Missed the big roll - AGAIN
Quote: kenarmanI was in the Grand Villa Casino this weekend and missed another big roll Grrrrr. They only have 1 table and it was packed 3 deep when I arrived after the drive down, so knowing I wouldn't get on, I did a few other things like walking the dog and having a beer and a snack. Wandered over to the table about an hour later and was able to get a spot as of course the giant roll was over. Lady shooter had just made 14 points and held the dice for an hour and a half. They also have the fire bet but she had only hit 5 of the numbers (no 10, good for 250 to 1). It always surprises me how little money is made on these big rolls. Biggest cash I saw was $7,800 and that was a fellow that usually starts with green and seems be quite aggressive but he must have slowed his bet increases as they got larger.
So..... How was the beer? lol
It is the glass half full/empty thing. If I had been in the roll at the beginning I would have cashed about $10K and been thrilled. Someone would have been sure to mention the $4K that I had on the table and lost when the shooter sevened-out.
Quote: kenarmanLady shooter had just made 14 points and held the dice for an hour and a half.
Timing wise is nothing really...Hell, once the table took off, the payouts/presses probably took so long that each throw of the dice probably at least took 2 minutes and shit, that's only like 45 tosses of the dice then...
Quote: kenarmanIt always surprises me how little money is made on these big rolls. Biggest cash I saw was $7,800 and that was a fellow that usually starts with green and seems be quite aggressive but he must have slowed his bet increases as they got larger.
Yeah, see above...to REALLY make huge money, you really have to be hitting longshots (ie: 30-1 or 15-1 payouts)
A month or so ago my gf was rolling the dice...and we had watched this guy come in for a $15k marker and LITERALLY get slaughtered (and he was playing decent too, come bets, place 6/8, buy 4/10)...disgusted, he went and drew $500 out of the ATM and came back to the table...he threw the $500 down on the beginning of my gf's roll and placed the 10 for $500 and my gf immediately hit the 10...then he began making line bets with odds...he was raking in the chips (like $200 flat + 3/4/5x) Towards the end of the roll, my gf hit him 3, $3000 hits (table max; $200 Yo, $100 Aces, then $100 Boxcars) Boom-Boom-Boom, he made $9000 straight right there...when my gf finally 7'd-out, he immediately bought his marker back and cashed out...a tidy $22k...
But in the end he only REALLY made $13k on her roll and like I said, he hit the 10 a few times for $1000 a pop...so the real money maker were the horn's...
She must have been a DI.Quote: kenarmanI was in the Grand Villa Casino this weekend and missed another big roll Grrrrr. They only have 1 table and it was packed 3 deep when I arrived after the drive down, so knowing I wouldn't get on, I did a few other things like walking the dog and having a beer and a snack. Wandered over to the table about an hour later and was able to get a spot as of course the giant roll was over. Lady shooter had just made 14 points and held the dice for an hour and a half. They also have the fire bet but she had only hit 5 of the numbers (no 10, good for 250 to 1). It always surprises me how little money is made on these big rolls. Biggest cash I saw was $7,800 and that was a fellow that usually starts with green and seems be quite aggressive but he must have slowed his bet increases as they got larger.
But I let my imagination fly when I hear things like this.
First the possibilities on 14 passes. With $25 on the passline and an average bet of 4x odds, that could be worth $2,450.
Starting with $130 across and allowing for 2 rolls per minute, or 180 rolls, that would mean an average return (without pressing) of 180 X 35 = $6,300.
Total would be $8,750. If they allowed $10 on the fire add another $2,500 or if only $5 fire add $1250, for either $11,250 or $10,000 without pressing anything.
My "loose strategy" when I bet across is to start pressing once my initial outlay is won back, or I hit one pass, and then I press from the inside moving out. I usually stop pressing when all of the numbers are paying $100 or more on each hit.
