My monotonous $70 win

I figured I'd share my weekend gambling experience with you folks.

Let me preface this by saying I am no gambler, so when I do gamble it is low budget. I play Craps or BJ exclusively when I'm in a casino.

The wife and I took a trip to Louisiana for some family visiting and fortunately there's a casino near by(Cypress Bayou in Baldwin, La.). I had her drop me off for a few hours, I think she dropped me off at about 4:30pm and we agreed that she'd pick me up at 7:30pm. I had $200, but $100 was really my gambling budget. I strolled over the craps table and watched for a while, probably 35 minutes. It was pretty choppy. Bought in with $60(of my $100). I played $5 DC with no odds (immediately after the shooter established a point-not that timing mattered) and I only had one (DC) bet up at a time-until resolved. I did not play DP(didn't want to be 'against' the shooter-we all know that's BS, but others don't). I had no other bets at all. I did this until the rent went up, which was at 6:00pm(table went to $10 min.). I walked away with my $60 and their $70. Drank beer and people watched for the next hour and a half until the wife arrived to pick me up. Boring play, but the characters at the table were fun to watch as they were throwing bets in the middle(and losing their shirts). One of the guys that was beside me kept saying he was playing with 'their' money. He had a pretty decent rack of chips; I checked on him about 30 minutes after I cashed out and his rack was pretty thin. He was playing with their money and now they're playing with his ;P.

I think I lost about 3 or 4 times. I got paid 2 or 3 times on 2's and/or 3's. There were a couple of 12's. <---For the math junkies if interested.

Before someone says you'd be better off playing max odds(I surely would have been with that session), but it could have wiped out my small bankroll very quickly too; I know what it does to the house edge. I think they offered 2X odds if I remember correctly.

To better than double my money in :45 I'm quite pleased. I got lucky.

The end.

That's a pretty good win for flat-betting $5.00 for that amount of time. It'd be a pretty simple matter to get a good idea of how likely your win was, given the amount of time you played. Do you recall how many total players were playing? I can use that question on Ask The Wizard over on WoO to get an approximation of how many rolls you should have seen in that hour and divide it by the expected number of rolls per resolution of a DC (Same as Don't Pass/Pass) to get an idea of how many bets you made during that time.

After doing that, it is a simple matter of setting that simulator to run that number of DC bets and to have a stop-win point of $70. In forty-five minutes, I wouldn't be surprised if you were under 10% to see that kind of win...maybe even longer odds than that.

Of course people came and left, but on average I would say there were 8 people, including myself. One guy was pretty slow when he got the dice, as in throw the dice goddammit slow, but the dealers didn't say anything to him. He was the want to be dice setter who probably had the worst rolls on the table.

Let's see:

If there were five players, then you should expect about 144 rolls per hour, it takes an average of 3.38 rolls for a DC bet to resolve, so you're looking at:

(144/3.38) * .75 = 31.9526627219...so call it 32 DC bets.

The .75 is because you played forty-five minutes, not an hour.

In order to have won $70, you must have won fourteen more bets than you lost, 23 wins against 9 losses. That table was ICE cold for the Come bettors!

Using this simulator:

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator_java.htm

I have programmed an initial buy-in of $60 wagering $160 based on my estimate of how many bets you made at $5 per wager. The stop-win point is set at $70.

The simulator seems to prefer, "Bet Made," to, "Bet resolved," in calculating the edge.

My 10% was WAY overshooting it.

In 1,000,000 runs, you were 42.70% to show any kind of gain and 8.15% to be dead even. Your average loss was $2.25 which jives with $160 * .140 (bet resolved) which equals an expected loss of $2.24. Interestingly, you were more likely to be ahead OR even par than you were to lose, barely.

You fell outside of the third Standard Deviation, specifically, 3.07, so that's extremely lucky. The probability of you having that kind of win with a stop-win of $70 is 0.62% or 1 in 162. 3.71% of players bust in this simulation.

Quote: Alan

Of course people came and left, but on average I would say there were 8 people, including myself. One guy was pretty slow when he got the dice, as in throw the dice goddammit slow, but the dealers didn't say anything to him. He was the want to be dice setter who probably had the worst rolls on the table.

Eight people and tons of center bets with a slow shooter? I'm going to have to re-run this simulation, you're taking a venture into the far reaches of probability, get ready!

Okay, for eight players, you're looking at about 129 rolls of the dice:

(129/3.38) * .75 = 28.624, call it 29 decisions.

29 * 5 = $135 bet

Same everything else.

