Is Dice Control Real? Can It Be Tested?
Quote: petroglyphI don't understand your intent here? And, I don't really want to accept the way it appears at first glance. What are you saying, tupp?
If you believe that DI's are "drink swilling, cigar smoking, chip throwing loud mouth" shooters, you probably do not understand what you are looking at -- you are probably ignorant of fundamental concepts behind DI methods and practice.
Quote: AlanMendelsonPitchers have a skill: its called pitching. Pitching is from the mound to the strike zone. What kind of silly argument are you trying to dream up about hitting a strike zone from center field?
Please explain this.
First, please address the question that I asked first (and it really is just a "yes or no" question): Do you think that a pitcher that is skillful in pitching strikes from the mound suddenly loses his throwing skills when he has to pitch strikes from the center field wall?
Thank you.
We all know he dose not lose his skill.Quote: tuppFirst, please address the question that I asked first (and it really is just a "yes or no" question): Do you think that a pitcher that is skillful in pitching strikes from the mound suddenly loses his throwing skills when he has to pitch strikes from the center field wall?
Thank you.
Quote: AxelWolfWe all know he dose not lose his skill.
Thank you.
Please allow Alan to answer.
Quote: tuppYou really believe that's how it works, don't you?
Thats how a skill works, how else. Either
you're in control or you aren't. If you can't
roll what you want when you want, whats
the frigging point. It not like you're the only
one who always has the dice, is it.
Quote: EvenBobThats how a skill works, how else. Either you're in control or you aren't. If you can't roll what you want when you want, whats the frigging point.
So, there is no point in playing black jack nor video poker, because you can't get the hand you want when you want?
I know a guy who runs an illegal craps game in his house. The dice are loaded and I suspected that they were loaded. They are high quality dice, and the loading was only so subtle as to give the six a statistically noticeable, but not absolute, chance of landing face down, meaning that the ace would roll. I know this because I stepped on one of the dice when it fell off the table, and took it to the bathroom to inspect it. The ace on that dice had a very subtle marking.
When i went back to the next game, i looked at the other dice and i noticed that the other dice had subtle markings on them, which indicated the weighted side on the dice.
Obviously, the guy had confederates who would pick appropriate dice. For example, if there was lots of money in play on the bets, and they wanted a seven to roll, the confederate would roll the dice off the table and then the stick would pass new dice to the shooter. The confederate would take all five remaining dice, minus the one that flew off the table (another point of suspicion is that they used six total die, rather than the casino standard five), and deliberately pick two dice, and then within the next two to four rolls, always seven out.
Of course, I know which dice were loaded, so when it comes my turn to shoot, I do hop bets and place bets, but never winning so much as to arouse suspicion. I win like 500 a month playing this game, as they are a small time game and max their bets at $25. But I am a consistent winner, and it gives me entertainment.
Like I said, I'm a dice influencer, verifiable. I am also a jackass, this I know, so no need to verify.
Quote: tuppSo, there is no point in playing black jack nor video poker, because you can't get the hand you want when you want?
You control the dice or you don't, it can't be
compared to any other casino game. You
control the outcome. Supposedly.
And please be clear about your point because this one is literally and figuratively "coming out of left field." (Or is it deep center?)
I rolled a total of three sevens for the entire session.
As I told them when I won, "I rarely get this lucky!!"
I rolled zero aces and zero twelves for the session.
I made fish for dinner, arctic char for the first time. It was in a soy-ginger glaze. I thiink I should have marinated it for longer. I served it with grilled asparagus and basmati rice. It was quite good. It's not rare for me to make good food, however. My wife wants more fish so now I make it once a week... I'm trying to discover what kind of fish will be my staple -- salmon? Mahi-Mahi? Trout? I just don't know.
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I think that for the baseball argument, I think the better and more sensical challenge would be for a pitcher to have to bounce a baseball off of home plate, hit the backstop, and then land in a certain (say 2x2) chalk zone. Anytime it goes outside of a concentric 5x5 zone would be an "out".
Dice influence is a skill, indeed. Can it be proven by a short session at a casino? No.
It can only be proven through hypothesis and expermentation using proven statistical methods with fair dice at a real table. It's easy enough to prove. You just gotta do the experiment with a large enough sample size and post the results. You have success when you show that your results deviate far enough from random to be very unlikely, and with cameras rolling, you should be able to show how your dice throw differs from anyone elses.
