Don't Pass Hedging

Greetings, first post here.

I am relatively new to table gaming, but I have enjoyed the few times I've been. I live in Raleigh and have only been to Harrah's Cherokee since they introduced live dealers. Offers to Atlantic City and comped rooms in Vegas are already being thrown at me, but those first-time trips will have to be saved for another day.

To the point, my question is regarding hedge bets to protect yourself from a point of 6 or 8. I generally play the don'ts, I just have enjoyed that more thus far. I know The Wizard always advises against hedging, but certain combinations of lay/don't pass bets can assure the player of a small win whether the point hits or the shooter sevens out. I am thinking using this strategy along with my largest odds bets with a point of 4 and 10.

Any system loses in the long run. I'm not a math person, but I would guess the long-term shortcoming of this strategy is that the point is 6 or 8 so frequently, your relatively small wins won't make up for all the sevens on the come-out. My question is more of how you guys think it might impact my variation or if it will help me stretch my bankroll for a long playing session.

I don't go to the casino thirsting to make money, I go legitimately looking forward to PLAYING the games, being in the environment, etc...so I'd say I'm ok with tempering my odds of "winning big" in favor of staying at the table for longer...am I on the right track?

You are on the right track if you keep in your mind the one primary goal is to have fun rather than adhere to some simplistic system.

If your bankroll is limited, you are better off as a RIGHT WAY BETTOR since your odds bets requires less capital. Now you can tell me that the Dark Side has "better" chances, but thats only if you take things out to four decimal places or something. Just one tip to a cocktail waitress and the difference between the PASS LINE and the DON'TPASS LINE is gone.

But if you like the Don'ts ... fine. EVEN if its a six or eight point,,,,,,,,,,,,,, the shooter is still more likely to Seven Out than make his point. And it is still best for you to "Pays Your Money and Take Your Chance" than to hedge your bets.

Yeah, one game I was getting creamed on the Don'ts .... and the stupid dealer kept telling me to call "No Action" on the Don'tCome if it was a six or eight. I KNEW that was wrong math but I did it anyway and I started making some money for awhile. Anything can happen, even if you knowingly play in an incorrect manner.

Just have fun and stay alert. You will often find that crews make more mistakes for Don't Players than they do for Right Way bettors. More practice perhaps.

Thanks for the quick reply, Fleastiff.

I don't necessarily see adhering to a system as a bad thing, as long as you take it for what it is: your personal arrangement of long-term, losing bets. It's when people are hell-bent on conquering the game of Craps and are in denial about the hole they just found themselves in, that systems become a problem.

I'm aware that the difference between the pass and don't pass is negligible at my level of betting...it's strictly preference. I like the psychology of being favored to win after surviving the initial roll. I believe I read the Wizard state that the Pass is better if you're looking for a short profitable run on the table.

I plan on giving the Pass another try my next visit, however, if only for the camaraderie.

Jimmer,
I enjoy playing the don't as well.
In IL they allow 10x odds and in Tunica they allow 20x odds.
What amount of odds do they allow at Cherokee?
What I have found is when laying 20x odds it is essentially a lay bet since I could just bypass the come out roll and lay the point to win $100 and pay $5.
In Tunica you pay the vig after the bet and if the bet loses you don't have to pay it.So I like to lay the point in Tunica.
In IL you have to pay the vig up front. They are tighter than MS on the rules but I guess that is to be expected.
I like to use the hardway hedge because that only leaves 2 ways to get beat on the 4 and 10 as opposed to 3.
Same with the 6 and 8, only 4 ways to beat you on those points instead of 5. The Wizard is right about hedge bet math but this play works for me,especially if I have more than 300 against a 6 or 8.

KB1

The conundrum of negative expectation is that players seek protection from some stinging losses they remember, but the fact is hedging only helps the house. I have come to realize hedging usually [always?] is a matter of lowering variance; the hedger doesn't realize or has forgotten that variance is his only hope.

The advantage you have with the point being 6 or 8, ye darksider, is the stuff of dreams; depressing, maddening memories of luck turned bad with those numbers notwithstanding.

