Can't figure this out...
August 8th, 2013 at 10:54:07 AM
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Okay first off, I'm brand new to craps and some of the math that's floating around just doesn't sink in with me at all :(
Like everyone else, I'm trying to create a betting system that works for me and my preferences. I believe that no matter how many times we play craps it will never be close to computer sims. This is because life is too short and unless this is the matrix what happens in our world is not the same as in a computers. I'm aware that the math says that no system can beat the house odds, but that's why I'm a fan of taking my bets down within a reasonable time period, thanks WatchMeWin.
***Here is my problem:
(to which I remain a dunce at understanding probabilities so if someone can kindly explain in layman's terms I would highly appreciate it)
If I place six bets across, I have a 80% (24/30) chance to hit one point. What if every time I hit one point, I took all my bets down and waited until the next come out roll to repeat my bet.
For example, if I put $128 across I would win on average 30.6 (184/6) dollars 80% of the time. Over the long term I believe I would stand to lose something like 6.4 dollars. Please stop me here if I did/say something drastically wrong.
Now here is the twist, what If I placed the $128 across and instead of taking it off after one hit I periodically took it off after the second or third hit. Additionally, since the average person sevens out after six roles, what If I dropped my bets before this number of rolls? Will this make up for that 6.4 dollar loss, add further loss, or possibly (not likely) create a gain?
Please excuse my ignorance with the game of craps, I'm a brand new player. I love the game so I wish to excel at it to the best of my ability while staying true to my betting preferences. Any advice/tips are very much appreciated.
Like everyone else, I'm trying to create a betting system that works for me and my preferences. I believe that no matter how many times we play craps it will never be close to computer sims. This is because life is too short and unless this is the matrix what happens in our world is not the same as in a computers. I'm aware that the math says that no system can beat the house odds, but that's why I'm a fan of taking my bets down within a reasonable time period, thanks WatchMeWin.
***Here is my problem:
(to which I remain a dunce at understanding probabilities so if someone can kindly explain in layman's terms I would highly appreciate it)
If I place six bets across, I have a 80% (24/30) chance to hit one point. What if every time I hit one point, I took all my bets down and waited until the next come out roll to repeat my bet.
For example, if I put $128 across I would win on average 30.6 (184/6) dollars 80% of the time. Over the long term I believe I would stand to lose something like 6.4 dollars. Please stop me here if I did/say something drastically wrong.
Now here is the twist, what If I placed the $128 across and instead of taking it off after one hit I periodically took it off after the second or third hit. Additionally, since the average person sevens out after six roles, what If I dropped my bets before this number of rolls? Will this make up for that 6.4 dollar loss, add further loss, or possibly (not likely) create a gain?
Please excuse my ignorance with the game of craps, I'm a brand new player. I love the game so I wish to excel at it to the best of my ability while staying true to my betting preferences. Any advice/tips are very much appreciated.
August 8th, 2013 at 11:07:13 AM
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On a single bet of $128 across ($20 / $20 / $24 / $24 / $20 / $20), the result would be (for each result)
-128 x 6/30
+36 x 6/30
+28 x 8/30
+28 x 10/30
Expected loss = -$1.60 per resolution.
You'd do better at buying the 4/10 and the 5/9 if you only play the vig on the win.
-128 x 6/30
+36 x 6/30
+28 x 8/30
+28 x 10/30
Expected loss = -$1.60 per resolution.
You'd do better at buying the 4/10 and the 5/9 if you only play the vig on the win.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
August 8th, 2013 at 11:17:27 AM
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Excellent and we all have been there. Maybe not ME.Quote: friendlydiceOkay first off, I'm brand new to craps and some of the math that's floating around just doesn't sink in with me at all :(
again, excellent.Quote: friendlydiceLike everyone else, I'm trying to create a betting system that works for me and my preferences.
Your belief is 100% wrong and here is why.Quote: friendlydiceI believe that no matter how many times we play craps it will never be close to computer sims.
This is because life is too short and unless this is the matrix what happens in our world is not the same as in a computers. I'm aware that the math says that no system can beat the house odds, but that's why I'm a fan of taking my bets down within a reasonable time period, thanks WatchMeWin.
one needs to understand averages and variance or they will be forever lost
in the fog of gambling.
computer models (simulations) will give you an average result from any style of play over any period of time
way faster and more accurate than any human can do.
That is only half of the beauty.
How far from average can one expect to be over a certain amount of lifetime bets made?
the computer wins over a human calculation based from actual play
the math may say the average loss over time to be -$45 (the mean)
but it will also tell us (IF we ask it) what the spread around that average is.
(variance or standard deviation - how much we can deviate from the average)
say, a standard deviation of $167
example:
100 coin flips fair coin
Everyone says we expect 50 heads and 50 tails.
Sorry to disappoint.
Try it out and see you end up with different results the majority of time.
