variations on 'anything but 7' or 'iron cross'
March 21st, 2013 at 2:49:49 AM
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Hello and thanks in advance for any assistance/advice anyone can offer me
I was playing craps now and then back in the late 90's but I was a total tourist... I shot craps last weekend for the first time since then, and it stirred an interest to learn more about the game
Back in the day I wasn't playing serious, but after playing a few times, I stumbled onto the concept that placing point bets while simultaneously betting the field as the best bet combo I could make (At least it seem to make sense in 1997). At the time I was just laying bets on 6/8 (w/max odd's) while alternating placing field bets and Don't Pass depending on how I felt. It worked out ok and I remember being satisfied with my winnings.
I started reading up on craps and discovered I was playing a scaled back variation of 'anything but 7' or the 'iron cross'. After doing more reading about it, I started wondering if a couple ideas made sense, but I don't want to do it with a trial by fire and thought I'd post here first.
My first scenario is:
Play $50/Max odds on 5 & $60/Max odds on 6/8
Play $25 in the field (2 x's 2 & 12 x's 3) every roll if I didn't win the previous one
I'm only thinking of placing this bet when the point is 4 or 10. My rational is when 4/10 come out as the point, a round should statistically last the longest and potentially producing a fairly safe pay out. My thinking about only playing 5/6/8 is because any other number will pay out on the Field and it limits my losses if someone 7 out's.
My 2nd scenario is:
Play $50/max odds on 5 & $60/Max odds on 6/8
Play $25 in the Field (2 x's 2 & 12 x's 3) every roll if I didn't win the previous one
Play Don't pass (Max Odds)
I would play this every roll and my rational of only placing on 5/6/8 are the same as above. My problem with this scenario is I'm uncertain how much would be the optimal bet on Don't pass. I'm not familiar enough with the math involved to determine the optimal bet, as the Don't Pass payout percentages (Or the Max Odds payout) differ on the point. I've played around with laying down different amounts based on the point number, but I was hoping someone could share their experience here. So far with testing this on various online craps sites, the weakest part of this bet involves the point being made quickly and losing on Don't Pass
If anyone could offer me any advice if these systems make any sense, or offer any constructive criticism I would be grateful.
Also, is there any free automated craps applications/programs I could download to test my ideas? I've played these systems on a couple free online websites and they seem like they work fairly well as long as I had a large bank roll ($10,000), but I've only gotten several hundred rolls in and would like to test it with several thousand. I found a couple of applications that cost money but the web sites seemed unprofessional and I didn't feel comfortable with entering my CC #.
once again... thanks to anyone that can offer any advice!
I was playing craps now and then back in the late 90's but I was a total tourist... I shot craps last weekend for the first time since then, and it stirred an interest to learn more about the game
Back in the day I wasn't playing serious, but after playing a few times, I stumbled onto the concept that placing point bets while simultaneously betting the field as the best bet combo I could make (At least it seem to make sense in 1997). At the time I was just laying bets on 6/8 (w/max odd's) while alternating placing field bets and Don't Pass depending on how I felt. It worked out ok and I remember being satisfied with my winnings.
I started reading up on craps and discovered I was playing a scaled back variation of 'anything but 7' or the 'iron cross'. After doing more reading about it, I started wondering if a couple ideas made sense, but I don't want to do it with a trial by fire and thought I'd post here first.
My first scenario is:
Play $50/Max odds on 5 & $60/Max odds on 6/8
Play $25 in the field (2 x's 2 & 12 x's 3) every roll if I didn't win the previous one
I'm only thinking of placing this bet when the point is 4 or 10. My rational is when 4/10 come out as the point, a round should statistically last the longest and potentially producing a fairly safe pay out. My thinking about only playing 5/6/8 is because any other number will pay out on the Field and it limits my losses if someone 7 out's.
My 2nd scenario is:
Play $50/max odds on 5 & $60/Max odds on 6/8
Play $25 in the Field (2 x's 2 & 12 x's 3) every roll if I didn't win the previous one
Play Don't pass (Max Odds)
I would play this every roll and my rational of only placing on 5/6/8 are the same as above. My problem with this scenario is I'm uncertain how much would be the optimal bet on Don't pass. I'm not familiar enough with the math involved to determine the optimal bet, as the Don't Pass payout percentages (Or the Max Odds payout) differ on the point. I've played around with laying down different amounts based on the point number, but I was hoping someone could share their experience here. So far with testing this on various online craps sites, the weakest part of this bet involves the point being made quickly and losing on Don't Pass
If anyone could offer me any advice if these systems make any sense, or offer any constructive criticism I would be grateful.
Also, is there any free automated craps applications/programs I could download to test my ideas? I've played these systems on a couple free online websites and they seem like they work fairly well as long as I had a large bank roll ($10,000), but I've only gotten several hundred rolls in and would like to test it with several thousand. I found a couple of applications that cost money but the web sites seemed unprofessional and I didn't feel comfortable with entering my CC #.
once again... thanks to anyone that can offer any advice!
March 21st, 2013 at 9:26:02 AM
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The short answer you will get is to multiply the bet amount times the edge per roll per bet to get your long term cost to figure out how good the bet is.
The most expensive leg is the field at 2.78% per roll assuming that it pays triple on the 12.
Avoiding placing the 5 and 9 for a 4.00% edge over the course of 36/10 or 3.6 rolls (4/3.6 = 1.11% edge per roll) saves you from those higher edges.
The best edges assuming you are not gambling 3 or more hours a day like me are generally just to avoid the field.
This is the math talking!
