If you guys wanted to hit OR avoid 7 purposely. How much can you guys vary from the random rollers of 16.6% in terms of long term hit or avoid 7 percentages from the random 16.6%, and Im asking about LONG TERM AVERAGES , not only 1 single week or month.
thank you guys for replying!!!
Quote: IHMJackIm very curious, how good are you guys at shooting. I think random rollers hit 7 about once every 6 rolls in the long run
If you guys wanted to hit OR avoid 7 purposely. How much can you guys vary from the random rollers of 16.6% in terms of long term hit or avoid 7 percentages from the random 16.6%, and Im asking about LONG TERM AVERAGES , not only 1 single week or month.
thank you guys for replying!!!
You can consult with my blog to see the details, but over the 3000 rolls I recorded, here's a snapshot of stats for sevens, hardways, and hi-lo's.
Observed: 531.0 sevens - 2868.0 non sevens RSR 6.4011
Expected: 566.5 sevens - 2832.5 non sevens RSR 6.0000
X**2: 2.67 p: 0.10228
Seven outs 373 (70.24%) - Seven winners 158 (29.76%)
Pairs 586 17.24% - 16.67% = 0.57% (+19.50 rolls)
Hards 414 12.18% - 11.11% = 1.07% (+36.33 rolls)
HiLos 172 5.06% - 5.56% = -0.50% (-16.83 rolls)
This person specifically asked me to respond to this post with a private message sent to me on GoodShooter. I obliged.
However, this is not representing a return to the forum for me guys.
Peace!
Oh, you don't mean firearms.... you mean dice...
Well, I never really keep track. I sometimes roll a seven, sometimes I establish a point and sometimes I even make the point. Statistics? Heck, once I go to the bar area and drink, I forget about the games... usually as soon as my chin bumps the foot rail.
This is why I said that all of these "tests" about throwing dice to count the number of 7s is meaningless. Only in a real money game situation where 7s are good on come outs and bad after the point is established is the real measure of "dice influencing." Also, someone could have a wonder Seven To Rolls Ratio but if they are betting 6s and 8s and rolling nothing but horn numbers before they finally throw the devil, then their "dice influencing" is meaningless.
So when there is a discussion about 7 to rolls ratios, and "expert shooters" present their results of how they rolled the dice, this old saying comes to mind:
"There are lies, damned lies and statistics."
Quote: IHMJackIm very curious, how good are you guys at shooting. I think random rollers hit 7 about once every 6 rolls in the long run
If you guys wanted to hit OR avoid 7 purposely.
I'd say not so bad, but really only good enough to realize just how much work is yet ahead. I can consistently hit 7 at 300, land 3 in there at 500 with 3-12x56, even all 5 if the conditions are favorable. But trying to go longer stability becomes an issue, it's that X-axis spin being lost that leads to less predictable landings even with consistent deflection.
I know I'll get better with some equipment I'm going to get that would analyze the conditions and allow for their precise consideration in aiming. And more so practice, like they say it makes perfect, but it can get expensive - and also painful in the shoulder - especially with 275s that work the best. I'm more interested in perfected the hit rate where I'm good at, so it's back to hand-setting 200s.
And welcome back.
Quote: AhighThis person specifically asked me to respond to this post with a private message sent to me on GoodShooter. I obliged.
However, this is not representing a return to the forum for me guys.
C'mon, Ahigh, can't you tell that the WoV community misses you?? There's an entire thread devoted to you, and it has over 200 posts! No other WoV member has garnered that type of interest before. You're a celebrity here. :)
Quote: Beethoven9thC'mon, Ahigh, can't you tell that the WoV community misses you?? There's an entire thread devoted to you, and it has over 200 posts! No other WoV member has garnered that type of interest before. You're a celebrity here. :)
Singer and Logan did. MrJJJ did as well. He's not the first, he'll not be the last.
We've covered VP, Roulette and Craps. I predict it's gonna be Big 6 next...