Quote: tuppIf you believe that DI's are "drink swilling, cigar smoking, chip throwing loud mouth" shooters, you probably do not understand what you are looking at -- you are probably ignorant of fundamental concepts behind DI methods and practice.
Thanks for getting back to me on that. I've hung out after games with athlete's and many of them are drink swilling, cigar smoking, tip throwing, loud mouths. [If that's what I believe] No not necessarily. The best dice shooter's I've seen weren't drinking, didn't smoke and were not loud at all.
Sure, if you want to go there. I'm ignorant of a lot of things. I asked for edification and you provided it. I do study the game and maybe not like you think.
Could you share with me what fundamental concepts you think I don't understand?
You do seem to take umbridge if anyone mentions that di may not be real. I [again] can't understand why. Why does it matter? I also don't understand why you or the other guy or two are the final arbiter's of what constitutes influence. I'm sure there are other definitions. Have you considered that there might be some "so called di's" out there that just don't want in this stupid argument? At this point someone would have to be masochistic to insinuate anything other than random events. I was convinced for a while some were in it only for the smack down.
I think it was scojus Brennan that said" I may not be able to define it, but I know it when I see it"
Quote: AlanMendelsonAs Axel said, a pitcher doesn't lose his skill as a pitcher when he throws from the center field wall. Now that I've answered it, what point are you trying to make Tupp?
Here is the point: Even with the same level of expertise as that of the top MLB pitchers, a skillful DI is not able to throw desired results nearly as consistently as pitchers can throw strikes. (Furthermore, a DI doesn't have to do so -- not even close.)
Think about it -- because the task is much more difficult, a pitcher would not be able to throw strikes from the center field wall with anywhere near the same consistency as he can from the mound, even though the pitcher has mastered his throwing skills.
It is merely a mental baby step to realize that the same concept applies to dice influencing -- DIs can be highly skilled, but the difficulty of the task prevents results as consistent as pitchers can throw strikes.
So, you are mistaken and unrealistic in insisting that "Until you or anyone can throw the dice by design as consistently as a pitcher can throw a strike, DIs have not mastered any skill."
Skill is one thing. Difficulty of a task is another thing. (Required consistency to gain an edge is yet another thing...)
Quote: tuppHere is the point: Even with the same level of expertise as that of the top MLB pitchers, a skillful DI is not able to throw desired results nearly as consistently as pitchers can throw strikes.
You missed the point, or else you never played baseball. A major league pitcher can throw a strike every single time he picks up a ball. It's just that sometimes a pitcher doesn't want to throw a pitch right across the letters in the center of the strike zone because the pitcher doesn't want the batter to have a "clean shot."
In craps there is no batter. In craps the shooter has every opportunity he has the dice to throw a "perfect throw" right into the flat portion of the back wall. But how many can?
Quote: boymimboDice influence is a skill, indeed. Can it be proven by a short session at a casino? No.
It can only be proven through hypothesis and expermentation using proven statistical methods with fair dice at a real table. It's easy enough to prove. You just gotta do the experiment with a large enough sample size and post the results. You have success when you show that your results deviate far enough from random to be very unlikely, and with cameras rolling, you should be able to show how your dice throw differs from anyone elses.
I would accept as proof of someone controlling the dice if the two dice travel together, bounce softly, remain on axis, gently bounce off the back wall and come to rest on a number that is among the desired numbers.
Ahigh has the technology to show this even if he has never thrown two dice that traveled together, remained on axis, bounced lightly off the table and the back wall.
Even if someone with a bird brain admitted that it had been proven to them that they could see the influence from a method of bouncing, the statistics are the same.
The proof lies within performance a statistically improbably feat routinely.
These discussions are pointless. Analogies for the discussion of what it would take to "prove" to an individual are merely a waste of time.
However, if spectating is your vantage point, I can see how the analogy of sports is appropriate.
That's great truly glad to see you win, however I'm not sure why you're always telling everyone this information? it dose not really mean much towards the DI conversation/debate because it's not verified It's just your word even though I may believe you I'm sure many do not. As often as you win it almost seems bragy at best and lying at worst no harm no foul, however It almost hurts your credibility if you have time and opportunities to do something that would prove your dream or goal, but you avoid doing so. Why do I say that? Absolutely Not to upset you, but in hopes you will find a way to truly document ALL of your sessions and then do it. Overall the ONLY THING that truly counts in this debate about DI is documented winning period. I think your fans and critics will all gain a much higher respect for you once you commit to some verified documentation. I bet people that normally block this thread or avoid it will look just to see your daily reports. Besides everyone is always rooting for the underdog. Why wast valuable real life real money rolls? Have someone you respect but dose not believe in DI come up with a way that would satisfy even your worst critics.Quote: AhighIn between my previous post and this post, I won $480 ($100 buy-in to $590 less $10 tip) in less than 30 minutes at crapless at the Stratosphere betting $10 line/come bets and single odds working the comeout on every roll.