So... continuing my dream.... if I had all the numbers pressed up to where they returned $105 each (or $100 for the 4 and 10) or greater (but let's use $100 per payoff to keep things easy) and I was getting those pays for 160 of the 180 rolls, the numbers would look something like this:
Payoffs on the passline with odds: $2450
Payoffs on the place bets for first 20 rolls: 20 X 35 = $700 (actually it would be higher as presses are made)
Payoffs on the place bets for the next 160 rolls: 160 X 100 = $16,000
$5 firebet payoff = $1250
total win with an initial outlay of $255 = $20,400
Nice dream, isn't it?
Quote: sevenout77Favorite numbers 4 and 10 bet the h*** out of. second best 5 & 9. I have been known to have several rolls as that. I can roll 10 4 for hours.
It's funny you say that... because I can also roll the 10 and 4 for hours, except when that pesky 7 gets in the way.
I think there should be an "insurance bet" in craps that gives you "one Mulligan".
Maybe one of the math guys could think up the proper fee to charge for a "Craps Mulligan" so that the casino has an edge but makes it worthwhile for the player to "buy."
Remember, it's my idea, so we have to split the big bucks.
Hmmm.... sounds like a lot of improbable things need to line up for only 20k when a guy could just try a 9/6 VP with a rebate or something and hit for 12k, 24k ,100k or anything in between.Quote: AlanMendelsonI have never been at a table for a roll that lasted an hour and a half. The longest roll was about 50 minutes.
But I let my imagination fly when I hear things like this.
First the possibilities on 14 passes. With $25 on the passline and an average bet of 4x odds, that could be worth $2,450.
Starting with $130 across and allowing for 2 rolls per minute, or 180 rolls, that would mean an average return (without pressing) of 180 X 35 = $6,300.
Total would be $8,750. If they allowed $10 on the fire add another $2,500 or if only $5 fire add $1250, for either $11,250 or $10,000 without pressing anything.
My "loose strategy" when I bet across is to start pressing once my initial outlay is won back, or I hit one pass, and then I press from the inside moving out. I usually stop pressing when all of the numbers are paying $100 or more on each hit.
So... continuing my dream.... if I had all the numbers pressed up to where they returned $105 each (or $100 for the 4 and 10) or greater (but let's use $100 per payoff to keep things easy) and I was getting those pays for 160 of the 180 rolls, the numbers would look something like this:
Payoffs on the passline with odds: $2450
Payoffs on the place bets for first 20 rolls: 20 X 35 = $700 (actually it would be higher as presses are made)
Payoffs on the place bets for the next 160 rolls: 160 X 100 = $16,000
$5 firebet payoff = $1250
total win with an initial outlay of $255 = $20,400
Nice dream, isn't it?
Quote: AxelWolfHmmm.... sounds like a lot of improbable things need to line up for only 20k when a guy could just try a 9/6 VP with a rebate or something and hit for 12k, 24k ,100k or anything in between.
It's interesting you wrote that because I was thinking the same thing. I'm a $5 VP player and so far this year I hit two royals for $20K each. I also hit one royal for $4,000 and one for $1,017 on a 25-cent progressive.
But the difference is if you get a good run on craps -- like a run that lasts a half hour or an hour -- your one time original bet grows and grows.
With video poker you might have to play the five-coins (quarters, dollars, five-dollar "coins") many times over before you hit the big royal. True, smaller wins along the way might help you "finance" your trip to the royal... but then you also might never hit a royal.
What I find fascinating is that the chance of making all six points on the fire bet is more likely than hitting a royal flush. Chance of a $5 fire bet hitting all six numbers and paying $5,000 is about 1 in 6,700. While the chance of a $5 bet at video poker hitting a royal flush that pays $4,000 is about 1 in 40,400.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI think there should be an "insurance bet" in craps that gives you "one Mulligan".
Maybe one of the math guys could think up the proper fee to charge for a "Craps Mulligan" so that the casino has an edge but makes it worthwhile for the player.
With so many variables and the variety of bets, that would be too complex to calculate.
And besides, it would violate one of the Wizard's Ten Commandments:
"Thou shall not hedge thy bets."