But if you knew the standard deviation was 5, now we can deal with the possible RANGE of results (outcomes)
without getting pissed off at the maths.
So, learn EV and Variance and how to use them
and you will be so far ahead from those who trust only their experiences during play.
This also takes away the superstitions of the game.
As to your math question, I leave that to others
Good Luck in your Craps journey.
again,
IMO
it is a win/win
when you learn expected value and variance
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
August 8th, 2013 at 11:25:25 AM
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Thanks a bunch for the reply 7craps!
You're right, I think it would be wise to learn EV and Variance. For now I will just google it but if you have a nice source that is easy to understand I would appreciate it.
It's still hard for me to believe computer results considering I'm in the very extreme short term position of my gambling life, but I am always open to challenging my beliefs, for how could we ever change and improve without doing so? :)
You're right, I think it would be wise to learn EV and Variance. For now I will just google it but if you have a nice source that is easy to understand I would appreciate it.
It's still hard for me to believe computer results considering I'm in the very extreme short term position of my gambling life, but I am always open to challenging my beliefs, for how could we ever change and improve without doing so? :)
August 8th, 2013 at 11:37:31 AM
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I've used a similar system. When it works, it's a beautiful thing. But just 1 or 2 two-roll shooters, and you're wiped out.
I wrote about it here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/1907-how-to-win-at-a-cold-craps-and-be-ready-when-it-turns-hot/
I wrote about it here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/1907-how-to-win-at-a-cold-craps-and-be-ready-when-it-turns-hot/
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 8th, 2013 at 11:42:45 AM
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Quote: friendlydiceThanks a bunch for the reply 7craps!
You're right, I think it would be wise to learn EV and Variance. For now I will just google it but if you have a nice source that is easy to understand I would appreciate it.
It's still hard for me to believe computer results considering I'm in the very extreme short term position of my gambling life, but I am always open to challenging my beliefs, for how could we ever change and improve without doing so? :)
The computer results can easily simulate a 10 roll session as well as a 100,000 roll session.
Modelling a set of short-term (1 days play) result is (for me) more illuminating than a 100 million results.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 8th, 2013 at 11:50:31 AM
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HOUSE EDGE FOR EVERY SINGLE BET IN CRAPS
The house edge for the 6 & 8 ain't too bad, but it's terrible for the rest of the box numbers.
If you bet the table minimum on the pass line with 10x odds, the house edge is only 0.184%.
If you bet the table minimum on the don't with 10x odds, the house edge is even lower at 0.128%.
Sticking to only the don't or pass with 10x odds is working great for me in both practice sessions and in the casino.
I guarantee no other system will work better in the long run, unless you can afford betting bigger odds.
The house edge for the 6 & 8 ain't too bad, but it's terrible for the rest of the box numbers.
If you bet the table minimum on the pass line with 10x odds, the house edge is only 0.184%.
If you bet the table minimum on the don't with 10x odds, the house edge is even lower at 0.128%.
Sticking to only the don't or pass with 10x odds is working great for me in both practice sessions and in the casino.
I guarantee no other system will work better in the long run, unless you can afford betting bigger odds.
August 8th, 2013 at 12:07:06 PM
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Exactly.Quote: thecesspitModelling a set of short-term (1 days play) result is (for me)
more illuminating than a 100 million results.
But when you simulate a 4 hour session (1 day)
for example, as you know,
do it (sim it) 100 million times. (or 10 million times)
not 100 times
or 25 times or even 10 times.
The larger the simulation
the more accurate the results will be and the smaller the standard error will be.
This is a proven fact if life.
Now the results returned with the larger run sim, especially the average and the standard deviation,
is your friend.
No more superstition to the game.
You now know the possible range of results you can expect from your style of play.
Fun when the math also arrives at the same results.
Do not expect 10 sessions of 4 hours of play from 1 player
to show what 1 million other players might expect playing the same way.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
August 8th, 2013 at 2:04:20 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearI've used a similar system. When it works, it's a beautiful thing. But just 1 or 2 two-roll shooters, and you're wiped out.
I wrote about it here:
But what if you took those shooters out of the equation by only betting after the 2nd, 3rd or 4th throw? Survival goes down, but so does the chance you will land a seven on every roll after that right?
August 8th, 2013 at 2:13:43 PM
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Quote: friendlydiceBut what if you took those shooters out of the equation by only betting after the 2nd, 3rd or 4th throw? Survival goes down, but so does the chance you will land a seven on every roll after that right?
Nope, all rolls are independent. The dice don't know whether it's the 2nd roll or the 222nd roll, so the chances of rolling a 7 are the same on roll #3 and roll #223.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
August 8th, 2013 at 2:20:57 PM
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delete. figured out my answer.