I rolled a total of three sevens for the entire session.
As I told them when I won, "I rarely get this lucky!!"
I rolled zero aces and zero twelves for the session.
Quote: boymimboI think that for the baseball argument, I think the better and more sensical challenge would be for a pitcher to have to bounce a baseball off of home plate, hit the backstop, and then land in a certain (say 2x2) chalk zone. Anytime it goes outside of a concentric 5x5 zone would be an "out".
That is a very suitable challenge/analogy.
I was trying to keep it simple for Alan. Apparently, that didn't help.
Quote: tupp
I was trying to keep it simple for Alan. Apparently, that didn't help.
Here's how you can make it simple: show me a slow motion video of ONE controlled throw. Just ONE.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou missed the point, or else you never played baseball.
Actually, I have played a decent amount of baseball, but one of us certainly has missed some points:
And a prior post:Quote: AlanMendelsonA major league pitcher can throw a strike every single time he picks up a ball.
Quote: tupp
And a prior post:Quote: AlanMendelsonIt's just that sometimes a pitcher doesn't want to throw a pitch right across the letters in the center of the strike zone because the pitcher doesn't want the batter to have a "clean shot."
Quote: tupp
And a prior post:Quote: AlanMendelsonIn craps there is no batter.
Quote: tupp
Problems with reading comprehension?
Quote: AlanMendelsonIn craps the shooter has every opportunity he has the dice to throw a "perfect throw" right into the flat portion of the back wall. But how many can?
A pitcher standing at the center field wall has every opportunity to throw a perfect strike over home plate, but how many can?
Quote: tuppA pitcher standing at the center field wall has every opportunity to throw a perfect strike over home plate, but how many can?
Hey Tupp, would you mind explaining to me how this comment of yours tries to show that dice control is possible or even can happen?
And don't forget my challenge to you to simply prove to me the possibility that dice control works:
Quote: AlanMendelsonHere's how you can make it simple: show me a slow motion video of ONE controlled throw. Just ONE.
Quote: AlanMendelsonHey Tupp, would you mind explaining to me how this comment of yours tries to show that dice control is possible or even can happen?
It doesn't try to show that dice influencing is possible.
The comment was a simple analogy merely demonstrating that dice influencing is as difficult as a pitcher trying to throw strikes from the center field fence. The pitcher can be the most skilled in the major leagues, but, nevertheless, his consistency of throwing strikes will be low. Likewise, a DI could have "major league" skills, but he won't be able to throw a point number on demand (no matter how much you insist he should be able to).
Don't know if I have any more energy to further help you understand this basic concept.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAnd don't forget my challenge to you to simply prove to me the possibility that dice control works:
I will be happy to make a video of a controlled throw, as long as you provide the DI.
Quote: petroglyphThanks for getting back to me on that. I've hung out after games with athlete's and many of them are drink swilling, cigar smoking, tip throwing, loud mouths. [If that's what I believe] No not necessarily. The best dice shooter's I've seen weren't drinking, didn't smoke and were not loud at all.
I thought that you were referring to persons that you consider to be DIs. Sorry if I misunderstood your comment, but there have been several posters on these DI threads who do not even play craps, and they have made similar remarks about loud obnoxious dice "setters" who take too long to shoot. The actual situation of someone trying to influence the dice is completely the opposite of such a description.
Calling DIs "dice setters" is also telltale of such ignorance, and I recall that you used that term.
Quote: petroglyphCould you share with me what fundamental concepts you think I don't understand?
If I misinterpreted your comment, then I was wrong, and there is nothing to share.
Quote: petroglyphYou do seem to take umbridge if anyone mentions that di may not be real. I [again] can't understand why. Why does it matter?
I don't care whether or not someone mentions that DI may not be real.
I do get offended and sometimes react when the more thoughtless and shallow members of this forum gang up on and viciously attack an individual poster who is earnestly trying to discuss and explore the possibility of DI (or any other method).
Also, it seems that the overwhelming percentage of the most worthless, non-contributing and personal-attack type of posts come from the DI naysayer camp, and I think that anything that can be done to counter such venomous verbal noise is worthwhile.
