Theoritical Don't question

If:
1) They made the Don't not win or lose on the come out roll
2) They continued to pay even money on the don't for a win (the base bet, forget about laying odds for the moment)

Would the Don't become a positive expectation bet?

Yeah, that's why casinos don't do that.

Yes. 6&8 you win 6 times, lose 5. 5&9 you win 6 times and lose 4. 4&10 you win 6 times and lose 3. That's why it never makes sense to call "no action" on the DP once you get past the come out roll, and why the best bet you can make is to buy another don't bettors "no action" bet - assuming the house allows you to do that.

Quote: JeffR

If:
1) They made the Don't not win or lose on the come out roll
2) They continued to pay even money on the don't for a win (the base bet, forget about laying odds for the moment)

Would the Don't become a positive expectation bet?

Yes for the player.
Player advantage
sum the 3 results for each point set (group)

4&10
2/3 - 1/3 * 1/4 = 1/12
5&9
3/5 - 2/5 * 1/3 = 1/15
6&8
6/11 - 5/11 * 5/12 = 5/132
= 31/165
or
18.79%

Why would *They* want to do this for the player?

Quote: 7craps

Yes for the player.
Player advantage
sum the 3 results for each point set (group)

4&10
2/3 - 1/3 * 1/4 = 1/12
5&9
3/5 - 2/5 * 1/3 = 1/15
6&8
6/11 - 5/11 * 5/12 = 5/132
= 31/165
or
18.79%

Why would *They* want to do this for the player?

Was just exploring what gave the house it's advantage on the flat don't pass bet. It's the come out roll 7/11 that puts the house ahead over time I assume

Quote: JeffR

Was just exploring what gave the house it's advantage on the flat don't pass bet.
It's the come out roll 7/11 that puts the house ahead over time I assume

That advantage of 3/220 for the house comes from the outcome
of when a 12 rolls on the come out roll. (For the Bar 12 layouts)

The 12 is a loss for the pass line but is a push for the don't pass.

The house edge for the pass line is 7/495 and that would be the
player advantage if the rules for the don't pass did not contain a push event.

don't pass
7/495 or 0.014141414
player advantage without the Bar 12 push
prob of a push = 1/36 or 0.027777778

0.014141414 - 0.027777778 = -0.013636364 (-3/220)