Quote: AhighThis person specifically asked me to respond to this post with a private message sent to me on GoodShooter. I obliged.
A reasonable person wouldn't be faulted for wondering why, if this person knew where to find you, this person didn't just ask you over there.
Quote: Ahigh
However, this is not representing a return to the forum for me guys.
Um... you just did.
That statement is correct, the number of 7's you throw can mean nothing, or it can
mean something depending on when you throw them.
The srr in practice is nothing more than a way of showing if you have indeed got to the
point that you have changed the math of the game over time. If you data shows you started
with a 6 SRR and over time and practice you have a 7.3 SRR this shows some influence, But
does that mean you have a chance to win at the casino..
Not always, most people have worse results at the casino than on their practice table, maybe so
much worse that your throw ends up being random.
You may also have a long roll and 5 7 outs.... or you may have a series of rolls where you
'hit a 6 and an 8 and then a 4/3 or 3/4, or a 9/9/9/9 and a 4/3, last night i had 4 tens in a
row, on all similar looking rolls.
Alan is correct in that dice influence does not mean that, that results in hitting the number your
are on, particularly if you are a 6 & 8 better.
After my 2 or third class i cant remember, it was Sunday night and i was downtown in vegas and i
was really ready to play..... now i am not sure i am exactly right on the numbers, but very close. i had
23 3/4/4/3 out of 42 rolls. I have no idea how many 7 outs i had, the good news is i was not betting
much.After spending all week end in the class, this was not a good sign. BUt if it had been 6 or 8
i would have been very happy.
Dice influence is sorta like the old statement....... be careful what you wish for, you may get it...
7's.... no question all depends on when you throw them.
Dicesetter
Quote: thecesspitSinger and Logan did. MrJJJ did as well. He's not the first, he'll not be the last.
We've covered VP, Roulette and Craps. I predict it's gonna be Big 6 next...
The Wizard used to say you could win at Big 6 by wheel tracking, that's not on his site anymore... Or at least I couldn't find it last I checked.
Quote: Beethoven9thC'mon, Ahigh, can't you tell that the WoV community misses you?? There's an entire thread devoted to you, and it has over 200 posts! No other WoV member has garnered that type of interest before. You're a celebrity here. :)
Not even close. Check out HotBlondeChallenge
Quote: MonkeyMonkeyA reasonable person wouldn't be faulted for wondering why, if this person knew where to find you, this person didn't just ask you over there.
Um... you just did.
I was thinking the same exact same. Why not reply to his message. Why go to another site to respond to him?
Quote: SOOPOONot even close. Check out HotBlondeChallenge
HotBlonde was participating in that thread though. Ahigh wasn't even posting at all on WoV when his thread reached 200+.
Why do the DI haters play craps if they don't believe it's possible - essentially saying an edge is not possible? If you can delve so deeply into analogy, entropy and human capability you surely know you're throwing money away if you can't have any influence over the way the dice fall
Why is it not possible? Perhaps it's extremely rare for the elite motor skills of an individual and their dedication to perfecting a dice throw to match up, but I don't see how it's IMPOSSIBLE to "influence" dice. And just say "dice control" anyway. It's degrees of control. (I just decided I'm a 5th degree controller; and I just decided there are only 10 degrees; and I'm making a belt to prove it)
Throwing one to the haters because I know Ahigh reads: why haven't you answered Alan's request and filmed one single perfect slow motion shot? The GTC videos come really close to his demands, and you posting those truly mediocre hard-ways shots is just ammunition for the haters. You have to be able to meet Alan's request or you should take Frank's "best advice", especially with the setup you have.
Quote: DeMangoHo Lee Fuk! Are you kidding me? First post? Previous handle? Is your Johnson bigger than Ahigh's? When will it end???
I'm interested in his opinion on biased dice!