August 8th, 2013 at 2:23:03 PM
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Hmm I'm glad you said that, I must be misinterpreting what's in this link then:
If dice have no memory how can this exist? Sorry if this seems painfully obvious to everyone, I'm pretty slow when it comes to this stuff unfortunately :(
If dice have no memory how can this exist? Sorry if this seems painfully obvious to everyone, I'm pretty slow when it comes to this stuff unfortunately :(
August 8th, 2013 at 2:39:32 PM
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friendlydice.....once you have all the numbers covered your screwed, especially if your hopeful and excited.. Remember the dice can see and hear you. The dice will find 36 ways from Sunday to clear all players from the table with no money in the rack. Vicious game.
Each day is better than the next
August 8th, 2013 at 2:44:40 PM
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Quote: friendlydiceIf dice have no memory how can this exist? Sorry if this seems painfully obvious to everyone, I'm pretty slow when it comes to this stuff unfortunately :(
The difference is that those are probabilities before the shooter has thrown the dice. But once the shooter throws the dice, the chances of him/her rolling a 7 are the same on each throw.
For example, if I roll a 5 on the 1st roll, the chances of me rolling a 7 on the 2nd roll is 1 in 6.
And if I roll a 6 on the 2nd roll, the chances of me rolling a 7 on the 3rd roll is still 1 in 6.
And if I roll a 4 on the 3rd roll, the chances of me rolling a 7 on the 4th roll is still 1 in 6.
And so on...
Fighting BS one post at a time!
August 8th, 2013 at 3:02:10 PM
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Quote: friendlydiceHmm I'm glad you said that, I must be misinterpreting what's in this link then:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/number-of-rolls/
If dice have no memory how can this exist? Sorry if this seems painfully obvious to everyone, I'm pretty slow when it comes to this stuff unfortunately :(
friendly,
I could be wrong, but the difference is, the tables illustrate the law of very large numbers, where the probability of something happening in a trend of more than one throw increasingly steers towards the theoretical mean, and the chance of you bucking that trend decreases accordingly. However, the results of any single occurence remain the same, as in, getting a 7 is 1 in 6 rolls.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
August 8th, 2013 at 3:09:24 PM
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Depending on what column you're looking at, it's effectively a table of 'What are the odds of throwing a 7 EXACTLY on this turn?' or 'What are the odds of surviving this many turns?'
Taking an ideal, ordinary coinflip, there's a 50/50 shot of it coming up heads or tails on every given throw. Two flips, and you end up with a distribution like HH/TH:HT/TT, or 25/50/25. The odds of getting two heads in a row is 25%... but the odds of getting EXACTLY two heads in a row would be that 25%, plus a failing a third 50%.
However, each flip still have a 50% chance.
Taking an ideal, ordinary coinflip, there's a 50/50 shot of it coming up heads or tails on every given throw. Two flips, and you end up with a distribution like HH/TH:HT/TT, or 25/50/25. The odds of getting two heads in a row is 25%... but the odds of getting EXACTLY two heads in a row would be that 25%, plus a failing a third 50%.
However, each flip still have a 50% chance.
August 8th, 2013 at 3:15:20 PM
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Assume UK odds - suppose you wanted to win an amount and take the bet down after one roll. Essentially you win on 4,5,6,8,9,10 (P=4/6), lose on 7 (P=1/6) and standoff on 2,3,11,12 (P=1/6), I'm going to assume you stop after one standoff roll rather than wait until an outcome one way or the other.
The maths is easier if you wanted to win £133 as your bets would of £70(4/10),£95(5/9),£114(6/8) would each pay £133 (19/10, 7/5, 7/6).
For each 36 throws, 6 are standoff, 6 each lose £558, 24 each win £133 - so the total loss over 36 rolls is -£156 (i.e. £4.33 per roll). If you decided to take the win/standoff and leave the bets active, then each further roll costs you £4.33 (or 77.6p per £100 bet).
The maths is easier if you wanted to win £133 as your bets would of £70(4/10),£95(5/9),£114(6/8) would each pay £133 (19/10, 7/5, 7/6).
For each 36 throws, 6 are standoff, 6 each lose £558, 24 each win £133 - so the total loss over 36 rolls is -£156 (i.e. £4.33 per roll). If you decided to take the win/standoff and leave the bets active, then each further roll costs you £4.33 (or 77.6p per £100 bet).
August 8th, 2013 at 3:21:19 PM
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Quote: VenthusDepending on what column you're looking at, it's effectively a table of 'What are the odds of throwing a 7 EXACTLY on this turn?' or 'What are the odds of surviving this many turns?'
Taking an ideal, ordinary coinflip, there's a 50/50 shot of it coming up heads or tails on every given throw. Two flips, and you end up with a distribution like HH/TH:HT/TT, or 25/50/25. The odds of getting two heads in a row is 25%... but the odds of getting EXACTLY two heads in a row would be that 25%, plus a failing a third 50%.
However, each flip still have a 50% chance.