The average loss is again, acceptable. The bust rate drops to 2.18%, the profit rate increases to 44.12% and the tie rate decreases to 6.10%...that's weird...The combined win and break even rates are still slightly over 50%, but a little less than before due to a slightly higher loss rate. That seems odd.

Anyway, the standard deviation is still over the third Standard Deviation at 3.05, the probability of such a win is 0.28%, or 1 in 363.

Well, nice work, $70 may not seem like a lot, but you had an extremely unlikely win, so congratulations! I like seeing unlikely things happen at the tables/machines as much as I enjoy winning, although, I must admit that I don't enjoy extremely unlikely things as much when it involves me losing quickly...

Edit: You said there was more than one 12, so I'm going to call it either three or one because the 29 bets doesn't make sense with fourteen wins over losses (21.5-7.5) and an even number of 12's. Let's say either 21-7-1 or 20-6-3!

So, I suppose that by them raising the minimum(forcing me to quit playing) is a blessing. I actually couldn't believe this was happening while I was playing. Alan wins again, Alan wins again. I have been clobbered at the craps table in the past so this was a feel good moment.

Does that simulation give you the numbers, specifically the 2's and 3's which may substantiate my recollection? Just curious.

I think only one 12 that sounds correct. I know for sure that there were at least one of each 2 and 3. But I want to say that there were two of one of those numbers, don't recall if it was the 2 or the 3 that appeared twice.

Quote: Alan

meone says you'd be better off playing max odds(I surely would have been with that session), but it could have wiped out my small bankroll very quickly too; I know what it does to the house edge. I think they offered 2X odds if I remember correctly.

Very wise. Playing the odds doesn't change the cost of betting (the absolute EV is static) but it does increase the variance. If you don't want to spend $15 per DC bet, don't. If you do, use the x2 Odds.

It's all about whether the $5 is enough action for you. You are already using the word 'monotonous'.

If you are not really a gambler, maybe you'll be satisfied. For myself, being able to report here about my wagers etc is actually part of the incentive. It would seem that may be true for you as well. If so, I predict you increase your betting.

I figured it would be monotonous and boring to most here. It's fine with me. I enjoy the game and its workings and watching people play it, but I'm also aware of the math behind it and I know it can bite. I often wonder how many people that play the game actually know even a portion of the math. Presumably the folks throwing all their chips in the center of the table don't or perhaps they do and that's just the way they like to play.

They had a layout on the table where you could bet easy four, six, eight and 10 along with the standard stuff that's in the middle of the table. I've never seen that before.

Quote: Alan

Does that simulation give you the numbers, specifically the 2's and 3's which may substantiate my recollection? Just curious.

Unfortunately not. You just put in the probabilities of each event and it does the rest. You could put the probabilities of the 2's and 3's separately, but even if you did the result would be +1 on the CO, which is the same result (+1) as any other win, so it wouldn't separate it out in any way.

Quote: Alan

So, I suppose that by them raising the minimum(forcing me to quit playing) is a blessing. I actually couldn't believe this was happening while I was playing. Alan wins again, Alan wins again. I have been clobbered at the craps table in the past so this was a feel good moment.

Does that simulation give you the numbers, specifically the 2's and 3's which may substantiate my recollection? Just curious.

You never know if it was a blessing or not. Even though you beat the odds terrifically, you did not approach what could be called the, "Long-term," by any stretch.

I've actually given a lot of thought recently to what might constitute the long-term. It's kind of a subjective term because it doesn't seem as though there is any set point at which you've hit the long-term. Although, they say, "Nobody wins a negative expectation game in the long run," so then I think that it is the point where, literally (given an infinite bankroll) not one single player is ahead.

I consider that a somewhat impractical definition, though, because you'd often go past the point that most people will even have the opportunity to play in their lives, in terms of number of bets. I think that my personal definition of the long-term will be one of 99%. In a negative expectation game, the long-term will be when less than 1% are ahead, and for a positive expectation game, when less than 1% are behind. The actual number of bets will vary depending on what the game is, of course, the lottery game, POWERBALL, would be a good example of a game in which you'd hit the long-term rather quickly, pursuant to my definition.

Anyway, I guess my point is that the sample size is limited enough that you could have continued to win, the Win + Push probability for your next bet was 50.71%, in any event.

You also mentioned that you don't gamble much, you can usually at least try to request being, "Grandfathered," in at the previous minimum. The worst they could do is say no.

I'd like to see these odds on the Wizard of odds site on the craps chart:

They had a layout on the table where you could bet easy four, six, eight and 10.

I know it's not common to offer it, but it was.

Quote: Alan

I'd like to see these odds on the Wizard of odds site on the craps chart:

They had a layout on the table where you could bet easy four, six, eight and 10.

