MBA class question on probabilities

Hello,
I am currently taking a statistics class and there was a question regarding probability methods. I disagreed with the answer and wanted to check here to see if I was correct. Question:

At gambling casinos all over the country, a popular dice game is called craps. The probability of a player winning at this game can be assessed using which of the following methods? Note: if you don't know the game, you may have to do a quick search on it to answer the question.

a) Subjective Probability
b) Classical Probability
c) Empirical Probability
d) None of these

What is the correct answer? I will provide the class solution and my thoughts after I get some unbiased responses.

Thanks.

b

what bet in the game of Craps?
There are many

final answer

b

7craps thanks for a quick reply. Here is my rebuttal to b being the answer.

The question isn't stating the odds of a player winning on one craps roll, it is asking the odds of a player winning/losing. With this I would assume you are playing more than one roll of the dice. If this is the case than you are also bringing into the equation things like fire bets, yo bets, multiple come bets, odds on point bets, multiple don't pass bets, odds on don't pass bets, etc. Unless I am 100% off base in classical probability, there is no chance you are calculating all of these possible bets for an entire night of betting using classical probability.

There are many multi-roll bets (one or more rolls for the bet to be resolved)
and many one roll bets (one roll ONLY for the bet to be resolved)
in the game of Craps.

Good Luck

I would have said b. It could have been worded better, but I think you're over-thinking it, and they just meant the probability of a single pass line bet winning, or any one bet.

I take it that you've copies the question word-for-word.

People here don't need to look up the game of craps. However, I'd need to look up those three choices!

What is this game of craps that you speak of? :)

To the extent that "the probability of a player winning at this game" is indefinite, the answer is (d), none of the above, but the only sensible answer is (b). You can calculate the probability of winning any individual bet using classical probability. You don't have any other details on which to base a subjective opinion, and empirical analysis only happens after the fact. As soon as "the probability of a player winning" is defined, whatever that definition is, the solution can be found using classical probability.

I agree that the question is badly worded, but the only logical answer is B. Wiz is right don't read too much into the question.

Thanks for the feedback. I agree I was reading to much into it and should just argue that the question was poorly worded.

Ha. That is pretty funny. Yes, I did cut and paste the question.