My guess is you will win the very next betQuote: tgotch
I have been practicing it on wincraps with some success.
after 3 no-fields, on average, 44.4% of the time (4 out of 9)
But are you thinking of doing some kind of negative progression to win just one time??
Sure, I have tried it many times.Quote: tgotch
Anyone ever try this,
Even waiting just 2 non-fields then betting the field.
Also waiting for 6 non-fields and betting the field.
IMO, Too much waiting for a 4 in 9 chance to win on the very next bet.
How about this.
ONLY bet the field after it just hit.
if it loses, wait until the next field hits and bet the very next roll.
Chance of success = 16/36 or 4 in 9 (44.4%)
Sure it works.Quote: tgotch
or know if it works?
It works about 44.4% of the time for the very next roll.
there will be variance around that 44.4% figure for X rolls,
but you did not ask about that.
You did not ask but...
Want a higher win rate?
Bet the pass line for 49.3% chance of winning
Not high enough??
Lay the 4 or the 10 and win 66.67% of the time.
The best it gets for just one bet made
But I am baffled by your above remark that betting the pass line will be giving up a 33.33% house advantage. I am sure you are itching to enlighten me.
You didn't tell them not to bet the pass line after the point is already marked up on a 4 or a 10. You would know about the pitfalls of a new player if you gave them advice as often as I do while at the table.
The first question I would ask a new player is "what's the most amount of money you are comfortable losing on a single toss of the dice."
You pretty much assume that somebody is okay with that being $30.
If I got that answer, and the person wasn't so stupid as not to make a put bet, I would agree with you.
But there are plenty of new players who can have just as much fun resolving their bets immediately and getting a triple every now and then and jumping up and down.
Any system will work until it stops working.
Some people don't want to stand there all day long and just want to make one bet and be done.
If they are losing on a long roll, you can be laughing in the field while they are digging for more money.
One more point about the field, if you must bet the field, don't combine it with a passline or come bet at the same time. This is not as smart.
Thank you Aaron. Your gems--several of which I quoted above--have been a source of enlightenment for me today.
This has to be the best all time.Quote: Ahigh
your suggestion that the player learn about the game before they play it is what is absurd.
You have no clear idea as to what I know about the game of craps and what advice I offer others. On the other hand, based on your postings, I have a fairly good idea as to the advice you give while you are at the table.Quote: Ahigh
You would know about the pitfalls of a new player if you gave them advice as often as I do while at the table.
I have told the Wizard to his face that some of his advice on how to bet rubs me the wrong way.
You guys who follow his advice based purely on mathematics and "in the long run..." are actually a MINORITY of craps players. I know because I see craps players all day long, and VERY FEW OF THEM bet the way that the Wizard or you guys describe.
In your myopic worlds, collectively, these people are just wrong.
In my world, they aren't. They are legitimate craps players having fun playing the game. As a matter of fact, on average, THEY define how the game is played, not your mathematical approach to how "best" play the game. The REAL world is them, not you! And the real world of playing craps is not an intelligent person "learning the game before you play." That's just how it is whether you like it, or not!!!
And they play the game in a way that you guys think is wrong.
Clearly, there is not a right or a wrong way to have fun pissing away your money at the casino.
You do it however the hell you want!
You guys that subscribe to the fact that the only way to play the game is the way that people on this forum generally agree on have very limited methods of considering what this game is for.
As a matter of perspective, this forum, and the Wizard himself, are generally against the idea of people "foolishly" letting their money be lost in the casino. I think the dogma that's shared on here for craps is that you want to make the process of losing all of your money be as slow and drawn out as possible, maximizing the time you have to spend to get rid of it all by lowering the edge to almost give you a false sense of hope that you could win. But KEEP PLAYING, of course, to get that EXPERIENCE so you can play SMARTER.
My opinion is that if you wanna go and waste your money, don't let some smart ass tell you you're wrong. Go for it! Your life is probably not as troubled as his if you're alright with losing and having fun at the same time.
I think I just saw a post from a myopic member of this forum basically saying that they cannot understand someone intentionally losing their money.
So there ya go!
Call me what you want, but all I am saying is there is more than one valid way of losing your money.
If you want to be strict as strict can be, the only true answer is BE SMART DON'T START.
Don't pretend that a smaller edge will prevent you from losing it all!
And definitely don't pretend that your playing the game for more years than someone else makes you smarter. Especially if you're lost more on the game than the person asking the questions!
So how often do you make field bets? How well does that go with those 6s & 8s you love to throw?
I respect your perspective, but why would you promote something that you don't even use...
I'm a live player as well, and My perspective is "it's a bad habit" I don't play it.... And I am almost certain after he plays a while, he'll do the same..
Your comments are very myopically assuming that people who don't think they way you do don't exist.
It does work! It ABSOLUTELY WORKS for more 44% of the people who only ever want to make one craps bet in their life!
And 2.78% of those people QUADRUPLE THEIR MONEY!
Stop thinking like the way you do it is the only way that is worthwhile.
If I have a point it is this: don't be so narrow minded. We are talking about GAMBLING IN A CASINO not heart surgery.
You lose in the long run no matter what you do until you get to AP.
So few people successfully do AP, it's another subject.
Some people who lose real quick and never gamble again are WAY BETTER OFF FOR IT in the long run.
But hell no I don't do field bets on random shooters shooting what I believe are fair dice!
If I do a field bet, I'll use a boxcar set. And even that, it's hard to overcome the house edge.
But in theory, I could. I just prefer to bet lower edge bets instead.
Before I used my software to advise my sets, plenty of people won money with field and even horn bets on my throw because those 12's were coming out like crazy between June and August 2012 on my rolls with the boxcar set.
But again, and to reiterate, please stop the myopia! Even stupid ways of gambling are maybe more stupid than relatively more intelligent ways of gambling and still having a negative expectation. They are both considered just as stupid by people that are smart enough not to gamble in the first place. Context!!!!
IE: it's splitting hairs as far as a new-comer is concerned. All the things we're arguing between are still twice as good as roulette on the edge side of things.
Or they could become a degenerate gambler and lose everything they worked for their entire life. But I'm sure you know better than me that they will have more fun the more they play.