AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 12718
August 2nd, 2013 at 10:46:38 PM permalink
that means the game returns only 99%+ of your money back in the long run. for every \$1 you bet you will get back 99 cents (with perfect play)
its really 99.54% return 54% of the time that you bet you end up with nothing no pay back at all. I think you are reading it as if 99 percent of the time you will win a hand or session.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
• Posts: 1157
August 2nd, 2013 at 11:54:25 PM permalink
Well I bet according to the amount of money I have set aside to play craps with,
by that i mean i have an account that i play craps from, my winnings go back in and i play from
there.

I dont have a risk of ruin because i dont over bet my bank roll, and i understand my weakness's
and my strengths as a player.

dicesetter
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 9425
August 3rd, 2013 at 6:31:23 AM permalink
It means that, over the long run, for every dollar you bet you will lose less than \$0.01.

It has nothing to do with your actual probability of winning in a given session, whatever your win goal, the higher it gets, the lower your probability of winning an individual session will be.
Vultures can't be choosers.
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
• Posts: 1157
August 3rd, 2013 at 8:15:28 AM permalink
Well the long run is made up of alot of short runs.

MOst people including myself understand the math of the game, and it is math
in the looooooooooooooooooooooooooong run that indicates stuff.

However unless you have an endless amount of money, the short run can make
sure you never reach the long run.

The idea that if you bet a pass line bet with odds you will only lose \$1.41 out
of every \$100 you bet or if you place only the 6 & 8 you will lose only \$1.52
for every \$100 you bet sounds really good, hell this is not bad at all.

BUT......... what if you only have \$200 and you bet \$22 starting and the first 13 players
dont make a hand of 3 rolls and no one makes a pass line winner, what was the
per centage of your loss, was it a combined 1.46% ... no it was 100%

While the math of the game is important, the risk of ruin has to do with how much
you have to play with and how much of that you bet at one time, if you bet to
much relative to what you have, the math of the game will not save you.

In one of the craps books,i am not sure it may be Franks or Sharpshooters. there is a
line which says the only difference between a person that plays craps, and one that plays
craps alot is that the person that plays alot....... can loss...it all!!!!!

That is a very true statement.

Dicesitter
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
• Posts: 19879
August 3rd, 2013 at 1:04:58 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

It has nothing to do with your actual probability of winning in a given session, whatever your win goal, the higher it gets, the lower your probability of winning an individual session will be.

Definition of 'Risk Of Ruin'

The probability of an individual losing.. gambling money.. to the point at which continuing on is no longer considered an option to recover losses. Risk of ruin is calculated by taking into account the probability of winning.. the probability of incurring losses, and the portion of an individual's capital base that is in play or at risk. Also known as the "probability of ruin".

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk-of-ruin.asp
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
• Posts: 19879
August 3rd, 2013 at 1:16:17 PM permalink
Calculators like this are misleading. It says if you
have 50 units to risk and want to make a 1 unit
profit and have win rate of 50.5%, you have about
a 1% ROR. What it doesn't explain is the variance
involved. You could easily play for days in that
scenario before you were ahead by one unit.

If you have 10 units to risk to make 1 unit and a 65%
is very low, you could be one unit ahead in the first
15min most of the time. So all things considered, the
calculator doesn't mean much.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1437
August 6th, 2013 at 6:15:54 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

The Ruin probabilities are accurate if you use them properly.
even money payouts and equal wagers.

Just not telling or showing the whole or complete picture that includes the time element.
Alan Shank brought this up in many of his posts too.
Just like all the house edge and ev only pushers that also leave out the variance.
Exactly

Quote: EvenBob

It says if you
have 50 units to risk and want to make a 1 unit
profit and have win rate of 50.5%, you have about
a 1% ROR.

My Excel

Quote: EvenBob

What it doesn't explain is the variance
involved. You could easily play for days in that
scenario before you were ahead by one unit.

