Couple questions from a newbie

I saw on the Wizard's site that he prefers questions get asked here and not sent to him. I thought I would give it a try. I appreciate any advice you can offer.

I play craps fairly regularly with no real strategy whatsoever. Sometimes it's pass line, sometimes it's place bets, sometimes sucker bets. I typically lose no matter what strategy I am playing and I really don't mind, as long as I'm having a good time doing it. In my quest to settle on a strategy that works for me I think I have decided the Don'ts are where I want to be, and I have a question about playing that way.


According to the Wizard's site the best way to play is Don't pass with max odds, seems simple enough. The obvious downside to the Don'ts is the come out roll beating you might take. What if I played $10 Don't Pass and $10 Pass line and then too max odds on the Don't bet? Am I not eliminating the possible Come out roll beating save for the 1:36 times I hit a 12? Am I now not playing with near zero house edge?



Second, I was talking with a Don't player who would Lay the 4 and 10 on the Come out roll to "protect" his Don't Pass line bet. He would play $50 Don't pass and then lay the 4 and 10 for $50 each. If the roll was not a 7 or 4/10 he would take the lays down and let the roll play out with just the line bet of $50. By my math I don't see where he is really protecting his line bet like that. There are 6 ways to roll a 7 and 6 ways to roll a 4/10, right? Isn't he just shifting the risk from a 7 to the 4/10 and paying 5% to do so?

Again, I appreciate any help you can be.

Playing both the do's and don'ts on the same come out roll is silly. You can only either tie or lose. 1/36 happens, well, almost 3% of the time! Would you ever bet both Red and Black on the same roulette spin?
Each bet has its own house edge and its own variance. "Protecting" a bet generally just decreases the variance, but you can never decrease the house edge on a given bet.
If you want to play 'with a near zero house edge', try betting the passline for the table minimum, then maximum odds. The house edge is a teeny weeny bit higher than if you play the same strategy on the don'ts, but since you also mentioned 'good time', most players tend to have a better time if they can celebrate with the rest of the table.

The more pass / don't pass bets you make, the higher your expected loss. Betting both is a bad idea.

Betting both will decrease your variance, but that's not what you want. You want to have fun.

Taking odds doesn't help you in pass or don't pass. It's a zero house edge bet. Just play don't pass, and then if you want to play odds, great. If not, that's fine too.

Playing both sides, called the "Doey-Don't" method, has its advantages, and shouldn't be dismissed as fast as SooPoo indicates.

If you're gonna do that, only do it if you're planning on taking (or laying) max odds. Note that you'll usually get zero in comps for this.

Also, if you play the Doey-Don't, a better method of protection is a buck on boxcars on come outs.


SooPoo is right about one thing. If your objective is fun, bet on the Pass along with everyone else so you can join them in the cheers.

OK, I appreciate those replies.

What about the second part of my post? Is my math misleading me or is there no advantage to the lay bets as protection for a Don't pass bet?

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Playing both sides, called the "Doey-Don't" method, has its advantages, and shouldn't be dismissed as fast as SooPoo indicates.

If you're gonna do that, only do it if you're planning on taking (or laying) max odds. Note that you'll usually get zero in comps for this.

Also, if you play the Doey-Don't, a better method of protection is a buck on boxcars on come outs.


SooPoo is right about one thing. If your objective is fun, bet on the Pass along with everyone else so you can join them in the cheers.

I disagree. It's gambling, not protecting. If you're not afraid of the $100 odds, why are you afraid of the $10 don't pass bet? Especially if you're going to lose comps. I don't get it.

Quote: AtGame7

OK, I appreciate those replies.

What about the second part of my post? Is my math misleading me or is there no advantage to the lay bets as protection for a Don't pass bet?

The Wizard's commandment 7: "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets." That is a hedge. I won't go into any further detail. I do see why people might do it, though.

I see nothing wrong with Laying the 4,10...but why take them down once you've made the bet?

My 2 cents now [g]

Quote: AtGame7

The obvious downside to the Don'ts is the come out roll beating you might take.

If you play high enough odds, like 5x, you won't much care what happens on one roll resolutions. What will kill you is a hot shooter that takes your points-to-make down one after the other [by winning them right-side]. Those'll be your big bets.

Quote: AtGame7

What if I played $10 Don't Pass and $10 Pass line and then too max odds on the Don't bet? Am I not eliminating the possible Come out roll beating save for the 1:36 times I hit a 12? Am I now not playing with near zero house edge?

When making bet combinations, the best way to keep from getting confused on the matter is to check out the EV, not the HE. Each bet has that Expected Value and it cannot be defeated. You are betting more for dubious effect. Like I say, you won't even care what is happening on one roll line resolution if you are going max odds.

