Senior Center Craps Event

A senior citizen community center takes many seniors (by bus) to a local casino every day during the year.
Most seniors just like to get out, walk around and enjoy the entertainment value and some free drinks and food offered by the local casino.

A new director of events from the center
comes up with an idea to add even more fun and excitement for each visit and
presents it to the board of directors for approval.

New Director
"The local craps game is $1 minimum.
So one senior each day will be given $1 to play craps.
They can bet the pass line (or the don't pass line) for a max of 30 games at $1 each game.
All winnings, when there are some, are given back to the center.
It will make their stay at the casino even more enjoyable.
I think it is a great idea!"

The Board
What?
They start with just $1??
And they can play a max 30 games??
They all will bust out very quickly and we will be out $300 just so a few seniors can say they gambled with other peoples money. (OPM)
You have to be nuts??

The Director
"Here is the analysis for this idea.
It was analyzed at the local high school and the math teacher there gives this info..."
Not now...

The poll is for these 3 questions. (choices have been rounded)
1) Out of 300 seniors (at a cost of $300 to the senior citizen community)
how many on average will be able to make all 30 bets in one session visit?

2) What would be the average number of games they could play before complete ruin (and had a good time)
or surviving to make 30 total $1 wagers and had a fantastic time?

2) After the 300 seniors have all played one session each, about a years time,
what would be the expected loss for the community center?

What does your gut tell you??

Not asking how to do the math, but you can show if you wish.
My gut was not right. I used simulation and the Markov Chain approach.
No I am not the local high school math teacher.

What do you think of the new Events Directors idea?

Sounds like a pretty wild and crazy senior center, I like it.
Bunch of hypothetical's there.

If they are limited to the pass/don't pass, it seems the
chance's are obvious? Especially if they are going to parlay on wins
up to the 30 games.

The chances of them having fun are better than doubling the
bankroll.

Good luck to 'em. Will they be rolling?

Stakeholders:
Casino... right now the bus seems to deliver Seniors who simply want "an outing" or a "field day" ... sing, get a buffet coupon, maybe pull a few handles on a one armed bandit and await the return bus to the senior center.
There does not seem to be a core element of craps players or any other dedicated gamblers though perhaps I've misread your comments.

Now on any one game, some will be tapped out promptly some will stay the course for quite a while, but no one will miss the bus back or anything so it seems an okay idea.

What the Senior Center is doing is staking them to a once a month low limit game rather than a non-goal oriented "outing" of songs and modest gambling.

The Casino will most likely enjoy a busload of geezers who gamble far more than a busload of geezers who sing, eat and mill about aimlessly killing time until the bus departs. The Casino will perhaps gain from this but they sure won't lose... I doubt the table is considered premium space and the crew is there anyway, so its good for the casino.

The Bus Company might benefit but I don't see how. Its the Senior Center that gets the buffet tickets given to them, not the bus company.

The Seniors themselves get their one dollar a day "allowance" that they then use at the craps game once a month ... and still get to sing enroute to the casino and get a free meal and try the flashing lights on the slot machines. Will some finish the craps game and wander around rather than stay to watch? Sure, but they do that anyway.

So the only question is just how much "craps playing" is the Senior Center buying at the rate of one dollar a day per person?
As presented, the questions seems to be one dollar a day per ONE selected person to play craps that day. So its thirty dollars for one person while others watch??? I'm not sure.

Usually the bus arrival, lunch and bus departure don't leave much time anyway... so lets allow three hours of gaming at the usual ten percent risk of ruin without tips to dealers or waitresses. Its obvious that there is a three to four hour time period for playing craps and not losing all the money, so whether its one person or the whole group... you still have a negative expectation but not an expectation of ruin for ninety percent of the time.

Now 300 Seniors getting a dollar a day would be quite a dent in the budget, but ONE selected Senior doing the playing to "interest the others" would be cheaper, but then you have gawkers just milling around doing zilch. So I guess it would be better to go to the casino and sell the casino 300 well funded gamblers? With the money going to the Center rather than the player... the incentive is less but the outing might still be enjoyable.

Assuming the story is theoretical and not actually planned. If not, I think it humiliating to bring people under these circumstances as well as taking advantage of the casino if they are offering any incentives to the people to come. The center should pay for a Las Vegas night at the center if real.

Better than a game of bingo.

Tell them they have to parlay each win until they lose or are forced to get paid. They will more likely hit the house limit than win the same amount on a lottery ticket.

Better than Picture Bingo. The seniors can't remember letters and numbers. So they play picture bingo.

Refrigerator House Dog Car etc.

Funny, but also so sad.