drjohnny
drjohnny
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July 28th, 2013 at 8:49:59 PM permalink
Just finished an insanely long practice session to compare 2 different systems at a $5 table.

The 1st system consisted of following the last winner (excluding come out rolls) with 10x odds.
The 2nd system consisted simply of betting the Dark Side every time with 10x odds.

I'm sure both systems would be a wash over millions of rolls in WinCraps, but here are some real dice results of ~1515 rolls...

Bankroll low with the dynamic system: -$425
Bankroll high with the dynamic system: +$1335

Bankroll low with the 100% Dark Side system: -$855
Bankroll high with the 100% Dark Side system: +$400

The beauty of the dynamic system is that an extremely hot or cold table won't crush you.

My bankroll suffered a bit when the table became extremely choppy with many shooters hitting exactly one point and then sevening out, but I never came close to busting out with a $1500 bankroll. If I encounter such a table in the future, I should probably change my strategy and bet with the current trend.

COMPLETE RESULTS OF ~1515 ROLLS
dicesitter
dicesitter
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July 28th, 2013 at 10:51:22 PM permalink
Drj


The problem with a flexible system as you call it is that you have to determine ahead of time what the next
shooter will do.... what the last shooter did hae no bearing on the next one.

You can use the system one day and have one result then the next and have another, but over the long haul you will
lose.

We have a nice young man here that has a lot of money.... he plays table max starting out every roll across the board,
he also plays $100 pass line with double odds and $25 hardways.

now common sense and every craps book ever writter will indicate you cant win doing this... however in the last 3
weeks jack is in front $77,000, nowever everybody is playing across and the pass line with what ever money they
have.... and in 2-3 weeks they will quit... because you cant win that way, if all you have to do was bet a lot of money
the casino's would be broke a long time ago.

Dicesetter.
drjohnny
drjohnny
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July 29th, 2013 at 12:05:07 AM permalink
Yes, I know that previous results have no bearing on future results in craps.

But the main goal of my dynamic system is to survive both extremely cold and hot tables with a very low house edge (either 0.128% or 0.184% depending on the side you pick).

I also know that all systems are losers over the long haul, but I like my chances since the house edge is well under 1% with this system.

How much was Jack betting in order to get ahead $77K in only 3 weeks? Is he a "dice controller" or random shooter? I'm surprised he was only betting double odds. If I had his kind of money, I'd try to find a table with 100x odds.
drjohnny
drjohnny
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August 6th, 2013 at 3:37:39 PM permalink
Just completed another simulation using thousands of dice results from random.org (much faster than rolling real dice).

Switching between pass and don't pass depending on the current state of the table worked much better than I expected.

Only recorded relevant dice results in order to save time.

$5K profit at a $5 table with 10x odds and never went into the hole...

RESULTS
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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August 7th, 2013 at 3:58:56 AM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

Just completed another simulation using thousands of dice results from random.org



Sounds like hard work and error-prone too, frankly.

Get Wincraps.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
drjohnny
drjohnny
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August 7th, 2013 at 9:29:22 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Sounds like hard work and error-prone too, frankly.

Get Wincraps.


How is using the dice roller at random.org hard work and error-prone?

random.org is free and I can easily scan through several dice results at a time.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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August 7th, 2013 at 12:11:28 PM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

How is using the dice roller at random.org hard work and error-prone?



don't you have to take the results and apply them as if you were making bets, then tally the bets?

the dice roller I see there is one roll of the dice at a time. Geez!

maybe you found something else there, but still!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ahiromu
ahiromu
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August 7th, 2013 at 12:35:13 PM permalink
I play something similar with less exposure. I will go "all in" on the light side and play DP single odds when I feel the table cooling. Yes I miss out on some wins, but I also miss out on some.big losses.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
drjohnny
drjohnny
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August 7th, 2013 at 1:19:23 PM permalink
odiousgambit, I roll 14 dice simultaneously on random.org so I can quickly get 7 sets of results each time.

Much faster than rolling real dice 7 separate times... :)
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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August 7th, 2013 at 6:12:12 PM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

odiousgambit, I roll 14 dice simultaneously on random.org so I can quickly get 7 sets of results each time.

Much faster than rolling real dice 7 separate times... :)



OK, but still.

I can see you can't be convinced that Wincraps is the way to go. Yet the best $20 a craps player ever spent [not even as much as $20 anymore I think]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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