The formula can be found here for the average number of trials
http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/calculating-a-hold-percentage-1230

of course this is a 'wait time' distribution so 'average' can mean almost anything is not intuitive.
average is about 40.9 trials by the formula and about 88% chance it happens by the 40th trial
table showing part of the distribution (table created by a transition matrix Markov Chain)

always a chance one never hits the target or hits ruin.
hit targetruintrialin progress
0.505010.495
0.505020.495
0.631237030.368763
0.69435050.30565
0.7613970100.238603
0.8319460200.168054
0.8639580300.136042
0.8832110400.116789
0.8964080500.103592
0.9293061.53E-071000.070693847
0.9526150.0001007752000.047284225
0.9731770.003166695000.02365631
0.983090.008107710000.0088023

2.4% probability of still going at 500 trials
also can be done easily in Excel
`N	N or less prob1	0.5052	0.5053	0.6312373754	0.6312373755	0.6943497516	0.6943497517	0.7337910418	0.7337910419	0.76139718310	0.76139718311	0.78209971912	0.78209971913	0.79836437114	0.79836437115	0.81157807916	0.81157807917	0.82258840218	0.82258840219	0.8319462420	0.8319462421	0.84002720122	0.84002720123	0.84709733524	0.84709733525	0.85335105826	0.85335105827	0.85893418228	0.85893418229	0.86395849130	0.86395849131	0.86851131532	0.86851131533	0.87266200534	0.87266200535	0.87646642336	0.87646642337	0.87997014238	0.87997014239	0.88321075840	0.88321075841	0.886219642	0.886219643	0.88902301444	0.88902301445	0.89164333546	0.89164333547	0.89409963948	0.89409963949	0.89640833550	0.896408335`

Quote: EvenBob

If you have 10 units to risk to make 1 unit and a 65%

no. I think you misread the value.

Quote: EvenBob

But the variance
is very low, you could be one unit ahead in the first
15min most of the time. So all things considered, the
calculator doesn't mean much.

yep. average is about 3.3 trials by the formula
table showing part of the distribution
sure nice to see the whole picture that one might encounter.
110exact trialin progress1 intrial
0.6500.650.352.861
0.65000.352.862
0.79787500.1478750.2021254.953
0.797875000.2021254.954
0.86515800.0672830.1348427.425
0.865158000.1348427.426
0.90342500.0382670.09657510.357
0.903425000.09657510.358
0.92780200.0243770.07219813.859
0.9278022.75855E-0500.07217041513.8610
0.9444382.75855E-050.0166360.05553441518.0111
0.9444388.40667E-0500.05547793318.0312
0.9563348.40667E-050.0118960.04358193322.9513
0.9563340.00015973600.04350626422.9914
0.9651290.0001597360.0087950.03471126428.8115
0.9651290.00024418600.03462681428.8816
0.9717980.0002441860.0066690.02795781435.7717
0.9717980.00032960600.02787239435.8818
0.9769570.0003296060.0051590.02271339444.0319
0.9769570.00041105500.02263194544.1920

2.3% probability of still going at 20 trials
also done in Excel
(cumulative distribution for # of games until target or ruin)
`N	N or less prob1	0.652	0.653	0.7978754	0.7978755	0.8651581256	0.8651581257	0.9034254028	0.9034254029	0.92780165810	0.92782924311	0.94446603812	0.94452251913	0.95641782714	0.95649349615	0.9652885916	0.9653730417	0.97204265218	0.97212807319	0.97728701820	0.97736846621	0.98142268722	0.98149745923	0.98472472624	0.98479164425	0.98738761726	0.98744645927	0.98955239628	0.98960349329	0.99132360730	0.991367578`

but for many, they are very very happy with one value from any calculator
that tells them everything THEY wants to know.

you and I are in the majority here.
thanks, now my new computer is all set up the way I like it
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
katastrof78
Joined: Jan 25, 2014