I know it's not common to offer it, but it was.

If I may be so bold, that's a piece of cake to figure out. I assume you lose on a Hardway or a Seven, so what are the pays on each?

Screw it, I don't need them.

There are two Easy Tens, one Hard Ten, Six Sevens, it pays 3:1.

2/9 * 3 = .6666666666667

7/9 * -1 = -.777777777778

The House Edge is 11.1111111111%

There are four Easy Sixes, one Hard Six, Six Sevens, it pays 1.5:1.

4/11 * 1.5 = .54545454545454

7/11 * -1 = .63636363636363

.6363636363636363 - .5454545454545454

The House Edge is 9.0909091%

EDIT: Same HE as the Hardway, if my payouts are right.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: Alan

I'd like to see these odds on the Wizard of odds site on the craps chart:

They had a layout on the table where you could bet easy four, six, eight and 10.

I know it's not common to offer it, but it was.

If I may be so bold, that's a piece of cake to figure out. I assume you lose on a Hardway or a Seven, so what are the pays on each?

Yep, just like the hard way, but opposite. I don't do the math. That's why all you folks are here ;-). I'm not sure what the payoffs were, but I don't believe you need those to figure the odds. My understanding(which may be wrong) is you figure out what the true odds are and you payoff short to get the house edge, no? Like with a hard way 6/8 true odds are 10:1, but payoff only 9:1 to get the 9% edge.

Quote: Alan

Yep, just like the hard way, but opposite. I don't do the math. That's why all you folks are here ;-). I'm not sure what the payoffs were, but I don't believe you need those to figure the odds. My understanding(which may be wrong) is you figure out what the true odds are and you payoff short to get the house edge, no? Like with a hard way 6/8 true odds are 10:1, but payoff only 9:1 to get the 9% edge.

I assumed some Pays, and I think they are right, because they'd reflect the same HE as a Hardway bet on the same number.

Your understanding is partially right, it's true that you pay off short, but there's always the question of, "How short?" You can Double both the 12 and 2 on the Field for a House Edge of 5.56%, for example, the standard triples one or the other for 2.78% and the Santa Ana Star has a 0 edge Field, tripling both the 12 and 2.

Casinos have also been known to pay anywhere from 29-to-1 to 33-to-1 on Snake Eyes, Midnight and the Hard Hops, so at best, the HE is 5.56% and 16.67% at worst...that's a huge difference.

So, yeah, it's all about short pays, but to what extent is the player being shorted?

EDIT: Oh yeah, I don't need the Pays to tell you the probability of winning v. that of losing, but they are imperative in calculating House Edge.

Quote: Mission146

The average loss is again, acceptable. The bust rate drops to 2.18%, the profit rate increases to 44.12% and the tie rate decreases to 6.10%...that's weird...The combined win and break even rates are still slightly over 50%, but a little less than before due to a slightly higher loss rate. That seems odd.

I figured this one out, and it was really simple. It was odd that the loss rate is slightly higher, but not strange. You have an odd number of bets compared to an even number of bets and some of those (both on the 29 and 32) aren't going to have a 12.

Am I missing something?

OK, so I don't play those bets. Maybe I am missing something through inattention for that reason.

But I could swear the Easy 4,6, 8,10 bets are in the middle of *every* Craps table. No?

No, those are the Hardways. Technically, you could probably Hop the 3-1/6-4 or the 5-3+2-6/1-5+2-4, as appropriate, but that would be a one-roll resolution bet.

Quote: Mission146

EDIT: Oh yeah, I don't need the Pays to tell you the probability of winning v. that of losing, but they are imperative in calculating House Edge.

That's what I thought. That's what I was after, the probability, not necessarily the HE. The HE is too much of a variable depending on how bad they want to rip you off on the payoff.

Thank you.

Is it specifically "Easy 4" or are you referring to the 3/1 Hop bet?

Quote: wudged

Is it specifically "Easy 4" or are you referring to the 3/1 Hop bet?

I honestly don't remember since I do not touch the middle of the table, but I do want to say that it is the easy way 4/6/8/10(not hopping). I'll try to pay more attention next time I'm there; I should have this time since it was uncommon for me to see this offered.

Quote: Mission146

No, those are the Hardways.

Of course. Duh.

This seems extremely unusual. Could this be a regional thing?

I'm not sure, I don't believe I've heard of such a bet until yesterday, but it kind of makes sense if I'm right about what the pays are.