This may still be impressive to many, but the sample size is still to small to mean anything more than a 'good job well done. Thanks for the videos.'Quote: AhighObserved: 531.0 sevens - 2868.0 non sevens RSR 6.4011
Expected: 566.5 sevens - 2832.5 non sevens RSR 6.0000
566.5 sevens = 3399 dice rolls.(I did not count them)
Let us add to: Expected: 566.5 sevens, RSR 6.0000, P(7) = 1/6 or 16.6667%
we know there is variance in 3,399 dice rolls for the # of 7s.
The probability of getting exactly that many in that many rolls is about 1.83% or about 1 in 55 sets of 3399 dice rolls.
Not likely one session will hit exactly that.
Without figuring the standard deviation for N rolls,
one can easily do that themselves, I just convert that (BinomialSD) into a percentage.
I get
sd of P
0.6392%
0.006392315
So the range of # of 7s as a percentage or SRR or RSR looks like
1 in SD % SD #7s
5.202 4 19.2236% 4 653.41
5.381 3 18.5844% 3 631.68
5.573 2 17.9451% 2 609.95
5.778 1 17.3059% 1 588.23
6.000 P 16.6667% ev 566.50
6.239 -1 16.0274% -1 544.77
6.498 -2 15.3882% -2 523.05
6.780 -3 14.7490% -3 501.32
7.087 -4 14.1097% -4 479.59
6.4 is within 2SD
still impressed??
531 or less 7s is just 1 in 19 shooters,
not 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 or 1 in 1 million.
There would be many (relative) random shooters (gorillas, flying nuns, blind squirrels, 7.01craps)
showing results better than Ahigh because
the curve says so.
It is that simple.
The more # of shooters (random rollers) the more with 6.4 and higher RSRs
(# of 7s lower than average)
Now try the same with 10k dice rolls or even 100k (haha) dice rolls and see if one can be at 6.4
(1 in 412 or 1 in what?? -8.8SD) hahaha
FrankS and the GTC group all claim over 8SRR (hahaha) proof... poof
Yeah, at home, short rolling with loaded dice (hahaha) over 1 million rolls maybe
and even got an old math guy to run sims based from that improbable 8+SRR. (oh,hahah)
But a high RSR translates in winning $$$. haha
No way says the peanut gallery.
Got to bet to win. And all Craps players play scared period
winwinwin,
gogogo
Annette O https://twitter.com/Annette_15
Still, funny stuff, Seinfeld funny.
entertainment = priceless
agree
You can shoot until you are blue in The face. If you're scared to bet, you are just spinning your wheels...
Quote: HexDicethe elements out of your control change once you hit the casino. So your hours recording 5,000 rolls are wasted
Eureka! Two people "get it"
Quote: HexDiceAnd the elements out of your control change once you hit the casino.
Its why professional athletes are paid so much.
Doing something alone and doing it front of
thousands of people or millions on TV changes
everything.
Professional athletes command a high remuneration solely because they are one of the few who CAN do what they do, whether in private or in public.
Quote: MrVthey are one of the few who CAN do what they do, whether in private or in public.
There are lots and lots of really good golfers
who play privately. People tell them they should
go pro. But when they try and make the cut,
their games fall apart. They can't play under
pressure. They have just as good a game as
a pro, but they can't do it under any kind of
stress.
There are fine film actors who fall apart in front
of a live stage audience. Marksman who can hit
the bullseye every time in practice, but can't win
a contest. Its why Doyle Brunson always won the
big bets playing golf. He didn't choke like everybody
else did when big money was on the line. Those
are special people. Pro's are special people.
Quote: MrVNo.
Professional athletes command a high remuneration solely because they are one of the few who CAN do what they do, whether in private or in public.
More importantly, if they can't perform in private, how in the hell can they expect to do it in public. Proof in private would not be complete proof, but it would very much be a massive step in the right direction.
Just like card counting, people showed it could be done in theory, then without the distractions, and then in real life.
Requiring exact casino conditions for any 'proof' is exception hunting. There's many ways to take steps to show a 'influence' effect. Lets see those first, if you so desire to show it occurs.
