Are you ahead lifetime by leaving Come bets on after the point is hit?

i know, mathematically, it's better to have Come bets odds always working since it has a much lower house edge than a Passline roll.
but the vast majority of the time i'm never ahead.

i only have Come bets working if i have 3 or less Come bets. i dont have the mental fortitude to have 4+ come bets working on the Passline roll, even tho math says i should.

each session i write down how many points i lose vs how many i hit. (i throw away the paper after the session is over.)

unfortunately, after a year playing at least 1hr every week, most of my sessions are never up.
I lose more Come bets than I hit.
Variance?

Are you up or down with having Come bets working after the point is hit?


edit:
come bet odds

Come bets are always working. They can't be turned Off. Do you mean odds?

Quote: 100xOdds

i only have Come bets working if i have 3 or less Come bets

I think you mean you don't continue to make Come bets? or do you mean you don't put up the odds?

Quote: 100xOdds

but the vast majority of the time i'm never ahead.
...
Are you up or down with having Come bets working after the point is hit?

There was a long ago thread [maybe I can find it later] where the Wizard weighed in on this. The question was, does it benefit the house to make multiple come bets? You can imagine that it is like Roulette, where it must be true that it is stupid to bet all the numbers, since the house then would win exactly the same amount each round with zero variance. It makes sense in theory then that as you approach that condition, playing more and more numbers, the player lowers the variance. IMO this lower variance is a benefit to the house. Note though that the HE is not affected!

The Wizard said that the situation is not the same, IIRC Michael even said to make Come bets is the "anti-Hedge", meaning I guess the variance is increased rather than decreased. It is certainly true for me that the biggest win sessions I have ever had came from pressing hard with Come bets, which seems to verify that comment. It naturally is also true that my biggest losses came from the same practice, also verifying.

But I know what you mean. My mind always involuntarily goes back to the question, was I just helping the house get its expected return by all those come bets? That pops up when I lose big of course [vbg]

Of course, just betting more always helps the house, if that is what the Come betting causes you to do ... to bet more than you would have otherwise.

PS: I will vote no, because it is all about just that ... what the amount of your action is , not when you bet it.

You just haven't hit the big 100+ roll yet. Always leave them on, no matter how many bets you have up. Especially on the e-craps machine where it is so easy to turn them on. (I usually keep them off on live games since it is such a P.I.T.A. to inform each successive dealer.)

Quote: odiousgambit

The Wizard said that the situation is not the same, IIRC Michael even said to make Come bets is the "anti-Hedge", meaning I guess the variance is increased rather than decreased. It is certainly true for me that the biggest win sessions I have ever had came from pressing hard with Come bets, which seems to verify that comment. It naturally is also true that my biggest losses came from the same practice, also verifying.

I guess you've got to look at it this way - if you can lose so much at once, with such a low edge, lengthy winning streaks must exist to counterbalance it, meaning a fairly high variance.

On the simulations I've run, keeping the odds working on come bets has not resulted in making a profit more often, it has resulted in larger profits when they are made.

I'm wondering if others have found this when doing sim runs?

that makes sense, when you hit them it looks good, but over all you are exposing your
bets to the law of averages and that says for every bet you make there is a house advantage,
and therefore an expected loss.

Say you have $75 on 4 & 10 and $75 on 5 & 9 and $90 on the six and leave them all up for the
roll. that is an expected loss of $14.50 for the roll. You cant get around the math of the game.

Over-all the fewer hands your money is exposed to, the smaller is your over-all lose. NOw that
is for a random thrower or a DI that has not been shown to have an advantage by some thing
like smart craps.

Dicesetter.

You will lose more come bets than you make. That's just the way the bet is, and why the odds pay more than 1:1. And a lot of the wins will be on 7-outs. In its come-out roll, a come bet's s a hedge. In the point phase, it's a press (trading win likelihood to get potential for bigger payouts) that requires multiple points to be hit before you see a profit. The more come bets you have on the table, the less the win likelihood and the greater the potential payout.

It's not strictly "better." In fact I find it kind of irrelevant. IMO. Do what you like when it comes to come bet odds.

I've been working my Come bet odds for about 2 years now.

First, I don't CB often in a session, but I usually do a few shooters where I will make a few, or a CB every time. When I first started doing it, I was hitting my working odds WAY more than I was losing bets to the Come Out 7 winner. Then the worm turned on me, and I went through a period where I lost damn near every CB odds I had working. Now I seem to lose them on a 2:1 ratio, but the 1 part is made up of CB Odds winners AND pushes, where the number rolled is not one of my CB odds.

Typical example was my 3 hour stop at Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs on July 2.
I worked TWO CB odds at the first opp. Lost both to a come out 7.
I worked ONE CB odds at next opp, and neither lost nor won.
I worked TWO CB odds at next opp, and lost both to a 7.
Finally, I worked ONE CB Odds, and the shooter hit my number.

So 1 Win, 2 losses, and 1 Tie. BUT, when you look at individual bets,
1 Win , 4 Losses, and 1 Tie

I interpret that to show I am still getting KILLED on working the CB Odds, but I will continue to do it with 3 or less bets. It is fun to get paid.

Another heavy losing session. DP was the correct strategy ;-(
I had one nice little run at the table. $5 table, so I had $5 PL and then played $54 across. I then made a $5 CB every time, and used the place money win to take max odds. Shooter managed to hit every number, so I had the bases loaded, with $5 CB coming every time. 7 out. Never got paid on a single damn Come Bet, but got a bit of money back from the $54 across due to 3-4-5x max odds.