On the other hand, those aren't exactly big pays, makes more sense just to place/buy as appropriate if one is considering making that bet. Although, some people will bet anything at the Craps Table. I'm half convinced that if you made a, "13," bet and had it pay 100-to-1, it would get a little bit of action...j/k


EDIT: Actually, Alan, you could probably call the casino and check. If you want to PM me the name of the casino for privacy, (pursuant to the PM Confidentiality Rule, I could not re-post the name of the casino, unless I heard of the same bet at that casino through a different source) then I'm happy to call and check it and get the pays.

I don't recall hearing anyone bet those, just that they were available and had their spot on the table. There's always somebody betting the hardways, like another guy next to me-of course he's the farthest from the center as you could get so he could throw chips.

Quote: Mission146

EDIT: Actually, Alan, you could probably call the casino and check. If you want to PM me the name of the casino for privacy, (pursuant to the PM Confidentiality Rule, I could not re-post the name of the casino, unless I heard of the same bet at that casino through a different source) then I'm happy to call and check it and get the pays.

I sent them an email yesterday about it. The name of the casino is in my original post. I guess officially it's in Charenton, La.

Quote: Alan

I sent them an email yesterday about it. The name of the casino is in my original post. I guess officially it's in Charenton, La.

So it is, my apologies.

I called the Cypress Bayou Casino asking to be transferred to Table Games, was transferred and answered nearly immediately, but informed that no such bet exists there. The Table Games Supervisor (if that was the title of the person I spoke to) first thought I might be referring to one-roll Hops, then suggested I might mean Place Bets. When I explained specifically what an, "Easy Way," bet would consist of, she said they don't have that.

So, that leaves us with two possibilities:

A.) Perhaps there is a spot on their layout where you can more easily Hop the Easy 4's, 6's, 8's and 10's. You might call, "Hop the Easy Sixes," and then toss in two Whites, which would both go to that spot on the table, rather than each hop bet individually.

B.) The individual to whom I spoke was mistaken, but I doubt that one, she seemed friendly and highly competent. I'll call this evening and almost certainly speak to someone else so I can be sure. I'll also remember to ask if they have a special spot on the layout where Easy Hop Bets go for 4/10 and if someone wants to cover both ways of 6/8.

Okay, I guess I was mistaken then. Sorry for the trouble. Next time I go, which isn't very often, I am going to eyeball the table in the a.m. when nobody is playing so I can stand where the stick stands and won't miss a thing.

There's no trouble, that's one of the reasons I'm here! I like calling and finding out about stuff, my triple-play package has unlimited long-distance, might as well use it. I won't even use an 800-NUMBER if there is a long-distance one to call, I have to feel like I'm getting my money's worth.

Maybe I should compare answer times one day on the 800-NUMBER vs. direct lines for casinos, or for something else. Sample size of 500 each. Do you think anyone would pay for such a study?

One thing I' m very sure of is my win, which is really the only thing that counts. Although I must admit that I am kind of embarrassed about being wrong on the 'easy way' bet offered.

Quote: Alan

One thing I' m very sure of is my win,

are you sure?
you have been wrong many times before using your memory only.

you seem to not be sure about much from your session.

a small notepad and pencil easily remedies the 'not sure' syndrome.
ask ME he knows

Quote: Alan

which is really the only thing that counts.

maybe for you, but No, you are totally mistaken IMO

What counts is if you had a good bet or not.

Looks like you just got very lucky, but not out of this world lucky

But you do not even know how many bets you even made.
Next time change that fact!

Quote: Alan

Although I must admit that I am kind of embarrassed about being wrong on the 'easy way' bet offered.

"being wrong"
we all take that road at times

Good Luck in your life long session of play

Yes, I'm sure about what I cashed in at the cage and since I don't bet the middle of the table(for good reason) it was a 'nonchalant' look and I thought it was an odd offering(which I mentioned) and was obviously wrong about. I won't be carrying a notepad to the craps table, but thanks for the tip. I was wrong 'many' times before? I'll have to revisit my original post.

Apparently with that session, all of the bets were as good as they could get(and betting wrong is a better bet than betting right, by a hair) barring(no crap table terminology intended) any insight using a crystal ball before the come out roll. Did you read that I bought in for $60 and won $70? I was lucky, thanks for concurring with that.

I don't know how many bets I made and I really don't care; it's insignificant for my purpose...point established...don't come bet placed...wait 'til resolved...repeat. I don't think I claimed how many were made either... just my M/O and for how long I was at the table 40-45 minutes.

My sessions are few and far between since I live in Texas and the politicians would rather us travel to Louisiana or Oklahoma to gamble, it's not worth the trip for me unless there's an ulterior motive to go to either state.

Thanks for the good luck.