A light bulb went on somewhere! But it was more like a flicker.
This explains it nicely, and now I'm starting to understand the previous posts.
But does this mean putting stock in average throws per person and seven out's is not beneficial?
August 8th, 2013 at 3:35:02 PM
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Yes - it's all luck.
The only thing you can be sure of is which are the less likely to lose on your odds or lay bets after the come-out. But they all are more likely to lose than to win.
The only thing you can be sure of is which are the less likely to lose on your odds or lay bets after the come-out. But they all are more likely to lose than to win.
August 8th, 2013 at 3:40:07 PM
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Quote: friendlydiceBut does this mean putting stock in average throws per person and seven out's is not beneficial?
Yeah, basically.
Well... we all have our own 'thing' though, and limits we place on ourselves can keep us from big losses. (While, simultaneously, big wins.) By stopping at, say, the 6th roll, it prevents the eventual seven-out from stinging, while still having action on the first few. Me, I raise my bets a unit from the 2nd to the 4th time it hits, and take it down after the fifth. No real mathematical grounding for it, but it works (or doesn't, as my track record might suggest...) for me.
August 8th, 2013 at 4:08:00 PM
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Quote: friendlydiceBut does this mean putting stock in average throws per person and seven out's is not beneficial?
Unfortunately, yes.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
August 8th, 2013 at 5:06:04 PM
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Hmm I guess my next question is what is the best betting strategy that minimizes the house advantage the most? And why aren't we all using it?
It's fun to use or come up with other peoples strategy for betting at craps but what's the point if all it comes down to is house edge/computer sims.
It's fun to use or come up with other peoples strategy for betting at craps but what's the point if all it comes down to is house edge/computer sims.
August 8th, 2013 at 5:09:29 PM
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Taking somebody else's odds. 0% edge, if they let you.
Me, I typically go 3x because I don't want too much exposed at a given time. And I go in with a tiny bankroll, compared to what you're supposed to, on craps. In most places, that leaves 2x available for grabs. Want it?
Me, I typically go 3x because I don't want too much exposed at a given time. And I go in with a tiny bankroll, compared to what you're supposed to, on craps. In most places, that leaves 2x available for grabs. Want it?
August 8th, 2013 at 5:45:08 PM
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Like it shows on the Wizard of Odds, playing the Pass Line/Don't Pass & taking/laying max odds (assuming you have a big enough bankroll to withstand the swings) is a good bet.Quote: friendlydiceHmm I guess my next question is what is the best betting strategy that minimizes the house advantage the most?
We do! At least the 'smart' gamblers—like the people you'll find on this forum—do.Quote: friendlydiceAnd why aren't we all using it?
(OK, OK...'smart gambler' is an oxymoron, I know...haha)
Yep, that's why craps is a complete waste of time if you're looking to consistently make money.Quote: friendlydiceIt's fun to use or come up with other peoples strategy for betting at craps but what's the point if all it comes down to is house edge/computer sims.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
August 8th, 2013 at 6:02:50 PM
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The best bet with the lowest house edge is the pass line or come line with the most "free odds" the house allows. That's it. Boring and simple. And you'll never make it advantageous if you're a random roller. You will lose eventually.
Beethoven was the closest to steering you into understanding why the odds of a long roll becoming lower the longer you go without bringing up "nth" degrees. Those are charts based on previous rolls. And if you say, "once I establish a point, what are the odds I won't roll a seven after 'x' rolls," then everything is dependent upon that first roll and the percentages get compounded and start to dwindle away to nothing. However, they are all independent, and they don't know what rolled or what should., If I were someone who wasn't a consistent craps player I would ignore them and hope for the best. Because in your small number of rolls (compared to infinity or convergence) you might never roll a seven, and the casino might have to kick you out, or you could end up owning the place, before you seven out. Won't happen, but hopefully that helps without mathematic equations being involved. Pass and come with max odds (the dark side is slightly better, but you lose your roll if you win, essentially) if you can afford it.
Beethoven was the closest to steering you into understanding why the odds of a long roll becoming lower the longer you go without bringing up "nth" degrees. Those are charts based on previous rolls. And if you say, "once I establish a point, what are the odds I won't roll a seven after 'x' rolls," then everything is dependent upon that first roll and the percentages get compounded and start to dwindle away to nothing. However, they are all independent, and they don't know what rolled or what should., If I were someone who wasn't a consistent craps player I would ignore them and hope for the best. Because in your small number of rolls (compared to infinity or convergence) you might never roll a seven, and the casino might have to kick you out, or you could end up owning the place, before you seven out. Won't happen, but hopefully that helps without mathematic equations being involved. Pass and come with max odds (the dark side is slightly better, but you lose your roll if you win, essentially) if you can afford it.