Quote: FleaStiff

I see nothing wrong with Laying the 4,10...but why take them down once you've made the bet?

If I understand correctly it is to protect his Don't Pass line bet from a 7. IF that made sense he would nullify the house edge on the come out roll (two ways to throw a yo and 3 ways to throw aces or ace deuce) and be playing as a favorite from then on out if a point is established.

I guess I just don't know enough about odds and probabilities to understand if my math is correct. I mean, I know there are six ways to throw a 7 and six ways to throw a 4/10. What I don't know is if it's fair to combine the 4/10 combinations or if I should treat them as separate entities (each being a 3:6 favorite to win the lay bet).

He then takes them down since they were only insurance for his line bet.

Quote: AtGame7

If I understand correctly it is to protect his Don't Pass line bet from a 7.

Quote: Beethoven9th

And what happens when the shooter gets hot and starts hitting 4's and 10's? You'll be down 3 units (DP + Lay bet). And that's not even counting vig.

Certainly that could happen, but odds are against it. At the end of the day all any of us can do is put the odds as close to our way as possible (or as least in the house favor as possible I should say).

Again, I don't play that way, I was just wondering if there was an advantage I didn't see. In my opinion if you are playing a $25 Don't Pass line bet and:

1. You just ride out the come out roll there are 8 ways to roll a 7/11 that hurts you.

2. If you lay the 4/10 there are 8 ways to roll a number that hurts you.


I'm just wanted to know if there was and advantage to laying the 4/10 that I wasn't seeing.

Thanks

Quote: AtGame7

Certainly that could happen, but o

Atgame7


you have to look at it like this, each bet you make is a seperate game your playing with the casino. Each
bet has a house advantage. If you place a dont come bet, the house will take $1.36 out of every $100
you bet, If you lay the 4 or 10, the house will $2.44 out of every $100 you bet.

There is no way to get around the math. If you place a $20 dont pass bet and cover it on the come out
with a $40 lay on the 4, and it works, you dont lose either.... you feel wow that was the right play. however
there are times they will throw a 7 or 11 and there are times they will throw the 4 and then a 7 or 11.

in the end you can not escape the house advantage, it may just appear you have, but you have just put it off.

Dicesitter

A simple don't play: assume a five dollar minimum line bet is required.

Bet $10 DP, then $5 DC, followed by $10 DC.

Once the initial DP is in place, it acts as a sort of "free hedge" against the 7 on the ensuing DC come out rolls.

No mathematical advantage play, obviously; just another way to roll.















































4

Quote: Beethoven9th

I'm not sure if you understand that the house accounts for this with the payout (bet 2 to win 1) + vig.



There are 6 ways to lose if you lay both the 4 and 10 (3 ways to roll a '4', 3 ways to roll a '10'). And if one of those numbers is rolled, then you now must win twice to get your 2 units back. (And even then, you're still down the vig)

In each scenario I was counting the two ways to throw an 11 as ways to lose.

About the zero house edge: the zero house edge does not exist when betting both the pass line and the don't pass at the same time because of the 12. But the 12 after a point has been established doesn't hurt.

This is in a FAQ, but 29% of the rolls are comeout roll on average. The 12 happens 1 in 36 rolls or 2.78% of the time.

So it you take .29 * .0278 you will see that on average 1/36th of 29% is 0.8% .. which is, in effect like losing your bet on average 1 in 124 rolls (not every time the 12 comes as it might seem more intuitive). And even when that happens you only lose HALF.

So could you think of it like the edge on an imaginary roulette wheel where you have 248 places the ball could land, and one of those places both the don't pass and the pass bets lose. Or you could think of it as a roulette wheel with 124 places the ball lands and one of those places causes each bet to lose only half the amount they bet either way.

The way it really works is 29% of the time (on the comeout rolls) if you roll the 12 (2.78% of the time) you lose roughly HALF of what you bet on each of the pass line and don't pass.

If it were a free bet, the don't pass would be paid half of what they bet on the 12 on the comeout and the pass line would lose half of what it bet on the 12 on the comeout if that helps you understand.

But the edge PER roll is roughly like losing your entire bet due to the edge 1 in 248 rolls (on AVERAGE) the way the math works out (or about 0.4% edge per roll -- it's actually 0.4% for the don't and 0.42% for the do).

There's not much volatility to this bet every roll. Here's a chart of various numbers of passline bets with no odds for both craps and crapless for lots of rolls, and you can see the lines representing the various edges per roll for each strategy and each maximum number of come bets out there. This is modeled for a $5 bet on the line.