, you cannot lose.
Let me give you an example. You set a win goal of $500 and a nice win gives you $640. You put the $500 in your pocket (your initial win goal) and now you have $140 of "extra profit" to gamble with. With that $140 you have a rising stop loss. You say to yourself, "I will risk half of it" or $70. Once you lose $70 you leave. But if you a little more you say "I am now going to keep $80." And if you win again you raise it to $90.
But if at any point you fall back to your "stop loss" you leave.
the point of a rising stop loss is to let "good runs" continue.
But then I actually enjoy playing craps.
Quote: PBguyFor me it partly depends on how long I've been playing. If it took me 3 hours to reach the goal I would definitely walk away. If it took 30 minutes then I'd keep playing but drop my bet down to avoid risking too much of my profits.
But then I actually enjoy playing craps.
Imagine yourself getting into the ring with a world champion boxer (take your pick).
With all of the odds stacked against you, you end up landing blazing hook, and knock them out in the first round. You have won the fight. But for some reason you say to your self "Hey, I've already beat this guy, let me stay and finish the other 11 rounds. I've trained all year and came a long way to fight. I need more time."... So you hop right back in the ring with the same world champion boxer believing the same thing will continue to work to beat him again.
I totally understand and respect your decisions to play... But I just had to give this example to show how staying at a casino after a win can cost you.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAs long as you keep the promise to yourself to hold on to the profit that you put in your pocket, you cannot lose.
Let me give you an example. You set a win goal of $500 and a nice win gives you $640. You put the $500 in your pocket (your initial win goal) and now you have $140 of "extra profit" to gamble with. With that $140 you have a rising stop loss. You say to yourself, "I will risk half of it" or $70. Once you lose $70 you leave. But if you a little more you say "I am now going to keep $80." And if you win again you raise it to $90.
But if at any point you fall back to your "stop loss" you leave.
the point of a rising stop loss is to let "good runs" continue.
You already have an extra 140. So even if you believe you are "starting with a new bankroll of 140" you are still risking half of your bankroll. Im almost certain you would not recommend a person to play like this with their actual bank roll, so why would you play like this towards the end?
This is the equivalent of throwing a hail Mary during the 2 minute drill for all 4 downs.
I guess I would just take the knee and end the game with a win. expected 500, left with 640... sounds good to me
Quote: TheWolf713Imagine yourself getting into the ring with a world champion boxer (take your pick).
With all of the odds stacked against you, you end up landing blazing hook, and knock them out in the first round. You have won the fight. But for some reason you say to your self "Hey, I've already beat this guy, let me stay and finish the other 11 rounds. I've trained all year and came a long way to fight. I need more time."... So you hop right back in the ring with the same world champion boxer believing the same thing will continue to work to beat him again.
I totally understand and respect your decisions to play... But I just had to give this example to show how staying at a casino after a win can cost you.
And every single time the champ comes out of his corner, the judges give him a 1.52, a 4.00. or a 6.67 advantage.
Quote: TheWolf713Imagine yourself getting into the ring with a world champion boxer (take your pick).
With all of the odds stacked against you, you end up landing blazing hook, and knock them out in the first round. You have won the fight. But for some reason you say to your self "Hey, I've already beat this guy, let me stay and finish the other 11 rounds. I've trained all year and came a long way to fight. I need more time."... So you hop right back in the ring with the same world champion boxer believing the same thing will continue to work to beat him again.
I totally understand and respect your decisions to play... But I just had to give this example to show how staying at a casino after a win can cost you.
Oh I know quite well how deciding to stay can cost me. Or it can make me more money. Like I said I like to play craps and I'm pretty disciplined so I know there's no way I'd give it all back. I'm very good about walking away when I'm up.
Quote: TheWolf713
I guess I would just take the knee and end the game with a win. expected 500, left with 640... sounds good to me
So... youre playing craps and the shooter just hit another number and put more money into your rail surpassing your win goal. So what do you do? You take all your bets down? And then you stand there counting your profit while he shoots for another twenty minutes?
The idea of using a rising stop loss is simple: it allows you to lock in the profit you wanted and at the same time allows you to win more without touching the profit you set out to get.