Quote: TIMSPEEDYeah, see above...to REALLY make huge money, you really have to be hitting longshots (ie: 30-1 or 15-1 payouts)
A month or so ago my gf was rolling the dice...and we had watched this guy come in for a $15k marker and LITERALLY get slaughtered (and he was playing decent too, come bets, place 6/8, buy 4/10)...disgusted, he went and drew $500 out of the ATM and came back to the table...he threw the $500 down on the beginning of my gf's roll and placed the 10 for $500 and my gf immediately hit the 10...then he began making line bets with odds...he was raking in the chips (like $200 flat + 3/4/5x) Towards the end of the roll, my gf hit him 3, $3000 hits (table max; $200 Yo, $100 Aces, then $100 Boxcars) Boom-Boom-Boom, he made $9000 straight right there...when my gf finally 7'd-out, he immediately bought his marker back and cashed out...a tidy $22k...
But in the end he only REALLY made $13k on her roll and like I said, he hit the 10 a few times for $1000 a pop...so the real money maker were the horn's...
I have to disagree Tim. Not saying that big money is never made on the inside bets and I have seen it happen many times. I have also been at the table and everybody on the numbers is winning bet after bet but the guys on the inside are getting killed, no hardways or horn numbers.
One of my somewhat decent sessions was turning $165 into $3500 with 2 shooters. These 2 shooters were friends and playing the same way, minimum line bet, field, hardways and often hi/lo or something similar. They both lost hundreds of dollars while making the money for me.
No I will stick with the math and stay away from the high HE middle.
Quote: sodawaterthere's no such thing as a "hot" table
Except that you can say a table was hot
Quote: odiousgambitExcept that you can say a table was hot
I like this idea. Obviously saying a table is hot implies that the point is more likely to hit than random chance. If it was hot, it was simply doing well for the bettors.
Quote: kenarmanYeah, see above...to REALLY make huge money, you really have to be hitting longshots (ie: 30-1 or 15-1 payouts)
A month or so ago my gf was rolling the dice...and we had watched this guy come in for a $15k marker and LITERALLY get slaughtered (and he was playing decent too, come bets, place 6/8, buy 4/10)...disgusted, he went and drew $500 out of the ATM and came back to the table...he threw the $500 down on the beginning of my gf's roll and placed the 10 for $500 and my gf immediately hit the 10...then he began making line bets with odds...he was raking in the chips (like $200 flat + 3/4/5x) Towards the end of the roll, my gf hit him 3, $3000 hits (table max; $200 Yo, $100 Aces, then $100 Boxcars) Boom-Boom-Boom, he made $9000 straight right there...when my gf finally 7'd-out, he immediately bought his marker back and cashed out...a tidy $22k...
But in the end he only REALLY made $13k on her roll and like I said, he hit the 10 a few times for $1000 a pop...so the real money maker were the horn's...
Impressive comeback considering he was dead...
sorry :)
Quote: AlanMendelsonIt's funny you say that... because I can also roll the 10 and 4 for hours, except when that pesky 7 gets in the way.
I think there should be an "insurance bet" in craps that gives you "one Mulligan".
Maybe one of the math guys could think up the proper fee to charge for a "Craps Mulligan" so that the casino has an edge but makes it worthwhile for the player to "buy."
Remember, it's my idea, so we have to split the big bucks.
I think Albert Brooks already covered that idea after his wife (played by Julie Hagerty) lost their next egg at roulette, betting "22", in the movie "Lost in America":
Quote: Albert Brooks as David Howard in "Lost in America"David Howard: As the boldest experiment in advertising history, you give us our money back.
Desert Inn Casino Manager: I beg your pardon?
Quote: AlanMendelsonIt's funny you say that... because I can also roll the 10 and 4 for hours, except when that pesky 7 gets in the way.
I think there should be an "insurance bet" in craps that gives you "one Mulligan".
Maybe one of the math guys could think up the proper fee to charge for a "Craps Mulligan" so that the casino has an edge but makes it worthwhile for the player to "buy."
Remember, it's my idea, so we have to split the big bucks.
this reminds me of a futurama episode where bender is playing craps. his cheating unit malfunctioned and he asks for a do-over. the stickman said something like "sorry sir but we only allow three do-overs and youve reached your limit".