Quote: EvenBobThere are lots and lots of really good golfers
who play privately. People tell them they should
go pro. But when they try and make the cut,
their games fall apart. They can't play under
pressure. They have just as good a game as
a pro, but they can't do it under any kind of
stress.
There are fine film actors who fall apart in front
of a live stage audience. Marksman who can hit
the bullseye every time in practice, but can't win
a contest. Its why Doyle Brunson always won the
big bets playing golf. He didn't choke like everybody
else did when big money was on the line. Those
are special people. Pro's are special people.
As it relates to golf the primarily idea is to get the player desensitized to tournament play or big money matches. The only way to to become desensitized is to put yourself in tournament or big money matches over and over again. Virtually all the professional golfers today started playing tournament golf when they were babies. There are plenty of good Country Club hustlers. Most golf matches are won on the first tee before anybody tees off. Brunson, I'm guessing was not afraid to lose money. His opponents were.
Quote: treetopbuddyAs it relates to golf the primarily idea is to get the player desensitized to tournament play or big money matches. The only way to to become desensitized is to put yourself in tournament or big money matches over and over again. Virtually all the professional golfers today started playing tournament golf when they were babies. There are plenty of good Country Club hustlers. Most golf matches are won on the first tee before anybody tees off. Brunson, I'm guessing was not afraid to lose money. His opponents were.
Fear of failure. I'm prone to it, for sure.
Re: the golf example. All I have to say is, "Tin Cup"! Great great movie about exactly this subject.
Quote: treetopbuddyBrunson, I'm guessing was not afraid to lose money. His opponents were.
Brunson was really something in his day. He literally
wrote the book on Hold Um. He was a fearless player
with college degrees. Which he got way back when a
degree meant something. The amount of money bet
never fazed him in poker or golf, he was a born AP.
Quote: HexDiceWhy do the DI haters play craps if they don't believe it's possible - essentially saying an edge is not possible?
I am not a DI hater. I try to influence the dice myself. I think everyone should try -- because the game of craps gives the dice to a player and the player should do his best to get the numbers that will benefit him.
All I am saying is that I want to see the so-called dice influencers and dice controllers prove what they claim. So far, with the exception of one mystery shooter at Caesars and a surgeon from Washington that I've played with several times, I am yet to see anyone show me examples of what I can consider to be "control" for any significant number of throws.
Influence comes in varying degrees. I guess you could say hitting the back wall with both dice is a degree of influence.
On this forum there have been several players who have claimed to have some particular levels of dice influencing or dice control. One in particular has showed us videos that are supposed to be evident of this ability. I don't see it.
However, I see nothing wrong with trying, with practicing, and I do so myself. But I make no claims of having any talent or ability or skill. In fact, sometimes my "influenced" throws even bounce off the table.
That is like saying putting in 100 hours of practice on a driving range is a waste of time because all golf
courses are different.
Craps tables are like golf courses, certain ones fit your style better than others. If a golfer is very long ,but
not as accurate he will strugle on a shorter tight course . If a crap player ( DI) is a shorter person he will
struggle on a very high table.
The work you put in is vital, it helps you decide which tables, just like which courses fit you the best
and where you will get the best results. This is not the PGA, i dont have to play on tables that
would make my practice worthless.
Dicesetter
Anyone had LONG TERM success with sharpshooting at the craps table?? Long term success, not only 1-2 weeks of success I mean, thanks
Quote: IHMJackIm very curious, how good are you guys at shooting.
I'm happy to keep the dice on the table.
Tons of DI's are haveing great results fromQuote: IHMJackI believe maybe if you try avoid the cones in the back wall would help against randomness, toss low and try to only touch the bottom of the back wall where there is no cones.