If you get advice from people who play the game more often like people who live here and watch dice for hours and hours a day, the field can yield a player advantage with very little volatility if you are lucky enough to have a higher ratio of six faces and one faces to show up. This isn't the math talking, this is short term variance as it would be described by the math guys. But some other guys will tell you that when you start seeing a lot of 6-1 seven outs and lots of hi's and lo's and yo's and ace-deuce, the field can be your friend with as much as a 2% player edge over the course of several hundred rolls of the dice (IE: a full day of grinding the field every roll can win you 7 units from 350 bets!).
The math guys will tell you that if you grind the field every roll for 350 bets you should be losing 10 units instead of making 7 on average.
But at least there is more than one way to look at things.
If you want an approach to try, count the number of faces coming each for each die as the dice are rolled. If you have 10% more six faces and one faces compared with the two through five faces, then for those observed rolls with those face counts, you have in theory what is a player edge in the field. If you have more than 10% of six faces compared with the average number of two through five faces, you can have a huge edge in the field.
This is a very controversial approach to the game for this forum as it is not based on math but based on the idea that the dice can come up with certain faces more often than other faces. There are lengthy discussions on how this might happen, but you cannot argue with the fact that if it happens over thousands of rolls, it is quite likely exploitable.
Good luck, and in general, don't gamble more than you can afford to lose and have fun! Do it your own way and win. Even if you had a terrible edge, winning bets never suck!
The one other thing that I will say about gambling against the seven is that the seven can and will come up one out of four rolls for long period of time and then disappear for long periods of time. Another entirely sound betting approach is to only bet low edge bets and randomly pick one or the other. IE: bet a come, bet a don't come, bet a six, bet an eight. lay odds on a DC, etc. No rhyme or reason and adding your own randomness while maintaining a low edge takes the intelligence out of the bet selection and focuses strictly on the edge allowing all else to chance.
This is probably my most common way to gamble when I want a fair deal to take a chance to win. Random low-edge bet selection! The fewer bets active simultaneously the higher your chance of winning instead of just reducing your volatility and increasing your chance of pushing or having a smaller win.
The most expensive leg is the field at 2.78% per roll assuming that it pays triple on the 12.
Avoiding placing the 5 and 9 for a 4.00% edge over the course of 36/10 or 3.6 rolls (4/3.6 = 1.11% edge per roll) saves you from those higher edges.
The best edges assuming you are not gambling 3 or more hours a day like me are generally just to avoid the field.
This is the math talking!
If you get advice from people who play the game more often like people who live here and watch dice for hours and hours a day, the field can yield a player advantage with very little volatility if you are lucky enough to have a higher ratio of six faces and one faces to show up. This isn't the math talking, this is short term variance as it would be described by the math guys. But some other guys will tell you that when you start seeing a lot of 6-1 seven outs and lots of hi's and lo's and yo's and ace-deuce, the field can be your friend with as much as a 2% player edge over the course of several hundred rolls of the dice (IE: a full day of grinding the field every roll can win you 7 units from 350 bets!).
The math guys will tell you that if you grind the field every roll for 350 bets you should be losing 10 units instead of making 7 on average.
But at least there is more than one way to look at things.
If you want an approach to try, count the number of faces coming each for each die as the dice are rolled. If you have 10% more six faces and one faces compared with the two through five faces, then for those observed rolls with those face counts, you have in theory what is a player edge in the field. If you have more than 10% of six faces compared with the average number of two through five faces, you can have a huge edge in the field.
This is a very controversial approach to the game for this forum as it is not based on math but based on the idea that the dice can come up with certain faces more often than other faces. There are lengthy discussions on how this might happen, but you cannot argue with the fact that if it happens over thousands of rolls, it is quite likely exploitable.
Good luck, and in general, don't gamble more than you can afford to lose and have fun! Do it your own way and win. Even if you had a terrible edge, winning bets never suck!
The one other thing that I will say about gambling against the seven is that the seven can and will come up one out of four rolls for long period of time and then disappear for long periods of time. Another entirely sound betting approach is to only bet low edge bets and randomly pick one or the other. IE: bet a come, bet a don't come, bet a six, bet an eight. lay odds on a DC, etc. No rhyme or reason and adding your own randomness while maintaining a low edge takes the intelligence out of the bet selection and focuses strictly on the edge allowing all else to chance.
This is probably my most common way to gamble when I want a fair deal to take a chance to win. Random low-edge bet selection! The fewer bets active simultaneously the higher your chance of winning instead of just reducing your volatility and increasing your chance of pushing or having a smaller win.
aahigh.com
March 21st, 2013 at 3:45:09 PM
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What you really mean is Place the 5 for $50 and $60 each on the Place6 & Place8.Quote: ktyson9426Play $50/Max odds on 5 & $60/Max odds on 6/8
Play $25 in the field (2 x's 2 & 12 x's 3) every roll if I didn't win the previous one
It may last the longest but not by much on average.Quote: ktyson9426I'm only thinking of placing this bet when the point is 4 or 10.
My rational is when 4/10 come out as the point, a round should statistically last the longest and potentially producing a fairly safe pay out.
The average number of rolls to resolve a point of
4 or 10 = 36/9 or 4
5 or 9 = 36/10 or 3.6
6 or 8 = 36/11 or 3.27
Not even a 1 roll difference.
Yep.Quote: ktyson9426Also, is there any free automated craps applications/programs I could download to test my ideas?
WinCraps
For windows pcs and free to have and to hold.
Cost $20 if you wants to use it for high speed simulations,
but you may not need to do that as it can automatically roll the dice for you up to millions of rolls.
more on the IC here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/7800-anything-but-7/
Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