Quote: petroglyphI also don't understand why you or the other guy or two are the final arbiter's of what constitutes influence. I'm sure there are other definitions. Have you considered that there might be some "so called di's" out there that just don't want in this stupid argument?
I can't imagine what made you think that I consider myself an arbiter of what constitutes dice influence.
Certainly, there is more than one definition/approach to dice influencing, and no doubt most of the DIs out there don't want any attention on this forum nor anywhere else. Actually, most of those who insist on a single definition of dice influencing are members of the naysayer camp.
Quote: petroglyphAt this point someone would have to be masochistic to insinuate anything other than random events.
Couldn't agree with you more. The peanut gallery here is unabashedly sadistic.
Quote: tuppIt doesn't try to show that dice influencing is possible.
The comment was a simple analogy merely demonstrating that dice influencing is as difficult as a pitcher trying to throw strikes from the center field fence. The pitcher can be the most skilled in the major leagues, but, nevertheless, his consistency of throwing strikes will be low. Likewise, a DI could have "major league" skills, but he won't be able to throw a point number on demand (no matter how much you insist he should be able to).
Don't know if I have any more energy to further help you understand this basic concept.
Well this is good. Now you're saying that dice control is about as likely as throwing a strike from the center field wall. Excellent. I think you'll get wide agreement with this.
Quote: tuppI will be happy to make a video of a controlled throw, as long as you provide the DI.
You surprise me. I thought you and Ahigh were going to do it this Tuesday night? I guess you realize now you can't.
Quote: AlanMendelsonNow you're saying that dice control is about as likely as throwing a strike from the center field wall.
No. That is an oversimplification and that is not what I am saying.
I am saying that perfect dice throws are as difficult as a pitcher trying to throw a strike from the center field wall. The thing is, a DI only needs one perfect toss in about 50 rolls to get an edge, which makes DI more "likely."
As you may recall, I just posted, "Skill is one thing. Difficulty of a task is another thing. Required consistency to gain an edge is yet another thing..."
It might also help to go back in the thread and carefully read this post.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou surprise me. I thought you and Ahigh were going to do it this Tuesday night?
Huh? That's news to me. What made you think that?
Quote: AhighExtraordinary luck and the ability to influence the dice are statistically indistinguishable from one another.
Even if someone with a bird brain admitted that it had been proven to them that they could see the influence from a method of bouncing, the statistics are the same.
The proof lies within performance a statistically improbably feat routinely.
These discussions are pointless. Analogies for the discussion of what it would take to "prove" to an individual are merely a waste of time.
No, not a waste of time. Just throw the dice enough times. Use the scientific method.
Do you think that cancer researchers and their double blind experiments to show that certain drugs worked or didn't work just quit because they beleived that the results from the placebo vs the drug were statistically indistinguishable? No. They design an experiment with a certain goal, execute the experiment, and publish the results. Of course, they are well funded and make a lot of money for their drug company or university if successful (which is why even the results of these are biased at times, which is why they have peer review).
The craps experiment is a simple experiment. With enough throws, the 'variance' will disappear. The problem is that the results don't show success, and people give up, and instead go to the craps table and win.
Would you believe the above quote is from PAGE ONE and this is PAGE TWENTY-Four ... in between you got hash and you got re-hash.Quote: NareedNo hostility. But also no arguments. If there is proof, just show it. Otherwise I'm not interesting in rehashing the subject yet again.
In all the history of craps no one has ever produced a professional craps player. All the dealers and box men nationwide have never found one and no one has ever stepped forward as a successful pro player. And no casino has ever banned a Dice Controller for winning, only for slow play!
In all the history of craps, there is NO PROOF that an individual has achieved a true edge against the casino via dice setting / DI; stated differently, no individual has been tested and objectively proven to be able to intentionally and regularly influence the outcome of a roll.
I would welcome proof ... not anecdotal stories about mythical captains of craps and hoary chestnuts about pitching from center field ... to the contrary.
To be fair, nobody has ever conclusively proven that Bigfoot and The Easter Bunny do not exist, either.
So much faith, so little basis ...
Quote: AhighYeah, I don't think the world will ever know. Oh well.
Cheer up.
With the help of Hard Science, you may well be able to prove that The Easter Bunny really exists.
You'll need a carrot to use as bait, an old stovepipe top hat to capture him, and a stick with a string to activate the trap.
"He's got ... High Hopes ..."
Quote: MrVCheer up.
With the help of Hard Science, you may well be able to prove that The Easter Bunny really exists.