Quote:

certain combinations of lay/don't pass bets can assure the player of a small win

believe me, your bet combinations do not need to be kept secret. Just what do they involve?

I apologize, everyone. I made a big mistake in my post. I did not mean to say lay bets. Rather, place bets.

For example, if you bet 25 units on the don't, and the point hits 6 or 8, you can place a bet of 24 units on the point number. This would guarantee winnings of either a dollar or three dollars, depending on what hits...if I am calculating that correctly.

The problem with hedging generally is that it reduces variance and you're decreasing the chance to win in the longer term. The problem with hedging with place bets is that, other than the 6 and 8, the house edge is too large so you're giving up a lot of money.

A long time ago (in a Usenet group far, far away) I came up with an alternate method to hedge a line bet using only odds. It involves making a large don't bet, a smaller pass bet, and then taking pass odds in the appropriate amount so you lock in a win regardless of what happens with the point. Here's an example using a Vegas Strip standard $10 3/4/5x table:

$55 don't pass
$10 pass
Point of 4 or 10: Take $30 odds. +$15 if point made, +$15 if 7-out.
Point of 5 or 9: Take $36 odds. +$9 if point made, +$9 if 7-out
Point of 6 or 8: Take $40 odds. +$3 if point made, +$5 if 7-out.

For obvious reasons, always work your odds. Natural winners are what kill you with this hedge, though craps rolls somewhat make up for it. A yo or winner 7 will cost you $45, but 7 will win any prior points so that somewhat reduces the impact. You're primarily rooting for outside place numbers. And you can adjust the bet amounts to suit your tastes.

I, too, only play the Don'ts. The only hedge I do is ($5 table), laying the 4/10 for $40 each with $5 on the 4/10 HW. Beyond that, i don't hedge. I did a post on this board asking about this hedge and was told to NOT hedge at all, just as the Wizard says. B.U.T..... that HW hedge has save my butt many times. While I haven't tracked the wins/losses, I just "feel" it has saved my game in the long run.

In playing the Don'ts, I continue to plug the DC on each roll(really ruins variance). There's nothing finer than to load the bases and see that 7 come out!! If there are 3 pick-offs, I take down all the lay-odds, leave the flat bets, and place each number which has a Don't for $5. Then I switch to the 'right' side with Place bets on the inside. 3 hits and you come out almost even.

Jeffrey

Here is the post I did on that 4/10 hedge bet and got excellent responses :
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11827-hedging-bets/

Quote: jkluv7

...that HW hedge has save my butt many times. While I haven't tracked the wins/losses, I just "feel" it has saved my game in the long run.

It may "feel" that way, but it hasn't. Then again, if such a hedge gives you some peace of mind, then maybe it's worth it.

Quote: jkluv7

I, too, only play the Don'ts. The only hedge I do is ($5 table), laying the 4/10 for $40 each with $5 on the 4/10 HW. Beyond that, i don't hedge. I did a post on this board asking about this hedge and was told to NOT hedge at all, just as the Wizard says. B.U.T..... that HW hedge has save my butt many times. While I haven't tracked the wins/losses, I just "feel" it has saved my game in the long run.

>laying the 4/10 for $40 each just fine.
laying the 4/10 for $35 each is just fine also... That 5.00 Hardway is something you really and truly remember when it saves your skin, but most of the time all its really doing is detracting from your winnings on your lay bets. You are buying a mind pleasing insurance policy at a pretty steep rate. Of course, there are some players who like that peace of mind and who swear by the results but the reason you are laying the 4 and 10 is that they are less likely to hit. So that makes your insurance policy pleasant to pay off but even less likely to hit.

It is indeed a clever thing to have done ... when it works. Sure takes the sting out of that loss, but consider how rare the hard 4 and hard 10 are going to be and the money you are paying on every roll for avoiding that sting.

@FleaStiff - you are absolutely correct ! We as humans tend to only remember the good stuffs. I remember all those HW hits that saved each bet, but simply discounted and forget the hundreds of dollars down the tube with that hedge. I can happily report I have got over that hedge-addiction and it has proven that I can stay at the tables longer with more money in my chip rack !

