superrick
superrick
Joined: Jul 14, 2010
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March 19th, 2013 at 11:54:42 AM permalink
Quote:


teddys
It's not a hoax, the 1.4% house edge is real! (Whatever happened to tuttigym?)



Only in the long run, and you will never be at a table for that long run, you would most likely be broke before that happened. The Vig on your bets would eat you alive over time. All math guys only look at the numbers; they never take anything else into consideration.

If we took a survey of the guys on this board that plays craps and writes about the math of the game, it would come as no surprise to me that most of the math guys never play craps. Their math would get in their way, one of the reasons Iím making that statement is very simple. Their math tells them itís a negative game, why in the world would they ever play a negative game?
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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March 19th, 2013 at 12:07:21 PM permalink
Quote: superrick

Only in the long run, and you will never be at a table for that long run, you would most likely be broke before that happened. The Vig on your bets would eat you alive over time. All math guys only look at the numbers; they never take anything else into consideration.

If your playing bets that have a vig of 0.50%-0.20%, yes, most likely you will be broke, but you are almost as likely to not be broke, or even be ahead.

Quote:

If we took a survey of the guys on this board that plays craps and writes about the math of the game, it would come as no surprise to me that most of the math guys never play craps. Their math would get in their way, one of the reasons Iím making that statement is very simple. Their math tells them itís a negative game, why in the world would they ever play a negative game?

I play craps. I'm a "math guy." The Wizard plays craps. MathExtremist plays craps. Doc plays craps. Miplet plays craps. I think they all consider themselves "math guys." We play because its fun and you have a good chance to win, even in the long run. It's one of the better gambles in the casino. Here's a story: at the Plaza last night, two newbs were playing next to me, betting red chips exclusively. They started aping my bets, and betting come bets every roll (no odds). A guy went on an absolute heater, and the newbs cleaned up. One of them said, "This is way better than slots!" Sure, the game will take your money over time (especially not betting odds), but the slots would have taken their $20 even quicker, with no chance to parlay it into $50 or $60 like they did. That's why craps is a great game.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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March 19th, 2013 at 12:17:04 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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March 19th, 2013 at 12:23:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Most AP's I know are not "math guys."

A math guy is someone who understands the mathematical underpinnings of the game and how it causes them to win or lose more over the long term. For example, knowing why and how card counting works, or why a video poker game that pays back 99.54% can be positive at some times.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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March 19th, 2013 at 12:26:35 PM permalink
Quote: superrick

New Jersey fines Caesars Entertainment $225,000 in Las Vegas case

Read more: http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2013/mar/18/nj-caesars-high-roller-settlement/#ixzz2O0QbwnrC

This story is brought to you by the Associated Press and Las Vegas Sun

Letís see Caesars won somewhere around $200 million at Caesars Palace and the Rio Hotel Casino in Las Vegas

Then Watanabe refused to pay $14.7 million so he was indicted by the grand jury, but criminal charges were dropped, after he settled with the company.

Now Caesars got to keep the $200 million after they feed him drugs, booze and what ever else they could do to keep him at the tables, and nothing happened to them in NV, but NJ got them on a $250,000 fine.

Iíll take the deal any day of the week if I was Caesars, Please., Please donít tell me that a casino would cheat!



So I just read the entire article that you linked to. Once again, you distort the truth in your own mind and stretch it to cheating. The Casino did not cheat in any way in the case. The only person responsible for drinking and doing drugs is the individual that does it. That's what's wrong with the world these days... not responsibility. It's always someone elses fault. I drink to much at a bar or casino and get in an accident, it's the bar or casinos fault. I get arrested for something, it was my parents fault. I didn't get the education I should have, it's the teachers fault.

Did the Ceasars employees allow the guy to have drugs on property, maybe. Did they serve him alcohol, sure. Did they force him to take the drugs or drink too much, no and no.

So in reply to your final sentence, I am telling you they did not cheat and no major U.S. Casino would knowingly cheat.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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March 19th, 2013 at 12:28:30 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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March 19th, 2013 at 12:36:01 PM permalink
I play craps and I'm a professional math guy. In fact, one reason I'm a professional math guy is because I started playing craps and, not fully understanding the odds, taught myself probability theory. But that's a different story.

The reason I play a negative game is because I think it's fun. I know what my theo is for a few hours of dice. It's on par with a ball game or a concert and, unlike those activities, I have a decent shot of coming out ahead. All entertainment is a negative game if all you look at is the cost. That's axiomatic: if something is a positive game, it's called "investing" or "work," not "entertainment." But entertainment is about trading money and time for something you consider fun, and in that way it's not negative at all (hopefully). I just took a great vacation; it cost a lot of money but it was totally worth it. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.

For me, knowing the odds makes gambling more fun, not less. That's not true for everyone, but the idea that "the math gets in the way" is only held by people who don't understand that some people like learning about their pastimes. Similarly, some people keep score at baseball games. They don't have to -- they want to. For them, it makes going to a game more fun.

I'm also a strong proponent of responsible gambling. I believe understanding the numbers helps dispel many common misconceptions and superstitions about how games work, and I believe an educated gambler is more likely to avoid problem gambling behavior.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
tupp
tupp
Joined: Feb 9, 2012
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March 19th, 2013 at 12:39:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Just because I think playing a -EV game like craps is silly doesn't mean others do.


Of course, the conclusion that craps is an absolutely negative EV game must assume that dice influencing is absolutely impossible.

So, it would be a circular argument to say that dice influencing is impossible because craps is a negative EV game.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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March 19th, 2013 at 12:47:28 PM permalink
Quote: tupp

Of course, the conclusion that craps is an absolutely negative EV game must assume that dice influencing is absolutely impossible.

So, it would be a circular argument to say that dice influencing is impossible because craps is a negative EV game.


I don't think anyone's making that argument. Nobody debates that craps is a negative EV game under the assumption of equally-likely die faces (at least, I hope not) and you can compute the change in EV for any bet based on a theoretical uneven distribution of die faces. Ahigh has done this already and WinCraps has had that capability for years. The question isn't whether craps would be +EV if you could influence the dice to produce a sufficiently uneven distribution, it's whether that influence is possible in the first place.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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March 19th, 2013 at 12:47:32 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

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