August 8th, 2013 at 6:05:49 PM
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Sorry to reiterate beethoven
August 9th, 2013 at 3:06:48 AM
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delete
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 9th, 2013 at 3:20:16 AM
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Quote: HexDiceyou might never roll a seven, and the casino might have to kick you out, or you could end up owning the place, before you seven out
or you might immediately roll a 7 and keep doing this "point-seven-out" and the casino might wind up owning your bankroll
guess which possibility is more likely
clearly you know that, so I don't quite get why anyone would dwell on this infinitesimally small chance of almost never rolling a 7-out
_
as for being able to max out on very generous free odds, Wincraps has shown it is possible to be a lifetime winner for anyone conducting anything like a normal number of craps sessions, including someone who is a "regular" . The odds need to be 10x or 20x or more. This again, though, is hardly worth mentioning ... sound advice has to be, "don't expect this". Frankly, you need to be a whale to even try, the bankroll required being quite daunting. And we know whales aren't this kind of bettor.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 9th, 2013 at 8:18:00 AM
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This whole dodging the PSO seems to be a popular thing! I just said on another thread that a friend of mine is on this kick where he bets $5.00 PL with a $1.00 Crap Check, then if a point is established, Places either $78 or $81 (depending on the point) across while taking $10 odds on the point. If the next resolution roll is a Seven, he clearly loses. If it is a Placed Number, then he takes down all Place Bets and sees how his Point w/Odds goes, if it is the Point, he wins on that and all Place Bets come down.
I believe that AHigh, on his Forum, has stated that his current method of ducking the Seven is to Establish a Point and then bet one unit more on a Come Bet, if it travels, then he bets one unit more than his total units out on another Come Bet. That may not be exactly right, I only read his Forum every couple days, and that's just skimming...
The PSO is the only way he (my friend, not AHigh, AHigh gets killed on Crap Numbers) loses money on this play, overall. I guess he's ahead so far, or so he claims, (I have no reason to suspect he is lying) but the PSO's will get him eventually. He's risking a larger amount to win a smaller amount at a higher probability of winning, fundamentally no different than a betting system such as the Martingale or Labouchere'...just his bet amounts don't change. The goal is effectively the same.
Anyway, you're wondering whether you should go one hit and down, two hits and down, or whatever. The answer is: It doesn't matter. In the long run, each bet carries the same House Edge per roll or per resolution. In the short run, by taking everything down after a hit, you'll either win or lose money slower because you are not exposing the money on every roll. In the long run, you'll lose, but slower for the same reason.
I believe that AHigh, on his Forum, has stated that his current method of ducking the Seven is to Establish a Point and then bet one unit more on a Come Bet, if it travels, then he bets one unit more than his total units out on another Come Bet. That may not be exactly right, I only read his Forum every couple days, and that's just skimming...
The PSO is the only way he (my friend, not AHigh, AHigh gets killed on Crap Numbers) loses money on this play, overall. I guess he's ahead so far, or so he claims, (I have no reason to suspect he is lying) but the PSO's will get him eventually. He's risking a larger amount to win a smaller amount at a higher probability of winning, fundamentally no different than a betting system such as the Martingale or Labouchere'...just his bet amounts don't change. The goal is effectively the same.
Anyway, you're wondering whether you should go one hit and down, two hits and down, or whatever. The answer is: It doesn't matter. In the long run, each bet carries the same House Edge per roll or per resolution. In the short run, by taking everything down after a hit, you'll either win or lose money slower because you are not exposing the money on every roll. In the long run, you'll lose, but slower for the same reason.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 9th, 2013 at 10:13:42 AM
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After only 20 sessions at live tables & innumerable sim games, I've concluded what many others have concluded & saying about this game: No one knows or can predict when the 7 shows, whether on the come-out, or the point hand. That's what all the math is about: the PROBABILITY, not a CERTAINTY of a winning number hitting, or the 7 shows. And, for me, probability is fine. I know the chances of the numbers showing, given the 36 possibilities on a roll of dice. I know some bets are better than others re: HA, etc.
But, it all comes down to that question: WHEN will the 7 show? Not IF, but WHEN. There's no way to know or predict this, based on past performance, like many have said. That's why craps is a gambling game. You can do your best to devise a strategy that you are satisfied with, but that strategy has to one of maximizing wins & limiting losses, as well as good money management. But, there are times even one's best strategy fails, because the 7 shows at those times the math fails to predict.
And, these are times the 7 shows WHEN you have your maximum bet up. Or, WHEN it doesn't show after you've taken bets down, decided not to bet, etc.
These, of course, are my opinions & I could be challenged on what I've said. Craps is a bit like keno: You pick certain numbers & if those numbers hit before the 7, you win. If the 7 shows before they do, you lose. Simple as that.