Quote: jkluv7

I, too, only play the Don'ts.
The only hedge I do is ($5 table), laying the 4/10 for $40 each with $5 on the 4/10 HW.
Beyond that, i don't hedge.
I did a post on this board asking about this hedge and was told to NOT hedge at all, just as the Wizard says. B.U.T.....
that HW hedge has save my butt many times.
While I haven't tracked the wins/losses, I just "feel" it has saved my game in the long run.

Most still never learn their
lesson(s) even if they say they have about constant hedging... or Playing scared.

When one combines many small sessions into one large session,
we only play one life long session and our results always approach the bell curve with more bets made,
we can see the effects of our actions.
But no craps player ever will track their own play so it can be looked at. They all just use their own memory only
Excellent. All Craps players are only concerned with the short term of play.
"We never play a session of 35,000 dice rolls at one time"
"We always play in the short run, so the long run never comes in to play"
" I do not want to bust out too quickly. Let me hedge my bets now.
I love to play scared."

Take the actual casino dice rolls from Zumma Craps tester (over 35k rolls)
and here are some results
Don't Pass only lost -$575
DP with above Lays and HW only lost -$9543 (-3.22%) Feels much better hedging my DP
ev: -3.04% -$9013

for the other side
-$910 pass line lost
who wants to add a hedge to just 'feel' better

IF one plans on making less then 50 to 100 lifetime bets or so, have at it and do what ever you 'feel' like doing.
The math will still be there but so will some wild variance.

Most Craps players will play and wager many thousands of wagers in their lifetime.
I 'FEEL' way better knowing NOT to hedge (play scared) any of my bets.
I still bet all the bets at Craps, even use all sorts of progressions, because they are more fun to play for me.
Right? It IS my $$$.

Of course, ALL Craps players want to buy in for $200
make $10 line bets and max odds, place the 6&8 for $12 each,
bet $5 on all the hardways and INSIST to the Craps Gods that they MUST double their bankroll at least 90% of the time
Excellent

If hedging IS more fun then have more fun
the casinos will love you for it
Of course one will have to place more $$$ into their bankroll more often.
That sounds like more FUN to me
right ME!

Thanks for this post. It got some adrenaline flowing. So I guess I must thank the original post for sharing as well.

Would I be so wrong as to to place $6 on 8 and 6 when the point is 4 or 10 hoping 6 or 8 comes out before a 7 and if one does, either keeping the bets in play or removing them. If 7 hits one the 2nd roll I'd still win 5bucks. And if a few 6's and 8's show before a 7 I can make a little extra and when the point is made, I get the 12 bucks back and it adds to my profit.

Spending a an hour sweating out the come out roll sounds fun.

Thanks again. Enjoy the reading.

Quote: wroberson

Would I be so wrong as to to place $6 on 8 and 6 when the point is 4 or 10 hoping 6 or 8 comes out before a 7 and if one does, either keeping the bets in play or removing them.

There is nothing wrong with that method.

Quote: Jimmer

I apologize, everyone. I made a big mistake in my post.
I did not mean to say lay bets. Rather, place bets.

For example, if you bet 25 units on the don't, and the point hits 6 or 8,
you can place a bet of 24 units on the point number.
This would guarantee winnings of either a dollar or three dollars, depending on what hits...if I am calculating that correctly.

So say $25 on DP and every point of a 6 or 8 gets the hedge Place bet of $24.
This is going to increase your he and ev but not horrifically IMO.
Some can and will disagree.

Some just remove the DP in those cases and give up ev too. there are a few posts at WoV about that too.

a few views of my Excel sheets shows the he goes up a bit (this was over the perfect 1980)
and so did the ev per bet
$25 DP ev per bet: -0.340909091
$25 DP and $24 Place point: -0.441919192
cost difference of about 10 cents per bet. ($200 per 1980 such bets)

For more fun while playing scared, not a bad way to go
Just pick your spots to win more and beat that small he increase



Have fun and Good Luck

Quote: wroberson

Would I be so wrong as to to place $6 on 8 and 6 when the point is 4 or 10 hoping 6 or 8 comes out before a 7 and if one does, either keeping the bets in play or removing them.