Anyone had LONG TERM success with sharpshooting at the craps table?? Long term success, not only 1-2 weeks of success I mean, thanks
And none ever will. Think about it, if i was in Wisconsin and i had some great idea
that would grow pot and i had a fool proof way to grow it cheap, sell it at a very
high price and the cops would never find out,...... do you think i would take
an add out on the front page of the Milwaukee Journal to brag about it???.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterAXELWOLF
And none ever will. Think about it, if i was in Wisconsin and i had some great idea
that would grow pot and i had a fool proof way to grow it cheap, sell it at a very
high price and the cops would never find out,...... do you think i would take
an add out on the front page of the Milwaukee Journal to brag about it???.
dicesetter
Probably true. If you could reliably roll anything with greater than random results, you'd be able to skate from casino to casino, town to town, winning small amounts with regularity and large amounts once in a great while and pretty much make your living rolling dice.
It doesn't matter what you can roll - there's a way to bet on it that will win you money.
The biggest "danger" would be in having the industry identify you and then being blacklisted.
That is the bone of contention i always had with Ahigh, he wanted everyone to come on his "show"
to prove something that he could not prove. this would help him because it was on his show and it
would hurt the person that proved it.
I understand the casino's have this ass backwards....they worry about the few people in the country
that are good enough and play enough to really have an advantage. If you hit a $12000 pot on a slot
they put your picture on every wall, you make a grand on the table and they kick you out if they
think you can do it again.....
If casino's wanted to make money on craps they would have large roll counters and make a huge deal out
of good rolls, everyone in the casino would be at the craps table.
Instead tables are empty because random players wont go to an emty table and good players get
run off. the crew sits there looking at each other, no tips etc and the floor space is wasted because they
have 4 tables and are using 1.
boggles the mind.
dicesetter
Quote: TerribleTomI wouldn't call it a huge deal but I think it's the Fremont where I saw roll counters on the table and they give away jackets if you can hit some big number of rolls. And you're right, that table was busy on a Tuesday afternoon.
The walkway between Main Street Station and California has this as well. I don't know why more casinos don't do this by showcasing a great run from an -EV game. It shows that it is possible, and people could get rewarded by getting a cheap shirt or hat with "golden arm" or some nonsense like that. Free buffets for a year might be a great idea as well, anything to keep these guys coming back to throw dice to recreate that magic.
Quote: dicesitter
I understand the casino's have this ass backwards....they worry about the few people in the country
that are good enough and play enough to really have an advantage. If you hit a $12000 pot on a slot
they put your picture on every wall, you make a grand on the table and they kick you out if they
think you can do it again.....
If casino's wanted to make money on craps they would have large roll counters and make a huge deal out
of good rolls, everyone in the casino would be at the craps table.
Instead tables are empty because random players wont go to an emty table and good players get
run off. the crew sits there looking at each other, no tips etc and the floor space is wasted because they
have 4 tables and are using 1.
boggles the mind.
You would think that the casinos would have fantastic marketing skills and take advantage of something that doesn't happen very often, and that is the long roll. But instead of marketing the person's lucky roll, they have a knee-jerk reaction, because of all the fiction is written about DI's.
Even when their security consultants tell them that they have nothing to worry about, from anybody that sets the dice. They can't stand to see any table dump! So their first reaction is to run off good players that over the long run they would be losing money!
In today's market, it's not uncommon to see half of the craps tables sitting idle. One of the things that casinos never take into consideration is the guys that are setting the dice are usually the ones that will get a craps game going. It never fails you can find an empty table, but as soon as you step up to it, all of these so-called random rollers, come out of the woodwork.
That one table, could've sat idle for hours, just waiting for someone like a dice setters to step up to the table and buy-in! Casinos are missing their market any time they run a player off. Just ask any craps player why they play the game, and they will tell you because it's fun and entertainment.
Well getting hassled, only because you are setting the dice and getting lucky and now you're on roll, is not fun or entertainment!
Anymore the corporate way of thinking, is nobody should ever be able to win playing craps, and if they are, they want to get rid of them as fast as possible. You would think that they would run the data on anybody that got lucky every once in a while, to really see just how much they are losing, instead of using a knee-jerk reaction to a table dumping!