But, it all comes down to that question: WHEN will the 7 show? Not IF, but WHEN. There's no way to know or predict this, based on past performance, like many have said. That's why craps is a gambling game. You can do your best to devise a strategy that you are satisfied with, but that strategy has to one of maximizing wins & limiting losses, as well as good money management. But, there are times even one's best strategy fails, because the 7 shows at those times the math fails to predict.
And, these are times the 7 shows WHEN you have your maximum bet up. Or, WHEN it doesn't show after you've taken bets down, decided not to bet, etc.
These, of course, are my opinions & I could be challenged on what I've said. Craps is a bit like keno: You pick certain numbers & if those numbers hit before the 7, you win. If the 7 shows before they do, you lose. Simple as that.
August 9th, 2013 at 11:02:49 AM
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Here's another thing though, don't the dice seem to show trends from session to session? The very first time I played a month ago I kept losing the entire day and went from "I'm only going to try $50" to "Wow I just lost an additional $150 that I swore I wouldn't pull from my bank account!!".
The next day someone loaned me another $150 and I made out $300 up by the time I left. Bad day (choppy/frozen bunch of PSO's) followed by a good day (two hot rollers and very high avg rolls).
If I had adjusted my betting strategy for each day, couldn't I have made out with a lot more? But that's the thing, from past experience how many people see a craps table switch on a dime from cold to hot or vice versa? Out of the limited times I've played craps its always one or the other. Maybe there is anyone out there who keeps track of these trends and can give an accurate assessment?
What I really want to know is if changing betting strategies based on the current state of the craps table is viable.
The next day someone loaned me another $150 and I made out $300 up by the time I left. Bad day (choppy/frozen bunch of PSO's) followed by a good day (two hot rollers and very high avg rolls).
If I had adjusted my betting strategy for each day, couldn't I have made out with a lot more? But that's the thing, from past experience how many people see a craps table switch on a dime from cold to hot or vice versa? Out of the limited times I've played craps its always one or the other. Maybe there is anyone out there who keeps track of these trends and can give an accurate assessment?
What I really want to know is if changing betting strategies based on the current state of the craps table is viable.
August 9th, 2013 at 11:37:01 AM
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I'm not answering your question, directly, because I feel there are other things you should know. Maybe you know all this, but here goes.
First, friendlydice, stop the habit right now of pulling more money from a bank account over & above your buy-in. When you lose your buy-in, or reach your loss limit, walk away to play another day. You need some money management skills, as others on here will testify.
Second, stop getting loans from friends to gamble. If you don't have enough to gain what you want in a session with what you have & lose it all, be mature enough to walk away. Don't go into any kind of debt for gambling.
You are getting on a slippery slope, my friend.
Third, I believe the bigger the buy-in, the smaller the bets, the longer you will last at a table, which, as you've discovered, can turn hot or cold. However, I've been at tables where no matter what I did, I got wiped out in half an hour. I do not know if you should be able to sense a table's trend within half an hour. Of course, I may have been betting too much for my buy-in. Se la Vie. Live & learn.
Speaking of how much to bet any one time w/ a given buy-in, others have quoted 10%. I push it by a maximum bet 15% of my buy-in. And, make your buy-in the loss limit for that session, if not less than the buy-in. Either way, you're going to have to learn when to walk away, win or lose. As Kenny Rodgers sang in The Gambler, "know when to walk away, know when to run."
As a beginner, a good book for you to read is Richard Orlyn's "No Nonsense Craps." It helped me in starting out. It's a thin book, cuts to the chase & available at Amazon.com. Good luck.
First, friendlydice, stop the habit right now of pulling more money from a bank account over & above your buy-in. When you lose your buy-in, or reach your loss limit, walk away to play another day. You need some money management skills, as others on here will testify.
Second, stop getting loans from friends to gamble. If you don't have enough to gain what you want in a session with what you have & lose it all, be mature enough to walk away. Don't go into any kind of debt for gambling.
You are getting on a slippery slope, my friend.
Third, I believe the bigger the buy-in, the smaller the bets, the longer you will last at a table, which, as you've discovered, can turn hot or cold. However, I've been at tables where no matter what I did, I got wiped out in half an hour. I do not know if you should be able to sense a table's trend within half an hour. Of course, I may have been betting too much for my buy-in. Se la Vie. Live & learn.
Speaking of how much to bet any one time w/ a given buy-in, others have quoted 10%. I push it by a maximum bet 15% of my buy-in. And, make your buy-in the loss limit for that session, if not less than the buy-in. Either way, you're going to have to learn when to walk away, win or lose. As Kenny Rodgers sang in The Gambler, "know when to walk away, know when to run."
As a beginner, a good book for you to read is Richard Orlyn's "No Nonsense Craps." It helped me in starting out. It's a thin book, cuts to the chase & available at Amazon.com. Good luck.
August 9th, 2013 at 11:43:31 AM
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Sure, if you knew what was going to be rolled beforehand.Quote: friendlydiceIf I had adjusted my betting strategy for each day, couldn't I have made out with a lot more?