I sure hope it ain't wrong... I tend to do it too but I take it all down after one hit.

>Spending a an hour sweating out the come out roll sounds fun.
Sure does, but who has the patience to just stand there and sweat without getting in on more action.

Don't pass hedging is how I play - well close to it. I lay the 10 or 4 and then play pass line and place bets.

However, I don't think it is a true "hedge". In my mind, a hedge implies opposite bets to give some insurance.

Playing a 10 Lay, and the playing a pass line bet with odds - those are two separate bets and conceivably both can resolve/win.

One way I used to play was do a don't pass/come. I would only leave up one don't come bet up until a 10 or 4 hit. Then use odds to cover the amount of money I would play on the place bets. So ideally, I would have a don't come 10 ($10) with $60 don't come odds. Then have $5 place bets on 4,5,9 and $6 on 6,8 (total $27). Then I keep playing don't come bets, but take no action unless a 10 rolls (and I loose my previous DC bet). My thought was to keep the amount on the DC bet to cover the place bets in case of a 7. For example, with the first win on a place bet hit, I would only need to cover $20. With each place bet hit, the DC odds would be reduced - so a 7 breaks even. My thought was that if a 7 breaks even, this takes this out of the equation. Without a 7 being a problem, the 2,3 and comes up more than the 11 - so theoretically that would give you some profit.

The problem lies in those pesky 10's in a row before a 7 hits. With each roll, you are twice as likely a 7 will hit, but they do happen. Using this idea, I would marty the DC 10.

Quote: slackyhacky

Don't pass hedging is how I play - well close to it. I lay the 10 or 4 and then play pass line and place bets.

How is this a "Don't Pass hedge" when a Don't Pass bet isn't even made?

Quote: slackyhacky

Don't pass hedging is how I play - well close to it. I lay the 10 or 4 and then play pass line and place bets.

However, I don't think it is a true "hedge". In my mind, a hedge implies opposite bets to give some insurance.

Playing a 10 Lay, and the playing a pass line bet with odds - those are two separate bets and conceivably both can resolve/win.

One way I used to play was do a don't pass/come. I would only leave up one don't come bet up until a 10 or 4 hit. Then use odds to cover the amount of money I would play on the place bets. So ideally, I would have a don't come 10 ($10) with $60 don't come odds. Then have $5 place bets on 4,5,9 and $6 on 6,8 (total $27). Then I keep playing don't come bets, but take no action unless a 10 rolls (and I loose my previous DC bet). My thought was to keep the amount on the DC bet to cover the place bets in case of a 7. For example, with the first win on a place bet hit, I would only need to cover $20. With each place bet hit, the DC odds would be reduced - so a 7 breaks even. My thought was that if a 7 breaks even, this takes this out of the equation. Without a 7 being a problem, the 2,3 and comes up more than the 11 - so theoretically that would give you some profit.

The problem lies in those pesky 10's in a row before a 7 hits. With each roll, you are twice as likely a 7 will hit, but they do happen. Using this idea, I would marty the DC 10.

3 green makes a nice spread: $12 each 6 and 8, $50 no 4 (or no 10) + $1 vig = $75 initial outlay. A 7 right away is a wash. Do a unit press on both the 6 and 8 until 3 hits:
a) $12 wins $14; keep $2, press both to $18
b) $18 wins $21; keep $9, press both to $24
c) $24 wins $28; keep $16, press both to $30 and take down the lay.
Any 7 before then and you've locked up whatever you took back. If you get past the 3rd hit you have $60 in action, $27 in winnings, and no hedge. Obviously, the downside is knocking out the lay bet.

As far as what to do next, I'd probably transition to line+odds, replacing the place bets as needed with full odds. If you're skittish, regress the 6 and 8 back to $12 each, locking up a larger win at the expense of smaller action.

No, this isn't a "don't pass" hedge either.

John Patrick, a somewhat controversial gambling author, lays out a lot of different hedge plays in his two books on craps.