You'll need a carrot to use as bait, an old stovepipe top hat to capture him, and a stick with a string to activate the trap.
"He's got ... High Hopes ..."
Are you on drugs? On a very serious note, the people, such as yourself, that typify the antagonistic post on this forum reflect very poorly on the WOV and even the internet at large.
I have enjoyed the extra time not doing shows or worrying about what you guys think though. But seriously, your comment isn't worth the calories you spent pressing keys.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13His comment wastes the same calories yours do when you think you can influence hard numbers with your throws. Both comemnts are laughable.
ZCore13
Are you talking about my published data? Or have you become an expert on my thoughts now?
The data is the data. I don't know of any other throw data as rigorously presented as the data I have presented.
Comparing the comments above to the data I published as equally worthless is a complete flail on your part to make any point at all.
Your comments, to me, are not laughable. They are insulting.
1. Is this a true statement? How is it true?Quote: tuppa DI only needs one perfect toss in about 50 rolls to get an edge
2. Is this the consensus among the "precision dice shooter community" as to what defines an acceptable Dice Influencer?
Basically, the edge on the passline is about 1/72 or so. So with no odds at all and only a pass line bet, if you could GUARANTEE a single win on one out of 72 or better throws and the only bet you had was a pass line bet, you could overcome the edge.
On average, the house edge, in effect, is like getting a win on a passline bet once every 72 or maybe 71 throws. Just like a single zero roulette wheel is one out of 37.
This isn't how DI people look at things, I think this is how the math guys look at things.
Stick in max odds, and the requirements are even less though to overcome the edge.
It's a tiny hurdle is one point that hopefully we can all agree on.
So tiny, in fact, that good luck often leads people to believe they have an edge they don't have. Because it doesn't take much good luck to win in this game with such a low overall house edge.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13That might be the best post you've ever made on this subject. The last paragraph says more in 38 words than all your posts on all the DI threads.
For someone with such a limited view on the subject as yourself, I will agree with you.
There are others who are not so closed minded though. I don't do all this for you, Zcore.
Ahigh's so-called research is meaningless, completely worthless, because he has been unable to have a bonafide precision shooter step up to the plate and toss em in from center field.
No, it is just him and some wannabes, all of whom demonstrate ... are you ready ... randomness.
Really, if I want to watch random rollers I'll just watch a game of craps, anywhere, any time.
Find your Bigfoot ... insert your probes ... tape it ... then discuss.
Otherwise, what's the point?
Because ya'll need something else to debate.
Quote: FleaStiffAnd no casino has ever banned a Dice Controller for winning, only for slow play!
I didn't play slowly and I ran into trouble at NYNY, MGM and Bellagio. I was winning... but Im no controller. However, my dice LOOKED like they were controlled.
Quote: MrVAhigh's so-called research is meaningless, completely worthless
You sound like a loser. Is it possible that you've lost more money gambling than you could afford to lose?
Whether my research is meaningless or not, you sure sound like someone who has some personal issues with advantage play on craps.
Remind me again, what is your game of choice? Are you a lifetime winner at that game?
I have been taking your comments personally, but I never considered that maybe your comments are more about you than about me.
It's obvious that my work is not worthless. So something else is going on here...
Quote: AlanMendelsonI didn't play slowly and I ran into trouble at NYNY, MGM and Bellagio. I was winning... but Im no controller. However, my dice LOOKED like they were controlled.
Where's your evidence of how your "dice LOOKED like they were controlled."
Was this "look" in slow motion, or with the naked eye at the casino?
Do you get video, or just making comments from memory.
It seems to me like very few people who take issue with what I am doing can back up their talk.
SHOW ME DON'T TELL ME.
You are an expert in your own mind, Alan. At least you have that much!
Quote: rxwineDon't know if Ahigh continues his research.
Thanks for the suggestions. Those are some neat ideas.
I wish I had more time to do this stuff, but lots of things are going on with me that prevent me from spending as much time as I would like doing shows and posting on this forum.
Thanks.
Quote: AhighThanks for the suggestions. Those are some neat ideas.
I wish I had more time to do this stuff, but lots of things are going on with me that prevent me from spending as much time as I would like doing shows and posting on this forum.
Thanks.
Well, when you do get some more time we can never get enough of watching random rolls on video and reading fairytale posts in this forum. Until then we'll try to keep busy in other sections of the forum... like ball bounce predicting in Roulette, progressive betting systems that create +EV games and positive thought mind control of the Big 6 Wheel.
ZCore13