It's not necessary to "keep track of the trends". Trust all of us here when we tell you that each roll is independent. This point ends up being a very expensive lesson for a lot of new players out there who think otherwise. Heck, even one of my good buddies, who I've known for years, came up with a "brilliant" scheme one day that was based on trends. It was a guaranteed money-maker, according to him. Well, after 3 consecutive losses of $500+, my idiot friend finally conceded the point. lol!Quote: friendlydiceBut that's the thing, from past experience how many people see a craps table switch on a dime from cold to hot or vice versa? Out of the limited times I've played craps its always one or the other. Maybe there is anyone out there who keeps track of these trends and can give an accurate assessment?
Like we've all been saying, unless you know what that next roll is going to be, then no.Quote: friendlydiceWhat I really want to know is if changing betting strategies based on the current state of the craps table is viable.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
August 9th, 2013 at 12:02:53 PM
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Try looking at it in terms of other games--
With a perfectly fair coin, would you be willing to bet that, after HHHHHHH, that the next one will also be heads?
At roulette, would you be willing to bet that, after BRBRBRB, that the next one will be red?
At baccarat, DPTDPTDP, that the next one will be tie?
They look like a sure thing, but I'm also willing to bet that the people who record everything on baccarat think they're ahead of the casino too.
Anybody that's been around long enough has seen things that have ridiculously low odds of occurring. (My favorite was a roulette screen at Bill's that displayed a history of 13 spins-- that only had 5 different numbers on it. Turns out it was a mechanical error, but it didn't stop people from putting blacks and greens on the 32 that "hit" six times.)
With a perfectly fair coin, would you be willing to bet that, after HHHHHHH, that the next one will also be heads?
At roulette, would you be willing to bet that, after BRBRBRB, that the next one will be red?
At baccarat, DPTDPTDP, that the next one will be tie?
They look like a sure thing, but I'm also willing to bet that the people who record everything on baccarat think they're ahead of the casino too.
Anybody that's been around long enough has seen things that have ridiculously low odds of occurring. (My favorite was a roulette screen at Bill's that displayed a history of 13 spins-- that only had 5 different numbers on it. Turns out it was a mechanical error, but it didn't stop people from putting blacks and greens on the 32 that "hit" six times.)
August 9th, 2013 at 12:03:07 PM
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Thanks for both your replies, this is precisely why I ask these things in the forums. Sometimes stuff just doesn't stick for me, and this really helps with that.
August 14th, 2013 at 9:55:48 PM
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So I tried putting nearly all my money ($180) across the board at the Hyatt in Tahoe last weekend... turned away one roll later with a lovely pair of dice showing seven. Things started to go all slow motion like.
Funny thing is, I put my remaining amount of money ($50) across right after and went on to win $220 off the same shooter who I lost my money to begin with. I left in a hurry after that.
The next day was good. I went up $140, however, I did not bet across much more than $60. Instead I pressed the 6 & 8 once, got another hit, then dropped all my bets rinse and repeat. I was the only one to make money off that table, albeit there were only 2-3 other elderly guys playing at a given time.
However there was something I did not understand about betting across. I had a few numbers worked out before I said to bet 128 or 192 across and such, but they always threw a different number back at me and explained they could only do certain amounts of money (sometimes not even putting my money in every box number). Are there common amounts of money to bet across? I didn't understand anything of what they were saying :(
Funny thing is, I put my remaining amount of money ($50) across right after and went on to win $220 off the same shooter who I lost my money to begin with. I left in a hurry after that.
The next day was good. I went up $140, however, I did not bet across much more than $60. Instead I pressed the 6 & 8 once, got another hit, then dropped all my bets rinse and repeat. I was the only one to make money off that table, albeit there were only 2-3 other elderly guys playing at a given time.
However there was something I did not understand about betting across. I had a few numbers worked out before I said to bet 128 or 192 across and such, but they always threw a different number back at me and explained they could only do certain amounts of money (sometimes not even putting my money in every box number). Are there common amounts of money to bet across? I didn't understand anything of what they were saying :(
August 14th, 2013 at 10:16:58 PM
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Quote: friendlydiceSo I tried putting nearly all my money ($180) across the board at the Hyatt in Tahoe last weekend... turned away one roll later with a lovely pair of dice showing seven. Things started to go all slow motion like.
Funny thing is, I put my remaining amount of money ($50) across right after and went on to win $220 off the same shooter who I lost my money to begin with. I left in a hurry after that.
That's kind of interesting. If the same shooter went again, that means it was come out? Most places I've been to check if you want to bet on during come out, even if you put an across bet during that period.
