SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010
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March 2nd, 2013 at 8:37:19 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

In theory, identifying bad dice and laying an amount that wins a multiple of $20 is a pretty good bet


That is why measuring it when performing the test again could prove interesting--as well as profitable.
Quote: Ahigh

In the short run, all of this stuff is outweighed by luck and chance.


Tell us about it.
Harley
Harley
Joined: May 13, 2012
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March 14th, 2013 at 7:20:24 PM permalink
as reported by bj21.com:

Quote: bj21.com

Bally’s Tunica accused of cheating patrons in drawing



http://bj21.com/misc/files/EleftheriouCivilComplaint.pdf
.... that is simply my opinion .... Ciao, Harley ... Link = http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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March 14th, 2013 at 8:55:32 PM permalink
" $15,000
cash
for the $15,000 free slot play he had remai
ning at the time of his
eviction on
June 30, 2012;
and
$5,000 for the enjoyment value of the free slot play "


ROFLMAO
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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March 14th, 2013 at 10:01:33 PM permalink
I wish they would have revealed the machine they accidentally set with an over 100% payback. Hopefully they refuse to settle the case and they get a judgement, so everyone knows what happened. I doubt they will do anything but take a settlement no matter what. The casino personnel have seemed to handle themselves in a low classed fashion though.
Follow me: https://www.heavensgate.com/
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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March 14th, 2013 at 10:22:34 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Quote: Ahigh

In theory, identifying bad dice and laying an amount that wins a multiple of $20 is a pretty good bet


That is why measuring it when performing the test again could prove interesting--as well as profitable.
Quote: Ahigh

In the short run, all of this stuff is outweighed by luck and chance.


Tell us about it.



With these face weights, there's no exposure on the lay bets to speak of...



The formulas I used were chance of 7 occurring time 20/31 for five and nine, 20/25 for 6 and 8 and 20/41 for four and ten (vig up front).

Just not working out to anything big enough even with these crazy ratios, the edge with vig up front covers any advantage you might have.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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March 14th, 2013 at 10:26:25 PM permalink
My very first trip to Vegas, I drove to this low dive in North Las Vegas and promptly lost twenty dollars on the Don'ts... that was enough to convince me the place was crooked. So I left and went elsewhere to gamble.
Youthful ignorance can be so entertaining at times.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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March 14th, 2013 at 10:36:55 PM permalink
I know your comment was not intended to be personal, but to clarify, I have taken the position that exposure on the other side of the bets was why the casinos would not do what Harley is suggesting they are doing.

This goes all the way back to September 2011 for me when Harley posted on my board in response to a thread that another member started.

http://forum.goodshooter.com/topic9.html

Harley said about a year and a half ago that my software would prove what he was saying was correct.

All I have been doing is the due diligence.

What many people are doing now is neglecting to realize that Harley and I have been back and forth on this issue for well into 18 months now.

The above excel chart and my simulation software are, in fact, demonstrating that the resulting edge is not on the don't pass side of things as much as in the field.

An unexpected observation. But commission up front here in Vegas really allows the house to shield exposure on the lay bets for these funky dice.

It's true irony that these theoretical dice that Harley describes have exposure in the field more than any other place on the felt.

When you contrast my position today from that of 18 months ago in the above linked post, you may realize that many people are simply not up to speed on how these theoretically biased dice do prevent exposure while increasing the holds on the table .. with the caveat .. of the field .. in general.

I'll say it all again .. this is all theory.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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March 14th, 2013 at 10:52:00 PM permalink
Here I added in the four legs of the horn bet. More theoretical exposure there than on the lay bets for these 350 roll distributions.

There is an absolute irony that the highest edge bet has exposure from the face counts that came up on this recording session.

If all you did was counted the six face counts and the total roll count, (count two things instead of 6) you could do the counts in your head and bet heavy field and boxcars.

I have a story about how I saw some folks doing this at the Cosmo and walking with over six grand each.

Maybe there was a reason these smart white guys were making such "stupid" bets.

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12228-any-12-12-12-craps-get-togethers-planned/2/#post202223



Maybe even counting boxcars and the total number of rolls would be even easier and almost as effective if you just wanted to fool around with a crazy theoretical strategy based on "too many boxcars."
Harley
Harley
Joined: May 13, 2012
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March 14th, 2013 at 10:58:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

... This goes all the way back to September 2011 for me when Harley posted on my board in response to a thread that another member started.

http://forum.goodshooter.com/topic9.html

Harley said about a year and a half ago that my software would prove what he was saying was correct.

All I have been doing is the due diligence.

What many people are doing now is neglecting to realize that Harley and I have been back and forth on this issue for well into 18 months now...



That was a fun read down memory lane and how we have evolved with new data, information and brainstorming ideas from the Wizards' site and members !!!

... big kudos and credits to Wizards' members as well as GoodShooter.com for allowing an open discussion of the Biased dice issue ...... SuperRick and I have been banned from Heavy's axispowercraps.com message board and DiceInstitute.com for trying to discuss the subject of Biased dice
.... that is simply my opinion .... Ciao, Harley ... Link = http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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March 14th, 2013 at 11:02:10 PM permalink
There are still some members of this forum who refuse to even contemplate the possibility of these theoretical dice existing anywhere.

It wasn't until I got these counts that I really got serious about doing more numbers.

Anybody else out there who is just trusting the math and saying it can't happen, trust and know that I have been there myself. It's quite possible that you're just behind...

I would love to think that you're right though. Trust me I would. It's just unfortunate that I have to go and do this work. But I sort of have to really. I have been putting it off for far too long.

Those who put me down as having problems or being stupid or whatever, I don't blame you for thinking that.

I used to think that about Harley myself. It drove me nuts the stuff that Harley would say.

So I understand. Yeah, read that post...

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