Quote: friendlydiceHowever there was something I did not understand about betting across. I had a few numbers worked out before I said to bet 128 or 192 across and such, but they always threw a different number back at me and explained they could only do certain amounts of money (sometimes not even putting my money in every box number). Are there common amounts of money to bet across? I didn't understand anything of what they were saying :(
Assuming a 5$ table, it should be 32$ at minimum (5/5/6/6/5/5). As I recall, once you're at ~40+ on 4/10 (don't play at this size, so I can't speak for exactly where the cutoff is) it's better to buy the bet, whereupon the numbers get muddled even further.
At some places, they won't place/buy point by default, unless you specifically request it (regardless of whether you took odds or not).
August 14th, 2013 at 10:34:42 PM
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Quote: friendlydiceHowever there was something I did not understand about betting across. I had a few numbers worked out before I said to bet 128 or 192 across and such, but they always threw a different number back at me and explained they could only do certain amounts of money (sometimes not even putting my money in every box number). Are there common amounts of money to bet across? I didn't understand anything of what they were saying :(
You should have asked. Assuming that a table isn't busy, most dealers are happy to answer questions.
Anyway, you'll have to give us a specific example because I have no idea what you're describing above.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
August 14th, 2013 at 11:28:56 PM
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It could be that one of the numbers was the Point. FREX if the point is 6 then 192 across (30,30,36,36,30,30) is really 156 across because they assume you are better (which you are) to take odds on your Pass Line bet and not Place the 6.
August 15th, 2013 at 9:05:18 AM
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Unless you're at a place with unusually high odds though, I think it's always better to buy/place the point if you want it if you show up late to the roll, rather than taking the same amount of money on pass+odds.
August 15th, 2013 at 9:19:14 AM
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Quote: VenthusUnless you're at a place with unusually high odds though, I think it's always better to buy/place the point if you want it if you show up late to the roll, rather than taking the same amount of money on pass+odds.
For sure, you never want to bet the Pass Line after a point has been established.
August 15th, 2013 at 10:10:03 AM
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Quote: cowboyIt could be that one of the numbers was the Point. FREX if the point is 6 then 192 across (30,30,36,36,30,30) is really 156 across because they assume you are better (which you are) to take odds on your Pass Line bet and not Place the 6.
Ahhh I think this is what happened.
It was a $10 minimum table and I didn't want to play the pass line for that reason. I swear I never have any luck with it. I was about to turn away from the table because the previous night it was $5 minimum which seemed really odd to me. However, sometimes I was the only one at the table so I HAD to put $10 minimum on PL, which is probably when they changed the total sum for my bet across.
Anyway I always let someone else do the come out roll and bet right after the point is established. Is it better to put down a large sum of money on the come out roll and have them not working or wait until after a point is established to make my bet, for the sake of ease.
Also, I did see them put the 4 & 10 on buy on occasion, can someone confirm if I should do this every time if I bet across? I'll do a little research behind it but I don't know the reason for buying them when I could just put money on it like normal.
August 15th, 2013 at 10:27:37 AM
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If that's in fact what happened, then the dealer should have done a better job explaining to you what was going on.
Technically it doesn't matter, although it's probably better to wait until a point is established before placing your bets (unless you want them working on the come-out, of course). Some players get irritated when they're delayed from throwing the dice on the come-out. Ultimately, it's all up to you though.Quote: friendlydiceIs it better to put down a large sum of money on the come out roll and have them not working or wait until after a point is established to make my bet, for the sake of ease.
If you're betting $20 or more on the 4 or 10, then absolutely.Quote: friendlydiceAlso, I did see them put the 4 & 10 on buy on occasion, can someone confirm if I should do this every time if I bet across?
Fighting BS one post at a time!
August 15th, 2013 at 10:39:59 AM
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Awesome, thanks for yours and everyone's responses. I feel more confident every time I gamble, which might not be a good thing now that I think about it!
Edit: And yea, I came in both times with a plan so I think it appeared that I knew what I was doing. I just went with the status quo and pretended I did. I try to ask things but they don't break it down for me or they say it too fast so I just end up nodding my head or some nonsense. One day I'll get there :P
Edit: And yea, I came in both times with a plan so I think it appeared that I knew what I was doing. I just went with the status quo and pretended I did. I try to ask things but they don't break it down for me or they say it too fast so I just end up nodding my head or some nonsense. One day I'll get there :P
August 15th, 2013 at 11:33:58 AM
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Quote: friendlydiceAlso, I did see them put the 4 & 10 on buy on occasion, can someone confirm if I should do this every time if I bet across? I'll do a little research behind it but I don't know the reason for buying them when I could just put money on it like normal.
Buying it makes them give better odds (2:1), but there's a 5% commission. Check on the rules for this-- most places are pay up front, some pay on win, and I've heard of a place where 'the first one's free'. If it's pay-on-win, then you'll want to buy the 5/9s. 6/8, always place. You'll have to specifically request to buy at some places as well-- the house makes more if you place a 4/10 instead of buying, so...
